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Canadian PoliGAF - 42nd Parliament: Sunny Ways in Trudeaupia

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Sean C

Member
Yes, it has happened at the federal level (part of the king-byng affair I believe). And I'm pretty sure at the provincial level as well.
Ontario 1985 is the most recent and relevant precedent. And in that case the Ontario legislature had actually been sitting for a few weeks when the government fell.
 

maharg

idspispopd
This is why I hate British Westminster systems sometimes. Everything is a hodgepodge of customs and traditions. Is there anything that prevents a speaker from being partisan? Other than it being similar to the "nuclear option" in the US Senate where no one wanted to use a simple majority to confirm SCOTUS appointments?

I have a feeling we might find out soon.
 
I feel like this is really reaching. I think it's pretty valid to say that Harper, while he was avoiding a confidence motion, had obtained the right to govern. A lot of people were hoping for the GG to go against that basic fact, including tbh me, but it was always a long shot.

A PM who has literally just failed the first and most important confidence test though? That's a very different matter.

After sleeping on it:

a) I've come around to your way of thinking. The most relevant example here is 1908 Newfoundland, where an effective tie meant no one could command the confidence of the legislature after a speaker was elected, but both parties were given a chance to prove that.

b) I have a surprising amount of residual bitterness over how everything played out in 2008. Why did the Liberal-NDP coalition have to announce itself before the vote, thereby giving time to the Conservatives to delegitimize a perfectly legitimate option? And why did the GG accept Harper's logic, when the Ontario precedent gave her another way? It still infuriates me to this day.

I'm not sure there is a firm convention that an LT is supposed to act on the advice of the Premier (see: Byng) but the LT is supposed to at least ask for the advice of the Premier.

Apparently Clark did request a new election from the LT and was rejected!

Sounds like a certain LG wants to be discussed at the next Commonwealth Speakers Conference!

Seriously, though, it'll be interesting when the full story eventually comes out.

I thought this actually happened at the federal level years and years ago -- whereby a GG actually gave the minority party a chance instead of calling a new election?

Federally, this has only happened the one time, as maharg notes: in 1926, with the King-Byng affair. Just in case there's anyone here who doesn't know what King-Byng was, in a nutshell:
- the Liberal King had been PM going into the 1925 election
- the Conservatives won a plurality of seats
- King vowed to continue on with the support of the Progressives, which he was allowed to do because the PM remains PM until they resign/no longer have the confidence of the House
- King lost a confidence vote in the House, went to the GG Byng, and asked for a new election
- Byng refused and offered the Conservatives a shot at governing
- the Conservatives lost a confidence vote almost immediately, since one constant of Canadian politics from 1920 until 1940 or so was that the were destined to crash and burn every time Arthur Meighen led them
- in the resulting election, King campaigned against the power of the Crown to overrule the PM's advice, and won a new mandate, which people have generally taken to indicate that the Crown (be it the GG or the LG) is expected to act on the advice of the Governor-in-Council (that is, the First Minister and his/her cabinet) provided they have the demonstrated confidence of the House.

And that's the only time that power has changed hands federally without a new election. We all remember what Harper did, and even with the opposition signaling they could form a workable coalition, the GG turned them down. Beyond that one time, minority parliaments tend to lead to situations where both the governing party and the opposition party think that they'll win the next election.

Provincially, the example from Ontario is that the PCs had been in power for more than 40 years in 1985, and when they only won a minority in that election, the Liberals and NDP signed an accord promising that they would provide stable government for two years. The LG accepted that argument, and ended the PC dynasty.

There aren't too many other provincial examples, which is why we're in such new territory here.

This is why I hate British Westminster systems sometimes. Everything is a hodgepodge of customs and traditions. Is there anything that prevents a speaker from being partisan? Other than it being similar to the "nuclear option" in the US Senate where no one wanted to use a simple majority to confirm SCOTUS appointments?

Correction: this is what makes Westminster systems so amazing!

Anyway, nothing prevents a Speaker from being partisan, but we've avoided it because our system is geared towards the idea that the legislature should be run in a non-partisan way. There are some people who agree with you, including a former Speaker of the BC legislature, but I feel like Andrew Scheer's time as Speaker -- where he often acted in a pretty blatantly partisan manner -- shows why it's a bad thing.

BC will be an interesting test case, because you're right: it's only custom that stops a Speaker from being partisan, so it could be changed at any time if a party wanted to do so. The challenge would be doing it in a way that doesn't seem like an abuse of Parliament, and I could see a Speaker propping up the government on every vote getting into some pretty dicey waters pretty quickly.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Because the brand new Liberal speaker resigned, the NDP will have to put forward one of their own to be speaker, which will bring things to a 43-43 tie and the Speaker will have to vote with the government to enact new legislation. In radio interviews yesterday persons said they'd use some procedural methods to avoid this, but that was all over my head so I have no idea how viable that plan is.

I imagine the first time this happens out of province conservative commentators in national papers will make a huge deal about the break in convention (eg. Coyne) but locally I suspect almost no one is going to care.

The fact is that the Clark and the Liberals got roasted in Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island due to their dismissive attitude toward all sorts of issues important to those areas. There are lots of people in these areas, regardless of political side, that will be very eager to see shit getting done, and average people are not going to care that getting shit done requires breaking Westminster conventions.

The NDP will have to be very careful about their approach and what legislation they pass when. Due to the most recent Liberal throne speech, which copied heaps of NDP policy, the NDP should be able to shame the Liberals if they don't support legislation the Liberals just proposed. I suspect the public will not mind if the speaker tie breaks in favour of the government on that sort of legislation.

Eventually however there will be a tie break on actual contentious issue (eg. Stopping Site C dam construction) and then public attitude could change.

The partisan speaker tie breaking issue seems to me like one of those things that is ok until it isn't and its hard to say when/why that would happen. I think the NDP have to be careful to not appear to be ramming things through.
 

Sean C

Member
b) I have a surprising amount of residual bitterness over how everything played out in 2008. Why did the Liberal-NDP coalition have to announce itself before the vote, thereby giving time to the Conservatives to delegitimize a perfectly legitimate option? And why did the GG accept Harper's logic, when the Ontario precedent gave her another way? It still infuriates me to this day.
Ontario 1985 didn't really relate to that case. There was little disagreement, even amongst the Conservatives, that had they lost a confidence vote there wouldn't have been another election (which is why Harper was momentarily quite resigned to handing over the keys to 24 Sussex, until he saw the Bloc at the announcement). The issue was whether the GG should police the Commons to the extent of refusing prorogation when there was a confidence matter on the docket.

I personally think she absolutely should have refused, but I get why she took the safe route and followed the PM's advice.

Federally, this has only happened the one time, as maharg notes: in 1926, with the King-Byng affair. Just in case there's anyone here who doesn't know what King-Byng was, in a nutshell:
- the Liberal King had been PM going into the 1925 election
- the Conservatives won a plurality of seats
- King vowed to continue on with the support of the Progressives, which he was allowed to do because the PM remains PM until they resign/no longer have the confidence of the House
- King lost a confidence vote in the House, went to the GG Byng, and asked for a new election
- Byng refused and offered the Conservatives a shot at governing
- the Conservatives lost a confidence vote almost immediately, since one constant of Canadian politics from 1920 until 1940 or so was that the were destined to crash and burn every time Arthur Meighen led them
- in the resulting election, King campaigned against the power of the Crown to overrule the PM's advice, and won a new mandate, which people have generally taken to indicate that the Crown (be it the GG or the LG) is expected to act on the advice of the Governor-in-Council (that is, the First Minister and his/her cabinet) provided they have the demonstrated confidence of the House.
There's a significant detail in the King/Byng affair that isn't listed here, which is that when King first informed the GG that he planned to continue in office and they discussed the matter, Byng came away thinking that King had agreed that if King subsequently lost a confidence vote, Meighen would be allowed to take office; whereas King apparently came away thinking the opposite. So when King eventually did lose a confidence vote, Byng thought he was trying to welch on their agreement.
 
There's a significant detail in the King/Byng affair that isn't listed here, which is that when King first informed the GG that he planned to continue in office and they discussed the matter, Byng came away thinking that King had agreed that if King subsequently lost a confidence vote, Meighen would be allowed to take office; whereas King apparently came away thinking the opposite. So when King eventually did lose a confidence vote, Byng thought he was trying to welch on their agreement.

I didn't know this part! Neat.

As an aside, my favourite detail of King-Byng is that after Meighen became PM, he tried naming his entire cabinet on an "Acting" basis to get around the convention that anyone appointed to cabinet had to resign their seat and win in a by-election before taking the position. I don't know when they finally ended that practice, but it's such a wonderfully anachronistic detail.

A relevant article in the Globe today about New Brunswick's experience with having a speaker that votes with the government.

So pretty much what you said a few posts up. I know that abuse of parliament is one of those things that a) is a little subjective, and b) most people don't care about (as was proven pretty conclusively when Harper won a majority in 2011 literally weeks after being found in contempt of Parliament), but I'm still really interested in seeing how the NDP -- and even moreso the Greens, since they claim to do politics differently -- handle it all.

Have any NDPers or Greens said they're interested in being Speaker yet?
 
In the last series of Léger polls in combination of Mainstreet polls. The PQ continues to tank on a downward trend. Votes bleeding toward both the CAQ and QS

the odd part is that the incumbent Liberals continue relatively unphased at the top admist multiple governing misteps after another.

CAQ has solidly taken 2nd place for months as the viable rallying option to oust the Liberals among Quebec voters.

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2017/06/24/sondage-leger-caq-et-qs-en-hausse-le-pq-en-baisse

June 24 2017
PLQ 31% (32 % in May)
CAQ 28 % (26% in May)
PQ 22 % (23% in May) (29% in January)
QS 15% (13% in May)

the best part is the PQ leader's riding of Rosemont is now in play, another PQ leader vulrnerable in their home riding
 
René Lévesque said that political parties that last too long are fated to become shells of their former selves, to lose their way and to be run by opportunists.

The PQ isn't immune from that.
 
René Lévesque said that political parties that last too long are fated to become shells of their former selves, to lose their way and to be run by opportunists.

The PQ isn't immune from that.
overtime, they just become establishment parties of governance.

once a party attains power several times back and forth from opposition to power and back:
that party becomes an establishment party regardless of party colour.

the PQ is guilty at bloating the public sector and inflating unionised civil servants into a crony hive of incompetants who cannot be fired.

the Quebec Liberals are also guilty of the status quo not wanting to rock the public sector and leave it as is

however, the radical-extremist leftist QS wouldn't be a solution either; they want to expand the public sector 10 fold and make it way worse.
 
overtime, they just become establishment parties of governance.

once a party attains power several times back and forth from opposition to power and back:
that party becomes an establishment party regardless of party colour.

the PQ is guilty at bloating the public sector and inflating unionised civil servants into a crony hive of incompetants who cannot be fired.

the Quebec Liberals are also guilty of the status quo not wanting to rock the public sector and leave it as is

however, the radical-extremist leftist QS wouldn't be a solution either; they want to expand the public sector 10 fold and make it way worse.

Indeed. It's why I've never voted for the PQ despite very much being a sovereignist. I never liked the identity politics of the PQ, and I don't understand how they didn't drop that from their platform after the fiasco that was the Marois government.

I've been voting for Option Nationale ever since they were formed and it seems it will remain this way for the foreseeable future.

You can thank me for dividing the sovereignist vote. ;)
 

mo60

Member
In the last series of Léger polls in combination of Mainstreet polls. The PQ continues to tank on a downward trend. Votes bleeding toward both the CAQ and QS

the odd part is that the incumbent Liberals continue relatively unphased at the top admist multiple governing misteps after another.

CAQ has solidly taken 2nd place for months as the viable rallying option to oust the Liberals among Quebec voters.

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2017/06/24/sondage-leger-caq-et-qs-en-hausse-le-pq-en-baisse

June 24 2017
PLQ 31% (32 % in May)
CAQ 28 % (26% in May)
PQ 22 % (23% in May) (29% in January)
QS 15% (13% in May)

the best part is the PQ leader's riding of Rosemont is now in play, another PQ leader vulrnerable in their home riding

Lisee only won his riding by like 4.3% last time. It was always in danger of flipping if the PQ popular support dropped enough in Quebec nationally.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
A relevant article in the Globe today about New Brunswick's experience with having a speaker that votes with the government.
lol giving cushy jobs to Liberals to get them to leave their seats would be a funny solution.

I think the interesting point is that the NDP-Greens will have to be sure that all their members are ready to vote, lest the Liberals catch them off guard.
 

android

Theoretical Magician
lol giving cushy jobs to Liberals to get them to leave their seats would be a funny solution.

I think the interesting point is that the NDP-Greens will have to be sure that all their members are ready to vote, lest the Liberals catch them off guard.
As long as they can fix the money laundering and campaign finance rules the liberals have exploited for 16 years I'm happy. Election reform before the next election could be nice too. And Clark's probably done too which is nice. When someone makes Gordon Campbell look like an angel its pretty bad.
 

Vibranium

Banned
Yeah, I'm going to go with Colby Cosh's prediction that the Rebel Green-NDP Alliance (couldn't resist, heh) will last two years before another election, but if we can fix campaign financing and have successful electoral reform in the meantime I will be happy. And Clark will disappear from leadership.
 

Apathy

Member
In case I'm too drunk, I wanted to wish you guys happy Canada day. I'm an immigrant to the country, been here for 20+ years but I've never felt anything but Canadian. The country let me and my family in when we needed it and was always nothing short of accommodating. I don't always agree with the government, even when they are the ones I voted for, but this country at least let's me vote. While I can criticize the country and I don't mind others doing the same, no matter what I won't ever let anyone speak ill of it's people and the Canadian spirit they carry. I love this country and it's the only one I would die to defend if it ever came to that.

Happy Canada day to all the canucks on GAF wherever you are. From one Canadian to another. Keep your stick on the ice.

PS. Toronto rules, suck it! :D
 

SRG01

Member
Yeah, I'm going to go with Colby Cosh's prediction that the Rebel Green-NDP Alliance (couldn't resist, heh) will last two years before another election, but if we can fix campaign financing and have successful electoral reform in the meantime I will be happy. And Clark will disappear from leadership.

Both of those are low-hanging fruit that the alliance can pass fairly early on. The more contentious ones would be Site C and the new pipelines.

I don't see the alliance actually going through with blocking the pipelines, as that'll open up a huge provincial-federal rift.


edit: Also, happy Canada day!!
 
tGylVl1vmDQ9VY-rLKmOyHi2U4aSFwYs.jpg
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
I know of two friends Trump has now. Trudeau and Putin. Well Putin was a question mark, we don't know if they became not only friends but BEST friends.

Friendship with Putin ended, now I'm friend with Trudeau?
 

Leeness

Member
I know of two friends Trump has now. Trudeau and Putin. Well Putin was a question mark, we don't know if they became not only friends but BEST friends.

Friendship with Putin ended, now I'm friend with Trudeau?

I have a feeling that the friendship isn't mutual lol.

Trudeau probably regards Trump as that "friend" that you have to play nice with, otherwise they'll wreck your shit, when all you want to do is ignore them until they leave.
 

SRG01

Member
I have a feeling that the friendship isn't mutual lol.

Trudeau probably regards Trump as that "friend" that you have to play nice with, otherwise they'll wreck your shit, when all you want to do is ignore them until they leave.

Or the guy that borrows a lawn tool and never gives it back? :p
 
lol, not like the softwood lumber thing just went away.

...or the steel thing. Or the dairy thing. Or the wine thing. Or the border tax thing. Or the preclearance thing. Or the energy thing. Or the NAFTA thing.

I know that a few of these would exist regardless of who was in the White House, but that really is a lot of things.

I really want to tell the President of the United States to go fuck himself somene stop me

DO IT.
 

CazTGG

Member
Or the guy that borrows a lawn tool and never gives it back? :p

He's more like the person who borrows a lawn tool, returns it broken and then blames the non-white neighbours for breaking it.

I really want to tell the President of the United States to go fuck himself somene stop me

66c2355d05b44f308d8a854a7d33bc0f.gif


Anyway, Happy Canada everyone, here's to 150 more years of apologies and ruining pizzas!
 

Mr.Mike

Member
This reminds me of that time our plane couldn't land at Billy Bishop cause there was fog. One of the flight attendants mentioned we'd probably land in either Hamilton or Buffalo, and this was very concerning because one of the people in our group was Jordanian and we didn't know how landing in the US would go. Thankfully we ended up landing in Hamilton and meeting Cory from the Trailer Park Boys, so that was fun.

Happy Canada Day!
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
So Trudeau forgot to mention AB and is getting shit for it. I wish he forgot to mention Quebec instead, just to annoy gutter. lol
 

Apathy

Member
The Con's are going to be using this forever. On the other hand, Alberta doesn't vote liberal, so not much was lost
 
I was born and raised in Alberta, and I can safely say:

Fuck the Alberta Population. 50% are racist, backwards Hicks who think they're God's Gift to Canada, despite contributing nothing but fucking oil. They bitch about Liberal government until they need it, then they yell at the current government for the actions caused by 50+ years of PC Power.
 

CazTGG

Member
The Con's are going to be using this forever. On the other hand, Alberta doesn't vote liberal, so not much was lost

What do you think they'll get more mileage from: This, or forgetting about PC Prime Minister Kim Campbell?

I'd wager Alberta, it'll give The West™ something to unite against i.e. "he doesn't care about us, Scheer does because he's one of us!" or something along those lines.
 
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