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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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I think if Clinton tries really hard and really sounds like she's speaking from the heart, the speech will work.

The problem is it seems like whenever Clinton says anything people say it's too rehearsed, calculated, etc

Eh...from my perspective Clinton isn't really a strong orator. This *might* work, but she's not effective at getting her message across in big campaign speeches like Obama is, or Bill was.

One on one interviews and debates where a more conversational approach is used work a LOT better for her- If I were in the campaign my media strategy would lean heavier on those, rather than the big rally approach.
 

Boke1879

Member
I see some of yall already downplaying this.

Depending on how it's delivered this could be good. All she has to do is really talk about her work and what she's done as a young person and what she plans to do while in office to help young people.

It may not help overall, but if she speaks about her accomplishments and the legit good work she's done. That's a positive message going forward.

Can't get mad at her for not doing shit in regards to this demo and then get upset when she puts a foot forward. Lets what until after the speech before passing judgement.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Eh...from my perspective Clinton isn't really a strong orator. This *might* work, but she's not effective at getting her message across in big campaign speeches like Obama is, or Bill was.

One on one interviews and debates where a more conversational approach is used work a LOT better for her- If I were in the campaign my media strategy would lean heavier on those, rather than the big rally approach.

They should be doing weekly interviews on her proposals and platform. Not only would it play to her strength, but it attacks Trump without even mentioning him.
 

Debirudog

Member
She should just do a townhall with a bunch of pro-Hillary kids talking to her, and then have a crowd of not so pro-Hillary ask some questions. She's not a good speaker like Obama.
 

Boke1879

Member
Eh...from my perspective Clinton isn't really a strong orator. This *might* work, but she's not effective at getting her message across in big campaign speeches like Obama is, or Bill was.

One on one interviews and debates where a more conversational approach is used work a LOT better for her- If I were in the campaign my media strategy would lean heavier on those, rather than the big rally approach.

While I don't disagree with you. She should try and do more one on one's. She needs to be out there like this as well. She's not a great orator. we know this. i don't care she needs to be out there and try to sell herself.
 
They should be doing weekly interviews on her proposals and platform. Not only would it play to her strength, but it attacks Trump without even mentioning him.

Yep. and short form stuff like that works well on social media. Hits the younger segment of the population they're concerned about that is absolutely not going to be watching a campaign speech live on CNN or whatever.

While I don't disagree with you. She should try and do more one on one's. She needs to be out there like this as well. She's not a great orator. we know this. i don't care she needs to be out there and try to sell herself.

I think we're in the same boat. I don't recommend not doing big campaign speeches at ALL (that would be dumb) but altering their frequency, and adding more one on one interviews to the current approach.
 
It's just a line from a bigger speech. I think the broader context will be about student loans, minimum wage and free shits. But so many millenials were exposed to Hillary via Bernie, who introduced her as this Wall Street harpy that ran out of Goldman Sachs building with bags of cash as the economy was collapsing. She is trying to introduce herself as an idealist who fought for things. But it's impossible to undo the damage, but good on her for trying.
 

Diablos

Member
I see some of yall already downplaying this.

Depending on how it's delivered this could be good. All she has to do is really talk about her work and what she's done as a young person and what she plans to do while in office to help young people.

It may not help overall, but if she speaks about her accomplishments and the legit good work she's done. That's a positive message going forward.

Can't get mad at her for not doing shit in regards to this demo and then get upset when she puts a foot forward. Lets what until after the speech before passing judgement.

It's something, but it's not going to do much. Johnson and Stein out of the debates is 10x more important.
 

Boke1879

Member
It's just a line from a bigger speech. I think the broader context will be about student loans, minimum wage and free shits. But so many millenials were exposed to Hillary via Bernie, who introduced her as this Wall Street harpy that ran out of Goldman Sachs building with bags of cash as the economy was collapsing. She is trying to introduce herself as an idealist who fought for things. But it's impossible to undo the damage, but good on her for trying.

Trump went to a black church and while we all agree that did fuck all for him he can at least say he did it.

Clinton needs to be out there in front of people. I'm hoping she does delve into policy because while it's targeted as a millennial speech. What she says could apply to most people.

Not to mention it's always good to see her and hopefully she sends out a positive message.
 
This means nothing if turnout sucks. That's the issue. Can she get people willing to get out and vote for her.

Turnout is driven by ground based GOTV operations, not by television advertising. Clinton actually does have a significant amount of offices in Florida to do that, and is adding more by the minute. Thats one of the critical lessons from the Obama campaign that they're actually getting right here- they outstrip the Trump campaign in this area by a LOT.

The point there is that if you're using polls of likely voters to gauge support, it's going to completely ignore the massive increase in minority registration since by definition first time voters aren't likely. Clinton's actual support among that bloc will be undercounted.
 

Crayons

Banned
Eh...from my perspective Clinton isn't really a strong orator. This *might* work, but she's not effective at getting her message across in big campaign speeches like Obama is, or Bill was.

One on one interviews and debates where a more conversational approach is used work a LOT better for her- If I were in the campaign my media strategy would lean heavier on those, rather than the big rally approach.
She really isn't a strong orator. For Christ's sake Clinton, I feel like *I* could give better speeches than you.

I guess it has to do with her being a woman and her tone being policed her whole life
 

Boke1879

Member
It's something, but it's not going to do much. Johnson and Stein out of the debates is 10x more important.

Like I said. It may not help at all, but it's a foot forward and you can build on that and keep putting out positive messaging. Not just to young people to all voters.

Leading up to the debate she should hold a couple of rallies and outline some policy. Get some headlines and stories going into the weekend.

The debate should be good for her. She'll get hit with email/foundation questions, but on actual specifics and policy she should be great.
 

royalan

Member
Hillary can really help herself here by being the Hillary that she is...at fundraisers.

THAT Hillary ain't afraid to be real. And real is what young people like in their politicians.

This is speech where Hillary needs to not care if she offends Trump, his supporters, or the media.
 
Turnout is driven by ground based GOTV operations, not by television advertising. Clinton actually does have a significant amount of offices in Florida to do that, and is adding more by the minute. Thats one of the critical lessons from the Obama campaign that they're actually getting right here- they outstrip the Trump campaign in this area by a LOT.

The point there is that if you're using polls of likely voters to gauge turnout, it's going to completely ignore the massive increase in minority registration since by definition first time voters aren't likely. Clinton's actual support among that bloc will be undercounted.

Even before pollsters switched to LV, it was a tight race. It will remain a close race because 1) Trump needs Florida more than Clinton 2) Rubio will win over Hispanic voters and they will possibly vote for Trump and 3) not all LV screening is based on "have you voted before?"

Personally I think she needs to burn less cash on ads and more on Spanish events with surrogates (Kaine needs to move permanently to Florida until November, she's not lacking surrogates).
 

Bowdz

Member
The Clinton campaign's biggest misstep (that I can tell. Please correct me if I'm wrong) is Tim Kaine not spending enough time on Spanish speaking television. He should be giving interviews on Telemundo, Univision, Fusion, and local Spanish stations in Florida every single week at minimum.

I can't find any Spanish language interviews with Kaine post convention.
 

Crisco

Banned
Uh, Hillary's numbers exploded after the convention exploded precisely because people were reminded of her history as a champion for progressive ideals. Sounds like that's exactly what she's going for with that speech.
 

Boke1879

Member
That Hillary recently got her ass handed to her in the press and successfully energised Trump's base of support.

The press was going at her really for that 1/2 comment.

That said she can say the same thing but in an offhanded manner.

Show the contrast of the parties. "Dems aren't the party that demonizes or builds walls."
 

royalan

Member
That Hillary recently got her ass handed to her in the press and successfully energised Trump's base of support.

So?

The press are going to hound Hillary regardless.

And Trump's base is ALREADY energized. That's the reality we're dealing with here. Only one candidate has an enthusiasm problem, and despite all his other issues that candidate is not Trump.

The Clinton campaign's biggest misstep (that I can tell. Please correct me if I'm wrong) is Tim Kaine not spending enough time on Spanish speaking television. He should be giving interviews on Telemundo, Univision, Fusion, and local Spanish stations in Florida every single week at minimum.

I can't find any Spanish language interviews with Kaine post convention.

Agreed.
 
I think the idea behind not comparing exits to pre-election polls is that exit polls (usually) mirror actual results, whereas all polling comes down to an educated guess.

In short you're taking a statement of "This is what actually happened in 2012" and comparing it to "This is what I think might happen in 2016." It's not a 1:1 comparison.

Not to mention in general Latino/Hispanic polling is poor and pollsters like Latino Decisions or Univision that look at Latinos specifically tend to be more accurate (and, as an aside, better for Democrats). I believe a pollster calculated recently that based on Clinton's Latino support she would win Florida by a little under 4 points, but I can't recall.

Accurate. We know from exit polls that certain demographics are undersampled or oversampled in polls, so the only way to get a good comparison is to compare polls to polls. That piece would do well to look at Obama's polling with Hispanic voters in September, not his exit polling.
 

Debirudog

Member
Uh, Hillary's numbers exploded after the convention exploded precisely because people were reminded of her history as a champion for progressive ideals. Sounds like that's exactly what she's going for with that speech.

i think that's what needed really. The DNC convention really boosted her whereas Trump's didn't do jack shit because he's a terrible person with nothing good to show for it.
 
Even before pollsters switched to LV, it was a tight race

It was a lot LESS tight than it is- Clinton was polling in the +5 range before the switchover. Florida was never going to be a blowout for her- Obama won it by only 1 or 2% in 2012 IIRC- but losing it is unlikely this year.

It will remain a close race because 1) Trump needs Florida more than Clinton

Wont' agree with you here. Florida is considered a key state by both camps. Clinton CAN lose it and still win while Trump CAN'T- but that's true for literally every state Trump is contesting. he needs to run the table everywhere. The Trump campaign has no path forward if it loses OH, NH, FL, and possibly NV, period- and Trump has way less money to be competitive than Clinton does.

Clinton has a lot more offices here than Trump does and more funding at the campaign level to set them up- that graphic that I posted earlier had 30 offices in the clinton column set up and operating at the end of august to only ONE by the Trump campaign. Clinton is taking that state VERY seriously.

2) Rubio will win over Hispanic voters and they will possibly vote for Trump

This is where your logic falls apart. Hispanics aren't a monolithic bloc. The increase in Hispanic voters isn't from florida cubans who might be inclined to view Rubio favorably- the increase is being driven by immigrants coming in from Puerto Rico who vote overwhelmingly democratic by nearly 70/30 margins.

Rubio having cuban heritage will absolutely not help him here and it's not going to benefit Trump in any way- Rubio's favorability with hispanics of non cuban heritage has NEVER been good.

3) not all LV screening is based on "have you voted before?"

a very large chunk of it is. Language barriers also come into play, because again that immigration increase is coming from PR.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Rubio is winning enough Hispanics right now to win. Murphy can't have a 55-45 split and expect to beat Rubio. He has to mirror Hillary's.
 
I see some of yall already downplaying this.

Depending on how it's delivered this could be good. All she has to do is really talk about her work and what she's done as a young person and what she plans to do while in office to help young people.

It may not help overall, but if she speaks about her accomplishments and the legit good work she's done. That's a positive message going forward.

Can't get mad at her for not doing shit in regards to this demo and then get upset when she puts a foot forward. Lets what until after the speech before passing judgement.
It's not about being upset about her putting her foot forward it's about recognising millenials are shit.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I don't think there's anything wrong with her approach on its face. If she talks about issues that mattered to her when she was younger and how she dedicated herself to them and why they're still relevant, that's pretty much the best she herself can do if she does it regularly. If she is all, "And Pokemon go!" then yeah I could see it flopping.

You guys are ready to shit on stuff before you even see it! Every single "MAJOR SPEECH" Hillary has given has been really well received.

It's not about being upset about her putting her foot forward it's about recognising millenials are shit.

I blame the schools! They don't even know why trade deals are good for me.
 
Really though, religious voters have no election sway anymore because of religious polarization and non-religious voters are super in favor of legalization so I don't know why the parties refuse to touch legal weed.
 
You guys are negative Nancy up in here.

Be happy. Be positive. Life is beautiful. You're beautiful. Children are our future. Teach them well, and let them lead the way. Show them all the beauty they possess inside.

And if her speech doesn't work, she can cough on them and give them hysterical pregnancy and they'll stay home and not vote for Wacky Jill.
 

Wilsongt

Member
You guys are negative Nancy up in here.

Be happy. Be positive. Life is beautiful. You're beautiful. Children are our future. Teach them well, and let them lead the way. Show them all the beauty they possess inside.

And if her speech doesn't work, she can cough on them and give them hysterical pregnancy and they'll stay home and not vote for Wacky Jill.

What is all this nonsense?

The world sucks.
 
Really though, religious voters have no election sway anymore because of religious polarization and non-religious voters are super in favor of legalization so I don't know why the parties refuse to touch legal weed.

Evangelicals are 33% of the republican party overall, and a full half of republican primary voters. They "punch above their weight" and are overrepresented in the republican primary process.

Many of them view drug use as a moral issue and oppose it across the board, and will primary any candidate that doesn't agree. THAT'S why most republicans refuse to touch marijuana legalization, and since they won't, it becomes problematic for Democratic opponents.
 
You guys are negative. Nancy up in here.

Be happy. Be positive. Life is beautiful. You're beautiful. Children are our future. Teach them well, and let them lead the way. Show them all the beauty they possess inside.
I think this is a more accurate assessment.

You kids don't know what you want! That's why you're still kids; 'cause you're stupid!
 

Crayons

Banned
You guys are negative Nancy up in here.

Be happy. Be positive. Life is beautiful. You're beautiful. Children are our future. Teach them well, and let them lead the way. Show them all the beauty they possess inside.

And if her speech doesn't work, she can cough on them and give them hysterical pregnancy and they'll stay home and not vote for Wacky Jill.

17-When-Harry-Met-Sally-quotes.gif
 
You guys are negative Nancy up in here.

Be happy. Be positive. Life is beautiful. You're beautiful. Children are our future. Teach them well, and let them lead the way. Show them all the beauty they possess inside.

And if her speech doesn't work, she can cough on them and give them hysterical pregnancy and they'll stay home and not vote for Wacky Jill.

We're all gonna die, and eventually no one will care that we even existed.
 
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