This is a joke right? In 2012 Obama lost about 4 million and Romney gained about 1 million. You're saying it's because:
- Democrats lost millions of votes while GOP lost no votes at all from 2008
- GOP gained votes from "population growth" but Democrats gained no votes
You do realize you're contradicting yourself here, right?
Romney can't gain votes and lose votes at the same time, dude.
- All the lost votes from 2012 came from people who only voted in 2008 because Obama is black
No, I'm not. I said there were 3 reasons. Unpopular war (Iraq), economic collapse, and historic minority President.
Most of Obama's lost votes were from people who voted in 2008 who normally don't.
2008 had the HIGHEST turnout since 1968. Over 10 million more people voted than 4 years prior. Nearly 30 million more than 8 years prior. 2008 was a UNIQUE election in the post-Vietnam era.
Oh, btw, here were some shifts to the right from blue states.
Illinois: 9%
Wisconsin: 7%
Michigan: 7%
Delaware: 6%
Nevada: 6%
New Mexico: 5%
Pennsylvania: 5%
Oregon: 5%
You're comparing the numbers to a HISTORICALLY UNIQUE election. Which is why I said 2012 is likely the baseline and the 2008 election was the special random shift.
Look at 2004. Wisconsin was 49-49 and then in 2008 went 56-42. That's a fucking sea change. Michigan 51-48 in 2004, then 57.5-41.
Shifts like that don't occur in 4 years without something unique happening. Which a lot of unique shit happened. Most unpopular war since Vietnam + Great Recession + First Black President.
It is stupid to compare 2012 to 2008 because 2008 was unique. Nothing shifted back. Romney got the same votes as McCain when you account for population growth.
Or put it this way. Romney didn't pick up any additional support than McCain already had. Nobody actually moved to the GOP party.
Here's what happened in 2012. The same people that voted McCain voted Romney. Most of the people that voted Obama voted Obama. The ones that didn't, stayed home.
There was no discernible shift right or left.
edit: Maybe this will help you understand. Nearly 8 million more people voted in 2012 compared to 2004. Romney got over 1 million less votes in 2012 compared to Bush in 2004 despite this.