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[plagiarize]

GOP insiders: Polls don't capture secret Trump vote

Of course they think that. The headline for me saves any blame I'd aim at politico. It sources the quote to GOP insiders. It tells me that they hilariously still believe there's a shy Trump voter even though we haven't seen any evidence of a statistically significant bunch of shy Trump voters.

I mean, I'm sure there are some, but I don't think it outweighs the people who claim they're voting Trump but aren't (the Republican housewives previously highlighted).

This is nothing like 2004 where there was a large group of shy Bush voters (that showed up in exit polls at the very least), and there was very little public support for him. Trump supporters are out there in large numbers. So sure, in some communities you might be a shy Trump supporter, but again there's no evidence that it balances out the shy Clinton voters in other communities.

It's just baseless hopium at this point.

Of course, that doesn't mean there might not be a shy Trump voter. We just haven't seen any signs of it. So even if they do exist in large numbers, it's not logical right now with the evidence we have to believe in them, or fear their existence.

 

[Y2Kev]

updated cook political map

In which Clinton wins without any tossups!!!

 

[plagiarize]

Also, The Upshot fixed their paths to victory thing.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

My 2 cents on the "secret Trump vote"...

There's probably some truth to it but I doubt it's more than 1-2% so in the end it wont even matter since Hillary will still easily win by 4 to 5% points. This election is over, unfortunately.

 

[KyroLen]

My 2 cents on the "secret Trump vote"...

There's probably some truth to it but I doubt it's more than 1-2% so in the end it wont even matter since Hillary will still easily win by 4 to 5% points. This election is over, unfortunately.

Not to mention that any gain, say the 1 to 2% you quoted, would be offset by the "secret Clinton vote" which I truly believe will come from some of the wives of die hard Trump supporting husbands.

 

[Manmademan]

Frankly I think Clinton has a much more valid claim to the silent majority than fucking Trump.

I can't think of anyone that would disagree with you. Unlikely voters are showing up all over the place in early voting- no sign that these are republican.

 

[plagiarize]

My 2 cents on the "secret Trump vote"...

There's probably some truth to it but I doubt it's more than 1-2% so in the end it wont even matter since Hillary will still easily win by 4 to 5% points. This election is over, unfortunately.

There is no evidence that it outweighs any other 'secret' votes. The only evidence presented in the Upshot article is of the 'I know some people who are shy to admit they like Trump'. It doesn't even have any evidence that these people wouldn't admit to a pollster... although they might not.

 

[Plinko]

Not to mention that any gain, say the 1 to 2% you quoted, would be offset by the "secret Clinton vote" which I truly believe will come from some of the wives of die hard Trump supporting husbands.

Came here to post this. Exactly.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I can't think of anyone that would disagree with you.

My 2 cents on the "secret Trump vote"...

There's probably some truth to it but I doubt it's more than 1-2% so in the end it wont even matter since Hillary will still easily win by 4 to 5% points. This election is over, unfortunately.

Yeah me either.

 

[newshinycd]

this is just the same "silent majority" argument the GOP has been claiming exists since the 1980s.

Exactly what I was thinking. If there is a silent majority it would be people supporting Hillary. I honestly think the "secret wife" vote might be a thing.

The other day my wife was talking to her mom and sister, and we got onto the topic of who we were going to vote for. Both of their husbands are Trump supporters and they were both at work. So they started asking me why I voted for Hillary instead of Trump. I could already tell they didn't like Trump too much. I went on my spiel about all the things that make Trump a disgusting human being and about how his ideas are not only outlandish, but incredibly dangerous.
I explained to them that, while I don't agree with Hillary 100%, that she is still the best choice to lead the nation. Then I told them that if they were trying to find a politician who never lies, never makes mistakes, and whom they agree with on everything 100%, they are gonna have a bad time.
By the end of the conversation they said they actually disliked Trump, and that they didn't know who they were going to vote for.
After that we all started making fun of Jill Wifi and Aleppo Johnson for a good 15-20 minutes.

 

[TumblingHippo]

I'm pretty confident any "secret wives" will cancel out the "shy racists".

 

[Barack Lesnar]

There is no evidence that it outweighs any other 'secret' votes. The only evidence presented in the Upshot article is of the 'I know some people who are shy to admit they like Trump'. It doesn't even have any evidence that these people wouldn't admit to a pollster... although they might not.

It's impossible to get evidence for it tho...

Look I'm one of the secret Trump votes...in public I would never admit to being a Trump supporter. I'm a 31 year old RN that works with other RNs who are 99% female and similar age 30-40s (several in their mid 20s too). Any time jokes are made about Trump like all of us going out for a drink after a shift...I laugh and pile on. No way in hell would I ever admit it in public.

To me it's just common sense that the secret Trump vote exists but like i said, unfortunately it's probably not gonna be enough. The straight outta my ass estimate of ~1-2% isn't enough

 

[nature boy]

Yeah I don't think there's a closet Trump voter, it's just living in denial.

Primaries polls were accurate and there's no data to suggest there's a massive secret support for them: if he gets huge rallies and so many folks with signs how the fuck is it secret lol? Pollsters aren't dummies and all the pros in the poll business are point in one direction.

Poolitico shouldn't have even asked the question to its "caucus" and it just adds some credibility to the Bill Mitchells out there.

 

[Cyanity]

My 2 cents on the "secret Trump vote"...

There's probably some truth to it but I doubt it's more than 1-2% so in the end it wont even matter since Hillary will still easily win by 4 to 5% points. This election is over, unfortunately.

Even if the secret Trump vote exists, which I doubt (Because the average Trump voter seems to be incredibly proud of their vote), I feel they will be balanced out and subsequently dwarfed by a humongous group of secret Hillary voters. Women whose SO supports Trump, hard to poll latino groups, etc, are all expected to pull heavily in favor of Hillary - the question now is really how many points ahead that support will be.

edit - beaten to a pulp

 

[Pyrokai]

Do we have any early voting numbers for Ohio? Dems v Reps, etc?

 

[Barack Lesnar]

Even if the secret Trump vote exists, which I doubt (Because the average Trump voter seems to be incredibly proud of their vote),

Not if you're young (or how about a minority). If i was a grandpa that's a different story. It's legit embarrassing to admit you're a young trump supporter. That's the atmosphere that has been created...much of it due to Trump's own fuckups.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Not if you're young (or how about a minority). If i was a grandpa that's a different story. It's legit embarrassing to admit you're a young trump supporter. That's the atmosphere that has been created...much of it due to Trump's own fuckups.

If someone is unable to say, in normal company, that they're voting for Trump, maybe they need to re-examine who they're voting for and why it's embarrassing.

 

[Cyanity]

Not if you're young (or how about a minority). If i was a grandpa that's a different story. It's legit embarrassing to admit you're a young trump supporter. That's the atmosphere that has been created...much of it due to Trump's own fuckups.

I don't doubt that there are many younger people unwilling to admit their support for Trump among friends, but this secret vote is supposedly a large group of people unwilling to respond truthfully to *pollsters* about their vote. I imagine even secret Trump voters would be mostly willing to respond truthfully to pollsters, since friends need not know that answer.

 

[Pyrokai]

I'm only bedwetting about the Senate though. I want a Clinton +10 instead of a Clinton +4 in the end, because that means more likely for Senate control which is SO important.

The House is probably lost, but a +10 probably means higher margins gained than +4.

So that's what I want to see, I guess. Crazy that I'm bedwetting about how big her lead can be instead of who will win : p

 

[Barack Lesnar]

If someone is unable to say, in normal company, that they're voting for Trump, maybe they need to re-examine who they're voting for and why it's embarrassing.

Take this community for example... it's actually a perfect example. Look at posts by people like Pigeon and Amirox. You're automatically called a white supremacist, supporter of white nationalism, racist, bigoted, xenophobic, mysogynist, etc. There's no ambiguity at all in those posts either...no nuance, you're 100% legit labeled those things. In real life it's not nearly as bad b/c people arent behind a computer monitor (calling someone a white supremacist in person would have repercussions and lead to conflict obviously) but it's still difficult to come out in public and admit it as a young person (or PoC).

 

[dramatis]

Well I've seen times the modbot or a mod saying you can repost the thread with (whatever change).

It wouldn't be a small edit to the thread...it would remove all personal opinion and just say "Reasons why people might not trust Hillary's foreign policy"..."Hillary's foreign policy mistakes"... "Reasons why people might not like Hillary"...or some variation of those. That was the reason it was locked, right? Because it was his individual opinion. I was looking forward to reading the responses...probably wouldnt have posted, just wanted to read them.

While I thought the content of the thread had merit, I hated the title and how the title betrayed the perspective by which a lot of people took on Hillary.

Once you put "like" or "don't like" into your assessment, you have already inserted 'personal opinion'.

Worse than that is the object of dislike. When people dislike drone warfare, they say, "I disagree with Obama's drone policy", but when the OP of that thread stated "Hillary's domestic policies are fine, but her foreign policy is why I don't like Hillary", the target of dislike has changed from the policy to the person. Why don't you just say "I don't like Hillary Clinton's foreign policy"? Why does it always end up as "I don't like Hillary Clinton"?

At this point "likability" is practically a dog whistle for "attractive". Hillary Clinton isn't a 10/10, so we would prefer Liz Warren who is higher on our "likability" meter. People who say they would gun for Biden, because he's so charming—without ever researching and recognizing he's more conservative than Hillary. "Liking" someone has never been about policy.

 

[Manmademan]

Do we have any early voting numbers for Ohio? Dems v Reps, etc?

I'm not sure, but Kyle Kondik and Larry Sabato had this to say about Ohio's voting yesterday:

Beware any reporting on Ohio that cites party ID of early voters: Party registration in the state is malleable, as voters can switch between parties depending on which party ballot they take in the primary. Republican turnout was much heavier in the March presidential primary, and while some Democrats who took ballots to vote for Trump will probably stick with him in the fall, there are potentially many Clinton voters who are technically “Republicans” because they voted in the GOP primary for favorite son Gov. John Kasich and others. McDonald has noted that ballot requests are down from 2012 in some big, Democratic counties in Ohio, which is a legitimate concern for Democrats, particularly because black turnout may be down. But it’s also possible that Ohio early voting will be a little back-loaded this time: Early voting started later than in 2012, and this year features two full weekends of in-person early voting (this weekend and next weekend), while 2012 featured only one.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

It's impossible to get evidence for it tho...

Look I'm one of the secret Trump votes...in public I would never admit to being a Trump supporter. I'm a 31 year old RN that works with other RNs who are 99% female and similar age 30-40s (several in their mid 20s too). Any time jokes are made about Trump like all of us going out for a drink after a shift...I laugh and pile on. No way in hell would I ever admit it in public.

To me it's just common sense that the secret Trump vote exists but like i said, unfortunately it's probably not gonna be enough. The straight outta my ass estimate of ~1-2% isn't enough

But if you answered a phone poll what would you say?

I'm in New York--New York!--and I hear people all the time bitching about Hillary or both-sides or two-evils etc. etc. Do I feel like getting into an argument? No. I mostly just keep my mouth shut unless I'm feeling extra chippy.

It's not about what you're comfortable saying in polite or not-so-polite company. It's whether the polls are missing something, which they could only be if people don't want to answer honestly in a poll.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Take this community for example... it's actually a perfect example. Look at posts by people like Pigeon and Amirox. You're automatically called a white supremacist, supporter of white nationalism, racist, bigoted, xenophobic, mysogynist, etc. There's no ambiguity at all in those posts either...no nuance, you're 100% legit labeled those things. In real life it's not nearly as bad b/c people arent behind a computer monitor (calling someone a white supremacist in person would have repercussions and lead to conflict obviously) but it's still difficult to come out in public and admit it as a young person (or PoC).

Ask yourself why do people call Trump a white supremacist.

People did not call Romney or McCain or Bush white supremacists.

 

[tedrotheredro]

It's impossible to get evidence for it tho...

Look I'm one of the secret Trump votes...in public I would never admit to being a Trump supporter. I'm a 31 year old RN that works with other RNs who are 99% female and similar age 30-40s (several in their mid 20s too). Any time jokes are made about Trump like all of us going out for a drink after a shift...I laugh and pile on. No way in hell would I ever admit it in public.

To me it's just common sense that the secret Trump vote exists but like i said, unfortunately it's probably not gonna be enough. The straight outta my ass estimate of ~1-2% isn't enough

By the same token, I wouldn't say I support Clinton around my southern friends and family. But that's not how polls and pollsters work. Would you lie to a pollster calling you? Then you'd be the secret Trump vote. Not wanting to talk politics in public is normal.

 

[Cyanity]

Take this community for example... it's actually a perfect example. Look at posts by people like Pigeon and Amirox. You're automatically called a white supremacist, supporter of white nationalism, racist, bigoted, xenophobic, mysogynist, etc. There's no ambiguity at all in those posts either...no nuance, you're 100% legit labeled those things. In real life it's not nearly as bad b/c people arent behind a computer monitor (calling someone a white supremacist in person would have repercussions and lead to conflict obviously) but it's still difficult to come out in public and admit it as a young person (or PoC).

When the person someone is supporting for president is all of those things, it's not hard to project that candidate's flaws onto his supporters.

 

[newshinycd]

But if you answered a phone poll what would you say?

Yea I think Heavy forgot the article was talking about Trump supporters being shy towards pollsters.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

RE: phone poll...

I'm not really sure how I'd respond. First thing i'd think was "am i being prank called?" because i've never been called like that for a political poll.

Curious...has anyone here been called for one of those polls?

 

[bomma_man]

Take this community for example... it's actually a perfect example. Look at posts by people like Pigeon and Amirox. You're automatically called a white supremacist, supporter of white nationalism, racist, bigoted, xenophobic, mysogynist, etc. There's no ambiguity at all in those posts either...no nuance, you're 100% legit labeled those things. In real life it's not nearly as bad b/c people arent behind a computer monitor (calling someone a white supremacist in person would have repercussions and lead to conflict obviously) but it's still difficult to come out in public and admit it as a young person (or PoC).

What they say - and this is completely true - is that if you support trump you are either a white supremist or you don't think his white suprememcy is a big enough negative to outweigh other policies that you like. I don't know how you can deny this.

 

[Cyanity]

RE: phone poll...

I'm not really sure how I'd respond. First thing i'd think was "am i being prank called?" because i've never been called like that for a political poll.

Curious...has anyone here been called for one of those polls?

I live in Massachusetts, the bluest state in the union, so no, I've never received a polling call.

 

[dramatis]

Curious...has anyone here been called for one of those polls?

Yes, been called several times, and I'm in NYC.

 

[Manmademan]

RE: phone poll...

I'm not really sure how I'd respond. First thing i'd think was "am i being prank called?" because i've never been called like that for a political poll.

Curious...has anyone here been called for one of those polls?

yup. pretty common if you're in a swing state.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

Do you guys have landlines or are they calling your cells? I only have a cell
(i'm in a swing state as well)

Bomma- i'll answer that later, have to leave

how old do you think we are here

Lol true

 

[Beer Monkey]

Women that won't admit to disagreeing with their husband's vote to a pollster if their husband is nearby is a very real thing.

 

[bangbang i'm a timpani]

Take this community for example... it's actually a perfect example. Look at posts by people like Pigeon and Amirox. You're automatically called a white supremacist, supporter of white nationalism, racist, bigoted, xenophobic, mysogynist, etc. There's no ambiguity at all in those posts either...no nuance, you're 100% legit labeled those things. In real life it's not nearly as bad b/c people arent behind a computer monitor (calling someone a white supremacist in person would have repercussions and lead to conflict obviously) but it's still difficult to come out in public and admit it as a young person (or PoC).

A lot of the time when I've criticized Clinton I get called a mysogynist. Any time you say something like "hey guys......this new stuff released today is legit fucked up but trump is so awful that it doesn't matter" you'll get run into the ground.

 

[Manmademan]

Do you guys have landlines or are they calling your cells? I only have a cell
(i'm in a swing state as well)

Bomma- i'll answer that later, have to leave

how old do you think we are here

 

[Cyanity]

A lot of the time when I've criticized Clinton I get called a mysogynist. Any time you say something like "hey guys......this new stuff released today is legit fucked up but trump is so awful that it doesn't matter" you'll get run into the ground.

Well now I'm curious what event or email you're referring to

 

[Bubblicious]

Not to mention that any gain, say the 1 to 2% you quoted, would be offset by the "secret Clinton vote" which I truly believe will come from some of the wives of die hard Trump supporting husbands.

This might happen because in the Primaries I believe many Clinton supporters had to remain secretive due to some of their Bernie supporting friends being very hostile toward them. I imagine many voters (not just women) in deep red parts of the US might have to do the same.

 

[sazzy]

why is Tim Kaine slacking?!!!

 

[Cyanity]

Are Clinton and Trump gonna wrestle in Cedar Rapids?

 

[DrForester]

What the hell?

Today show story on the Pence plane incident included a few seconds tying the crash to Trump's comments about our airports being like those from a third world country...




Also, the Orange Menace is returning to Colorado this weekend...

 

[RustyNails]

Loser candidates banking on "secret voter" is an age old American tradition. Besides, Trump voters do not have a single fiber of self-awareness in their being so why the fuck would they be shy.

 

[Y2Kev]

I can't believe how active trump actually is. He's doing 3x rallies a day.

Clinton is taking like the rest of the campaign off.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Please tell me those weren't real maps created by a non-joke character...

Just maps created to make a joke.

Apparently it went over like a lead balloon.

 

[HylianTom]

Per WSJ:

U.S. economic growth bounces back, with GDP rising at a 2.9% rate in the third quarter

Hells jeah.

 

[SexyFish]

Per WSJ:


Hells jeah.

NOT BIG LEAGUE ENOUGH

 

[sazzy]

Just maps created to make a joke.

Apparently it went over like a lead balloon.

its a good joke

I also remember the sales-age graph it comes from, years ago lol

god i feel old


edit- post the original if you have it lol

 

[A Link to the Past]

I can't believe how active trump actually is. He's doing 3x rallies a day.

Clinton is taking like the rest of the campaign off.

Imagine if Trump fainted from over-exertion

 

[plagiarize]

I can't believe how active trump actually is. He's doing 3x rallies a day.

Clinton is taking like the rest of the campaign off.

It's hilarious to me that he's in Maine of all places. Like it's going to come down to 1 fucking electoral college vote.

 

[cooljeanius]

This election I did vote for one Republican for Sheriff.

The Democrat running is not only running with the slogan "God First" but also was fired from the very same department he is running for around 8 years ago.

I'm voting for Republicans for Sheriff, County Attorney, County Treasurer, Register of Probate, and Register of Deeds. In the case of Sheriff and County Attorney, the Republicans and Democrats nominated the same person, so I figure I might as well fill in the bubble in the Republican column. For the other 3, they're all incumbents that everyone around here knows personally and likes. My mom talked to the current Republican Register of Probate at the gym the other day and apparently she's voting for Hillary. If there's 1 level of government that government should be small at, it's county government, at least in New Hampshire. We have a strong tradition of powerful town-level government, and it should be the cities and towns that the state-level government deals with, not the counties. Powerful counties are a southern thing, and can stay southern for all I'm concerned.