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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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A

Allard

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I think Obama loses if UE is 8.5 or higher, regardless of where the numbers are heading. He's had 4 years, people have lost belief that he knows what he's doing. Mix in another debt ceiling fight, high gas prices, Eurozone doubts, etc and I don't see a path to victory.

He's going to be the democrat party's Bush in terms of being completely ignored by future candidates, despite parroting his policies.
Click to expand...

That is only the case if the opponent is someone people can work with and are willing to give a chance. Personally I think unemployment would need to spike at this point for any of the current crop of republican candidates to have a chance much less win. You need to add in the simple fact that current opponent field is so weak that no matter the economic climate may end up being, it just is not harsh enough for people to elect anyone in this group. Romney is the only one with a shot, and each day he looks more and more like a poison candidate you don't want to be affiliated with. Even with all Obama's leadership falls, he is still a likeable person who at least can eloquently share a positive opinion, the same, quite honestly, cannot be be said for Romney who comes off as phoney at best and a cut throat slimeball at worst. Maybe if they had a compelling candidate that wasn't so politically damage and had a resonating message with the GE they might be able to win, but they don't, and it doesn't look like they will for the near future.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I think Obama loses if UE is 8.5 or higher, regardless of where the numbers are heading. He's had 4 years, people have lost belief that he knows what he's doing. Mix in another debt ceiling fight, high gas prices, Eurozone doubts, etc and I don't see a path to victory.

He's going to be the democrat party's Bush in terms of being completely ignored by future candidates, despite parroting his policies.
Click to expand...
I think Obama loses if the economy is losing steam around the election period. If we're seeing improvement, at even moderate pace, I think he wins. Romney will be a poor candidate, and Obama's organization is formidable; his electoral map is still a favorable one to boot.

If the economy takes a hit the way it did last summer during the debt showdown, then his odds worsen considerably. But looking at the calendar, I don't see opportunity for the GOP to inflict such wounds so readily. The only real shot is with the extension of tax cuts and UI benefits shortly, and considering how badly it backfired on them last time, I'm not worried on that one.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
I think Obama loses if the economy is losing steam around the election period. If we're seeing improvement, at even moderate pace, I think he wins. Romney will be a poor candidate, and Obama's organization is formidable; his electoral map is still a favorable one to boot.

If the economy takes a hit the way it did last summer during the debt showdown, then his odds worsen considerably. But looking at the calendar, I don't see opportunity for the GOP to inflict such wounds so readily. The only real shot is with the extension of tax cuts and UI benefits shortly, and considering how badly it backfired on them last time, I'm not worried on that one.
Click to expand...

I'm at work and can't look up the article, but didn't the CBO project we'll hit the debt ceiling in late 2011? If it happens in August or October...yeah
 
R

Rocket Scientist

Member
Come on guys, Obama has this in the bag, economy or no economy. People are disappointed, but not disappointed enough to vote for the party of no. The negative ads against republicans and their shenanigans are going to be gold. You're all underestimating how much ammo there is against them after these 4 years.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Claims for first-time unemployment benefits fall




initial-claims-job-fair.gi.top.jpg





NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- First-time claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, a sign of more gradual improvement in the job market. The Labor Department reported Thursday that 367,000 people filed for initial unemployment benefits in the week ended Jan. 28, down 12,000 from a revised reading of 379,000 claims the week before.

Before Obama even took office, America had lost 4.4 million jobs. Track his progress since then. Initial claims are a measure of applications for unemployment benefits, not all of which end up getting approved by the government. Of those who have been approved in the past, about 3.4 million people filed for their second week of unemployment benefits or more in the week ended Jan. 21, the most recent data available.

Jobless claims are considered a key indicator of the job market's strength. The number can be volatile from week to week though, so economists often look at the four-week moving average to smooth out choppiness. Lately, that figure has been on a gradual decline, and is back at levels seen in early 2008 -- before the worst of the jobs crisis struck. "The trend remains friendly and supportive of further gains in hiring," Jennifer Lee, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets said in a note.

Economists still caution that the job market is improving at a slow pace.
The government's highly anticipated jobs report is due out Friday morning, and is expected to show the U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in January, according to economists surveyed by CNNMoney.

That would mark a slowdown in hiring versus December, when 200,000 jobs were created. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 8.6
​

######################

After seeing this morning's initial UE benefits numbers I'm guessing tomorrow's jobs report will only show about 100,000 jobs created for the month of January and U.E. to be 8.6%.

What do you think about these numbers Ghal?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I'm at work and can't look up the article, but didn't the CBO project we'll hit the debt ceiling in late 2011? If it happens in August or October...yeah
Click to expand...
They said it would be close to before the next inauguration, not before the election.
CBO predicts that at the end of fiscal year 2013, the debt subject to the overall limit will be just shy of $16.8 trillion. But the debt limit itself stands at $16.4 trillion. The Treasury Department can create some breathing space for itself using a series of extraordinary measures — but those only go so far. So it’s still an open question how far into 2013 the current debt limit will take us — if it gets us there at all.

“There is a risk that the treasury will hit its $16.4 trillion debt limit before the next presidential inauguration,” emails Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi. “It will be close. I suspect the Treasury will have enough accounting wiggle room to get there, but much depends on whether the economy sticks close to script.”

One plausible scenario, then, is that Congress will have to address the debt ceiling issue in its November-December lame-duck session. But that’s exactly when it’s expected to address huge issues, like the expiring Bush tax cuts and the automatic spending cuts locked in by the last debt limit deal. The outcomes of all those debates will hang heavily on the results of the election — a clean win for Obama portends a much different resolution than an Obama victory in which the GOP takes the Senate, let alone a GOP sweep.
Click to expand...

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/01/cbo-well-hit-the-debt-limit-this-year.php


mckmas8808 said:
Claims for first-time unemployment benefits fall

After seeing this morning's initial UE benefits numbers I'm guessing tomorrow's jobs report will only show about 100,000 jobs created for the month of January and U.E. to be 8.6%.

What do you think about these numbers Ghal?
Click to expand...

Encouraging. I had said a few weeks back that I would judge the numbers after the January volatility (due to large seasonal adjustments worked through), and now that they have we're flat to last month. I'd put the number tomorrow between 100k and 200k. I'm hoping for some positive revisions to prior data, but we'll see.
 
W

Wolfgunblood Garopa

Member
Rocket Scientist said:
Come on guys, Obama has this in the bag, economy or no economy. People are disappointed, but not disappointed enough to vote for the party of no. The negative ads against republicans and their shenanigans are going to be gold. You're all underestimating how much ammo there is against them after these 4 years.
Click to expand...

Don't underestimate Trump
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Rocket Scientist said:
Come on guys, Obama has this in the bag, economy or no economy. People are disappointed, but not disappointed enough to vote for the party of no. The negative ads against republicans and their shenanigans are going to be gold. You're all underestimating how much ammo there is against them after these 4 years.
Click to expand...

This is the democrats we're talking about--the party that appeared to have absolutely no political savvy over the last 3 years.
 
R

Rocket Scientist

Member
Plinko said:
This is the democrats we're talking about--the party that appeared to have absolutely no political savvy over the last 3 years.
Click to expand...
True, but they've been doing a bit better lately with the messaging and leveraging. Campaign Obama is also best Obama after all. I think they'll be fine.
 
S

Something Wicked

Member
I think you guys should be looking at unemployment figures and trends for "swing states" more so than the overall national unemployment rates. The unemployment rates of states like New York and Texas are essentially irrelevant, since we already know which "color" certain states will be for any presidential election in the near future.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I think Obama loses if UE is 8.5 or higher, regardless of where the numbers are heading. He's had 4 years, people have lost belief that he knows what he's doing. Mix in another debt ceiling fight, high gas prices, Eurozone doubts, etc and I don't see a path to victory.

He's going to be the democrat party's Bush in terms of being completely ignored by future candidates, despite parroting his policies.
Click to expand...

Will he lose if the unemployment rate is 8.54%?
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Something Wicked said:
I think you guys should be looking at unemployment figures and trends for "swing states" more so than the overall national unemployment rates. The unemployment rates of states like New York and Texas are essentially irrelevant, since we already know which "color" certain states will be for any presidential election in the near future.
Click to expand...

This. California has one of the higher unemployment rates in the US and there is no doubt who's winning that state in November.
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
Cheebo said:
Here is an interesting fact:

There has been no President who has won re-election by a smaller margin than he won his initial election.

If Obama wins re-election by historical standards he'd also have to win by a bigger margin than in 2008.
Click to expand...

I don't see why he wouldn't. Even Republicans don't want to vote for Romney. Usually to beat an incumbent, you need a candidate that excites the base. See Reagan and Clinton in recent political history.

Romney has more in common with Dole and Kerry.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Romney is a gaff machine. Between, "I'm unemployed too", "Corporations are people too", "Wanna bet ten thousand dollars?", "I like being able to fire people", getting paid "a little" amount of money for speeches, and now the whole not caring about poor people thing, he's going to bring the laughs in the general
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
Something Wicked said:
I think you guys should be looking at unemployment figures and trends for "swing states" more so than the overall national unemployment rates. The unemployment rates of states like New York and Texas are essentially irrelevant, since we already know which "color" certain states will be for any presidential election in the near future.
Click to expand...

Well Ohio's unemployment is ticking downward, and we hate our Republican governor.


Officerrob said:
The latest PPP poll has Obama with a 7 point lead over Romney in Ohio
Click to expand...

Not surprising. Romney came to the state and supported Senate Bill 5.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
Officerrob said:
Romney is a gaff machine. Between, "I'm unemployed too", "Corporations are people too", "Wanna bet ten thousand dollars?", "I like being able to fire people", getting paid "a little" amount of money for speeches, and now the whole not caring about poor people thing, he's going to bring the laughs in the general
Click to expand...

Dont forget the "insignificant" amount of money in foreign bank accounts.
 
K

KingK

Member
Officerrob said:
The latest PPP poll has Obama with a 7 point lead over Romney in Ohio
Click to expand...

And didn't he have an even bigger lead in Florida over Romney? Obama only needs one of those two states to win, and could still win without either of them. Obviously a lot can happen between now and November, but it's really hard for me to envision a way in which Obama loses reelection right now.
 
M

Miletius

Member
Romney needs Ohio, Florida, and some New West states to come his way if he's going to have a shot. I don't think it's even possible for him to lose Ohio and have a shot at winning, unless he does something equally unlikely like carrying PA or something like that.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
I'm concerned about Congress, but I think Obama is going to win.

Miletius said:
Romney needs Ohio, Florida, and some New West states to come his way if he's going to have a shot. I don't think it's even possible for him to lose Ohio and have a shot at winning, unless he does something equally unlikely like carrying PA or something like that.
Click to expand...

Romney's done a great job at making Florida difficult for him with his endless anti-immigration comments and Kasich has done a great job at energizing the democratic base in his state. Romney endorsing Issue 5 will also do him no favors. I also hope the "bu-bu-bu-bu Pennsylvania is in play for republicans this year" stops soon. They say it every election and it never happens.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
NihonTiger90 said:
Romney-Trump-Handshake-Endorsement-cropped-proto-custom_28.jpg


Get used to this photo. You'll be seeing it a lot more.
Click to expand...

From Gingrich's campaign? Because as I posted earlier, it appeared that Trump's support actually hurts much more than it helps.

And of course Trump supports him--his tax plan drastically favors the rich.
 
M

Mortrialus

Banned
Media Matters: Fox's Gutfeld On Trump Endorsement: "It's Almost Like Donald Trump Is Uniting America, Which Makes Him The True Hero"

Is it just me, or is everything related to politics getting dumber the past few weeks? I mean you have Romney's historic "I don't care about poor people gaf. They have a safety net." which pissed off conservatives just as much as it pissed off everyone else, you have people hyping Trump, a pretend billionaire, giving his endorsement, to the point of Fox News people calling him "The True Hero who is uniting America". I mean we have had some stupid shit that has happened during the Republican primaries, but this week seems particularly stupid.
 
R

Rocket Scientist

Member
Why does Ohio have such a large population, I thought the state sucked? Could it be true that once you enter... you're stuck forever? But seriously, I couldn't name one city from the state and only after looking up did I recognize Columbus. Non-USA here of course, but still, this is supposedly THE state to watch every single election. You guys and your weird elections, I mean, I can have the most votes and lose! Fancy that. *sips tea*
Tim-E said:
....
Click to expand...
The.... fuck....?
 
M

Miletius

Member
Tim-E said:
Romney's done a great job at making Florida difficult for him with his endless anti-immigration comments and Kasich has done a great job at energizing the democratic base in his state. Romney endorsing Issue 5 will also do him no favors. I also hope the "bu-bu-bu-bu Pennsylvania is in play for republicans this year" stops soon. They say it every election and it never happens.
Click to expand...

Well if he loses Florida he will need Ohio and something else, probably PA in addition to CO, NM, AZ and NV. If he wins Florida but loses Ohio he will need all of the New West, but won't need PA. If he wins both Ohio and FL then he just needs some of those western states to come his way.

So the easiest route will be to concentrate on Ohio and Florida and hope that the high unemployment in FL will net him a win. In Ohio, he'll need to get savvy.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
Rocket Scientist said:
Why does Ohio have such a large population, I thought the state sucked? Could it be true that once you enter... you're stuck forever? But seriously, I couldn't name one city from the state and only after looking up did I recognize Columbus. Non-USA here of course, but still, this is supposedly THE state to watch every single election. You guys and your weird elections, I mean, I can have the most votes and lose! Fancy that. *sips tea*
Click to expand...

I can't speak to the size of it's population, but it's generally an important state because it has a relatively even distribution of demographics. If a candidate wins Ohio, especially by a sizable margin, it's a safe bet he'll do well in the other "swing" states.

...

For someone who has been running for President for the better part of a decade, it's amazing how bad Romney is at it. It's starting to become abundantly clear why he was never given much of a chance in the GE. The guy is just a horrible candidate. He literally never does himself any favors. Comparing him to a used car salesman is an insult to that occupation, Romney couldn't convince me to buy a bag of potato chips.
 
K

KingK

Member
Miletius said:
Well if he loses Florida he will need Ohio and something else, probably PA in addition to CO, NM, AZ and NV. If he wins Florida but loses Ohio he will need all of the New West, but won't need PA. If he wins both Ohio and FL then he just needs some of those western states to come his way.

So the easiest route will be to concentrate on Ohio and Florida and hope that the high unemployment in FL will net him a win. In Ohio, he'll need to get savvy.
Click to expand...

I just can't see Romney winning everything he needs. I mean, just look at all of the states Obama could lose and still win the race. And frankly, I don't see it getting even close to that. I think Obama will win both Florida and Ohio, considering he hasn't even started campaigning yet and polls have him up over Romney in both states by a clear margin.

I do think there's a good chance the Senate will swing Republican and the House will stay Republican, but an Obama victory seems like a really good bet.
 
A

Allard

Member
Miletius said:
Well if he loses Florida he will need Ohio and something else, probably PA in addition to CO, NM, AZ and NV. If he wins Florida but loses Ohio he will need all of the New West, but won't need PA. If he wins both Ohio and FL then he just needs some of those western states to come his way.

So the easiest route will be to concentrate on Ohio and Florida and hope that the high unemployment in FL will net him a win. In Ohio, he'll need to get savvy.
Click to expand...

Ah the John Kerry strategy. Problem with Romney is he couldn't pick a worse set of swing states to try and campaign in as a Republican candidate. Honestly as unorthodox/unlikely as it is, he is much better off trying to get Pennsylvania and some other state that normally a republican doesn't win at this point. Believe it or not, he might have a better shot winning in Washington State then in Ohio and Florida, and my state almost always goes blue, at least in the past several decades. His gaffes in both Florida and Ohio, plus the ridiculous back lash of the republican governors in those states is going to make that a VERY up hill battle for swing voters.
 
I

Invisible_Insane

Member
I've mentioned in previous PoliGAF threads that I'm applying to grad schools to do a Master's of Public Policy. I just got a very encouraging text from my dad on the matter.

my dad. said:
To be successful as a future public policy advisor, u mst adopt a pro-Israel stance. It is not jst a matter of self interest. God is on Israel side & we must align wt Him.
Click to expand...
In his defense, I haven't told him I'm no longer religious.
 
C

Chichikov

Member
Invisible_Insane said:
I've mentioned in previous PoliGAF threads that I'm applying to grad schools to do a Master's of Public Policy. I just got a very encouraging text from my dad on the matter.

In his defense, I haven't told him I'm no longer religious.
Click to expand...
Tell him to read the bible.
God doesn't have an unconditional pro-Israel stance.
 
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