Segata Sanshiro
Member
I hope Trendy isn't chickening out 
FIGHTING SPIRIT MAN
FIGHTING SPIRIT MAN
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360/PS3/WII: Wii Takeover watch
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
Alcibiades
Member
I think that back in 1997 when Final Fantasy VII was released, PS-X sales were over 1 million for the month of September (the game had been released the month before in August).
Wouldn't be surprised to see a 1 million September or October for 360, most likely September with a considerable dip in October. It's not just on the strength of Halo but a sort of buildup from the hype of August titles as well.
Wouldn't be surprised to see a 1 million September or October for 360, most likely September with a considerable dip in October. It's not just on the strength of Halo but a sort of buildup from the hype of August titles as well.
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
Xeke said:
I did say all 3. I'm not fussed either way.
titiklabingapat
Member
The difference is that the PS had all the momentum back then. This time it's on the Wii.Alcibiades said:
Halo 3, along with the price drop, is just a much needed boost to stop the rapid decline of the 360 in the past months.
Haunted
Member
nooooo! the badges were comedy gold and I consider these legitimate shops. You'll never get better if you don't try, so keep 'em coming. And I promise I'll keepmoku said:
oh, and I don't think Trendy will take this bet, even though it's his chance to remove plenty of opposing figures from
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Without seeing some source that seems extremely hard to believe as an effect from what was previously a minor franchise, and something that wasn't even close to duplicated with even bigger games on the even bigger PS2.Alcibiades said:
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Looks like he didn't get away unscathed, at least.
EverSoTrendy
Junior Herbed Chicken
(Today, 04:09 PM)
Reply | Quote
EverSoTrendy
Junior Herbed Chicken
(Today, 04:09 PM)
Reply | Quote
JoshuaJSlone
Member
We're talking US here. There have been plenty of games bigger than FF VII since then, none causing a system to sell a million units outside of November/December. Rarely in November, even.Xeke said:
EverSoTrendy
Banned
I'm back. yeah I'm in for the ONE MONTH ban if the Wii sell s more WW than the X360 by Dec 31, 2007.
Edit: I go on Xbox live for a few hours and I come back to a new tag lol. At least give a brother a chance to say his peace.:lol
Edit: I go on Xbox live for a few hours and I come back to a new tag lol. At least give a brother a chance to say his peace.:lol
RiskyChris
Banned
EverSoTrendy said:
Wow, so "Xisiqomelir, Segata Sanshiro, moku, Auron, and Xeke" are all in on this bet too? Christ. Hope Nintendo is at least holding back enough stock to double their average monthly sales.
AlternativeUlster
Absolutely pathetic part deux
Oooh, I want in on this bet. Wii side of course.
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
Looks like Peter Moore was right all along! first to 10 million really does win, but it's not gonna be the 360 :lol
EverSoTrendy
Banned
I gotta admit, some of you are keeping the faith, but this holiday season is way to unpredictable. I'm like 85% sure the X360 has it.
AniHawk said:
It has one month left according to best estimates. 360 might match it for a month when halo releases. Then Nintendo plays its Ace (stock reserves).
I cannot see the 360 doing it, Wii will ride in the New Year as Next-Gen Market leader. Goal for 2008: beat combined 360/PS3 customer base.
EverSoTrendy
Banned
I just don't see it happening. The market is always unpredictable, especially now with so many heavy hitters coming. I took MSFTs side because they seem to have the best holiday line up right now. I don't see Wii breaking that stride this year. It's not like I'm saying the PSP will outsell the DS this year. That would be madness.
Edit: Someone has to side with me, come on you know you want to. It's not as crazy as you guys think.
Edit 2: I'm going to bed, when I come back to gaf late tomorrow I expect to see one more on my side :lol
Edit: Someone has to side with me, come on you know you want to. It's not as crazy as you guys think.
Edit 2: I'm going to bed, when I come back to gaf late tomorrow I expect to see one more on my side :lol
EverSoTrendy said:
Halo/Madden/eh... Bioshock (looks incredible, but it's a system seller for few) are good for the casual gamer, but Mario and especially Smash Bros. are going to target a very wide audience (who should start slimming down once Wii Fit is finally released). They'll keep the momentum going well into the New Year.
Starchasing
Member
AniHawk said:
Mario Galaxy has a 2 player mode. Smash Bros has has 4 types of control, and one of them ( wiimotge only) is a very simplified one. thats why I beleive that both will be heavily marketed to the expanded market.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I for one hope that Halo 3, Bioshcok and the superior Madden jumpstart 360's sales. If only so this 'console war' doesn't remain a foot race between Michael Johnson, a couple of quadrepeligic retarded children.
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
I don't think it's a matter of what Halo will do. Halo will sell to the usual Xbox crowd. The question is, have those who bought the 360 already been people other than the usual Halo crowd? If Microsoft managed to push the bounds of the 360 brand and then add on more when Halo comes out, they should be doing pretty well. I think the likes of Madden and GTA matter far more to Microsoft. Saying Master Chief will take away all their problems is like Nintendo fans expecting Mario to save the GC. But if Microsoft manages to capture a ton of the PS2 gamers that have yet to switch, they will become the gamer console in America. I believe Madden 07 on the 360 outsold all of the XBox versions, so that's a good start. But the PS2 version was still the top selling, so there's a lot of market share still out there. And yeah, I am using Madden as a barometer. I think it's a very good one to gauge just where the market is right now between last generation and this generation.
By the way, does anyone have a good guess at current Wii numbers? If the US numbers are only up to the end of June, then there should be about an additional 600k sold through the following month and a half (if the current 400k a month trends continues). That would be about 9.7 million. Where are we getting the European numbers? How old are those? The thought of Nintendo being in the driver's seat for the first time in more than eleven years is almost unimaginable, and we might not even know who's on top for months.
By the way, does anyone have a good guess at current Wii numbers? If the US numbers are only up to the end of June, then there should be about an additional 600k sold through the following month and a half (if the current 400k a month trends continues). That would be about 9.7 million. Where are we getting the European numbers? How old are those? The thought of Nintendo being in the driver's seat for the first time in more than eleven years is almost unimaginable, and we might not even know who's on top for months.
AlteredBeast said:
Well, the 360 has the benefit of its head start, so it should be getting plenty of great games throughout its lifespan. The big question in my eyes is when the next generation will begin. The handheld race was firmly decided in March 2006 and software for the PSP has gone from games based on popular series to pretty much all remakes and ports. If things continue at the current rate, it won't be long before the PS3 reaches that level. I doubt Wii will have the same dominance the DS/PS2 had, seeing as by the time third parties make the switch and start pumping out the big games (late 2008, early 2009?), the next gen may be already ramping up.
Don't know if it's news since I don't really follow sales-age, but Eurogamer seems to think so.
http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=81427
http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=81427
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
Of course, but I'm talking on a large scale. I think even speaking in the hundreds of thousands would be relatively insignificant, and I think that's the most Halo 3 will do in terms of adding people to the 360 collective. "Stealing" games that have traditionally been linked with Sony would do far more for them in my mind. But I will be very interested to see if Halo 3 ultimately outsells Halo 2. I think it will, I'm just wondering by how much.Hammer24 said:
AlternativeUlster
Absolutely pathetic part deux
Hammer24 said:
Are you going to take the 360 side of the bet then?
AlternativeUlster said:
Why should I? I think the Wii will still outsell the 360 regardless.
I just dont think that two arguments hold water anymore:
- the Halo crowd already owns a 360 (improbable: Halo2 is still one of the most played games over live, and the 360 was still too expensive for the Halo crowd. They´ll jump in either now when H3 hits, or even later when the 360 gets its next price cut)
- MS can´t broaden their target audience with the 360 over the XBOX (the 360 is no shooter box, not even from a perception pov. MS has already widened its audience, sales age proves this again and again)
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
I don't think the Xbox had a month over 300k outside of November or December. Same with the 360. Although both came close enough where they pretty much where. Still, that's including two games that I believe are amongst the top twenty best selling games in America. I give the 360 500k max. It will probably be Microsoft's best non November or December month ever. Unlike the original Xbox, Halo is coming out at an opportune time in the 360's life cycle. Halo 1 came out at launch, meaning it couldn't drive Xbox sales immediately, and Halo 2 came out at the Xbox's last big Christmas, so you didn't see quite the same explosion. So it'll probably benefit the 360 a little more at this point in time. But I wouldn't be surprised to see even less than 500k. I need an accurate barometer for what people are thinking here. Does anyone think it'll do more than that?Hammer24 said:
I didn't say either of those things in quite that way. I meant that Halo won't be the driving force for 360 growth that it was for the original Xbox. Microsoft has the Halo consumer. They might come next month. December. Next June. Who knows. But Microsoft has them. But unless Halo 3 sells goes above and beyond what Halo 2 did, I don't see it selling a ton of systems to people who didn't buy an Xbox. Even then, how much would that be? A million? Two million at most? That's still only the difference between selling 24 million systems and 26 million systems.Hammer24 said:
Secondly, I said that Microsoft needs the likes of GTA and Madden to broaden their audience. Halo helps, but it's not doing for the 360 anything more than Halo 1 and 2 did for the Xbox.
666 said:
Next time I think about bitching about how no one cares about Australia, i'll remember this graph. I'm surprised they even bother...
Exactly. This (or, world wide sales in general) is always in the back of my mind when I see people complain about release dates, prices and censorship. Of course, that still doesn't stop me from complaining.
Mgoblue201 said:
Thats what I think too. How much exactly? I´ll wait and see. But combining this with the recent price cut I´d say it could be significant.
But it makes no sense whatsoever to compare Halo1/2 to Halo 3 sales. Games on two totally different consoles: lifetime-, market penetration-, awareness- and perceptionwise. They only share the manufacturer.
[qoute]Secondly, I said that Microsoft needs the likes of GTA and Madden to broaden their audience. Halo helps, but it's not doing for the 360 anything more than Halo 1 and 2 did for the Xbox.[/QUOTE]
But MS already did this. Where are the Oblivions, Viva Pinatas etc. for the XBOX?
TheGreatDave
Banned
The Power of Japan is just too strong for me to think 360 can pull away too much with Halo. Whatever extra units are shifted for Halo 3 in the US Wii has Smash Bros, Galaxy and Wii Fit releasing in Japan this year to more than make up for.
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
I just think that systems that sell great sell great because they've built momentum. They're typically consistent. Microsoft will probably see a rise from Halo 3, but I just don't think it'll be enough. I think relying on one game by itself is bad policy. I look at games building momentum. Nintendogs was great in and of itself, but that coupled with a great holidays and the subsequent release of the DS Lite sealed the deal. If you rely on one game, you usually end up disappointed. There's a reason a system always sells what it does and does so month to month on a consistent basis.Hammer24 said:
It makes sense because ultimately it's the same people buying the two games. Halo 2 even sold more than Halo and there wasn't a huge bump that you could pick out of a crowd. I did say that Halo 3 was partially incomparable because of when it was coming out in the 360's life cycle, but I think once you tally up all of the damage, it'll have the same result. What kind of stratosphere would you expect Halo 3 to take the 360 to that the other Halos did not take the Xbox to? That's the question I'm ultimately asking.Hammer24 said:
The XBox had its Oblivion, and I don't think Viva Pinata did enough for it. It's still not on the same level of a GTA or Madden. The 360 needs to be the primary American gamer's console. Not even Halo did that for the Xbox, although it certainly gained the system status. It can only overcome the Playstation brand by taking away what value it has.Hammer24 said: