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[borghe]

People seem to forget that the 360 is STILL expensive. 1 million a month in NA at the current price seems a bit optimistic.

it sold 1.1m last december and still is in a growth cycle. it should hit 1M easily both months. the only unknowns are

a) what the wii is capable of during the holiday
b) what nintendo's supply is during the holiday

I believe we'll only see the answer to one of those questions this year.

 

[ALeperMessiah]

Count me in on the Wii's side. Not a chance in hell that 360 will outsell Wii for the rest of the year, even with Halo 3. Thinking that Nintendo doesn't keep units aside for the holiday period (like some people are saying) is just stupid.

Sneaky as they can be, Nintendo might even begin to increase Wii shipments in september/october in NA to counter Halo 3. It has happened before, so why not this time? There's also the Big 3, for which they'll sure increase them, so I don't really think X360 stands a chance to stay on top.

Am I the only one that thinks its wrong that Nintendo keeps units aside for the holiday period? It doesn't matter when you sell them, as long as you sell them. The only reason to hold onto them is to give Nintendo fanboys something to jerk off about come December. I don't know, but I think that if any other company did this, gamers would be up in arms. When Nintendo does it, everyone claps.

 

[duderon]

Am I the only one that thinks its wrong that Nintendo keeps units aside for the holiday period? It doesn't matter when you sell them, as long as you sell them. The only reason to hold onto them is to give Nintendo fanboys something to jerk off about come December.

Every company does this. You can't come to the biggest sales time of the year and have a major console shortage.

 

[ALeperMessiah]

Every company does this. You can't come to the biggest sales time of the year and have a major console shortage.

I guess, but when you're having stock outages since last November you think they'd try to solve that problem before they save up for the holiday. I don't know, seems kinda shady to me.

 

[koam]

Am I the only one that thinks its wrong that Nintendo keeps units aside for the holiday period? It doesn't matter when you sell them, as long as you sell them. The only reason to hold onto them is to give Nintendo fanboys something to jerk off about come December.

This is a very common practice. Nintendo would rather, from a business pov, sell loads and loads during the holidays and have supply constraint now. Media is still talking about how hard it is to find a wii NOW, it will be even crazier during the holidays and the media will have a lot of "WII TOP SELLING TOY IN XMAS" stories which will gather more attention from the public and cause sales to increase in the new year.

Now: Media talks about how Wii is hard to find
Xmas: Nintendo ships loads and sells out because it's xmas
Early '08: Nintendo announces Wii holidays sales went up like 3X from previous months
Early '08: Media talks about how Wii was the hottest selling toy in xmas.
Free GOOD Publicity

Wheras in your situation, the number of wii's sold is constant and will make their holiday numbers seem "weak"

 

[Version 3.0]

Am I the only one that thinks its wrong that Nintendo keeps units aside for the holiday period? It doesn't matter when you sell them, as long as you sell them. The only reason to hold onto them is to give Nintendo fanboys something to jerk off about come December. I don't know, but I think that if any other company did this, gamers would be up in arms. When Nintendo does it, everyone claps.

All sales are not equal. If you're not on the shelves at Christmas, you miss out not only on guaranteed hardware sales, but on all the matching software and accessory sales as well--which are where you make your money. And you end up promoting the competition by default, during the one time of the year when a much broader customer base is buying.

 

[ALeperMessiah]

All sales are not equal. If you're not on the shelves at Christmas, you miss out not only on guaranteed hardware sales, but on all the matching software and accessory sales as well--which are where you make your money. And you end up promoting the competition by default, during the one time of the year when a much broader customer base is buying.

Point taken, I still think if other console makers did this people would have a problem, but it does make more financial sense.

 

[koam]

Point taken, I still think if other console makers did this people would have a problem, but it does make more financial sense.

They all do it. Sony was doing this for years, Nintendo did it back in the day, Atari did as well. It's not even just console makers, Mattel does this too. Marketing and Sales 101.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

it sold 1.1m last december and still is in a growth cycle. it should hit 1M easily both months. the only unknowns are

a) what the wii is capable of during the holiday
b) what nintendo's supply is during the holiday

I believe we'll only see the answer to one of those questions this year.

There is no way in hell 360 will top 1M in the US more than one month.

 

[borghe]

There is no way in hell 360 will top 1M in the US more than one month.

they did 511K last november and 1.1M last december. however THIS november they will have Halo 3, GH3, and Rock Band. The last two will be MAJOR mainstream sellers. "Likely" may be an overstatement, but it will definitely hit well over 1M during one month (Dec) and could very well come close to 1M during the first month that those three games will all be available.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

it sold 1.1m last december and still is in a growth cycle. it should hit 1M easily both months.

PS2 only reached 1 million in November once, before going on to pass 2 million in December.

 

[Version 3.0]

The 360 won't do a million in November NA. The only console that has a shot is the Wii. But probably, only the DS will manage it (the GBA did it 3 years running).

 

[felipeko]

People tend to forget that Wii is doing 1 million WW monthly..
Even if X360 can do 1 million in N.A. how much will they do outise?
300k? 400k?

Wii will probably do 2.5 million in November and 4.5 in december. (ok thats my expectations, maybe a lot less, but still a lot more of what X360 can dream of)

 

[Link]

they did 511K last november and 1.1M last december. however THIS november they will have Halo 3, GH3, and Rock Band. The last two will be MAJOR mainstream sellers. "Likely" may be an overstatement, but it will definitely hit well over 1M during one month (Dec) and could very well come close to 1M during the first month that those three games will all be available.

I think the fact that Halo comes out in September will cause sales to be diminished for November. I don't think it'll come close to 1 million for the month.

 

[C.T.]

Guitar Heroes will be released on Wii and PS3 as well. Rock Band is unproven.

 

[EverSoTrendy]

LOL@ Reading comprehension:lol . Sorry I'm far from retarded, I'm just totally optimistic.

 

[ComputerNerd]

So, are we revising our Europe numbers?

 

[borghe]

Guitar Heroes will be released on Wii and PS3 as well. Rock Band is unproven.

I mentioned Guitar Hero because it will drive 360 sales big time. Yes it will drive Wii sales as well, but I was talking about the gap between Wii and 360 sales. If both systems increment at the same pace then the gap narrows.

and Rock Band is not at all unproven. We have a given track record with the developer (Frequency, Amplitude, Karaoke Revolution, Guitar Hero, etc), full backing from EA, and what looks to be an outstanding track list. Get your pre-orders in now folks, because this one's going to fly off the shelves and take a whole lot of 360's with it (at a grand price tag of $550!!!!!)

 

[koam]

I mentioned Guitar Hero because it will drive 360 sales big time. Yes it will drive Wii sales as well, but I was talking about the gap between Wii and 360 sales. If both systems increment at the same pace then the gap narrows.

and Rock Band is not at all unproven. We have a given track record with the developer (Frequency, Amplitude, Karaoke Revolution, Guitar Hero, etc), full backing from EA, and what looks to be an outstanding track list. Get your pre-orders in now folks, because this one's going to fly off the shelves and take a whole lot of 360's with it (at a grand price tag of $550!!!!!)

Sales wise, it's unproven. Buying a 360 AND Rock band will set someone back $600 or so. I can see Rock Band selling more to the crowd that already has a 360. As for GH3, it's not a system seller, people will just buy it for whatever console they have since it's on all of the ones that matter.

If someone really wants GH3 and has no console, the entry price for both the hardware and the software is cheaper on the Wii. So really, it's a moot point.

 

[KINGMOKU]

Looks like the bet is on.


borghe, enough of your insolent chatter. Take sides, or forever be of chicken-heart.

make your choice.

Spoiler

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

If both systems increment at the same pace then the gap narrows.

How is that? If both increment by the same flat amount, the gap would remain exactly the same. If both increment by the same percentage amount, the gap would increase.

 

[borghe]

How is that? If both increment by the same flat amount, the gap would remain exactly the same. If both increment by the same percentage amount, the gap would increase.

sorry, the ratio would diminish.. if Wii sells 2 and 360 sells 1, sales are 2:1. If Wii sells 3 and 360 sells 2, sales are now 1.5:1.

 

[Version 3.0]

sorry, the ratio would diminish.. if Wii sells 2 and 360 sells 1, sales are 2:1. If Wii sells 3 and 360 sells 2, sales are now 1.5:1.

I think Joshua is using "sales to installed base" and you're using "sales with new hardware purchases". So you're both right/wrong/whatever.

 

[_PsiFire_]

Wii is gonna dominate this year and beyond..

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

sorry, the ratio would diminish.. if Wii sells 2 and 360 sells 1, sales are 2:1. If Wii sells 3 and 360 sells 2, sales are now 1.5:1.

I think Joshua is using "sales to installed base" and you're using "sales with new hardware purchases".

Nah, seems the difference is he meant the gap in terms of percent, while I just meant the unit difference.

Speaking of percentage gaps, though, something said earlier in the thread:

I'm just saying that right now Wii is outselling the 360 around 1.5:1 in america.. I think that's going to drop.

From month to month this year so far Wii has outsold X360 by 30% (March) to 118% (May), but as a sum it's sold 69% better by NPD's reckoning. I agree, though, it's bound to drop.

 

[CreatureX3]

it sold 1.1m last december and still is in a growth cycle. it should hit 1M easily both months.

A big reason for those sales last December was due to MS offering a $100 rebate for buying a 360.

 

[PantherLotus]

Wow this thread got interesting. Somebody invite Jimbo in here. Also, we should double the stakes. 2 months for the Wii ahead side (because it's more likely), 1 month for the 360 ahead side (less likely). I'm an professional handicapper, if it matters.

Right now the over/under on the Wii takeover is 1.48 months. Odds of 360 being ahead are 3:1. The point spread is around 700k units, actually.

 

[Evlar]

I haven't been paying any attention to this thread until today. I'm curious: are we ignoring the Europe news? This is pure curiosity, not an attempt to start shit: I see it was posted two or three pages ago and the post was never responded to or acknowledged in any other way. I'm too damn lazy to keep reading back to see if it was already accounted for earlier.

 

[PantherLotus]

I'm not really a professional handicapper.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I haven't been paying any attention to this thread until today. I'm curious: are we ignoring the Europe news? This is pure curiosity, not an attempt to start shit: I see it was posted two or three pages ago and the post was never responded to or acknowledged in any other way. I'm too damn lazy to keep reading back to see if it was already accounted for earlier.

But how to apply the European news? It seems Wii is doing better than PS3 or X360, but we can't just add ratios to the previous UK numbers which were I believe the basis for the current estimates.

I'm not really a professional handicapper.

Hmph. I'm starting to even doubt your pantherhood.

 

[KINGMOKU]

But how to apply the European news? It seems Wii is doing better than PS3 or X360, but we can't just add ratios to the previous UK numbers which were I believe the basis for the current estimates.

Hmph. I'm starting to even doubt your pantherhood.

No kidding.


How about kittylotus.

 

[PantherLotus]

You will know my name is PANTHER LOTUS when I lay my predictions upon thee!

 

[Xeke]

No matter what, I'm still pretty confident in my side of the bet. Japan will take us to victory!

 

[apujanata]

A month?

I've been stuck in a freaking cage trying to post for freaking three years.

This versus the Probilator? Anal probes by a surly alien, or a month ban?

Besides, I've fallen off some very high things. One time I tripped and fell off the curb.



It's a date then.

Good. May the best predictor win.

Off topic : I once have a bet with Link316 on GameFAQS, because he predicted that Nintendo will never release revolution (back in Feb 2004), because GCN was doing so badly at that time. The bet is not just one month bet like this one, but it is a permanent ban.

needless to say, Link316 lose, and he permently ban himself (by closing his account in GameFAQS). I respect him because he honor his bet.

 

[Mar]

Mar, apujanata, AlternativeUser, and Taurus as well.

Okay, it's sealed. If 360 still holds its worldwide lead at the end of 2007, Xisiqomelir, moku, Auron, Xeke, Mar, apujanata, AlternativeUser, Taurus, and myself each get a one-month timeout. If the Wii overtakes it and holds it at the end of 2007, EverSoTrendy gets a one-month timeout.

Doesn't anyone want to join EverSoTrendy on his suicide march?

You know, I don't mind which way this goes in the end. Both will be entertaining. If we lose it will be hilarious to see so many accounts banned at once.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

You know, I don't mind which way this goes in the end. Both will be entertaining. If we lose it will be hilarious to see so many accounts banned at once.

Yeah, I kinda hope we lose actually. It would be breathtaking.

 

[AniHawk]

Good. May the best predictor win.

Off topic : I once have a bet with Link316 on GameFAQS, because he predicted that Nintendo will never release revolution (back in Feb 2004), because GCN was doing so badly at that time. The bet is not just one month bet like this one, but it is a permanent ban.

needless to say, Link316 lose, and he permently ban himself (by closing his account in GameFAQS). I respect him because he honor his bet.

So it's your fault he followed you here.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Yeah, I kinda hope we lose actually. It would be breathtaking.

I'd have to retract that retarded kid statement about a page back.

It'd be more luck if he was right.

 

[PantherLotus]

I'd have to retract that retarded kid statement about a page back.

It'd be more luck if he was right.

It's amazing that it only took you 3 years to the right to post here.

 

[cvxfreak]

Gotta admit, the 360 and Wii just got a whole lot more interesting.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

It's amazing that it only took you 3 years to the right to post here.

You try to get internet from a cage in the deserts of Arizona.

I had to hold ransom an entire family of three before the cheap ass alien would get me 56K.

The tubes to my brain aren't connected right.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Somebody brought up a good point way earlier in the thread. I wonder how the general consumer slowdown for the rest of the year will affect the console war, especially for the 360. and the PS3.

 

[JJConrad]

it sold 1.1m last december and still is in a growth cycle. it should hit 1M easily both months. the only unknowns are

a) what the wii is capable of during the holiday
b) what nintendo's supply is during the holiday

I believe we'll only see the answer to one of those questions this year.

what does that mean? it's performance in recent months doesn't exactly demonstrate any type of positive growth cycle and last year's december sales were pretty close to even with what the xbox brand had been selling in previous years.
while i think the 360 will do better this Christmas over last year, i see no reason to expect more than a 10% boost... no more than halo 2 caused.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Somebody brought up a good point way earlier in the thread. I wonder how the general consumer slowdown for the rest of the year will affect the console war, especially for the 360. and the PS3.

Sony hit a brick wall early on, this month might be a change in fortunes from flat out flatlining, to cardiac arrest, but I can't see it doing that much. Limitted price drop only to rise back to the $599 mark is not smart.

Microsoft has had reasonable success in America, is probably in the same position in Europe, and forgotten in Japan. America can see a resurgence of sorts with Halo 3, but will it be enough to wrest away the leading seller title from Nintendo?

I still think the American market can support two consoles very well. We've seen it a lot since this industry started. The most recent was the PSX and N64. Ten or so million units over Nintendo in America launching two years earlier. Cartridges completely screwed the N64 from getting worthwhile American support.

The SNES and Genesis were another case. Until the Genesis early demise they were both right on par. The 360 and Wii can both get along swimmingly in the American market. Neither really being hurt by the other because they both offer something the other doesn't have.

 

[apujanata]

So it's your fault he followed you here.

Not really. He has always said that he wanted to follow where Anihawk went to (since leaving gamefaqs).

I am just helping things along (by having a perma ban bet).

Spoiler

I am just joking about him following you, just in case you think I am serious

The SNES and Genesis were another case. Until the Genesis early demise they were both right on par. The 360 and Wii can both get along swimmingly in the American market. Neither really being hurt by the other because they both offer something the other doesn't have.

IF Sony goes from #1 (PS2) to #3 (PS3) in US, and a distant third (not like GCN, which is a relatively close third), then it is very bad for Sony.
Even Nintendo does not go directly from #1 (SNES) to #3 (N64 managed to get #2, not #3).

However, I have a feeling that it is possible (< 50% possibility) that PS3 may still get #2 in US.

 

[Haunted]

So it's your fault he followed you here.

:lol exactly what I was thinking. 'How apujanata helped to fill my ignore list'.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Well, one thing I have noticed is that, since the price cut, the 360 has sold really well in my store. The Wii still sells out...when we get them in, which seems like less than a few weeks ago. I think Nintendo might have begun hoarding for the holiday starting this month.


The last few days, though, 360 has been the overall sales leader.

 

[Xeke]

Well, one thing I have noticed is that, since the price cut, the 360 has sold really well in my store. The Wii still sells out...when we get them in, which seems like less than a few weeks ago. I think Nintendo might have begun hoarding for the holiday starting this month.


The last few days, though, 360 has been the overall sales leader.

I've seen 1 Wii at my walmart since launch and they still have loads of 360's.

 

[borghe]

what does that mean? it's performance in recent months doesn't exactly demonstrate any type of positive growth cycle and last year's december sales were pretty close to even with what the xbox brand had been selling in previous years.
while i think the 360 will do better this Christmas over last year, i see no reason to expect more than a 10% boost... no more than halo 2 caused.

in all video game generations you have three points in the cycle. growth, peak, and decline. they are all pretty self explanatory. the 360 HAS to be in a growth cycle right now, because otherwise it would be a peak (implying it's only going to be around for another 2-3 years tops) or decline (implying it's only going to be around for another 1-2 years tops). If it really is going to be at least a 7 year cycle, the 360 has to still be in the growth portion of the cycle. This typically means that it will see year-over-year increases across the board over last year. Being that it did 511K and 1.1M last year, it should technically do more than those numbers this year. I had thought that would mean November might come close to 1M and between the two months might average close to 1M/month. Others believe (possibly more correctly) that Halo in September might have a large impact on early holiday sales.

 

[theguy]

great job with this. Did you wrap ChartTrack in with Europe? PS3 will be just fine. It's just having some problems getting it up.