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[TS-08]

They're absolutely not, though.

Someone who came up 100 times with runners in scoring position and got a hit 80 times is significantly more valuable than someone who came up 400 times with runners in scoring position and only got a hit 100 of those times. The fact that the first player may only have 60 RBIs and the second player may have 175 RBIs - and people valuing the 2nd player over the 1st - is the issue with RBIs, whereas BA with RISP would show that the first player had an 0.800 BA with RISP while the 2nd player had a 0.200 BA with RISP.




Yes - but with different meanings and interpretations.

I'm really not going to have this debate. It's an interesting stat, but basically any research I've seen on the topic shows that BA with RISP has little to do with determining a player's ability to create runs and it's not in any way a significant meansurement of a player's value. You can do your own homework here. I'm not doing it for you.

 

[Earthbound64]

I'm really not going to have this debate.

Alright, I guess that's the end of that then.

You can do your own homework here. I'm not doing it for you.

I've done plenty of it already, thanks.
And, I wouldn't want you to do it for me.

 

[dickroach]

RBIs are the worst stat ever. no one cares about them anymore.
OPS is the best stat ever, but there's still too many older BBWAA guys that don't look at it.
Trout is the best player ever, but he's so good that no one can even see him anymore.

the only way to win the MVP is to lead in BA, HR, or both. (or have an insanely good year as a SP i guess)
I think a 350 average is way more impressive than 50 HRs this year, especially when that .350 comes with 20+ HR and 30+ SB. oh, and from a second baseman.

 

[TS-08]

Alright, I guess that's the end of that then.



I've done plenty of it already, thanks.
And, I wouldn't want you to do it for me.

Find me some reputable publications from the past five years that conclude, with evidence, that it is a valuable stat and I will reconsider. But I will provide the articles and and such that describe it as mostly useless, and then maybe we can have an informed debate that doesn't feel like it's taking place in 1993.

 

[captmcblack]

Judge's first half was so consistently OP, so absurd, that his slump dropped his season stats from ungodly to merely Barry Bonds level.

 

[Earthbound64]

the only way to win the MVP is to lead in BA, HR, or both. (or have an insanely good year as a SP i guess)

*Depending on the year and the writers' whims, when they might decide to give it to someone with a worse BA and fewer HRs, among many other things, because reasons.

 

[dickroach]

Judge's first half was so consistently OP, so absurd, that his slump dropped his season stats from ungodly to merely Barry Bonds level.

Barry Bonds was ungodly. every time I go back and look at his career stats my jaw drops

*Depending on the year and the writers' whims, when they might decide to give it to someone with a worse BA and fewer HRs, among many other things, because reasons.

exactly!

 

[captmcblack]

Barry Bonds was ungodly. every time I go back and look at his career stats my jaw drops

Nothing was more ridiculous than those early-2000s Bonds seasons. The sheer fear of him entering the batters box for what was almost certain to be extra bases every time...incredible.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

Judge's first half was so consistently OP, so absurd, that his slump dropped his season stats from ungodly to merely Barry Bonds level.

This is an insult to the greatness of Bonds, good sir!

 

[Earthbound64]

Nothing was more ridiculous than those early-2000s Bonds seasons. The sheer fear of him entering the batters box for what was almost certain to be extra bases every time...incredible.

Or an intentional walk.

 

[dickroach]

.609 OBP in '04
the fuck even is that

 

[Malo]

.609 OBP in '04
the fuck even is that

Nearly as high as Judge's slugging percentage this season.

Bonds was the ultimate lifeform.

 

[TS-08]

Didi and Sanchez are more well-rounded hitters than Judge. How is the second best hitter in the league getting all of these strikeouts? An out is an out but a hard grounder to short is more telling than a three pitch strikeout. Judge was a sub .200 hitter, batted ninth and scrapped 2 home runs last year. He’s not even in consideration for talking about best hitters in the league until he can accumulate several years of success.

Even this year, Goldy, Murphy, Ramirez, Altuve, Trout - all better hitters this year.

Judge gets on base more often and gets more bases per hit than everyone you mentioned outside of Trout. And that's the simplified version. In no way shape or form are any other those other guys better hitters this year. And I was not alking about anything except 2017.

Some of you are just not making good arguments, because you don't know the numbers. Striking out a ton just doesn't negate these stats.

 

[jman2050]

Judge is in aggregate the second best hitter in baseball this year. There’s not really a good debate to argue otherwise.

 

[thewaffles]

The fact that Trout has played 40 fewer games than the leaders, and in my opinion, still has a legitimate case for MVP, is astounding to me. That dude is so damn good.

As of today, Altuve is still my MVP. A continued strong final 6 could tip that to Judge though. Honestly though I think most of the writers are going to see that first 5 in Judge's HR numbers and vote for him based on that. Especially if he creeps even closer to 60 in the next 6.

 

[captmcblack]

Like, he's actually top 5 in *every* offensive or win-related stat, standard or sabermetric except AVG.

And his D is rated well in similar fashion. What more could you want? Yeah, he should strike out less, but he's super tall..and a rookie.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

.609 OBP in '04
the fuck even is that

Obligatory links to:

Barry Bonds Was An Alien God Who Destroyed Space-Time To Bring Us Joy

What if Barry Bonds had played without a baseball bat?

Barry Bonds wasn't half bad either

At What Age Would Barry Bonds Finally Be The Worst Hitter In Baseball?

 

[talisayNon]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0

will be on top of nerd stats after today.

what exactly is the argument against him winning ROY and MVP again?

 

[captmcblack]

That Bonds video is sooooooooo dope, lmao. We had a Barry Bonds thread a little while ago expounding on that video.

So good.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

That Bonds video is sooooooooo dope, lmao. We had a Barry Bonds thread a little while ago expounding on that video.

So good.

Yankees should've signed Bonds as a DH to close out his career.

 

[jman2050]

That .967 OBP on 3-0 counts is just stupid.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

So will Judge be able to maintain this next season, or will the dreaded sophomore slump kick in?

 

[esmith08734]

Judge gets on base more often and gets more bases per hit than everyone you mentioned outside of Trout. And that's the simplified version. In no way shape or form are any other those other guys better hitters this year. And I was not alking about anything except 2017.

Some of you are just not making good arguments, because you don't know the numbers. Striking out a ton just doesn't negate these stats.

The base argument is redundant. A solo home run in the 5th inning of a 9-3 game nets more bases than a two run double in the 8th of a 1 run game. You’re saying the the home run is a more valuable hit?

Striking out doesn’t negate stats but it’s the least productive out on the field. Plus, a right-handed hitter that hits a two hopper to the shortstop knows he just was on-top of the ball but his timing was right. Whaling at an 0-2 pitch in the dirt reeks of a lack of discipline, confidence, and comfort - which Judge did a whole lot this summer.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

So will Judge be able to maintain this next season, or will the dreaded sophomore slump kick in?

Who the hell knows. I think all you can take from this season is that when he’s seeing the ball well enough to connect, he hits home runs. They are utterly effortless for him.

 

[Earthbound64]

Striking out doesn’t negate stats but it’s the least productive out on the field.

I'd say hitting into a triple play is less productive on the field.

 

[evil solrac v3.0]

If only writers were actually consistent about what they were voting for.

robots is the answer then.

Yeah, that's pretty much the stereotypical Yankee fan there.
"Don't pay attention until the end of the season if the Yankees are going to make the playoffs."

So glad I don't have to deal with my (former) in-laws anymore.

the same could be said of many fandoms, but unlucky for you Yankees are not one of them as you well know from this board and other places. don't use your in-laws as the brush to paint all Yankee fans with.

the Astros would not have locked up the West in like fucking June if it wasn't for Altuve

it's the AL West, a half crippled team would have wrapped up that division in June.

Didi and Sanchez are more well-rounded hitters than Judge. How is the second best hitter in the league getting all of these strikeouts? An out is an out but a hard grounder to short is more telling than a three pitch strikeout. Judge was a sub .200 hitter, batted ninth and scrapped 2 home runs last year. He’s not even in consideration for talking about best hitters in the league until he can accumulate several years of success.

Even this year, Goldy, Murphy, Ramirez, Altuve, Trout - all better hitters this year.

you contradicted your own argument. Judge gets on base at a far higher clip than both of those. and who cares if he strikes out 200 times when he hits .280, has 100 walks and hit the ball at 120 miles per hour? and what does last year have to do with anything? it was a cup of coffee at most. he's in the MVP and ROY conversation right now.

 

[Earthbound64]

robots is the answer then.

Robots all up in here.

the same could be said of many fandoms, but unlucky for you Yankees are not one of them as you well know from this board and other places. don't use your in-laws as the brush to paint all Yankee fans with.

Hence why I said "the stereotypical."

 

[TS-08]

The base argument is redundant. A solo home run in the 5th inning of a 9-3 game nets more bases than a two run double in the 8th of a 1 run game. You’re saying the the home run is a more valuable hit?

Striking out doesn’t negate stats but it’s the least productive out on the field. Plus, a right-handed hitter that hits a two hopper to the shortstop knows he just was on-top of the ball but his timing was right. Whaling at an 0-2 pitch in the dirt reeks of a lack of discipline, confidence, and comfort - which Judge did a whole lot this summer.

In terms of a player's individual value in the aggregate, yes, the home run is more important.

Edit - the base argument is not redundant, holy shit. Do you not know the difference between OBP and Slugging Percentage?

 

[jacobs34]

Oof. Reading this thread feels like taking a time machine to a place where we had no fangraphs or baseball-reference.

What Judge has done this season, as a rookie, has been remarkable. To see his name at the top of WAR list next to guys like Jose Altuve, Anthony Rendon and Giancarlo Stanton, after the years these guys have had, is nuts.

I've been watching the Yankees for over 25 years now, and there has been nothing like the Aaron Judge experience in my lifetime.

 

[jman2050]

Yankees should've signed Bonds as a DH to close out his career.

I’m still convinced that he can return to baseball literally today and be at least a starting DH/1B/emergency OF on half the league.

 

[mjp2417]

Whaling at an 0-2 pitch in the dirt reeks of a lack of discipline, confidence, and comfort - which Judge did a whole lot this summer.

Judge looked lost and undisciplined for a quarter of the summer. He looked like Barry fucking Bonds for 3 quarters. Every sane human being would take that over 4 quarters of Didi Gregorious and I love Didi. This is a really bad argument.

 

[Earthbound64]

I’m still convinced that he can return to baseball literally today and be at least a starting DH/1B/emergency OF on half the league.

And similarly I'm convinced that Pedro Martinez could return to Baseball today and still find his way into the starting rotation for many teams.

 

[Malo]

And similarly I'm convinced that Pedro Martinez could return to Baseball today and still find his way into the starting rotation for many teams.

He'd be the O's number 1 starter.

 

[TheDrizzlerJ11]

New Yankee stadium is a joke of a Major League ball park. Wonder what his stats would be like with 80 games in Marlins Park. I know he has Stanton-power, but that park should be repurposed as an NCAA softball stadium. The second half of this season was a Stanton Supernova, idc that his on base was lower especially when you take into account who's behind Stanton compared to who's behind Judge. Pitchers are fine with Judge being a base runner compared to having a man on first for Bour and Ozuna.

 

[Earthbound64]

He'd be the O's number 1 starter.

<checks> Their starter with the highest ERA+ is 101... and they gave 19 starts to someone with an ERA+ of 56... yikes.

New Yankee stadium is a joke of a Major League ball park.

So were their previous stadia.

 

[captmcblack]

New Yankee stadium is a joke of a Major League ball park. Wonder what his stats would be like with 80 games in Marlins Park. The second half of this season was a Stanton Supernova, idc that his on base was lower especially consider when you take into account who's behind Stanton compared to who's behind Judge. Pitchers are fine with Judge being a base runner compared to having a man on first for Bour and Ozuna.

Judge has Gashouse Gorillas level power to all fields, including the deepest parts of Yankee Stadium (the only "joke" part is RF). He also has most of the hardest hit balls all season. He would destroy Marlins Park too, because he and Stanton have similar power.

 

[TheDrizzlerJ11]

Stanton would break Bonds' record if he played in that park.

 

[Earthbound64]

Yankee Stadium (the only "joke" part is RF)

"the only 'joke' part is 1/3 of it."

 

[esmith08734]

In terms of a player's individual value in the aggregate, yes, the home run is more important.

Edit - the base argument is not redundant, holy shit. Do you not know the difference between OBP and Slugging Percentage?

Yes I do. Aren’t we talking about the most valuable player here, though? Maybe I am old school here.

 

[captmcblack]

"the only 'joke' part is 1/3 of it."

lol, I mean...nothing else I can say about it. 314 to right and a short wall allows some cheapies - but that's true of everyone batting there for both teams playing. 408 to center ain't cheap, though (which also happens to be about where Marlins Park's CF is).

 

[XiaNaphryz]

You all realize there are stats out there that take ballpark factor in account, right?

 

[Salty Catfish]

Of Judge's 48 HRs (excluding the two today), 43 would have been gone in the majority of stadiums (and the two today were no cheapies, at something like 390 and 410 ft.). Yankee Stadium gives up some cheap ones for sure but that has little to do with Judge's numbers.

 

[TS-08]

Yes I do. Aren’t we talking about the most valuable player here, though? Maybe I am old school here.

You said the bases argument was redundant, referring to a description of both stats.

Edit - and hell, I'll even concede that I didn't describe slugging percentage exactly right. So you know that I will own up to a mistake, but I wonder if you will.

 

[manny10032]

Love and hate the Gif.

Love cause it's Arod

Hate cause that when Mo tore his knee up

 

[jman2050]

New Yankee stadium is a joke of a Major League ball park. Wonder what his stats would be like with 80 games in Marlins Park. I know he has Stanton-power, but that park should be repurposed as an NCAA softball stadium. The second half of this season was a Stanton Supernova, idc that his on base was lower especially when you take into account who's behind Stanton compared to who's behind Judge. Pitchers are fine with Judge being a base runner compared to having a man on first for Bour and Ozuna.

Hmm, you might be on to something. Certainly you wouldn’t think a RH hitter would benefit from the short RF but considering how many of his homers go the other way I don’t think it’s a bad idea to look a bit closer. Who knows, maybe he IS benefitting from the ballpark, which would require us to look at his home run total with a little more scruti—

Oh

 

[17 Seconds]

Right - I said you were in my first reply on the matter.




BA with RISP is a proportional stat.
RBI is a counting stat.

The two are significantly different, and equating the two shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the importance of proportional stats over counting stats.

they are both garbage stats that are mostly out of a players control and have little predictive value. it is inevitable that many players will have better numbers with RISP over the course of a season, but a player has little control over that long-term.

honestly this is a very outdated argument to even be having. the war on antiquated stuff like this ended a long time ago.

 

[17 Seconds]

Didi and Sanchez are more well-rounded hitters than Judge. How is the second best hitter in the league getting all of these strikeouts? An out is an out but a hard grounder to short is more telling than a three pitch strikeout. Judge was a sub .200 hitter, batted ninth and scrapped 2 home runs last year. He’s not even in consideration for talking about best hitters in the league until he can accumulate several years of success.

Even this year, Goldy, Murphy, Ramirez, Altuve, Trout - all better hitters this year.

i'm sorry, but this is just a ridiculous and indefensible take. like, do 5 minutes of research on modern baseball analytics and you'll see that.

 

[TS-08]

i'm sorry, but this is just a ridiculous and indefensible take. like, do 5 minutes of research on modern baseball analytics and you'll see that.

Honestly, you shouldn't even have to look at fangraphs or Baseball-Reference to know this is ridiculous. There are better stats than OPS, but when one guy is at 1.038 and the other is barely over .800, I don't really need to see much else to make an informed decision.

His argument just seems to be: he only strikes out or hits homeruns so he isn't as "well-rounded." That seems to be a lot of people's misconception.

 

[davidwhangchoi]

Judge should never entered the home run derby.

 

[Quixzlizx]

Meaningless is an exaggeration but unless it takes into account runners stranded then it feels like people give it too much weight. Bautista hitting a solo homer after striking out 50 times with 2 runners on base isn't great value. It holds weight but with the strikeout records he's been setting, I would at least take the high number with a grain of salt.

Using RBI to judge batting performance is like using wins to judge pitcher performance.

Alright, I guess that's the end of that then.



I've done plenty of it already, thanks.
And, I wouldn't want you to do it for me.

Back in 1999, maybe. The reason why people value OPS and WRC+ more than they value BA when evaluating offensive performance is because the math has shown that OBP and SLG are more valuable (and also more reliable/consistent indicators of future performance) than BA, because walks and home runs are fielding-independent.

BA w/RISP is just a smaller, less useful sample size of an already disfavored stat.