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[legend166]

As more and more times goes on, and the more and more numbers we get, am I the only one that thinks that Smash and Galaxy are absolutely going to clean house this Christmas? I mean, I wouldn't put it past both of them to outsell Halo 3 worldwide. Quite handily, infact.

 

[Mgoblue201]

As more and more times goes on, and the more and more numbers we get, am I the only one that thinks that Smash and Galaxy are absolutely going to clean house this Christmas? I mean, I wouldn't put it past both of them to outsell Halo 3 worldwide. Quite handily, infact.

Galaxy has a chance. I think the main question with this game is: with NSMB, have the Japanese begun to accept Mario again? If Galaxy sells like NSMB in Japan and only does Sunshine numbers in America and Europe, it's already at ten million. I don't know if it'll sell like NSMB there, but I definitely think we'll see more growth in the other two territories. In fact, I think Galaxy could be a revitilization for the main series worldwide that we haven't seen since Mario 64, perhaps even outselling that.

SSBB is a little different. Melee sold around Halo, but Halo 2 beat it out by a good margin. SSBB will have to show some good growth in order to do this. With the Wii's user base, it could be possible. But Halo 3 will probably sell at least eight million, perhaps more, and I don't know if Brawl can take that next step up. If I had a guess, I'd say Galaxy>Halo 3>Brawl, but it could go any way depending on several factors.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Wow, so "Xisiqomelir, Segata Sanshiro, moku, Auron, and Xeke" are all in on this bet too? Christ. Hope Nintendo is at least holding back enough stock to double their average monthly sales.

Mar, apujanata, AlternativeUser, and Taurus as well.

Okay, it's sealed. If 360 still holds its worldwide lead at the end of 2007, Xisiqomelir, moku, Auron, Xeke, Mar, apujanata, AlternativeUser, Taurus, and myself each get a one-month timeout. If the Wii overtakes it and holds it at the end of 2007, EverSoTrendy gets a one-month timeout.

Doesn't anyone want to join EverSoTrendy on his suicide march?

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Mar, apujanata, AlternativeUser, and Taurus as well.

Okay, it's sealed. If 360 still holds its worldwide lead at the end of 2007, Xisiqomelir, moku, Auron, Xeke, Mar, apujanata, AlternativeUser, Taurus, and myself each get a one-month timeout. If the Wii overtakes it and holds it at the end of 2007, EverSoTrendy gets a one-month timeout.

Doesn't anyone want to join EverSoTrendy on his suicide march?

Put me on Ever's side.

Sure I think he's a tard for taking the bet, when all signs point to him being wrong completely and utterly wrong, but he's getting piled on pretty hard.

Chivalrous and partially retarded monkey throws his hat in.

Hell Mr EverSoTrendy as early as the end of this month we could be banned.

 

[legend166]

We should make it so that for every member who is against the opposite side, they get a month. So, Trendy will get a 9 months ban as it stands.


Haha.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

We should make it so that for every member who is against the opposite side, they get a month. So, Trendy will get a 9 months ban as it stands.


Haha.

Screw that!

It's taken me three years to begin posting. Bad idea. I just don't want to see the retarded kid get picked on.

 

[felipeko]

SSBB is a little different. Melee sold around Halo, but Halo 2 beat it out by a good margin. SSBB will have to show some good growth in order to do this. With the Wii's user base, it could be possible. But Halo 3 will probably sell at least eight million, perhaps more, and I don't know if Brawl can take that next step up. If I had a guess, I'd say Galaxy>Halo 3>Brawl, but it could go any way depending on several factors.

SSBB will at least sell 6 million, but probably a lot more, since it userbase wll be higher than GC by next year. Halo3 i don't know if it will go much further than 8 millions.

Doesn't anyone want to join EverSoTrendy on his suicide march?

Hell no :lol, i would even join the Wii's side if i didn't have a ban bet going on that time too..

Put me on Ever's side.

Oh boy, good luck. But anyway... 1 month just reading GAF is not that bad.. you still laugh a lot..

 

[mclem]

Put me on Ever's side.

Sure I think he's a tard for taking the bet, when all signs point to him being wrong completely and utterly wrong, but he's getting piled on pretty hard.

Chivalrous and partially retarded monkey throws his hat in.

Hell Mr EverSoTrendy as early as the end of this month we could be banned.

Wait up, that's not quite what the terms were; the terms were for the 360 to lead at the end of the year. In theory the Wii could overtake the 360 and then Halo 3 could boost 360 sales once again to pass the Wii.

Indeed, I personally think that that bit's quite likely. Not definite - I won't be throwing any bets around - but certainly a plausible state of affairs. The question is what happens *after* that; my money's on the Wii pulling back the lead over Christmas.

Either way: No-one should get banned until the deadline.

 

[E-phonk]

But Halo 3 will probably sell at least eight million, perhaps more

On the current 9.7 million userbase?

What have been "exceptional" tie ratios for the last five year?

 

[felipeko]

Wait up, that's not quite what the terms were; the terms were for the 360 to lead at the end of the year. In theory the Wii could overtake the 360 and then Halo 3 could boost 360 sales once again to pass the Wii.

Indeed, I personally think that that bit's quite likely. Not definite - I won't be throwing any bets around - but certainly a plausible state of affairs. The question is what happens *after* that; my money's on the Wii pulling back the lead over Christmas.

Either way: No-one should get banned until the deadline.

Not really:

Who wants to bet a month ban that the Wii won't surpass the X360 in sales this year? Meaning ending in the last quarter.

And anyway, Wii will outsell x360 easily this holidays. The best Microsoft does in NA, Wii will beat with the help of Japan.

 

[Mgoblue201]

I'd join in on the bet and sacrifice myself for the crusade, but it took me long enough to get registered on the forum. I'm not in a mood to get banished so swiftly.

SSBB will at least sell 6 million, but probably a lot more, since it userbase wll be higher than GC by next year. Halo3 i don't know if it will go much further than 8 millions.

That was my line of thinking. Melee sold about 6.5 million, and Brawl will sell more just by extension of the Wii's userbase. But I don't think Halo 3 will do any worse than 2, so that means Brawl will have to grow by at least 1.5 million if not more. I think it can. I'd even give it a very good chance. I just don't want to go out on a limb and predict a huge break through like that.

On the current 9.7 million userbase?

What have been "exceptional" tie ratios for the last five year?

I guess the original supposition talked about just holiday sales, although I went off on a tangent about total sales, as that's much more interesting. Holiday sales are affected by too many factors, but on the software side of things, total sales are much more relevant. I expect the 360 to ultimately do better than the Xbox anyway. Halo 2 had about a 33% tie in ratio I think (and it's closer to 40% just counting America). That's pretty astounding.

 

[Xeke]

Not really:

And anyway, Wii will outsell x360 easily this holidays. The best Microsoft does in NA, Wii will beat with the help of Japan.

That is the logic that I am riding on.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Wait up, that's not quite what the terms were; the terms were for the 360 to lead at the end of the year. In theory the Wii could overtake the 360 and then Halo 3 could boost 360 sales once again to pass the Wii.

Indeed, I personally think that that bit's quite likely. Not definite - I won't be throwing any bets around - but certainly a plausible state of affairs. The question is what happens *after* that; my money's on the Wii pulling back the lead over Christmas.

Either way: No-one should get banned until the deadline.

Cool cool then.

I can live with that.

And let it be known. I think the Wii will be the market leader by a long shot by Jan 1st. By May I expect it to be closing in on PS3 and 360 combined numbers. He bit off more then he could chew. Knowing pretty much nothing about the actual numbers, and just how perilous it's becoming for the 360 against the Wii.

The lead has all but evaporated and I expect the Wii to still continue selling like it has (everything they ship) for many many months to come. The 360 might see boosts here and there (Halo for one) but I don't see any reason why it will harm the Wii in America. One console running on launch hype, the other running on a software release.

It was a an idiots bet, but hell I've jumped off from much higher things.

 

[Xeke]

Cool cool then.

I can live with that.

And let it be known. I think the Wii will be the market leader by a long shot by Jan 1st. By May I expect it to be closing in on PS3 and 360 combined numbers. He bit off more then he could chew. Knowing pretty much nothing about the actual numbers, and just how perilous it's becoming for the 360 against the Wii.

The lead has all but evaporated and I expect the Wii to still continue selling like it has (everything they ship) for many many months to come. The 360 might see boosts here and there (Halo for one) but I don't see any reason why it will harm the Wii in America. One console running on launch hype, the other running on a software release.

It was a an idiots bet, but hell I've jumped off from much higher things.

But you've probably never landed as hard as you are going to this time.

 

[E-phonk]

I guess the original supposition talked about just holiday sales, although I went off on a tangent about total sales. I expect the 360 to ultimately do better than the Xbox anyway. Halo 2 had about a 33% tie in ratio I think (and it's closer to 40% just counting America). That's pretty astounding.

In it's lifetime, it's indeed possible, but if Smash turns out to be online, I can see it having long, long legs. Halo3 might be a lot more frontloaded in comparison, hurting it in the long run in absolute numbers.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Yes, I believe the spirit of the bet means whoever is holding the lead at the end of the year. Anything else...would be uncivilized.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

But you've probably never landed as hard as you are going to this time.

A month?

I've been stuck in a freaking cage trying to post for freaking three years.

This versus the Probilator? Anal probes by a surly alien, or a month ban?

Besides, I've fallen off some very high things. One time I tripped and fell off the curb.

Yes, I believe the spirit of the bet means whoever is holding the lead at the end of the year. Anything else...would be uncivilized.

It's a date then.

 

[felipeko]

By the way... With that new article about Wii outselling by 4:1 in UK, isn't safe to assume that Europe numbers should be higher (than 2.2) by now?
According to their Financial Results, they had 2.5 million shipped to "other" by june

That was my line of thinking. Melee sold about 6.5 million, and Brawl will sell more just by extension of the Wii's userbase. But I don't think Halo 3 will do any worse than 2, so that means Brawl will have to grow by at least 1.5 million if not more. I think it can. I'd even give it a very good chance. I just don't want to go out on a limb and predict a huge break through like that.

I think there's a possibility Halo3 do a little worse because the higher price (i know it will get cuts, but still higher than last gen)... And every Wii game is getting a hell of a bust on sales... It looks like every Nintendo game is an AAA game on sales now...

 

[Xeke]

Yes, I believe the spirit of the bet means whoever is holding the lead at the end of the year. Anything else...would be uncivilized.

Aye. That is the way it should be.

 

[Mgoblue201]

In it's lifetime, it's indeed possible, but if Smash turns out to be online, I can see it having long, long legs. Halo3 might be a lot more frontloaded in comparison, hurting it in the long run in absolute numbers.

Didn't Halo 2 sell something of 2 million of its 6 million American sales in its first week? In the short term, I think Halo is immensely popular. A game like GTA might be more popular, but Halo certainly has a more hardcore following that would buy it day one. Whether SSB passes it or not depends largely on how much it grows, and I think online would be a part of that. It's just very hard to predict with the Wii. You can make some sort of comparison between the Xbox and 360 and predict what Halo 3's going to do. But things have fluctuated so wildly between the GC and Wii that I find it somewhat difficult to predict what Brawl will do, whether talking just this holiday or over the course of their lifetimes. Japan is the biggest question mark. They ignored a lot of Nintendo franchises on the GC, but I can see them gaining millions of new fans just from that country alone.

 

[koam]

By the way... With that new article about Wii outselling by 4:1 in UK, isn't safe to assume that Europe numbers should be higher (than 2.2) by now?
According to their Financial Results, they had 2.5 million shipped to "other" by june


I think there's a possibility Halo3 do a little worse because the higher price (i know it will get cuts, but still higher than last gen)... And every Wii game is getting a hell of a bust on sales... It looks like every Nintendo game is an AAA game on sales now...

Yes, they're a lot higher than 2.2 but we don't have updated numbers so ..

 

[schuelma]

Alright, I'm in on this bet, on the side of everything good and holy (i.e Segata).

I think this is the safest bet I've ever made..I see no conceivable way the 360 is still at the top by the end of the year.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Simple question: Is the 360 tracking ahead of the original Xbox based on time and by how much?

 

[schuelma]

Well, based on the newest Europe quasi numbers leaked out, I'm revising my monthly Wii projections to 350-375K a month now. PS3 downwards to 75K a month, 360 holding steady at 100K.

 

[Mgoblue201]

Simple question: Is the 360 tracking ahead of the original Xbox based on time and by how much?

I believe they're very close in America, although I think the 360 will begin to distinguish itself. The Xbox was only doing like 150k a month during this point in the 360's life cycle. Don't ask me about Europe. I don't have any numbers.

 

[schuelma]

Updated Aussie numbers- Wii doing amazing as always:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/games...ound-wii/2007/08/14/1186857500159.html?page=2

360- 190K
Wii-138K
PS3-66.5K

 

[Taurus]

As more and more times goes on, and the more and more numbers we get, am I the only one that thinks that Smash and Galaxy are absolutely going to clean house this Christmas? I mean, I wouldn't put it past both of them to outsell Halo 3 worldwide. Quite handily, infact.

I tried to make a bet but no one took it.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=7286266&postcount=1628

 

[Xeke]

Alright, I'm in on this bet, on the side of everything good and holy (i.e Segata).

I think this is the safest bet I've ever made..I see no conceivable way the 360 is still at the top by the end of the year.

Welcome to the team.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Well, based on the newest Europe quasi numbers leaked out, I'm revising my monthly Wii projections to 350-375K a month now. PS3 downwards to 75K a month, 360 holding steady at 100K.

I said WOW if it is anything close to reality.

 

[schuelma]

Adding in the new Aussie numbers and my new Europe projections based on the U.K numbers...I have Wii about 130K behind. For my own personal takeover watch, by next Thursday Wii will have overtaken 360 (N.A July exact figures, Europe July partial guess, Japan middle of August exact, Aussie July exact).

 

[schuelma]

I said WOW if it is anything close to reality.

Its my own personal thing and I probably don't get in as much depth as guys like donnie, but projecting rough U.K sales onto Europe I think they're reasonable.

 

[DSWii60]

The Wii has sold nearly 1 million in the UK and at least 700,000 in France aswell if IIRC. Add that to 138k in Australia and numbers for Germany, Spain, Italy etc. and Wii will we way above the 2.2 million that we have estimated. I would suggest a figure of around 3 million at least.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Adding in the new Aussie numbers and my new Europe projections based on the U.K numbers...I have Wii about 130K behind. For my own personal takeover watch, by next Thursday Wii will have overtaken 360 (N.A July exact figures, Europe July partial guess, Japan middle of August exact, Aussie July exact).

Wouldn't the NPD numbers (for next week) + (next week's) Media create numbers push it over the top for Japan + USA?

 

[borghe]

hmm... I don't think either bet is really safe. IF Wii can maintain its amazing momentum through the holidays against the 360/GH3/RB/Halo3 it will definitely beat 360 worldwide before the end of the year.... but that bolded part is pretty tough competition... of course Wii will easily outsell the 360 this holiday, but the 360 is going to see a massive sales jump on a killer lineup, two of which are exclusive to the system between the two. Basically I don't think it's anywhere near a lock that the Wii will outsell the 360 by enough units to overtake the lead. It's possible, but I don't think it's as safe a bet as many of you are believing it is.

My personal prediction is: It will be close. If Wii takes the lead it will be by less than 200K, and if Wii doesn't take the lead it will be by less than 100K.

 

[RevoDS]

Mar, apujanata, AlternativeUser, and Taurus as well.

Okay, it's sealed. If 360 still holds its worldwide lead at the end of 2007, Xisiqomelir, moku, Auron, Xeke, Mar, apujanata, AlternativeUser, Taurus, and myself each get a one-month timeout. If the Wii overtakes it and holds it at the end of 2007, EverSoTrendy gets a one-month timeout.

Doesn't anyone want to join EverSoTrendy on his suicide march?

Count me in on the Wii's side. Not a chance in hell that 360 will outsell Wii for the rest of the year, even with Halo 3. Thinking that Nintendo doesn't keep units aside for the holiday period (like some people are saying) is just stupid.

Sneaky as they can be, Nintendo might even begin to increase Wii shipments in september/october in NA to counter Halo 3. It has happened before, so why not this time? There's also the Big 3, for which they'll sure increase them, so I don't really think X360 stands a chance to stay on top.

 

[felipeko]

hmm... I don't think either bet is really safe. IF Wii can maintain its amazing momentum through the holidays against the 360/GH3/RB/Halo3 it will definitely beat 360 worldwide before the end of the year.... but that bolded part is pretty tough competition... of course Wii will easily outsell the 360 this holiday, but the 360 is going to see a massive sales jump on a killer lineup, two of which are exclusive to the system between the two. Basically I don't think it's anywhere near a lock that the Wii will outsell the 360 by enough units to overtake the lead. It's possible, but I don't think it's as safe a bet as many of you are believing it is.

My personal prediction is: It will be close. If Wii takes the lead it will be by less than 200K, and if Wii doesn't take the lead it will be by less than 100K.

You're talking NA only, right?
Because X360 lineup wont hold much water out of NA.
Nintendo can outsell X360 WW in Japan alone (they're doing it monthly, aren't they?) with WiiSports/WiiFit/WiiMusic/SSBB/SMG combo.

 

[donny2112]

I just don't want to see the retarded kid get picked on.

With friends like you ...

Well, based on the newest Europe quasi numbers leaked out, I'm revising my monthly Wii projections to 350-375K a month now. PS3 downwards to 75K a month, 360 holding steady at 100K.

1) Wii

If that number is correct, then the Wii has really taken off in the summer months in PAL/Other. Through June, I only have the Wii geting close to 300K in a month twice for PAL/Other in 2007. However, Australia does show a bump recently. U.K. was about 30-35% of PAL/Other total for the Wii at the end of June, so 1 million U.K. at the end of August => ~3 million PAL/Other at the end of August => ~350K per month for July/August. I hope that we get a press release giving U.K. numbers and European numbers when they cross.

2) PS3

PAL/Other has been the PS3's strongest market. It has still been pretty low, but better than your number. We have date marks for 800K, 1 million, and 1.2 million in PAL/Other. Based on those numbers and the resulting trend, I have it at the end of June selling about 30K per week in those territories combined. It should go up in July due to the new bundle.

3) 360

That seems about right to me.

 

[borghe]

You're talking NA only, right?
Because X360 lineup wont hold much water out of NA.
Nintendo can outsell X360 WW in Japan alone (they're doing it monthly, aren't they?) with WiiSports/WiiFit/WiiMusic/SSBB/SMG combo.

yeah, I'm talking NA only. But Wii can't outsell 360 WW alone on Japan thanks to the US lead and even the Europe lead. It is going to have to continue to sell at least 50% more through the holidays in the rest of the world to easily beat the 360, and that's including japan. Again certainly possible, maybe even probable. However, far from guaranteed.

 

[felipeko]

yeah, I'm talking NA only. But Wii can't outsell 360 WW alone on Japan thanks to the US lead and even the Europe lead. It is going to have to continue to sell at least 50% more through the holidays in the rest of the world to easily beat the 360, and that's including japan. Again certainly possible, maybe even probable. However, far from guaranteed.

It's not going to happen because Nintendo won't ship enough, they have to care about 3 territories... But Japan guarantee that they're goin go to pass 360 WW, just because 360 is non-existente there, and Nintendo have that 20 million market almost alone.

 

[mclem]

hmm... I don't think either bet is really safe. IF Wii can maintain its amazing momentum through the holidays against the 360/GH3/RB/Halo3 it will definitely beat 360 worldwide before the end of the year.... but that bolded part is pretty tough competition... of course Wii will easily outsell the 360 this holiday, but the 360 is going to see a massive sales jump on a killer lineup, two of which are exclusive to the system between the two.

If you're touting exclusives, then don't forget the simple fact that the Wii has a few exclusives of its own on the way; SMG's currently slated to hit all three regions by Christmas, MP3 is due for two (not sure about Japan?), SSBB is due for two (Other looks to be missing out there, but I'm still holding out hope!)...

And then, on top of that... isn't Wii Fit tentatively due in Japan this year?

 

[borghe]

If you're touting exclusives, then don't forget the simple fact that the Wii has a few exclusives of its own on the way;

Of course Wii has exclusives, and they will sell huge.. I'm just saying that right now Wii is outselling the 360 around 1.5:1 in america.. I think that's going to drop. I really don't see Wii being able to hit much more than 1.?M a month in November and December thanks to hardware shortages. and if 360 hits 1M a month in either or both of those months, that is really going to cut down on the rate that the Wii is catching up.

edit - In other words I think that the 1.5:1 lead the Wii has enjoyed for months now will likely drop to maybe 1.25-1.3:1 come the holidays. After the holidays it will of course jump back up again. But the question in this thread is is that drop going to affect if it can overtake 360 WW by 12/31?

 

[Jokeropia]

edit - In other words I think that the 1.5:1 lead the Wii has enjoyed for months now will likely drop to maybe 1.25-1.3:1 come the holidays. After the holidays it will of course jump back up again. But the question in this thread is is that drop going to affect if it can overtake 360 WW by 12/31?

But Wii will have passed 360 worldwide within the month. September onwards they only need to keep up to stay ahead, and considering they're doing 3-4 times better than just keeping up right now..

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The wild card here is, of course, how much stock Nintendo has in reserve and how much they can produce. Wii demand will disseminate the 360, Do It Nintendo.

I think the word you're looking for is decimate, as opposed to one that means "to disperse throughout".

I just don't see it happening. The market is always unpredictable, especially now with so many heavy hitters coming. I took MSFTs side because they seem to have the best holiday line up right now. I don't see Wii breaking that stride this year. It's not like I'm saying the PSP will outsell the DS this year. That would be madness.

Edit: Someone has to side with me, come on you know you want to. It's not as crazy as you guys think.

If Nintendo doesn't increase their shipments at all, and Halo 3 + $350 premium cause the best holiday season an Xbox has ever seen, it's possible.

In it's lifetime, it's indeed possible, but if Smash turns out to be online, I can see it having long, long legs.

Even if it doesn't, SSBM already had huge legs. It stuck around top GCN game sales as long as we saw them.

Simple question: Is the 360 tracking ahead of the original Xbox based on time and by how much?

Yes. In the US and Japan it's ahead of where Xbox was at the same age, though by a fairly meager amount. Worldwide the comparison looks even better, since it didn't take X360 so many months to get released worldwide.

I know shipped != sold, but it's much easier to use this than to try and do a detailed retro breakdown like has been done in this thread.
Xbox shipments as of June 30, 2003 (592 days from launch): 9.4 million
X360 shipments as of June 30, 2007 (585 days from launch): 11.6 million

 

[borghe]

But Wii will have passed 360 worldwide within the month. September onwards they only need to keep up to stay ahead, and considering they're doing 3-4 times better than just keeping up right now..

no possible way do I see Wii surpassing 360 WW in a month. Japan isn't a big enough monthly gap to do it on its own, and it's damn possible that 360 will outsell Wii in September on Halo 3.

I will be genuinely surprised if Wii is ahead by the end of August. Even going by the numbers pulled from this thread, Japan is only 270K/month lead, US is ~100-130K/month, and PAL is maybe 150K or so. given its best months ever that is only 550K and it's 700K behind. No way it'll happen in August, and as I said, 360 just might outsell Wii in September.. If that happens September might be as low as 400K. Depending on if 360 outsells it and by how much, 360 could still hold the lead into October...

 

[Version 3.0]

By the end of the year, worldwide, the Wii won't just have a lead, it'll have a large lead, over a million, maybe two. It'd take a miracle for that not to happen--something like Halo 3 hitting big in Japan, or Nintendo having no extra holiday stock.

The more interesting question, being less predictable, is whether the 360 can take back some ground in North America. It should win September, but Nov and Dec could go either way; there are just too many unknowns and too much potentially huge games.

 

[Jokeropia]

no possible way do I see Wii surpassing 360 WW in a month. Japan isn't a big enough monthly gap to do it on its own, and it's damn possible that 360 will outsell Wii in September on Halo 3.

I will be genuinely surprised if Wii is ahead by the end of August. Even going by the numbers pulled from this thread, Japan is only 270K/month lead, US is ~100-130K/month, and PAL is maybe 150K or so. given its best months ever that is only 550K and it's 700K behind. No way it'll happen in August, and as I said, 360 just might outsell Wii in September.. If that happens September might be as low as 400K. Depending on if 360 outsells it and by how much, 360 could still hold the lead into October...

Going by the numbers in this thread, Wii is 650k behind and this only includes US sales through June. In June, the difference in NA + Japan alone was 550k.

 

[Guy Legend]

The more interesting question, being less predictable, is whether the 360 can take back some ground in North America. It should win September, but Nov and Dec could go either way; there are just too many unknowns and too much potentially huge games.

The main factor in this will be the amount of Wii in stock. Nintendo will sell every Wii they have for sale during the holidays. Whether they have enough units to sell to be number 1 will be the question.

 

[borghe]

the only way MS can gain back any ground in US other than September is if Nintendo has mass shortages this holiday. 360 should easily hit at least 1M for either one or both months this holiday. Depending on how far over 1M the 360 goes, if Nintendo doesn't have sufficient stock to outpace it, 360 could make up some ground.

but yeah, Wii will easily be ahead of 360 WW by November and should keep that lead as long as Nintendo has enough stock to keep ahead of November and December sales.

Going by the numbers in this thread, Wii is 650k behind and this only includes US sales through June. In June, the difference in NA + Japan alone was 550k.

right, but I'm taking into account that by the end of this month we won't have August's numbers, and by the end of next month we won't have September's numbers, etc. actually that kind of messes everything up... hmm..

I guess while Wii will technically take the lead by the end of this month, it won't be confirmed until midle-to-end of September.. I guess that's what I was thinking/saying.

 

[Jokeropia]

Ah, ok.

 

[koam]

People seem to forget that the 360 is STILL expensive. 1 million a month in NA at the current price seems a bit optimistic.