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GOP Primary Debate [Iowa 2016] It's over! Get me out of here.

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OuterLimits

OuterLimits

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Only 3 states in 2012 could be considered close:

Florida where margin was victory was less than 1%
Ohio where it was around 3%
Virginia where it was around 4% (and that's a stretch)

Rest of the states Obama won by 5%+ margin.

Then you also have to account for population changes since 2012. More old white people have died, Latino population continues to increase, more eligible young voters.
Click to expand...

However, Obama is very likeable and is an amazing campaigner. Hillary has scandals, isn't liked that much. and isn't the best campaigner.

Basically Hillary won't fire up the base like Obama did.

If she actually had anyone decent challenging her in the primary, she would probably lose again.
 
G

GK86

Homeland Security Fail
One of my favorite OPs ever.

I don't think I have enough money for the beer required for the drinking game.
 
V

vicissitudes

Banned
American Eskimo said:
Bold? I already posted as such. If I was at a trump casino I'd bet large money on his polls going up next week
Click to expand...

You'd have to wonder what his ceiling is, if he even has one. He's already so far ahead in such a divided field, it's hard to imagine his polls going up even more. I mean some people still consider him a joke and not a real candidate.

FStubbs said:
Let me throw this out there. It's out there, but still, let's play with the idea.

Suppose the Bradley Effect still exists. At least with White voters. And now Hillary is running. How many more votes would she get? Blue Dogs and others who refused to vote for Obama?
Click to expand...

Well there are so many factors it's silly to focus on one. Obama had unprecedented support among black voters. How much will that go down with Hillary? Or, how many people who voted for Obama are going to stay home because they don't want to vote for a female candidate? It's hard to say for sure.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
vicissitudes said:
This is a joke right? In 2012 Obama lost about 4 million and Romney gained about 1 million. You're saying it's because:

- Democrats lost millions of votes while GOP lost no votes at all from 2008
- GOP gained votes from "population growth" but Democrats gained no votes
Click to expand...

You do realize you're contradicting yourself here, right?

Romney can't gain votes and lose votes at the same time, dude.

- All the lost votes from 2012 came from people who only voted in 2008 because Obama is black
Click to expand...

No, I'm not. I said there were 3 reasons. Unpopular war (Iraq), economic collapse, and historic minority President.

Most of Obama's lost votes were from people who voted in 2008 who normally don't.

2008 had the HIGHEST turnout since 1968. Over 10 million more people voted than 4 years prior. Nearly 30 million more than 8 years prior. 2008 was a UNIQUE election in the post-Vietnam era.


Oh, btw, here were some shifts to the right from blue states.

Illinois: 9%
Wisconsin: 7%
Michigan: 7%
Delaware: 6%
Nevada: 6%
New Mexico: 5%
Pennsylvania: 5%
Oregon: 5%
Click to expand...

You're comparing the numbers to a HISTORICALLY UNIQUE election. Which is why I said 2012 is likely the baseline and the 2008 election was the special random shift.

Look at 2004. Wisconsin was 49-49 and then in 2008 went 56-42. That's a fucking sea change. Michigan 51-48 in 2004, then 57.5-41.

Shifts like that don't occur in 4 years without something unique happening. Which a lot of unique shit happened. Most unpopular war since Vietnam + Great Recession + First Black President.

It is stupid to compare 2012 to 2008 because 2008 was unique. Nothing shifted back. Romney got the same votes as McCain when you account for population growth.

Or put it this way. Romney didn't pick up any additional support than McCain already had. Nobody actually moved to the GOP party.

Here's what happened in 2012. The same people that voted McCain voted Romney. Most of the people that voted Obama voted Obama. The ones that didn't, stayed home.

There was no discernible shift right or left.

edit: Maybe this will help you understand. Nearly 8 million more people voted in 2012 compared to 2004. Romney got over 1 million less votes in 2012 compared to Bush in 2004 despite this.
 
F

Farmboy

Member
vicissitudes said:
Here's another interesting statistic for you. Here are the states Obama won with less than 53% of the votes:

New Mexico
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Nevada
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Virginia
Ohio
Florida

Here are the states Romney won with less than 53% of the votes:

North Carolina


The GOP has a very solid block of states while the Democrats barely won off a string of swing states.
Click to expand...

That conclusion doesn't follow from your 'interesting statistic' at all. What that means is that Obama had a near-clean sweep of the swing states, with the sole exception of North Carolina. That's actually a very strong showing, rather than a sign of trouble.

As far as 'solid blocks of states' go, just look at the states that you don't mention, which are the non-swing states. They add up to 232 EC in blue states, 191 in red states. The conclusion is that the GOP candidate needs to win more swing states to get to 270 than the Democrat. That's a harder path, with demographic developments not at all in the GOP's favor.
 
P

PlayALLtheGames

Banned
Serious question: what is wrong with Scott Walker? Is he as stupid as he acts?

Scoffing at the idea of having a minimum wage for workers as a way to help workers. Lmao, ok. It's logical and demonstrably true, so what the hell is he talking about?

scott-walker-derp.jpg
Click to expand...
 
W

Wolfgunblood Garopa

Member
vicissitudes said:
You'd have to wonder what his ceiling is, if he even has one. He's already so far ahead in such a divided field, it's hard to imagine his polls going up even more. I mean some people still consider him a joke and not a real candidate.
Click to expand...

It would be a historic victory- the first President who behaves like a bratty teenager on twitter.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
PlayALLtheGames said:
Serious question: what is wrong with Scott Walker? Is he as stupid as he acts?

Scoffing at the idea of having a minimum wage for workers as a way to help workers. Lmao, ok. It's logical and demonstrably true, so what the hell is he talking about?
Click to expand...

I almost went with another quote, where one of McCain's senior advisors calls him a dumbass.
 
V

vicissitudes

Banned
Farmboy said:
That conclusion doesn't follow from your 'interesting statistic' at all. What that means is that Obama had a near-clean sweep of the swing states, with the sole exception of North Carolina. That's actually a very strong showing, rather than a sign of trouble.

As far as 'solid blocks of states' go, just look at the states that you don't mention, which are the non-swing states. They add up to 232 EC in blue states, 191 in red states. The conclusion is that the GOP candidate needs to win more swing states to get to 270 than the Democrat. That's a harder path, with demographic developments not at all in the GOP's favor.
Click to expand...

Well, depends on your definition of "barely" I suppose. I don't think it was a razor-margin win or anything. Certainly not as close as 2000. But look, Obama loses 4 states where his margin was ~5% or less and he loses the election. That's pretty close in my opinion.

Hey, I agree GOP has a harder path in 2016. I agree electoral map currently favors the Democrats. I never said differently. I'm just saying there's a real possibility that GOP takes the White House in 2016. Some people here act like they have 0% chance which is silly. It's just not true.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
How do we go from talking about the debate tomorrow night to Swing State Electoral College discussion?

Btw the numbers for whoever posted it mean nothing. The GOP try to play in PA every 4 years and fails every time. Philly has a 500,000+ Democratic advantage that is very hard for the R's to counteract with the rest of the rural state. NM was not even contested last time. Don't believe the Jeb hype in putting it in play next fall. MI might go red eventually but that is cycles away. As for the rest, Democrat don't need either FL or OH. Kerry04+NM+NV+VA and its game over. IA and CO are simply insurance packages in case VA goes south but VA voted 0.02+ left to the national average since FDR. VA has probably become more democratic by now due to the DC/Northern VA suburbs exploding in left leaning populations.

Can the R's still win? yes but it is going to be hard barring a collapse of the democratic nominee(Hillary) and a perfect run of the Republican nominee or they nominate Bernie Sanders.
 
V

vicissitudes

Banned
Well, it was a question of "do any of these goofballs actually have a chance of winning the Presidency?"

It's interesting to me that Trump is leading the GOP field yet he polls much worse against the Democratic potentials.

So let's say Trump doesn't get the nomination - who else could get it? Jeb Bush or Scott Walker right? I'm looking forward to seeing how these two perform in a national debate tomorrow night.
 
R

robochimp

Member
PlayALLtheGames said:
Serious question: what is wrong with Scott Walker? Is he as stupid as he acts?

Scoffing at the idea of having a minimum wage for workers as a way to help workers. Lmao, ok. It's logical and demonstrably true, so what the hell is he talking about?
Click to expand...

He is an idiot, and he doesn't look both ways before crossing the street in the middle of a block. I almost ran him over back in 2004.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
vicissitudes said:
Well, depends on your definition of "barely" I suppose. I don't think it was a razor-margin win or anything. Certainly not as close as 2000. But look, Obama loses 4 states where his margin was ~5% or less and he loses the election. That's pretty close in my opinion.

Hey, I agree GOP has a harder path in 2016. I agree electoral map currently favors the Democrats. I never said differently. I'm just saying there's a real possibility that GOP takes the White House in 2016. Some people here act like they have 0% chance which is silly. It's just not true.
Click to expand...

I already responded to this, and you ignored it :(

5% is not that close. 5% is 10% of all Obama voters not showing up to the polls. 5% is every single swing voter in the country switching from supporting you to opposing you en masse. 5% isn't an unclimbable mountain, but it's a pretty tall mountain.

That said, some of your analysis is reasonable (it's true that a third win for the incumbent party is historically unlikely, although we don't have a huge data set), but some of it is pretty facile. Posting statewide vote counts instead of margins is really not correct. If 10% of New Mexico voters voted Libertarian, then either it's not a swing state, or they're so devoted to the Libertarian Party as to be happy to throw it away for the GOP.
 
E

Euron

Member
robochimp said:
He is an idiot, and he doesn't look both ways before crossing the street in the middle of a block. I almost ran him over back in 2004.
Click to expand...
Like others said in previous threads, that might have been your "Go back in time and kill Hitler moment"
 
I

Iksenpets

Banned
PlayALLtheGames said:
Serious question: what is wrong with Scott Walker? Is he as stupid as he acts?

Scoffing at the idea of having a minimum wage for workers as a way to help workers. Lmao, ok. It's logical and demonstrably true, so what the hell is he talking about?
Click to expand...

Scott Walker married his wife on Reagan's birthday so that he would never forget their anniversary. Every year they celebrate by eating Reagan's favorite foods.

Scott Walker believes that the greatest foreign policy success of his lifetime was when Reagan beat the airline unions, because it showed the Soviets how tough he was. Scott Walker believes the Soviet Union fell because its leaders were afraid Reagan would beat them down like he did the unions.

Scott Walker, when asked what experience he has to prepare him to fight an enemy like ISIS, claimed that he had already faced an equal enemy — the public sector unions.

Scott Walker's brain was most likely removed in childhood and replaced with a jello mold. He's that dumb.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Iksenpets said:
Scott Walker married his wife on Reagan's birthday so that he would never forget their anniversary. Every year they celebrate by eating Reagan's favorite foods.
Click to expand...

no way.

edit: Holy fuck, no way....

Tonette and I host a dinner each year on Reagan’s birthday. We serve his favorite foods — macaroni and cheese casserole, and red, white, and blue Jelly Belly jelly beans — and have musicians perform patriotic songs and Irish music. It is a wonderful evening, and serves as a reminder for me each year to be hopeful and optimistic just like Ronald Reagan.

It happens to be a dual celebration because President Reagan’s birthday is also our wedding anniversary. Tonette jokes that I never forget our wedding anniversary because it is Reagan’s birthday.
Click to expand...

no.

no no no

I can't deal with this.
 
C

ChaosXVI

Member
That...that has to be made up. That is cartoonishly ridiculous. Like something that would be featured as a joke on The Daily Show or something.

Seriously, what the fuck is with this cult of Reagan?
 
T

Trouble

Banned
I'm supposed to take my first dose of colonoscopy prep at the exact time this debate starts tomorrow. That can't be coincidence.
 
I

Iksenpets

Banned
It pales in comparison to the weirdness of the Reagan thing, but Scott Walker also uses his Twitter account primarily to communicate about ham and haircuts. Literally dozens of tweets cataloging every time the man has cut his hair or gotten a ham sandwich for lunch. These are the things that fascinate his simple mind.
 
M

minor effort

Banned
Iksenpets said:
Scott Walker married his wife on Reagan's birthday so that he would never forget their anniversary. Every year they celebrate by eating Reagan's favorite foods.

Scott Walker believes that the greatest foreign policy success of his lifetime was when Reagan beat the airline unions, because it showed the Soviets how tough he was. Scott Walker believes the Soviet Union fell because it's leaders were afraid Reagan would beat them down like he did the unions.

Scott Walker, when asked what experience he has to prepare him to fight an enemy like ISIS, claimed that he had already faced an equal enemy — the public sector unions.

Scott Walker's brain was most likely removed in childhood and replaced with a jello mold. He's that dumb.
Click to expand...

Ohhhhhhhhh man.

Many say Trump is the biggest clown invited to be on stage at tomorow's debate. I disagree.
 
E

Euron

Member
Iksenpets said:
Scott Walker married his wife on Reagan's birthday so that he would never forget their anniversary. Every year they celebrate by eating Reagan's favorite foods.

Scott Walker believes that the greatest foreign policy success of his lifetime was when Reagan beat the airline unions, because it showed the Soviets how tough he was. Scott Walker believes the Soviet Union fell because it's leaders were afraid Reagan would beat them down like he did the unions.

Scott Walker, when asked what experience he has to prepare him to fight an enemy like ISIS, claimed that he had already faced an equal enemy — the public sector unions.

Scott Walker's brain was most likely removed in childhood and replaced with a jello mold. He's that dumb.
Click to expand...
I didn't find most of this surprising and a Google search confirmed it. But then I found this article detailing most of Walker's political career: http://www.salon.com/2015/05/28/scott_walker_is_a_giant_fraud_reagan_worship_bizarre_religious_beliefs_and_the_real_story_of_his_long_crusade_for_2016/

Now I'm absolutely terrified of him. You could see that even in his college days he was an absolute douche and his overall political career has come from the success of causing suffering to those he sees as below him. And don't even get me started with his multiple scandals and insane religion. If the GOP wants to bash Hillary for her scandals, they absolutely cannot have somebody like Walker run against her.

I'm not exactly sure how precice the accuracy of the article is but it matches up to things I've heard about him before as well as things he's said and how he presents himself. It's like he's trying to be some sort of villain.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Euron Crow's Eye said:
I didn't find most of this surprising and a Google search confirmed it. But then I found this article detailing most of Walker's political career: http://www.salon.com/2015/05/28/scott_walker_is_a_giant_fraud_reagan_worship_bizarre_religious_beliefs_and_the_real_story_of_his_long_crusade_for_2016/

Now I'm absolutely terrified of him. You could see that even in his college days he was an absolute douche and his overall political career has come from the success of causing suffering to those he sees as below him. And don't even get me started with his multiple scandals and insane religion. If the GOP wants to bash Hillary for her scandals, they absolutely cannot have somebody like Walker run against her.
Click to expand...

If Walker runs, unions across the midwest will make his defeat their central mission in life. Ohio will be gone.

Nominating him would be the 2016 Rust Belt equivalent of Romney saying he wouldn't bail out the auto industry. I bought my "Ohio for Obama" t-shirt when Romney doubled-down, knowing that it'd be the state to end the race. If Walker is the nominee, it looks like I'd be buying another "Ohio for {Democrat}" t-shirt.
 
I

Iksenpets

Banned
Euron Crow's Eye said:
I didn't find most of this surprising and a Google search confirmed it. But then I found this article detailing most of Walker's political career: http://www.salon.com/2015/05/28/scott_walker_is_a_giant_fraud_reagan_worship_bizarre_religious_beliefs_and_the_real_story_of_his_long_crusade_for_2016/

Now I'm absolutely terrified of him. You could see that even in his college days he was an absolute douche and his overall political career has come from the success of causing suffering to those he sees as below him. And don't even get me started with his multiple scandals and insane religion. If the GOP wants to bash Hillary for her scandals, they absolutely cannot have somebody like Walker run against her.

I'm not exactly sure how precice the accuracy of the article is but it matches up to things I've heard about him before as well as things he's said and how he presents himself. It's like he's trying to be some sort of villain.
Click to expand...

Walker has the unique ability to be a madman extremist, but packaged in such a milquetoast, Midwestern white dude package that everyone treats him like he's one of the more moderate. It's crazy. I focus on his dumbness, but that's really just the icing on the Scott Walker package.
 
E

Euron

Member
Iksenpets said:
Walker has the unique ability to be a madman extremist, but packaged in such a milquetoast, Midwestern white dude package that everyone treats him like he's one of the more moderate. It's crazy. I focus on his dumbness, but that's really just the icing on the Scott Walker package.
Click to expand...
It's entirely the Democrats' fault that he's in his current position, not just able to legitimately consider a presidential run but be run of the frontrunners.

When you attempt to remove somebody through a recall election, you don't nominate THE SAME PERSON HE BEAT TO GET ELECTED IN THE FIRST PLACE as his opponent and run no campaign ads that explained in any way, shape, or form why a recall election was occurring in the first place. Before the recall election, Walker was constantly getting overlooked for roles despite how much he kissed ass. After the recall, he became a hero to the Republicans, using the success as an excuse to go even further in his idiocy. Democrats could have ended his career right there but made him stronger than ever before.

So yeah if he's elected then the Democrats are entirely to blame.
 
I

Iksenpets

Banned
Euron Crow's Eye said:
It's entirely the Democrats' fault that he's in his current position, not just able to legitimately consider a presidential run but be run of the frontrunners.

When you attempt to remove somebody through a recall election, you don't nominate THE SAME PERSON HE BEAT TO GET ELECTED IN THE FIRST PLACE as his opponent and run no campaign ads that explained in any way, shape, or form why a recall election was occurring in the first place. Before the recall election, Walker was constantly getting overlooked for roles despite how much he kissed ass. After the recall, he became a hero to the Republicans, using the success as an excuse to go even further in his idiocy. Democrats could have ended his career right there but made him stronger than ever before.

So yeah if he's elected then the Democrats are entirely to blame.
Click to expand...

Calling the recall was a dumb move to begin with. A recall election is like all of the turnout problems that Dems face in a midterm election times two. They'd have been better off just waiting it out and trying to take him down in his reelection campaign. But yeah, now he's a Republican hero, and no amount of craziness and dim-wittedness is going to convince them otherwise.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Great op, B-dubs. My only complaint is singling out Trump as a clown. That would imply he's somehow beneath the rest of the nimrods involved in this freak show.
 
S

shadowsdarknes

Member
Its funny, my one Republican friend is coming off liberal as hell to all my teabagger friends.

He's one of those old school more moderate, Wall Street Republicans. But he just cannot believe how shitty his party is when it comes to women's health, climate change, gay marriage, gun laws, and their extremely perverse views on small government.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Oblivion said:
Great op, B-dubs. My only complaint is singling out Trump as a clown. That would imply he's somehow beneath the rest of the nimrods involved in this freak show.
Click to expand...

I can only work with what the universe gives me, I promise to try and do better next time.
 
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