• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

Status
Not open for further replies.

Diablos

Member
Looks like Ryan wants to do something about mental health, taking up Rep. Murphy's bill. I wonder what poison pills he will put into it.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
too optimistic . I guess if you had a lot of moderates in those plains and southern states unwilling to support trump voting for Hillary or staying home they could happen.

Why did you quote a post I didn't post in this thread in this thread?

Looks like Ryan wants to do something about mental health, taking up Rep. Murphy's bill. I wonder what poison pills he will put into it.

You mean Senator Murphy's bill, right? There's a lot of Murphys and I know that Senator Murphy has been championing his bill for some time.
 
Establishments still only at 34% of the vote. Christie supporters were probably Rubio supporters two weeks ago, Kasich supporters six weeks ago after his little boomlet and Jeb! supporters three months ago.

There is some Rubio hopium buried in this poll:

-- NH gop poll when you drop race to 4 candidates: Trump at 32, Rubio 23, Cruz 20, Bush 18.

-- When you drop it to just 3 candidates it is: Trump 35, Rubio 33, Cruz 22

So Rubio gets almost all of the benefit if Jeb! weakens further.
 
Nothing concrete yet but CNN reporting the SB shooter was radicalized. The right was already frothing.

I'm genuinely scared for our countries Muslims and the rhetoric that Trump and co are about to spew ...

If it's true and Farook was radicalized and this was a terror attack, I think it seals trump's win.
 

HylianTom

Banned
There is some Rubio hopium buried in this poll:

-- NH gop poll when you drop race to 4 candidates: Trump at 32, Rubio 23, Cruz 20, Bush 18.

-- When you drop it to just 3 candidates it is: Trump 35, Rubio 33, Cruz 22

So Rubio gets almost all of the benefit if Jeb! weakens further.
That's gotta eat at the party's leaders.. 'cause do we really think enough will drop out by then? 😅

"Jeb.. get out!"
"Nope. I've built this org and my PACS are sitting on a mountain of cash."

"Kasich: scram!"
"Sure. Enjoy this delicious slice of 4%."

"Hey Christie, drop-out!"
"Fuck you, I'm surging!"
 

Sianos

Member
Does this renewed interest in mental healthcare mean that Republicans will stop trying to repeal Obamacare now? Does this mean they support universal healthcare so that therapy will stop being a for-profit industry where patients are shuttled through a mechanical behavioral therapy with no therapeutic alliance between therapist and client and with no cognitive or humanistic care for a short time frame? I've had to struggle to get the people I care about the help I need, and oftentimes have to resort to administering my own unprofessional pseudo-care (which is highly, highly advised against): will Republicans do something about that? Perhaps will they take a more holistic approach and address mental health care from a humanistic approach, focusing on ensuring people's basic needs for the potential of self-actualization are met and attempting to rehabilitate those who are "mentally ill"? And speaking of rehabilitation, will they end the for-profit prison system and begin promoting rehabilitation over punishment?

I find it hard not be cynical these days when Republicans are involved in mental healthcare.
 

Makai

Member
SourShoes, are you going Rubio now that he's the clear favorite in the non-billionaire caucus and he won your isidewith results?
 
Ben Carson just called Hamas "Hummus" three separate times in one interview and Trump just said "I'm a great negotiator, just like you people" to a group of Jewish Republicans so today is starting well.
 

Bowdz

Member
There is some Rubio hopium buried in this poll:

-- NH gop poll when you drop race to 4 candidates: Trump at 32, Rubio 23, Cruz 20, Bush 18.

-- When you drop it to just 3 candidates it is: Trump 35, Rubio 33, Cruz 22

So Rubio gets almost all of the benefit if Jeb! weakens further.

It seems highly unlikely that any of the establishment candidates (Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Fiorina, Christie, Paul) will drop out before NH. Even if Rubio starts to consolidate the moderate vote, there will be others pulling a few points away from him here and there.
 
I think you guys might have inexplicably left something out from that recent Quinnipiac University Poll:

Quinnipiac: Bernie vs GOP said:
Topping Trump 49 - 41 percent;
Getting 44 percent to Rubio's 43 percent;
Beating Cruz 49 - 39 percent;
Leading Carson 47 - 41 percent.

Hillary obviously crushes him, right? Oh, wait, Bernie beats her again, in the GOP matchups:

Quinnipiac: Hillary vs GOP said:
47 - 41 percent over Trump, compared to 46 - 43 percent November 4;
Clinton at 45 percent to Rubio's 44 percent, compared to a 46 - 41 percent Rubio lead last month;
Clinton tops Cruz 47 - 42 percent, compared to Cruz at 46 percent to Clinton's 43 percent last month;
Clinton at 46 percent to Carson's 43 percent compared to Carson's 50 - 40 percent lead last month.

And, will you look at that; on favorabilty amongst registered voters, Hillary gets routed (pay especial notice to the "haven't heard enough" figures of 24 / 3 :) ):

Quinnipiac: favorable / unfavorable / haven't heard enough said:
Bernie: 44 / 31 / 24
Hillary: 44 / 51 / 3
Donald: 35 / 57 / 5
Marco: 38 / 27 / 34

As I'm sure you would take delight in pointing out, according to the hi-tech poll ("Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones"), Hillary has expanded her commanding lead over Bernie, nationally, among Democrats / Democrat leaning voters, at 60 vs 30, although, for those that consider themselves "Very liberal", she still just beats him with 48 vs 47, which is a red flag, right there (e.g. Bernie is for relaxing marijuana laws, where as Hillary is still waiting to see whether she has to give away another inducement, and I have little doubt, that she had her fingers crossed when she gave away the TPP one...).
 

daedalius

Member
Nothing concrete yet but CNN reporting the SB shooter was radicalized. The right was already frothing.

I'm genuinely scared for our countries Muslims and the rhetoric that Trump and co are about to spew ...

If it's true and Farook was radicalized and this was a terror attack, I think it seals trump's win.

His win of the Republican primary? Because I'm pretty sure that is all it would seal.

Really, this exact same sentiment was had during the Paris tragedy.
 

Diablos

Member
It will be interesting to see if poll numbers improve for the GOP because, you know, the recent mass shooting here in the US was carried out by someone brown instead of white. Nevermind that they're all acts of terror no matter what, but this is the US after all.
 
Real talk: if the Dems have any sort of brains at all, they'll seize on the terror connections and paint anti-gun control advocates as weak on defense.
 
It will be interesting to see if poll numbers improve for the GOP because, you know, the recent mass shooting here in the US was carried out by someone brown instead of white. Nevermind that they're all acts of terror no matter what, but this is the US after all.

Maybe if they were Syrian refugees or foreign terrorists.
 
Islamic terrorism and security are now the dominant issues of this election. This stuff is ending Carson's campaign. And Sanders' to be honest.
 
His win of the Republican primary? Because I'm pretty sure that is all it would seal.

Really, this exact same sentiment was had during the Paris tragedy.

Yes, I'm speaking of the primary. But his rhetoric might ring a little less hollow for independents and such after this event making the national a little more scary.
 

Diablos

Member
Islamic terrorism and security are now the dominant issues of this election. This stuff is ending Carson's campaign. And Sanders' to be honest.
If it's not terrorism it's the economy. If the economy is finally starting to improve by a reasonable amount then it has to be terrorism. This fucking blows, it's like a neverending loop.
 

daedalius

Member
Yes, I'm speaking of the primary. But his rhetoric might ring a little less hollow for independents and such after this event making the national a little more scary.

Anyone who is paying any sort of attention in the US is probably already quite aware of the amount of gun violence and mass shootings happening. Why is one more (which is sad to say) going to make a difference in listening to Trump more?

"Because this time it was Muslins!"
 
Anyone who is paying any sort of attention in the US is probably already quite aware of the amount of gun violence and mass shootings happening. Why is one more (which is sad to say) going to make a difference in listening to Trump more?

"Because this time it was Muslins!"

Basically.
 
PPP NH

Trump 27
Cruz 13
Rubio 11
Christie 10
Carson 9
Kasich 8
Fiorina 6
Bush 5
Paul 4:

I'm digging this. Christie NO shares on PredictIt's New Hampshire GOP market are at 85 cents right now, down from mid-90s a week or so ago. I put a couple hundred into those. Seems like a pretty certain 15 cent return. Basically a high-yield risk-free asset. I'm using markets like that to hedge my all-in long position on Hillary for POTUS.
 

daedalius

Member
Yes. He's campaigned on wanting to ID them etc etc before this happened. A report on the first page of the OT polls his base and they're all right there with him.

I think his supporters feel that way, but I doubt rest of America does, or at least I certainly hope they don't.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Real talk: if the Dems have any sort of brains at all, they'll seize on the terror connections and paint anti-gun control advocates as weak on defense.

100% this. And if they really want to triangulate things and give conservatives cover, they can say 'welp we don't want to do this but we need to do X, Y, Z to stop the terrorists'

obvious that's too easy and will never happen though.
 

Cerium

Member
Anyone who is paying any sort of attention in the US is probably already quite aware of the amount of gun violence and mass shootings happening. Why is one more (which is sad to say) going to make a difference in listening to Trump more?

"Because this time it was Muslins!"

"If only we had the database, this would never have happened!"
 
The christie surge is real. Get hype

DyY7eaf.jpg
 

User1608

Banned
I'm not sure that there are any left at this point. I think he's officially insulted everyone.

Hockey moms.
Hah. That's true. You betcha he won't go after hockey moms.
If it's not terrorism it's the economy. If the economy is finally starting to improve by a reasonable amount then it has to be terrorism. This fucking blows, it's like a neverending loop.
I'm certainly a bit concerned too, now. All we can really do is hope Democrats can prepare really, really well for next year in the event of a worst case scenario.

Also, can't believe Christie is surging as much as he has recently.
 

Wilsongt

Member
The christie surge is real. Get hype

DyY7eaf.jpg

That's a meaty tuck.

In other news:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/v...to-control-the-presidency?cmpid=yhoo.headline

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan spelled out GOP policy priorities in a speech Thursday in Washington. The Wisconsin Republican called for a simplified tax code and said the most urgent thing is “to actually repeal and replace Obamacare.” “We are not here to smooth things over, we are here to shake things up,” he said.

Boy Wonder video at the link.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I always feel like Ryan's just biding his time for a presidential run.
 
I always feel like Ryan's just biding his time for a presidential run.

I think that dream ended when he took the speaker position. If his speakership ends up being Boehner 2.0 like Republicans are thinking, he won't get anywhere near the nomination.
 
They're still talking repeal nearly six years after the law was passed. Is there any modern equivalent to this insanity?

In 1988 Reagan and Congress passed the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act. It was wildly unpopular and was repealed a year later. One year.

These people are seriously talking about repealing something that's been in effect for almost six years and is a pretty integral part of the entire healthcare system at this point. It makes no goddamn sense.

Sure you can modify it. Repeal the medical device tax if you must. Money is fungible. I'd increase the subsidies to cover more of the middle and upper-middle class, since they're the ones that have really lost out with the law. Mandate more pricing transparency. Maybe even adjust the essential benefits.

But anyone who thinks you can just repeal the law entirely at this point without plunging the entire healthcare system into complete chaos is absolutely insane.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom