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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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B-Dubs

No Scrubs
This has all the fingerprints of a right wing attack and barely any of the ISIS ones.

ie Oklahoma City bombing, attacking soft targets in a belief they'll raise ire towards a percieved bigger target

ISIS prefers big glitzy targets

This is my read as well. ISIS or any international group would have hit someplace a lot fancier, in a much bigger city. If it was ISIS they'd have hit the Staples Center in LA or something.

I still can't fucking believe that someone was a big enough asshole to attack disabled kids. Fucking fuck.
 
It would be amazing if the Democrats win the House, along with the presidency and Senate. If the ACA was Obama's flagship legislation, I wonder what Clinton's would be? Would the Democrats have an appetite for expanding the ACA to include a public option? Increasing the minimum wage to $12 would also be huge, since almost every low income person in this country, regardless of race, would benefit from it. And it would be political suicide for a Republican to rebuke it like with the ACA. Hell, the Dem's could actually gain in 2018 if they run on defending the wage increase.
Dream list for hypothetical President Clinton:

- Immigration reform (this would probably get done in the first 100 days)
- Free universal pre-K and two-year college (as well as other improvements/more money for the current education system)
- $12 minimum wage (rolled into a broader jobs/infrastructure package that would undo some of the sequestration cuts, paid for by a millionaires' surtax or something)
- New environmental regulations to strengthen the Clean Power Plan
- Expanding the safety net - imagine a bill that would (a) work around states that have rejected the Medicaid expansion, (b) extended Medicare to ages 55-64, (c) introduced a strong public option to the marketplace, and (d) lifted the payroll tax cap on Social Security while expanding benefits
- Something like EFCA to restore power to the unions
- Restoration of the Voting Rights Act that includes public disclosure regulations
- ECLA (easy, politically popular olive branch)
- Finally: gun control. Goddamn.

Crab said:
It wouldn't be a Goldwater level disaster. Stop thinking there are more Hispanics than there are. If you assume that Trump could get only 9% of the Hispanic vote as per those polls and that Hispanic turn-out increases by 4% (which is hugely optimistic as is), and otherwise 2012 and 2016 are identical, the only state that changes hands as a result is Arizona.
I'm operating under the assumption that Hispanic turnout will increase from 10% to 13% (which most prognosticators are going with) and that a GOP candidate will likely get at least 20% with Hispanics.

Sure, we'd be lucky if even one state flipped, but the bigger picture is that Florida, Colorado, Nevada etc. become safe D and the GOP has no path to victory anywhere. Like I said a Goldwater-style blowout is impossible in today's political environment but if the GOP literally has no chance, it might as well be. It's conceivable that certain pols like Romney or Dukakis could have won under certain circumstances, if those numbers hold for Trump you might as well call it at the conventions.
 
This is my read as well. ISIS or any international group would have hit someplace a lot fancier, in a much bigger city. If it was ISIS they'd have hit the Staples Center in LA or something.

I still can't fucking believe that someone was a big enough asshole to attack disabled kids. Fucking fuck.
Of course, goes without saying (the second paragraph). Its a new low in America's gun crime history. Heartfelt condelences to victims families.

Still, I think the terrorists were looking to shoot fish in a barrel. I just dont see the goal or purpose of a right wing motive.
 

FyreWulff

Member
Of course, goes without saying (the second paragraph). Its a new low in America's gun crime history. Heartfelt condelences to victims families.

Still, I think the terrorists were looking to shoot fish in a barrel. I just dont see the goal or purpose of a right wing motive.

Skinheads and their ilk believe all non-able bodies people should be euthanized, so it's not exactly a far reach for them.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Of course, goes without saying (the second paragraph). Its a new low in America's gun crime history. Heartfelt condelences to victims families.

Still, I think the terrorists were looking to shoot fish in a barrel. I just dont see the goal or purpose of a right wing motive.

If it was domestic it would be classic neo-nazi. It's too early to tell either way though, my gut says domestic but there's no way I'd go anywhere near a mic and try to make a guess.
 
Body Armor and Camo pants on suspects however, points to domestic terrorism. In my reading ISIS attackers dont much care for body armor and see these as Martyrdom missions. Also lack of a suicide blast tells me they were not looking for martyrdom.

WNG VW News update: Police are searching for as many as three suspects described as white males dressed in camoflage
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
DI'm operating under the assumption that Hispanic turnout will increase from 10% to 13% (which most prognosticators are going with) and that a GOP candidate will likely get at least 20% with Hispanics.

Sure, we'd be lucky if even one state flipped, but the bigger picture is that Florida, Colorado, Nevada etc. become safe D and the GOP has no path to victory anywhere. Like I said a Goldwater-style blowout is impossible in today's political environment but if the GOP literally has no chance, it might as well be. It's conceivable that certain pols like Romney or Dukakis could have won under certain circumstances, if those numbers hold for Trump you might as well call it at the conventions.

Well, sure, but those numbers aren't significantly different for e.g. Rubio than Trump - 18 approval instead of 9, big whoop.
 
Body Armor and Camo pants on suspects however, points to domestic terrorism. In my reading ISIS attackers dont much care for body armor and see these as Martyrdom missions. Also lack of a suicide blast tells me they were not looking for martyrdom.

WNG VW News update: Police are searching for as many as three suspects described as white males dressed in camoflage

If the shooters are really fleeing, that doesn't sound like ISIS at all.
 
Assuming this is domestic, which seems highly likely, that this would be a new low where the disabled and its helpers were attacked and would lead to a sea change but we just went through this with elementary school children and nothing come of it so I'm expecting this to go..

"Guns again at issue..."

"THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO TALK ABOUT GUNS, DON'T POLITICIZE IT."

"THESE GUYS WERE MENTALLY ILL"

::nothing gets done::

move on.

Sigh.
 
Assuming this is domestic, which seems highly likely, that this would be a new low where the disabled and its helpers were attacked and would lead to a sea change but we just went through this with elementary school children and nothing come of it so I'm expecting this to go..

"Guns again at issue..."

"THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO TALK ABOUT GUNS, DON'T POLITICIZE IT."

"THESE GUYS WERE MENTALLY ILL"

::nothing gets done::

move on.

Sigh.

‪#‎stuffhappens‬

‪#‎nothingwecando‬

‪#‎nowaytopreventthis‬

#‎itsamentalhealthissuenotagunissue‬
 
Assuming this is domestic, which seems highly likely, that this would be a new low where the disabled and its helpers were attacked and would lead to a sea change but we just went through this with elementary school children and nothing come of it so I'm expecting this to go..

"Guns again at issue..."

"THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO TALK ABOUT GUNS, DON'T POLITICIZE IT."

"THESE GUYS WERE MENTALLY ILL"

::nothing gets done::

move on.

Sigh.

"THESE PEOPLE THAT SLAUGHTERED THE MENTALLY ILL WERE MENTALLY ILL NOW WATCH ME CUT SPENDING FOR MENTAL ILLNESS RESEARCH AND NOT EXPAND MEDICAID."
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Assuming this is domestic, which seems highly likely, that this would be a new low where the disabled and its helpers were attacked and would lead to a sea change but we just went through this with elementary school children and nothing come of it so I'm expecting this to go..

"Guns again at issue..."

"THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO TALK ABOUT GUNS, DON'T POLITICIZE IT."

"THESE GUYS WERE MENTALLY ILL"

::nothing gets done::

move on.

Sigh.

I wish I believed in all of us enough to disagree with this, I really do.

Just, fuck everything.
 

HyperionX

Member
Assuming this is domestic, which seems highly likely, that this would be a new low where the disabled and its helpers were attacked and would lead to a sea change but we just went through this with elementary school children and nothing come of it so I'm expecting this to go..

"Guns again at issue..."

"THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO TALK ABOUT GUNS, DON'T POLITICIZE IT."

"THESE GUYS WERE MENTALLY ILL"

::nothing gets done::

move on.

Sigh.

The onion saves the day again and again..
 
Well, sure, but those numbers aren't significantly different for e.g. Rubio than Trump - 18 approval instead of 9, big whoop.
Rubio would probably do about as well as Romney did. Unlike Trump he doesn't actively and explicitly antagonize Hispanics.

A boost in Hispanic turnout could also flip some districts in Texas and Florida. I imagine some of the heavily gerrymandered districts would crack if a majority of their voters actually showed up.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Rubio would probably do about as well as Romney did. Unlike Trump he doesn't actively and explicitly antagonize Hispanics.

I agree re: Rubio doing about as well as Romney. I just think Trump would do slightly better than Romney.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Assuming this is domestic, which seems highly likely

Do we even have enough information at this point to say that? The information I've seen (three shooters who escaped from the scene of the crime) doesn't really match your typical mass shooting.
 
product_thumbnail.php

Are you a Maoist or are you equating Maoist/Third Worldism with socialism/communism here?
 
Do we even have enough information at this point to say that? The information I've seen (three shooters who escaped from the scene of the crime) doesn't really match your typical mass shooting.

I'm invoking Occam's Razor here. I just don't see how a place like this in San Bernandino would be an international terrorist target.

Even if these guys are Muslim or Arabs or Jewish or anything else, it can still be domestic terrorism. The Boston Marathon Bombers were domestic as well.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I believe he's saying Trump would do better overall, but worse amongst Hispanics, and women, and Blacks, and anyone with relatives who aren't White Men. He would basically have to get 100% of the White Male vote to be competitive.

Actually, I don't think Trump will do worse with women than Romney did. I think he'll do about the same or possibly slightly better. Otherwise, yes.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
I'm invoking Occam's Razor here. I just don't see how a place like this in San Bernandino would be an international terrorist target.

Even if these guys are Muslim or Arabs or Jewish or anything else, it can still be domestic terrorism. The Boston Marathon Bombers were domestic as well.

Fair enough.

I can't stand to sift through the breaking news threads. So much useless information and misinformation.
 
Holy shit, that reddit live thread is total disaster. Middle eastern man spotted with a beard. Hispanic man spotted in an SUV.

This is what happens when fucking fedora clowns take a break from jerking off to mlp porn and decide to report on real news. I vote we ban any reddit related crap here, just like 4chan.
 
I agree re: Rubio doing about as well as Romney. I just think Trump would do slightly better than Romney.
Romney got around 27%.

Trump getting 9% would be a disaster. If nothing else the popular vote tally would look a lot worse.

There is no way in hell Trump would outperform Romney with Hispanics. I think if he won the presidency it would be on the back of economic meltdown pushing his numbers among white voters into the high 60s combined with depressed minority turnout.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Holy shit, that reddit live thread is total disaster. Middle eastern man spotted with a beard. Hispanic man spotted in an SUV.

This is what happens when fucking fedora clowns take a break from jerking off to mlp porn and decide to report on real news. I vote we ban any reddit related crap here, just like 4chan.

Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaamn, son.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Romney got around 27%.

Trump getting 9% would be a disaster. If nothing else the popular vote tally would look a lot worse.

There is no way in hell Trump would outperform Romney with Hispanics. I think if he won the presidency it would be on the back of economic meltdown pushing his numbers among white voters into the high 60s combined with depressed minority turnout.

No, sorry, I was saying I reckon Trump will do better than Romney in the presidential overall, not among Hispanics. I agree Trump will do worse among specifically Hispanics than Romney. I just don't think Hispanics make enough difference yet for that to be critical. Give it another generation and then we'll start talking.
 
Holy shit, that reddit live thread is total disaster. Middle eastern man spotted with a beard. Hispanic man spotted in an SUV.

This is what happens when fucking fedora clowns take a break from jerking off to mlp porn and decide to report on real news. I vote we ban any reddit related crap here, just like 4chan.

No lies here. I figured people would've learned their lesson after Boston, but guess not. Everyone wants to be the Hardy Boys.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Assuming this is domestic, which seems highly likely, that this would be a new low where the disabled and its helpers were attacked and would lead to a sea change but we just went through this with elementary school children and nothing come of it so I'm expecting this to go..

"Guns again at issue..."

"THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO TALK ABOUT GUNS, DON'T POLITICIZE IT."

"THESE GUYS WERE MENTALLY ILL"

::nothing gets done::

move on.

Sigh.

This, ladies and gentlemen, is why I hope and pray I can move my family to Canada/Western Europe sooner than later. I have four young sons, and I don't want them growing up in this gun culture. It's going to get much worse before it gets better.
 

Cerium

Member
Holy shit, that reddit live thread is total disaster. Middle eastern man spotted with a beard. Hispanic man spotted in an SUV.

This is what happens when fucking fedora clowns take a break from jerking off to mlp porn and decide to report on real news. I vote we ban any reddit related crap here, just like 4chan.

Can someone explain the fedora thing to me? I've seen them negatively associated with hipsters, atheists, MLP fans, you name it. Why are fedoras bad, and why have I never actually seen anyone wear them in real life if all these bad people wear them?
 
Can someone explain the fedora thing to me? I've seen them negatively associated with hipsters, atheists, MLP fans, you name it. Why are fedoras bad, and why have I never actually seen anyone wear them in real life if all these bad people wear them?
It's mostly just a lazy way to insult whatever group of your choosing. People on Reddit spreading misinformation don't have anything to do with fedoras.
 
Time for a multi-quote mega post :).

that's a whole lot of words you said to dodge a point about Da Bern falling for the global warming hoax

I will address this at a later time, I promise ;).

The irony is he tries to dodge the issue by switching topics to everything being about needing a President to stand up to Israel.

Yet Bernie Sanders is Jewish and has a very long history of backing pro-Israel policies.

If you compare Bernie's recent response, to audience questions on Israel / Palestine, to one back in 1988, where he was pressed at a Vermont Town Hall press conference, by a reporter, he's actually been quite consistent on Israel's absolute right to exist, establishing a viable Palestinian state, and unequivocally condemning atrocities committed by both sides. He also recently boycotted Netanyahu's speech in The House, characterising it as a stunt to aid Netanyahu's presidential bid.

The crucial question is; would he actually go beyond Obama's tough talk on Israel? Although he unquestionably stands by and would defend the Israeli state, his commitment to the American people is, if anything, even stronger, and seeing us continuing to spend billions of tax payers dollars, sustaining the decades long conflict, when we have so much to accomplish at home, could well provide the necessary impetus for him to act.

After his claim the other day that I am not sure how many saw where he claimed people in retrospect would have elected McCain knowing know Obama supports TPP and that McCain would have been against it despite the fact McCain is an ardent supporter of TPP

Perhaps, a tad one sided account of my admitted misstep? I thought my final post on the subject was particularly strong, spinning the expose, rather effectively, to bolster my case :).

The point I was obviously making, was Obama would have had nothing like the popular support in 08, if we had known he had just the same regard for Wall Street and Corporations as Hillary, and, as a result, he may not have even won the nomination, or had a significantly harder contest for the White House.

Oh, I remember reading that. That kind of retirement is common among programmers. Mr Money Moustache popularized it a few years ago.
Doesn't work out too well for you if you get get sick, hurt, etc. Refusing to get health care due to budgeting your life for the rest of your days by having little to no money outside of the bare bare essentials is a recipe for disaster.

Shit ALWAYS happens.

I very nearly did slip on the proverbial banana peel; I was up a ladder, touching up the paint on my house, and I only stepped of the ladder, down a neighbors coal shute! I only just made it to my sofa, and very nearly passed out, getting my shoes off! What a trooper though (perhaps a mistake); after recovering my composure, I managed to hobble around, to finish the remaining painting. I probably came very close to breaking my ankle, and experienced significant pain and discomfort for weeks after (eventually bought an ankle support), from the bad sprain...

I of course looked at a reputable Obamacare plan, but it was like $380 / month, with a 10% deductible, so there's no way I can currently afford it, as it would deplete my savings at too quick a rate (quite reasonably, in Virginia, I don't qualify for subsidy as I haven't contributed to the U.S. tax system (only had career in U.K.)). If and when interest rates pick up, big time, I'll probably have another look.

Does anyone really need "pro tips" in order to successfully steam broccoli?

Have you noticed that your steamer water is green? That likely represents a good deal of the nutrients from the broccoli, that one typically just pours down the sink. By lightly steaming broccoli, it retains a good deal more of the nutrients, and possibly flavor, so, a pro tip, indeed?

Bonus Tip. To make a reasonable broccoli soup, inspired by Gordon Ramsay's recipe (minus goats cheese, as I found it completely overpowered soup), with a steamer and blender; using just 2/3 of a cup of fresh water, steam broccoli (enough to cover base of steamer) on low heat, until really soft (easily pricked with a fork). Then transfer broccoli to blender, and add the nutrient rich steamer water up to a max of half broccoli volume. Thoroughly blend (initially use pulse to break up broccoli), which may well require pushing contents on sides back to bottom, and re-blend, also, perhaps adding more water. Lastly, pour into microwave safe bowl (use serving spoon to coax out remnants), season to taste (I add a little freshly ground pepper and salt and thoroughly mix in), and nuke for around 30s.

I decided to look at Daniel's post history, he is uh...interesting. He retired at 37 to live off less than 5k a year by never eating out ever, buying no clothes, etc, having NO HEALTH INSURANCE (a liberal without healthcare not signing up for Obamacare lolz).

When questioned about no health insurance he claims he doesn't need it because he walks and eats lots of broccoli?
I mean, aside from the no health insurance (and if something bad happens he can always dip into capital), this is pretty goddamn badass.

Well, although I was most certainly downsizing, I initially thought I was going to be living my version of the American Dream, with perhaps $10k in interest income (before tax). Then the financial meltdown hit, with my income dropping to around $2k... Luckily (for me), with the meltdown, came the crash in house prices, so I was able to afford my modest home, and have enough left over to hunker down, and weather the crisis (on $5k / year), until the economy finally rebounded. I'm obviously hoping the Fed starts the ball rolling this month, with their first expected interest rate hike :).
 
No, sorry, I was saying I reckon Trump will do better than Romney in the presidential overall, not among Hispanics. I agree Trump will do worse among specifically Hispanics than Romney. I just don't think Hispanics make enough difference yet for that to be critical. Give it another generation and then we'll start talking.
I mean it's not like a seismic overnight shift or anything but keep in mind essentially 3% of the electorate that was white is being replaced by Hispanic voters (whites projected to drop from 72 to 69, Hispanics going from 10 to 13). That's worth about a percent and a half extra for Hillary if she's up against Trump, unless he improved significantly with white voters. Which is certainly a possibility but I think any gains would be marginal at best - Romney was already pushing the limit with 59% in 2012.

Put it this way, if the way the demographics voted stayed the same as in 2012 with the projected 2016 electorate, the Democrat's winning margin would be closer to 6 points than 4.

Can someone explain the fedora thing to me? I've seen them negatively associated with hipsters, atheists, MLP fans, you name it. Why are fedoras bad, and why have I never actually seen anyone wear them in real life if all these bad people wear them?
Fedoras just seem to be popular among nerds. I can't tell you why or how it started but I've totally seen it in college.
 
CNN double standards at work. During Paris, the entire front page was turned into a giant, fullscreen jpeg of crime scene showing cops, ambulances, swat teams, with huge, capitalized red fonts about deaths, terror. All the other day's stories were scrubbed. Within minutes. Today? Just another breaking news frontpage. Other stories still there. You can even click on the story about Mark Zuckerberg's baby!
 
Didn't he say this would dominate headlines? Because the Democrats are leading. The media wouldn't report on that, the Democrats are permanently in disarray.

Rubio solidly in second with 17% is very troubling. I liked him a lot better when he was in single digits.

We may be seeing a situation where Rubio becomes this cycle's Romney (always in 2nd or leading early, then eventually leading for good), but a little later than Romney became that cycle's Romney.
 
CNN double standards at work. During Paris, the entire front page was turned into a giant, fullscreen jpeg of crime scene showing cops, ambulances, swat teams, with huge, capitalized red fonts about deaths, terror. All the other day's stories were scrubbed. Within minutes. Today? Just another breaking news frontpage. Other stories still there. You can even click on the story about Mark Zuckerberg's baby!

To be fair, the Paris attacks were on a much larger scale than what happened today in San Bernardino, with multiple independent attacks and ten times the body count. Not that CNN doesn't do its part in pushing anti-Muslim hysteria in the wake of terrorist attacks (that shit sells with ignorant people), but the Paris attack was a "once in a decade" event, as opposed to the shooting in San Bernardino which has become depressingly common. How does this compare to their coverage of Newtown or Aurora?
 
Rubio solidly in second with 17% is very troubling. I liked him a lot better when he was in single digits.

We may be seeing a situation where Rubio becomes this cycle's Romney (always in 2nd or leading early, then eventually leading for good), but a little later than Romney became that cycle's Romney.
In my opinion, Rubio/Cruz voters are the people waking up from Carson ecstasy. There is a direct, inverse correlation between his numbers and their rise. But the Carson people never wanted Trump. Which means Trump people will live and die with Trump.
 
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