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GOP Primary Debate [Iowa 2016] It's over! Get me out of here.
- Thread starter B-Dubs
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Applesauce
Boom! Bitch-slapped!
I'm not very familiar with Ben Carson, Cruz however represents my home state in the senate and unfortunately know what he's all about. He has also compared himself to Galileo, nothing he says will surprise me.
metalslimer
Member
You act like flipping that kind of percentagge in every swing state is ridiculously easy. It's not impossible and would certainly be easier with a pretty moderate republican but this is also the party with trump at the forefront.
airmangataosenai
Member
Moreover, he's ignoring the other smaller third party candidates as well, it wasn't as if Romney was getting 49% of the vote in all of those states.
Not only that, but with demographic changes, we're not looking at those 2012 margins; we're looking at slightly tougher terrain. The white portion of the electorate shrinks by a few percentage points every four years, making the GOP's hill to climb that much steeper.
Romney won 60% of the white vote. This got him just over 200 electoral votes in 2012.
Poppa Bush, too, won 60% of the white vote. This got him over 400 electoral votes in 1988.
The GOP candidates continue to run & position & message as though they're running to be the President of United States v.1988; they're running to lead a country that exists only in their minds. With any luck, they won't figure this out for another Presidential cycle or two.
American Eskimo
Banned
People are really underestimating Trump.
Here's what he brings to the table that no one else does:
Years of reality TV experience.
That's huge! Most of the people on stage are used to pre-planned interviews, soft questions, and a team of handlers.
Trump? The guy lives on snappy one-liners and his modern brand is built around destroying someone with a fireball statement. He is MOST comfortable in front of a television audience.
And guess who wins the debate? Yup, the guy with the one-liner they can replay over and over again! Why do people tune in to this? Because we want to see punches fly, and nothing hits stronger than a Trump style knockout.
On top of that, he's going to be in the middle and he's loud. He WILL shout down anyone and he WILL win.
Remember the Newt? Guy was a complete idiot, but he made himself relevant by taking that position.
And unlike Chris Christie, Trump isnt hurt by being a bully. Why? He has a brand of success. This is America, if you have your name on a dozen hotels and a prime time TV show, you EARNED the right to be loud and rude. Thats the American dream! Be rich and loud.
What has Chris Christie done with his life? Be the governor of a state 99% of the country hates? Fuck that.
Someone is going to come out losing, and it won't be Trump. He's the last guy on stage to have an "oops" or "tiny water bottle" moment.
ON TOP of all that, he has fire power and he's ready to use it.
Walker? Easy.
"If someone asked for a job at my BILLION DOLLAR business, and he showed me your resume of economic failure, i'd look at him and tell him HE'S FIRED"
*thunderous applause*
Jeb? Easy.
"The last thing this country needs is another Bush, ESPECIALLY one who acts as a puppet to corporate interests".
*thunderous applause*
So who comes out winning? Whoever stays out of his line of fire. My guess, Kasich and Carson.
All they have to do is make a couple of reasonable remarks (we need to bring back manufacturing to America!) and look presidential and they will go up in the polls when Walker comes crashing down after being blown off the stage in a Trump fireball.
Mind you, I think the Jr Debate candidates will do ok as well, as they will soak up all the people jumping off the Jeb and Walker trains.
Prediction for Monday polls:
Trump at 38%, everyone else under 10%.
Here's what he brings to the table that no one else does:
Years of reality TV experience.
That's huge! Most of the people on stage are used to pre-planned interviews, soft questions, and a team of handlers.
Trump? The guy lives on snappy one-liners and his modern brand is built around destroying someone with a fireball statement. He is MOST comfortable in front of a television audience.
And guess who wins the debate? Yup, the guy with the one-liner they can replay over and over again! Why do people tune in to this? Because we want to see punches fly, and nothing hits stronger than a Trump style knockout.
On top of that, he's going to be in the middle and he's loud. He WILL shout down anyone and he WILL win.
Remember the Newt? Guy was a complete idiot, but he made himself relevant by taking that position.
And unlike Chris Christie, Trump isnt hurt by being a bully. Why? He has a brand of success. This is America, if you have your name on a dozen hotels and a prime time TV show, you EARNED the right to be loud and rude. Thats the American dream! Be rich and loud.
What has Chris Christie done with his life? Be the governor of a state 99% of the country hates? Fuck that.
Someone is going to come out losing, and it won't be Trump. He's the last guy on stage to have an "oops" or "tiny water bottle" moment.
ON TOP of all that, he has fire power and he's ready to use it.
Walker? Easy.
"If someone asked for a job at my BILLION DOLLAR business, and he showed me your resume of economic failure, i'd look at him and tell him HE'S FIRED"
*thunderous applause*
Jeb? Easy.
"The last thing this country needs is another Bush, ESPECIALLY one who acts as a puppet to corporate interests".
*thunderous applause*
So who comes out winning? Whoever stays out of his line of fire. My guess, Kasich and Carson.
All they have to do is make a couple of reasonable remarks (we need to bring back manufacturing to America!) and look presidential and they will go up in the polls when Walker comes crashing down after being blown off the stage in a Trump fireball.
Mind you, I think the Jr Debate candidates will do ok as well, as they will soak up all the people jumping off the Jeb and Walker trains.
Prediction for Monday polls:
Trump at 38%, everyone else under 10%.
speculawyer
Member
I'm dead from that OP. Masterpiece.
Let's not forget his recent exploits, like cooking bacon on a rifle barrel!
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/04/ted-cruz-sizzles-up-machine-gun-bacon.html
speculawyer
Member
He's the only one of them that wants to do something about climate change.
American Eskimo
Banned
Ive already preordered my pizza. Anyone know where I can download miniature Trump 16 flags?
vicissitudes
Banned
It's not as hard as you think. Just look at the shifts from 08-12:
After a party has been in power for a while, it tends to shift to the other party, at least in the modern, polarized political climate. The country shifted right after 2 terms of Clinton, then left after 2 years of Bush, and now right again after 2 terms of Obama. We're already seeing it happening with 2014.
Here's another interesting statistic for you. Here are the states Obama won with less than 53% of the votes:
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Nevada
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Virginia
Ohio
Florida
Here are the states Romney won with less than 53% of the votes:
North Carolina
The GOP has a very solid block of states while the Democrats barely won off a string of swing states.
speculawyer
Member
It sounds like they are chanting "waste of time" in that song. Which seemed quite appropriate.The music theme makes this thread B-Dubs. Thank you!
OMG that was my question after I read all of that. Wizard.
Black Mamba
Member
You're confusing shift and turnout. Almost 3 million less people voted for a Dem or GOP in 2012.
Romney got nearly the same total votes as McCain, especially when you adjust for voter population growth over 4 years while Obama lost 4 million votes that didn't go onto Romney's column at all.
If anything, 2012 might be the baseline. 2008 was unique in that there was both an economic collapse and a miserable war dogging the GOP AND a first time minority President happening so a bunch of people who normally wouldn't vote did.
Looking at percentages isn't good enough. You also have to compare it to raw totals. Romney essentially equaled McCain 4 years later in raw totals. That signifies no shift in 2012 right at all.
Furthermore, The Dems have won the popular vote in 5 of the last 6 elections. That's a long time. And has they won the electoral in 2000 along with the popular they did win, 2004 probably looks different.
What we're likely seeing if a permanent shift left overall while parts of the country shift right.
You realize Obama won New Mexico by TEN percentage points right?
Just saying he won with less than 53% is saying absolutely nothing.
speculawyer
Member
Ben Carson seems amazingly naive. I listened to an interview with him on PBS Newshour:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/ben-carson-talks-lives-matter-immigration-reform/
He seems to think we can just teach morals and that will cause all our problems to go away. He seems to think that the violence we see in society is some recent phenomenon as if we haven't been violent for our entire history. Actually, we were far more violent in the past than now!
vicissitudes
Banned
First of all, Romney had 1 million votes more than McCain. Second of all, you're assuming, for some reason, that only Democrats had a lower turnout. There was a lower turnout overall in 2012; both parties lost votes. The fact that Romney gained in overall vote shows a large shift to the right. 2014 further cements this.
Saying the Democrats won 4 of the last 6 elections is like saying Bill had no chance in 1992 because the GOP had won 5 of the last 6 elections at that point. Look at a larger picture of history shows many periods of one party dominating for a while then a shift to the other.
It shows that the Democrats only has a slight majority in New Mexico. A lot of votes went to Gary Johnson who is a Libertarian, an ideology that's typically more associated with the GOP.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
First question should be about how to improve mental health care.
Poodlestrike
Banned
And... subscribed. Tomorrow I'm done with classes, gonna order a pizza, kick back and watch me some primo, grade-A entertainment.
BTW, what happened to "Some, I assume, are good people" as a title? If Trump flames out, it's never gonna get its shot in the sun!
BTW, what happened to "Some, I assume, are good people" as a title? If Trump flames out, it's never gonna get its shot in the sun!
Gary Johnson was effectively kicked out of the GOP for being a true libertarian and not a fake one like the Paul's. True libertarianism is hardly something that the modern day GOP associates itself with.
And even giving Romney every single Gary Johnson vote still leaves Obama with a 60k vote cushion. That is not something easy to make up in most cases.
Your arguments are the same ones that have the GOP chasing Pennsylvania and Minnesota every year only to fail and lose.
Don't forget 4 years of demographic changes heading away from the current GOP voting coalition.
Eh, we'll get to it at some point. Considering the stakes right now I thought this was more fitting, besides I couldn't have done a video like I did with that title. Had to go for that GOAT OP status.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Are you Nate Silver?
Anyway, as for the debate I predict a Trump implosion over next 3-4 weeks following the debate. Going from front runner to 5/6 in polls.
vicissitudes
Banned
Hey, it's not just me. 270towin also think so. You've got a Republican governor, and being a border state I think Trump will appeal to certain voting blocks in that state. It's not as liberal as you think.
Last time Penn swung red was in 1988, but so what? Virginia voted Red for 40 years before going blue in 2008. Penn went from a 10.3% Obama margin in 2008 to 5.4% in 2012. 13 House Republicans compared to 5 House Democrats. It's definitely vulnerable in 2016.
Black Mamba
Member
No. Romney had the same vote total once you account for population growth in the 4 years. Romney made no inroads in votes.
Romney basically matched McCain's total in 2008 adjusted for population growth.
Obama lost votes. His turnout was down. The people who didn't vote were people who usually don't vote but did in 2008 because of special circumstances to that election.
(It should also be noted Obama lost a LOT of votes in NY and NJ because of Hurricaine Sandy which depressed turnout greatly).
Go look at the picture you posted. Most of the shift to the right come in very Red states where people who wanted to vote for the first black President or mad about the economic collapse stayed home like usual. All the blue state shifts are really tiny and mostly attributed to lower turnout for Obama's guys, not people switching votes.
2014 is a horrible example. 9 million less people showed up in 2014 compared to 2010. The GOP dominated 2010 MORE than 2012, so where is this shift, exactly? A higher percentage of 2014 voters voted for Dems than in 2010, not less.
You don't understand what "shift" means in electoral politics at all.
Rhomega Beta
Member
Subscribed and ready. Also getting a pizza for tomorrow.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Only 3 states in 2012 could be considered close:
Florida where margin was victory was less than 1%
Ohio where it was around 3%
Virginia where it was around 4% (and that's a stretch)
Rest of the states Obama won by 5%+ margin.
Then you also have to account for population changes since 2012. More old white people have died, Latino population continues to increase, more eligible young voters.
Florida where margin was victory was less than 1%
Ohio where it was around 3%
Virginia where it was around 4% (and that's a stretch)
Rest of the states Obama won by 5%+ margin.
Then you also have to account for population changes since 2012. More old white people have died, Latino population continues to increase, more eligible young voters.
CrazedProfessional
Member
A countdown clock for us internationals? Stream links?
American Eskimo
Banned
It can't be a coincidence that dominoes removed half their coupon offers this week. Pizza orders will be through the roof, get your order in early!
speculawyer
Member
And Minnesota. Heck, they didn't even vote for Reagan.
Orbis Tabula
Member
So, forgive me for my ignorance on this matter but, stupid question time. I don't have cable. I've got an antenna that picks up the over the air channels. Via this antenna, I get my local Fox affiliate. Will they be broadcasting the debate, or will I only be able to watch it on Fox News proper?
American Eskimo
Banned
No hopefully online
vicissitudes
Banned
This is a joke right? In 2012 Obama lost about 4 million and Romney gained about 1 million. You're saying it's because:
- Democrats lost millions of votes while GOP lost no votes at all from 2008
- GOP gained votes from "population growth" but Democrats gained no votes
- All the lost votes from 2012 came from people who only voted in 2008 because Obama is black
Okay, if that's your logic I don't need to respond to any more of your posts.
Oh, btw, here were some shifts to the right from blue states.
Illinois: 9%
Wisconsin: 7%
Michigan: 7%
Delaware: 6%
Nevada: 6%
New Mexico: 5%
Pennsylvania: 5%
Oregon: 5%
vicissitudes
Banned
Anyway, back on topic, bold prediction time: Trump will do better than expected and his polls will go up after the first debate. Other candidates will try to attack him and look silly. Jeb Bush will do worse than expected and lose support.
American Eskimo
Banned
Bold? I already posted as such. If I was at a trump casino I'd bet large money on his polls going up next week
Yup, it's why voter ID is now a thing after such a long time despite virtually no evidence that fraud takes place (well, the kind of fraud the GOP wants to find).
- Silent Generation/ Baby boomers will be dying off over the next 4-5 presidential elections. Those are votes the GOP absolutely can't lose. They're already at a marked disadvantage in the Presidential elections even with these votes.
- White vote percentage will continue to decrease overall.
- Younger millennial population will be coming of voting age over the next 2 presidential elections including this one. Millennials will already be the single largest group in the country before 2016 and they generally trend democrat.
These should be HUGE red flags to the Republicans and their supporters. It will NOT be easy for them to stay the course they're on and expect to win the Presidency now or in the future. And once the rest of the country figures out that they can't govern for shit and that the public actually loves the ACA and want to go further with it, I'd expect the midterms to shift to the left's advantage, but we're probably a decade away from that or more. Gotta wait for more old people to die.
I mean, yeah, it's all about matchups. We could get a particularly shitty Dem nominee (Hilary might be disappointing, but not shitty), but relative to the politics of the majority of the nation, I would argue that every current GOP politician is shitty. Hence, lesser of 2 evils rears its head.
Ok now explain what demographic changes would account for a red Penn like they did for a blue Virginia.
Let me throw this out there. It's out there, but still, let's play with the idea.
Suppose the Bradley Effect still exists. At least with White voters. And now Hillary is running. How many more votes would she get? Blue Dogs and others who refused to vote for Obama?
Orbis Tabula
Member
Curses. I assumed as much. Alright, online it is!
Not to argue the other side, but I wonder what the birth rates are for the red side. Guys like Cruz, Ryan, and Walker aren't boomers, and while these shooters/police are extreme cases, some of them are millenials too.
Plus there's the old joke about people starting out liberal until they "hit the real world".
Plus, don't count out the GOP tilting the rules if they get enough power to.
BIONIC-ARRRMMM!!
Member
How is this fucking real...
LyleLanley
Banned
That laugh at the end was creepy.
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