Galaxy has a chance. I think the main question with this game is: with NSMB, have the Japanese begun to accept Mario again? If Galaxy sells like NSMB in Japan and only does Sunshine numbers in America and Europe, it's already at ten million. I don't know if it'll sell like NSMB there, but I definitely think we'll see more growth in the other two territories. In fact, I think Galaxy could be a revitilization for the main series worldwide that we haven't seen since Mario 64, perhaps even outselling that.legend166 said:As more and more times goes on, and the more and more numbers we get, am I the only one that thinks that Smash and Galaxy are absolutely going to clean house this Christmas? I mean, I wouldn't put it past both of them to outsell Halo 3 worldwide. Quite handily, infact.
Mar, apujanata, AlternativeUser, and Taurus as well.RiskyChris said:Wow, so "Xisiqomelir, Segata Sanshiro, moku, Auron, and Xeke" are all in on this bet too? Christ. Hope Nintendo is at least holding back enough stock to double their average monthly sales.
Put me on Ever's side.Segata Sanshiro said:Mar, apujanata, AlternativeUser, and Taurus as well.
Okay, it's sealed. If 360 still holds its worldwide lead at the end of 2007, Xisiqomelir, moku, Auron, Xeke, Mar, apujanata, AlternativeUser, Taurus, and myself each get a one-month timeout. If the Wii overtakes it and holds it at the end of 2007, EverSoTrendy gets a one-month timeout.
Doesn't anyone want to join EverSoTrendy on his suicide march?
Screw that!legend166 said:We should make it so that for every member who is against the opposite side, they get a month. So, Trendy will get a 9 months ban as it stands.
Haha.
SSBB will at least sell 6 million, but probably a lot more, since it userbase wll be higher than GC by next year. Halo3 i don't know if it will go much further than 8 millions.Mgoblue201 said:SSBB is a little different. Melee sold around Halo, but Halo 2 beat it out by a good margin. SSBB will have to show some good growth in order to do this. With the Wii's user base, it could be possible. But Halo 3 will probably sell at least eight million, perhaps more, and I don't know if Brawl can take that next step up. If I had a guess, I'd say Galaxy>Halo 3>Brawl, but it could go any way depending on several factors.
Hell no :lol, i would even join the Wii's side if i didn't have a ban bet going on that time too..Segata Sanshiro said:Doesn't anyone want to join EverSoTrendy on his suicide march?
Oh boy, good luck. But anyway... 1 month just reading GAF is not that bad.. you still laugh a lot..Thunder Monkey said:Put me on Ever's side.
Wait up, that's not quite what the terms were; the terms were for the 360 to lead at the end of the year. In theory the Wii could overtake the 360 and then Halo 3 could boost 360 sales once again to pass the Wii.Thunder Monkey said:Put me on Ever's side.
Sure I think he's a tard for taking the bet, when all signs point to him being wrong completely and utterly wrong, but he's getting piled on pretty hard.
Chivalrous and partially retarded monkey throws his hat in.
Hell Mr EverSoTrendy as early as the end of this month we could be banned.
On the current 9.7 million userbase?Mgoblue201 said:But Halo 3 will probably sell at least eight million, perhaps more
Not really:mclem said:Wait up, that's not quite what the terms were; the terms were for the 360 to lead at the end of the year. In theory the Wii could overtake the 360 and then Halo 3 could boost 360 sales once again to pass the Wii.
Indeed, I personally think that that bit's quite likely. Not definite - I won't be throwing any bets around - but certainly a plausible state of affairs. The question is what happens *after* that; my money's on the Wii pulling back the lead over Christmas.
Either way: No-one should get banned until the deadline.
And anyway, Wii will outsell x360 easily this holidays. The best Microsoft does in NA, Wii will beat with the help of Japan.EverSoTrendy said:Who wants to bet a month ban that the Wii won't surpass the X360 in sales this year? Meaning ending in the last quarter.
That was my line of thinking. Melee sold about 6.5 million, and Brawl will sell more just by extension of the Wii's userbase. But I don't think Halo 3 will do any worse than 2, so that means Brawl will have to grow by at least 1.5 million if not more. I think it can. I'd even give it a very good chance. I just don't want to go out on a limb and predict a huge break through like that.felipeko said:SSBB will at least sell 6 million, but probably a lot more, since it userbase wll be higher than GC by next year. Halo3 i don't know if it will go much further than 8 millions.
I guess the original supposition talked about just holiday sales, although I went off on a tangent about total sales, as that's much more interesting. Holiday sales are affected by too many factors, but on the software side of things, total sales are much more relevant. I expect the 360 to ultimately do better than the Xbox anyway. Halo 2 had about a 33% tie in ratio I think (and it's closer to 40% just counting America). That's pretty astounding.E-phonk said:On the current 9.7 million userbase?
What have been "exceptional" tie ratios for the last five year?
felipeko said:Not really:
And anyway, Wii will outsell x360 easily this holidays. The best Microsoft does in NA, Wii will beat with the help of Japan.
Cool cool then.mclem said:Wait up, that's not quite what the terms were; the terms were for the 360 to lead at the end of the year. In theory the Wii could overtake the 360 and then Halo 3 could boost 360 sales once again to pass the Wii.
Indeed, I personally think that that bit's quite likely. Not definite - I won't be throwing any bets around - but certainly a plausible state of affairs. The question is what happens *after* that; my money's on the Wii pulling back the lead over Christmas.
Either way: No-one should get banned until the deadline.
Thunder Monkey said:Cool cool then.
I can live with that.
And let it be known. I think the Wii will be the market leader by a long shot by Jan 1st. By May I expect it to be closing in on PS3 and 360 combined numbers. He bit off more then he could chew. Knowing pretty much nothing about the actual numbers, and just how perilous it's becoming for the 360 against the Wii.
The lead has all but evaporated and I expect the Wii to still continue selling like it has (everything they ship) for many many months to come. The 360 might see boosts here and there (Halo for one) but I don't see any reason why it will harm the Wii in America. One console running on launch hype, the other running on a software release.
It was a an idiots bet, but hell I've jumped off from much higher things.
Mgoblue201 said:I guess the original supposition talked about just holiday sales, although I went off on a tangent about total sales. I expect the 360 to ultimately do better than the Xbox anyway. Halo 2 had about a 33% tie in ratio I think (and it's closer to 40% just counting America). That's pretty astounding.
A month?Xeke said:But you've probably never landed as hard as you are going to this time.
Segata Sanshiro said:Yes, I believe the spirit of the bet means whoever is holding the lead at the end of the year. Anything else...would be uncivilized.
I think there's a possibility Halo3 do a little worse because the higher price (i know it will get cuts, but still higher than last gen)... And every Wii game is getting a hell of a bust on sales... It looks like every Nintendo game is an AAA game on sales now...Mgoblue201 said:That was my line of thinking. Melee sold about 6.5 million, and Brawl will sell more just by extension of the Wii's userbase. But I don't think Halo 3 will do any worse than 2, so that means Brawl will have to grow by at least 1.5 million if not more. I think it can. I'd even give it a very good chance. I just don't want to go out on a limb and predict a huge break through like that.
Segata Sanshiro said:Yes, I believe the spirit of the bet means whoever is holding the lead at the end of the year. Anything else...would be uncivilized.
Didn't Halo 2 sell something of 2 million of its 6 million American sales in its first week? In the short term, I think Halo is immensely popular. A game like GTA might be more popular, but Halo certainly has a more hardcore following that would buy it day one. Whether SSB passes it or not depends largely on how much it grows, and I think online would be a part of that. It's just very hard to predict with the Wii. You can make some sort of comparison between the Xbox and 360 and predict what Halo 3's going to do. But things have fluctuated so wildly between the GC and Wii that I find it somewhat difficult to predict what Brawl will do, whether talking just this holiday or over the course of their lifetimes. Japan is the biggest question mark. They ignored a lot of Nintendo franchises on the GC, but I can see them gaining millions of new fans just from that country alone.E-phonk said:In it's lifetime, it's indeed possible, but if Smash turns out to be online, I can see it having long, long legs. Halo3 might be a lot more frontloaded in comparison, hurting it in the long run in absolute numbers.
felipeko said:By the way... With that new article about Wii outselling by 4:1 in UK, isn't safe to assume that Europe numbers should be higher (than 2.2) by now?
According to their Financial Results, they had 2.5 million shipped to "other" by june
I think there's a possibility Halo3 do a little worse because the higher price (i know it will get cuts, but still higher than last gen)... And every Wii game is getting a hell of a bust on sales... It looks like every Nintendo game is an AAA game on sales now...
I believe they're very close in America, although I think the 360 will begin to distinguish itself. The Xbox was only doing like 150k a month during this point in the 360's life cycle. Don't ask me about Europe. I don't have any numbers.skinnyrattler said:Simple question: Is the 360 tracking ahead of the original Xbox based on time and by how much?
I tried to make a bet but no one took it.legend166 said:As more and more times goes on, and the more and more numbers we get, am I the only one that thinks that Smash and Galaxy are absolutely going to clean house this Christmas? I mean, I wouldn't put it past both of them to outsell Halo 3 worldwide. Quite handily, infact.
schuelma said:Alright, I'm in on this bet, on the side of everything good and holy (i.e Segata).
I think this is the safest bet I've ever made..I see no conceivable way the 360 is still at the top by the end of the year.
schuelma said:Well, based on the newest Europe quasi numbers leaked out, I'm revising my monthly Wii projections to 350-375K a month now. PS3 downwards to 75K a month, 360 holding steady at 100K.
Hcoregamer00 said:I said WOW if it is anything close to reality.
schuelma said:Adding in the new Aussie numbers and my new Europe projections based on the U.K numbers...I have Wii about 130K behind. For my own personal takeover watch, by next Thursday Wii will have overtaken 360 (N.A July exact figures, Europe July partial guess, Japan middle of August exact, Aussie July exact).
Segata Sanshiro said:Mar, apujanata, AlternativeUser, and Taurus as well.
Okay, it's sealed. If 360 still holds its worldwide lead at the end of 2007, Xisiqomelir, moku, Auron, Xeke, Mar, apujanata, AlternativeUser, Taurus, and myself each get a one-month timeout. If the Wii overtakes it and holds it at the end of 2007, EverSoTrendy gets a one-month timeout.
Doesn't anyone want to join EverSoTrendy on his suicide march?
You're talking NA only, right?borghe said:hmm... I don't think either bet is really safe. IF Wii can maintain its amazing momentum through the holidays against the 360/GH3/RB/Halo3 it will definitely beat 360 worldwide before the end of the year.... but that bolded part is pretty tough competition... of course Wii will easily outsell the 360 this holiday, but the 360 is going to see a massive sales jump on a killer lineup, two of which are exclusive to the system between the two. Basically I don't think it's anywhere near a lock that the Wii will outsell the 360 by enough units to overtake the lead. It's possible, but I don't think it's as safe a bet as many of you are believing it is.
My personal prediction is: It will be close. If Wii takes the lead it will be by less than 200K, and if Wii doesn't take the lead it will be by less than 100K.
Thunder Monkey said:I just don't want to see the retarded kid get picked on.
schuelma said:Well, based on the newest Europe quasi numbers leaked out, I'm revising my monthly Wii projections to 350-375K a month now. PS3 downwards to 75K a month, 360 holding steady at 100K.
yeah, I'm talking NA only. But Wii can't outsell 360 WW alone on Japan thanks to the US lead and even the Europe lead. It is going to have to continue to sell at least 50% more through the holidays in the rest of the world to easily beat the 360, and that's including japan. Again certainly possible, maybe even probable. However, far from guaranteed.felipeko said:You're talking NA only, right?
Because X360 lineup wont hold much water out of NA.
Nintendo can outsell X360 WW in Japan alone (they're doing it monthly, aren't they?) with WiiSports/WiiFit/WiiMusic/SSBB/SMG combo.
It's not going to happen because Nintendo won't ship enough, they have to care about 3 territories... But Japan guarantee that they're goin go to pass 360 WW, just because 360 is non-existente there, and Nintendo have that 20 million market almost alone.borghe said:yeah, I'm talking NA only. But Wii can't outsell 360 WW alone on Japan thanks to the US lead and even the Europe lead. It is going to have to continue to sell at least 50% more through the holidays in the rest of the world to easily beat the 360, and that's including japan. Again certainly possible, maybe even probable. However, far from guaranteed.
borghe said:hmm... I don't think either bet is really safe. IF Wii can maintain its amazing momentum through the holidays against the 360/GH3/RB/Halo3 it will definitely beat 360 worldwide before the end of the year.... but that bolded part is pretty tough competition... of course Wii will easily outsell the 360 this holiday, but the 360 is going to see a massive sales jump on a killer lineup, two of which are exclusive to the system between the two.
Of course Wii has exclusives, and they will sell huge.. I'm just saying that right now Wii is outselling the 360 around 1.5:1 in america.. I think that's going to drop. I really don't see Wii being able to hit much more than 1.?M a month in November and December thanks to hardware shortages. and if 360 hits 1M a month in either or both of those months, that is really going to cut down on the rate that the Wii is catching up.mclem said:If you're touting exclusives, then don't forget the simple fact that the Wii has a few exclusives of its own on the way;
But Wii will have passed 360 worldwide within the month. September onwards they only need to keep up to stay ahead, and considering they're doing 3-4 times better than just keeping up right now..borghe said:edit - In other words I think that the 1.5:1 lead the Wii has enjoyed for months now will likely drop to maybe 1.25-1.3:1 come the holidays. After the holidays it will of course jump back up again. But the question in this thread is is that drop going to affect if it can overtake 360 WW by 12/31?
I think the word you're looking for is decimate, as opposed to one that means "to disperse throughout".Vagabundo said:The wild card here is, of course, how much stock Nintendo has in reserve and how much they can produce. Wii demand will disseminate the 360, Do It Nintendo.
If Nintendo doesn't increase their shipments at all, and Halo 3 + $350 premium cause the best holiday season an Xbox has ever seen, it's possible.EverSoTrendy said:I just don't see it happening. The market is always unpredictable, especially now with so many heavy hitters coming. I took MSFTs side because they seem to have the best holiday line up right now. I don't see Wii breaking that stride this year. It's not like I'm saying the PSP will outsell the DS this year. That would be madness.
Edit: Someone has to side with me, come on you know you want to. It's not as crazy as you guys think.
Even if it doesn't, SSBM already had huge legs. It stuck around top GCN game sales as long as we saw them.E-phonk said:In it's lifetime, it's indeed possible, but if Smash turns out to be online, I can see it having long, long legs.
Yes. In the US and Japan it's ahead of where Xbox was at the same age, though by a fairly meager amount. Worldwide the comparison looks even better, since it didn't take X360 so many months to get released worldwide.skinnyrattler said:Simple question: Is the 360 tracking ahead of the original Xbox based on time and by how much?
no possible way do I see Wii surpassing 360 WW in a month. Japan isn't a big enough monthly gap to do it on its own, and it's damn possible that 360 will outsell Wii in September on Halo 3.Jokeropia said:But Wii will have passed 360 worldwide within the month. September onwards they only need to keep up to stay ahead, and considering they're doing 3-4 times better than just keeping up right now..
Going by the numbers in this thread, Wii is 650k behind and this only includes US sales through June. In June, the difference in NA + Japan alone was 550k.borghe said:no possible way do I see Wii surpassing 360 WW in a month. Japan isn't a big enough monthly gap to do it on its own, and it's damn possible that 360 will outsell Wii in September on Halo 3.
I will be genuinely surprised if Wii is ahead by the end of August. Even going by the numbers pulled from this thread, Japan is only 270K/month lead, US is ~100-130K/month, and PAL is maybe 150K or so. given its best months ever that is only 550K and it's 700K behind. No way it'll happen in August, and as I said, 360 just might outsell Wii in September.. If that happens September might be as low as 400K. Depending on if 360 outsells it and by how much, 360 could still hold the lead into October...
Leondexter said:The more interesting question, being less predictable, is whether the 360 can take back some ground in North America. It should win September, but Nov and Dec could go either way; there are just too many unknowns and too much potentially huge games.
right, but I'm taking into account that by the end of this month we won't have August's numbers, and by the end of next month we won't have September's numbers, etc. actually that kind of messes everything up... hmm..Jokeropia said:Going by the numbers in this thread, Wii is 650k behind and this only includes US sales through June. In June, the difference in NA + Japan alone was 550k.