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Legend of Zelda Mafia |OT| A Lynch to the Past

Ty4on

Member
Nin is... Nin

Stanley is not pressured enough. In a few hours he should be awake.

I've thought a bit about potential neutrals, but I guess you could put anyone there. Sort of looking like we have a neutral killer as neither target made much sense for town vig and double kill for scum this early feels wrong.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
Nin is... Nin

Stanley is not pressured enough. In a few hours he should be awake.

I've thought a bit about potential neutrals, but I guess you could put anyone there. Sort of looking like we have a neutral killer as neither target made much sense for town vig and double kill for scum this early feels wrong.

Let's wait for another data point before making assumptions?
 

Ynnek7

Member
Doing a read through:

I also currently believe Natiko's claim, though I can see it as an adequate cover to stay alive for a neutral killer. I'm thinking a Archer like SK where the win condition is kill x amount of people.

Was a bit confused by this. Do you mean that Natiko claiming to have lost an item would make it less likely for town to lynch him or for scum to ignore him at night? Just not sure of the what the connection is.

------

So it seems like most of today is focusing on CCS. Lynching him today will resolve the acohrs/CCS discussion, and allow us to look more closely at where everyone's votes were placed at the end of Day 1.

VOTE: CCS

As of right now, Kawl and Splinter are voting for him. On top of that, Bronx had a vote until he moved it to Nin, and Melon has made it clear that she intends to vote for CCS as well. Out of this group, the only new person to vote for CCS who didn't vote for him day one is Splinter.

VOTE: CCS

I decided a while ago tbh. I'm not super hopeful about him flipping scum, but like Kyan said scum aren't going to remove him from the game and I don't trust the potential neutral to do it either. Only way I could see him being cleared at this point is Kawl flipping scum. Meanwhile the conversation is undeniably stuck on him, and day 1 will be easier to analyse when his role is known.

I'm still getting a bad reading of him, but there's also something else that's kind of sticking in my mind about him. Allow me to quote a few posts....

It's interesting because Sorian was killed for no definite reason.

Of the two kills I am more inclined to believe Fran was iced by scum and Sorian by either a vig or 3p. Reason I say that is Fran was relatively quiet and thus unlikely to be protected, yet his strong push for aco would have made it very hard to build a case against him later in the game.

Lol you mean besides being sorian?

CCS is still in his my first mafia diapers.

Alright, so there's this movie called "For Love of the Game", a baseball movie staring Kevin Costner who plays an aging pitcher who is playing in his final game. Over the course of the movie, people realize that he's on his way to pitching a no-hitter. In the final inning, the rival coach sends out a rookie pinch-hitter to bat. The reason for this is because the new guy would be the least likely to be intimidated by either a talented pitcher or the significance of their last game being a no-hitter.

To bring it back, I think CCS is the new guy and Sorian is Kevin Costner. The scum team probably went for fran for the reasons CzarTim gave, while CCS may have been the one to go for one of our most experienced players. If that's the case, he's either a neutral SK or vigilante who's cost us a townie while playing pretty anti-town.
 

Sophia

Member
Natiko said there was a thief, so it's most likely that either the thief is neutral and another faction has a kill, or scum have the thief and there's an unaccounted kill from somewhere.

Beyond that, not much else to speculate on. This assumes Natiko is telling the truth as well.
 

cabot

Member
Doing a read through:



Was a bit confused by this. Do you mean that Natiko claiming to have lost an item would make it less likely for town to lynch him or for scum to ignore him at night? Just not sure of the what the connection is.


To bring it back, I think CCS is the new guy and Sorian is Kevin Costner. The scum team probably went for fran for the reasons CzarTim gave, while CCS may have been the one to go for one of our most experienced players. If that's the case, he's either a neutral SK or vigilante who's cost us a townie while playing pretty anti-town.

I just thought claiming the items would have bought him at least a day or two without being lynched.


If CCS was vigilante i don't know why he wouldn't have claimed by now. He may be SK, but I highly doubt he's a vigilante.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
Doing a read through:



Was a bit confused by this. Do you mean that Natiko claiming to have lost an item would make it less likely for town to lynch him or for scum to ignore him at night? Just not sure of the what the connection is.

------

So it seems like most of today is focusing on CCS. Lynching him today will resolve the acohrs/CCS discussion, and allow us to look more closely at where everyone's votes were placed at the end of Day 1.

VOTE: CCS

As of right now, Kawl and Splinter are voting for him. On top of that, Bronx had a vote until he moved it to Nin, and Melon has made it clear that she intends to vote for CCS as well. Out of this group, the only new person to vote for CCS who didn't vote for him day one is Splinter.



I'm still getting a bad reading of him, but there's also something else that's kind of sticking in my mind about him. Allow me to quote a few posts....









Alright, so there's this movie called "For Love of the Game", a baseball movie staring Kevin Costner who plays an aging pitcher who is playing in his final game. Over the course of the movie, people realize that he's on his way to pitching a no-hitter. In the final inning, the rival coach sends out a rookie pinch-hitter to bat. The reason for this is because the new guy would be the least likely to be intimidated by either a talented pitcher or the significance of their last game being a no-hitter.

To bring it back, I think CCS is the new guy and Sorian is Kevin Costner. The scum team probably went for fran for the reasons CzarTim gave, while CCS may have been the one to go for one of our most experienced players. If that's the case, he's either a neutral SK or vigilante who's cost us a townie while playing pretty anti-town.

It was a perfect game in for the love of the game. Damn get your metaphors straight.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
Hmmm. Defending nin seems to be a big point of interest for you. I wonder why that is.
Lol a shit post at you

And a post saying if my preferred lynch is scum nin is next at the top of my list and saying regardless of his alignment I don't plan on letting a nin get to end game.

Yea damn I guess nin doesn't even need to post with me running interference so smoothly.

:lol
 

Ty4on

Member
No I mean like let's see if we have two deaths tonight
That's a decent point. Maybe it's x-shot and terrified scum decided to use it quickly.

I'd totally use it early

I'm just used to extra scum kills having a wind up of some sort. Either poison or needing to charge up.
 

Bronx-Man

Banned
Lol a shit post at you

And a post saying if my preferred lynch is scum nin is next at the top of my list and saying regardless of his alignment I don't plan on letting a nin get to end game.

Yea damn I guess nin doesn't even need to post with me running interference so smoothly.

:lol

Yes because waiting for anything non nonsensical to come from nin is bound to be productive for town.
All this hostility and defensiveness. It's telling.
 

MagnumBoy20xx

Neo Member
First things first, I want to apologise for not being as active as I should have in this game so far. I probably should have paid more attention to the thread and posted more. With that being said, I will definitely be more helpful as I now have something concrete to work with: final day vote results!

Final vote count for Day 1:

natiko (0)
sorian 244 (264)

splinter (0)
melonrabbit 245 (756)

sorian (0)
ty4on 246 (547)
sophia 323 (477)
acohrs 669 (889)
acohrs 1018 (1091)

melonrabbit (0)
bronx-man 251 (491)
cabot 765 (811)
czartim 774 (903)
kyanrute 931 (1089)

sophia (2)
pop-o-matic 253
czartim 364 (585)
ty4on 827 (1098)
czartim 903 (1083)
ccs 991

bronx-man (0)
sorian 264 (453)

cabot (0)
ccs 268 (377)
kawl_usc 471 (751)
*splinter 545 (1069)

magnumboy20xx (0)
acohrs 277 (388)
czartim 585 (591)

acohrs (8)
natiko 362 (427)
sorian 456 (516)
natiko 590 (1099)
franconp 770
acohrs 889 (997)
cabot 979 (1103)
sorian 1048
*splinter 1069
nin1000 1081
czartim 1083
kyanrute 1089
ty4on 1098
sophia 1101

kawl_usc (0)
cabot 370 (612)
sophia 477 (693)
sorian 516 (583)
kawl_usc 751 (865)

absolutbro (1)
ccs 377 (658)
cabot 612 (765)
magnumboy20xx 664

kawl (0)
acohrs 409 (499)

acorhs (0)
sorian 453 (456)

pop-o-matic (0)
stanleypalmtree 563 (829)
cabot 811 (916)

stanleypalmtree (0)
ty4on 564 (827)

ty4on (0)
sorian 583 (1048)
czartim 591 (633)
ccs 658 (801)
ccs 830 (873)

ccs (6)
melonrabbit 756
stanleypalmtree 829
kawl_usc 865
ccs 873 (991)
bronx-man 987
sophia 1007 (1101)
ynnek7 1062
acohrs 1091
absolutbro 1092 (1106)

nin1000 (0)
cabot 916 (979)

Let's look at the votes that occurred at the end of the day phase. By post 1069, acohrs had 5 votes(natiko,franconp,Cabot,sorian,and *splinter)while ccs had 6(melonrabbit,stanleypalmtree,kawl_usc,bronx-man,Sophia,and ynnek7). As the end of the phase drew near, nin1000,czartim,and kyanrute all voted for acohrs giving him 8 votes to ccs' 6. This is when things get interesting. Acohrs votes for ccs claiming that he is creating a tie, but all his vote does is make it 7 votes for ccs and 8 votes for him. The votes only become tied one post later when absolutbro also votes for ccs. The tie is broken by ty4on,who votes for acohrs, but is restored a post later when natiko unvotes. The tie is then broken for good when Sophia switches her vote from ccs to acohrs at the last second. Both Cabot and absolutbro unvote, but the unvotes wouldn't have mattered since they just cancel each other out.

So what does this tell us? It tells us one detail that I think we would have missed otherwise: The now confirmed scum, acohrs didn't create the tie, absolutbro did!

Why did acohrs claim to make a tie when his vote clearly didn't? Did he make a mistake by miscounting? Possibly, but I think that the mistake he made wasn't that but rather posting too early. If he had posted right after absolutbro, he would have caused a tie, just like he claimed he did. If the mafia wanted to cause a tie this should be how it would have gone down, with the shady player seemingly capitalizing on the opportunity to tie. Instead it was the other way around, with the shady player making the opportunity and the player nowhere near the chopping block making the tie. This might be why absolutbro unvoted dispite the fact that it would do nothing to the result, it made it seem like his earlier vote was a accident rather then on purpose. It's because of this that I think absolutbro is mafia.

vote: absolutbro

I know that my vote on him and the reasoning behind it last day phase was weak, even I can admit that. But this time, after going through the vote results multiple times, this is what I found. I know that it sounds like a bluff straight out of Ace attorney, but like those bluffs I'm going to ride this vote out to find the truth!
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Zelda Fact of the Day #5: Did you know that Sheik was originally supposed to appear in the Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess but never made it into the final game? Or that this unused Sheik design was eventually re-purposed as Sheik's Super Smash Bros. Brawl design? Now you know!

Current Vote Count:

natiko (0)
cabot 1130 (1234)

bronx-man (0)
czartim 1131 (1620)

ccs (3)
kawl_usc 1143
bronx-man 1209 (1644)
*splinter 1546
ynnek7 1654

cabot (1)
nin1000 1152 (1208)
melonrabbit 1553

*splinter (0)
cabot 1234 (1260)

ty4on (0)
cabot 1260 (1295)

magnumboy20xx (1)
absolutbro 1282

ynnek7 (0)
cabot 1295 (1476)

kawl_usc (0)
ccs 1301 (1377)

stanleypalmtree (1)
ccs 1410 (1604)
czartim 1620

melonrabbit (2)
cabot 1476
ccs 1604

nin1000 (1)
bronx-man 1644

absolutbro (1)
magnumboy20xx 1668

Day 2 Ends in:
gre_1484434800.png

Vote Count can be found HERE
 

Natiko

Banned
First things first, I want to apologise for not being as active as I should have in this game so far. I probably should have paid more attention to the thread and posted more. With that being said, I will definitely be more helpful as I now have something concrete to work with: final day vote results!



Let's look at the votes that occurred at the end of the day phase. By post 1069, acohrs had 5 votes(natiko,franconp,Cabot,sorian,and *splinter)while ccs had 6(melonrabbit,stanleypalmtree,kawl_usc,bronx-man,Sophia,and ynnek7). As the end of the phase drew near, nin1000,czartim,and kyanrute all voted for acohrs giving him 8 votes to ccs' 6. This is when things get interesting. Acohrs votes for ccs claiming that he is creating a tie, but all his vote does is make it 7 votes for ccs and 8 votes for him. The votes only become tied one post later when absolutbro also votes for ccs. The tie is broken by ty4on,who votes for acohrs, but is restored a post later when natiko unvotes. The tie is then broken for good when Sophia switches her vote from ccs to acohrs at the last second. Both Cabot and absolutbro unvote, but the unvotes wouldn't have mattered since they just cancel each other out.

So what does this tell us? It tells us one detail that I think we would have missed otherwise: The now confirmed scum, acohrs didn't create the tie, absolutbro did!

Why did acohrs claim to make a tie when his vote clearly didn't? Did he make a mistake by miscounting? Possibly, but I think that the mistake he made wasn't that but rather posting too early. If he had posted right after absolutbro, he would have caused a tie, just like he claimed he did. If the mafia wanted to cause a tie this should be how it would have gone down, with the shady player seemingly capitalizing on the opportunity to tie. Instead it was the other way around, with the shady player making the opportunity and the player nowhere near the chopping block making the tie. This might be why absolutbro unvoted dispite the fact that it would do nothing to the result, it made it seem like his earlier vote was a accident rather then on purpose. It's because of this that I think absolutbro is mafia.

vote: absolutbro

I know that my vote on him and the reasoning behind it last day phase was weak, even I can admit that. But this time, after going through the vote results multiple times, this is what I found. I know that it sounds like a bluff straight out of Ace attorney, but like those bluffs I'm going to ride this vote out to find the truth!

While taking the time to do this makes me feel a little better about you - I will play devil's advocate by pointing out that kyan's vote on acohrs which created the two vote gap came only two posts prior to acohrs' vote trying to tie it up. I think he just didn't see kyan's vote prior to going in and typing his out. I find that more likely than scum team biffing coordinated votes that poorly, especially since it would draw so much attention to them both.
 

Natiko

Banned
Also sorry everyone for not posting much besides my series about why I still don't feel good about CCS. I had a busy couple of days at work. I just caught back up on posts and am going to try and go back through and update some of my notes and see where my thoughts land.
 

Ty4on

Member
While taking the time to do this makes me feel a little better about you - I will play devil's advocate by pointing out that kyan's vote on acohrs which created the two vote gap came only two posts prior to acohrs' vote trying to tie it up. I think he just didn't see kyan's vote prior to going in and typing his out. I find that more likely than scum team biffing coordinated votes that poorly, especially since it would draw so much attention to them both.
My thoughts when reading it. Looked to me like Kyan ninja'd him.
 

Natiko

Banned
Does anyone recall acohrs' insistence on pushing an inactive lynch D1? While I think one of the scum could fall in that group I doubt there's more than that. I don't think I'll put a vote down in that group today. I'd sooner lynch CCS.
 

Natiko

Banned
raid night last night so I didn't really read the thread well. Going to get some breakfast and caffeine and come back. Going to be "awesome" trying to keep up with this thread though.

OK moving on swiftly from my prior mistake, let's try a real prod vote. So who hasn't commented yet? Cabot says splinter, Kawl, and absolutbro. Splinter and Absolut have commented, so just gotta get back on the horse!

vote: Kawl

What are your thoughts on this game? Is ramen a godlike dish?

Isn't his scum play kinda quiet? Last time I saw him scum in forum disguise was Love Boat, but I've played against him in live games where he's more quiet when scum.

-------

XX:54

XX:56


You're fast

Actually was going to vote absolut and started writing that but it took several minutes since I was on phone. Went back to thread to check the correct names and saw new posts and that absolut had posted. Instead of scrapping the post, just switched it to Kawl without checking for prior prods hence the mistake...

That being said, knowing what we know now this exchange sticks out a bit to me. Perhaps acohrs knew AbsolutBro would be checking in and was already preparing the Kawl push hoping it may catch some steam?
 

Sophia

Member
Also I lost my post during that and had to retype ALL of that and it shot my nerves. Stepping away for a few minutes. Jesus Christ that sucked.
 

Natiko

Banned
I feel your pain. During my first game in Persona I lost a really long post I had typed due to my phone refreshing out of nowhere. Ever since then I've started copying all of the text anytime I navigate to a different tab on mobile lol
 

Sophia

Member
I feel your pain. During my first game in Persona I lost a really long post I had typed due to my phone refreshing out of nowhere. Ever since then I've started copying all of the text anytime I navigate to a different tab on mobile lol

That's what I normally do. But I went completely stupid there. Made sure I didn't make that mistake twice.

For the most part, the two bolded are what really stand out as far as I could tell. He named four people who he kind of threw shade on there in Absolut, Magnum, Ynnek, and Nin, but never really pushed more on them as far as I could tell.
 

Natiko

Banned
That's what I normally do. But I went completely stupid there. Made sure I didn't make that mistake twice.

For the most part, the two bolded are what really stand out as far as I could tell. He named four people who he kind of threw shade on there in Absolut, Magnum, Ynnek, and Nin, but never really pushed more on them as far as I could tell.

I think you're on the right track. I've noted some similar things as well. I'm working on posting some revised thoughts.
 

Ty4on

Member
That being said, knowing what we know now this exchange sticks out a bit to me. Perhaps acohrs knew AbsolutBro would be checking in and was already preparing the Kawl push hoping it may catch some steam?

Hmm. Hmm hmm

I thought it was a pointless observation back then, but two things stick out more now. Firstly, how does that post work as an AB vote? The post seems to only really work if there's only one persone who hasn't commented on the game. He's voting on the person who has yet to post.
It's also kinda weird that he chose to reply. Hard thing to make much out of since it's so random, but I feel like the natural response is to wonder why I care and ignore my post.

If W/W I think he might have seen AB waking up and posting in the scum chat so in his mind he was already active and posting.
 

Ty4on

Member
I feel your pain. During my first game in Persona I lost a really long post I had typed due to my phone refreshing out of nowhere. Ever since then I've started copying all of the text anytime I navigate to a different tab on mobile lol
That's what I normally do. But I went completely stupid there. Made sure I didn't make that mistake twice.

For the most part, the two bolded are what really stand out as far as I could tell. He named four people who he kind of threw shade on there in Absolut, Magnum, Ynnek, and Nin, but never really pushed more on them as far as I could tell.

Get auto refresh when scrolling up the fuck out of your browser. There's a Chrome flag for remving it.

I hate Chrome so much for that. Not only on by default, but disabling it is way harder than it should be.
 

Sophia

Member
Get auto refresh when scrolling up the fuck out of your browser. There's a Chrome flag for remving it.

I hate Chrome so much for that. Not only on by default, but disabling it is way harder than it should be.

Actually what happened was I hit the extra mouse button that's bound to "Go back" and it went back to a version of the post that had basically nothing. And it ate the post when I tried to go forward. ;_;
 
I have no pride, no shame, no honour. I thought that was clear.
You are really making me rethink if lynching you is truly as much a waste as I think it would be.

The votes only become tied one post later when absolutbro also votes for ccs. The tie is broken by ty4on,who votes for acohrs, but is restored a post later when natiko unvotes. The tie is then broken for good when Sophia switches her vote from ccs to acohrs at the last second. Both Cabot and absolutbro unvote, but the unvotes wouldn't have mattered since they just cancel each other out.

So what does this tell us? It tells us one detail that I think we would have missed otherwise: The now confirmed scum, acohrs didn't create the tie, absolutbro did!

Why did acohrs claim to make a tie when his vote clearly didn't? Did he make a mistake by miscounting? Possibly, but I think that the mistake he made wasn't that but rather posting too early. If he had posted right after absolutbro, he would have caused a tie, just like he claimed he did. If the mafia wanted to cause a tie this should be how it would have gone down, with the shady player seemingly capitalizing on the opportunity to tie. Instead it was the other way around, with the shady player making the opportunity and the player nowhere near the chopping block making the tie. This might be why absolutbro unvoted dispite the fact that it would do nothing to the result, it made it seem like his earlier vote was a accident rather then on purpose. It's because of this that I think absolutbro is mafia.

vote: absolutbro

Check the time stamps, Acohrs's and my posts were literally posted less than a minute apart. If we were scum together, I would like to think we would at least have the foresight to say "let me post first" or something equally simple in scum chat. As for unvoting "dispite [sic] the fact that it would do nothing to the result", I also explained that. I saw the mess Acohrs's and my votes created and wanted no part of that. I was down to the wire on time so I typed as fast as I could, and tried to post. I didn't see the other votes/unvotes because I was watching the GAF post timer count down. My unvote came barely a minute after my vote post.

Two days, two only-votes, two weak justifications. How's that tunnel look?

I will prod though.
He posted, and I am not one for OMGUS votes, so:
unvote

I started to build a quote case on melon, but it seems once again everything I would say has been covered. I'm not going to out-of-nowhere-dogpile a vote in on her now. That did kill my train of thought though. Sorry for being useless, my dad makes it to this coast once or twice a year at most.

I will be around again in an hour or so, maybe two. Managed to sneak in while people were resting/napping after dinner.
 

Ty4on

Member
Actually what happened was I hit the extra mouse button that's bound to "Go back" and it went back to a version of the post that had basically nothing. And it ate the post when I tried to go forward. ;_;

I've done that a few times...

I just Ctrl+Z in frustration when that happens :S
 
so you all just kinda fell apart for a bit there this morning, huh?
mafia's one hell of a drug.

anyway, because i kinda forgot to do this earlier.

vote: CCS

and going back to the small DADV discussion earlier, i have to agree with Kawl take on it, how CCS has basically dug himself such a spectacular hole at this point, that any attempt attempt from potential scum buddies to defend him would look flimsy at best, and just more like put themselves on the chopping block next.

Stanley: No offense, but you're usually a lot more helpful during games like these. All you've done so far is just post fluff. It's fine to do that at the start of D1 like everyone else, but we're almost at the end of D2 now. If you're not scum, then you're definitely playing as bad town right now.

i wont lie, this got a laugh outa me,
im never helpful.

As for Nin's bizarrely antagonistic play, can we first agree that it is just adorable?
but yeah, town or not he really is nothing but a problem playing like he is, gonna have to go eventually.
 

Natiko

Banned
Well sorry that took so long (not that much has happened in the meantime), I was playing games on the side and that led to it taking forever.

Town
Ty4on - I read him as town D1 and nothing has changed my feelings since then. His vote at the end of D1 makes my feelings even more firm.

CzarTim - I find his posts insightful and think he has been putting genuine thought into his posts.

Cabot - Has been very helpful in analyzing the situation and posting useful insight. His vote and unvote do not concern me as I know first hand what he was going through at the time.

Kyanrute - I felt some of his play D1 was scummy, but he has really turned it around since then. His continued elevation of play in D2 has really helped alongside his voting at the end of D1 (which he called in advance if the choice came between acohrs and CCS).

Lean Town
Sophia - Her contributions seem to be fairly good and the vote switch at the end of D1 makes her look better than before. Still slight concern due to how ambivalent she seemed about her switch to acohrs in D2. Seemed like she couldn't have cared less who she voted for which if that is the case - why switch?

Null
melonrabbit - Has been a relative non-entity today. I don't have great feelings about her so she's closer to scum than town, but I don't feel as strongly as I previously did. Think she may just be a frustrated townie.

CCS - Definitely closer to scum than town, but he's just a blackhole of nonsense so who the hell knows anymore. I'm trying to not focus on him and let his crazy antics pull me in for now.

Kawl_USC - Would maybe be my first guess at a potential neutral. He hasn't contributed much of anything. He mainly gets into pointless discussions but doesn't really say much that's directly scummy. Also didn't seem to be a fan of Sorian, and well..

Ynnek7 - Felt scummy at times and the CCS vote rubbed me the wrong way. His reads in post 757 make me feel a little better though. Enough to plant him in neutral for now.

nin1000 - My second guess at a possible neutral. Just in general seems to enjoy posting fluff. Not sure scum would want this big of a spotlight on them so I'm going null for now.

Terrabyte20xx - Null, nothing to go off still.

Magnumboy20xx - Null, nothing to go off still.

Lean Scum
AbsolutBro -
I swear every game I'm in these are the same comments I get. D1 is my weak spot. I don't like going off D1 gut feelings, even though eventually I will get a vote down. It's also the weekend, and I have farm stuff to do that I cannot do when I'm working during the week.
Seeding the ground for his later vote shenanigans and missing the target.

I'm having to collect this from reading the .net site, and then posting from mobile so apologies if my quotes break or something. I am back in the office, and have a couple meetings this morning (now over), but will be around until 1530 EST. Will try to be useful. I'm reading the thread from the top and making notes/reads as I go, so apologies if some of this is repetitive. I also can't use the post count/search features, so apologies again if this is scattered.

StanleyPalmtree - Kind of chatty for Stan, actually. :p

Acohrs - Can't tell if it's new player jitters or just trying to keep up with some of the bigger posters. Random posts all over the place, but nothing that immediately reads "smoke screen" to me.


There were a couple posts pg7/pg14 about my play style and yeah, I am really not great at the early game. I wanted to work on that this game, but with the game starting on a Friday and going over the weekend I just couldn't get here as much as I wanted to.
The Stanley read is all fluff. The acohrs one reeks of "Let me throw a few pot shots at my teammate but then not actually follow through on it".

I voted late, and by pure chance voted during Acohrs's vote. I even explained in my vote why I picked CCS over Acohrs, even though I wasn't sure either was scum. My vote and unvote (when I realized my vote caused a mess), were two GAF minutes apart, and given GAF's minute post timer I unvoted as fast as I could.

And before you ask, I unvoted because "Unvote" is faster to type the "Vote: Acohrs" when I was up against the time limit.

FWIW though I agree with you here. I cannot imagine both Acohrs AND CCS are scum, otherwise why discuss Rugby of all things in the game thread and not scum chat?

I made a mistake during end day, honestly. I had multiple tabs open trying to track the thread while I posted. It is how I ended up posting a count that was wrong by the time I posted it.
So you made a mistake by not following the vote count because you had multiple tabs open tracking the thread and missed..the votes..? Perhaps these multiple tabs you were tracking weren't explicitly the game thread.

*Splinter -
This post made me townread Sorian a bit, he picked up on Ty's posts in the same way I did.

I think the random Stan read is interesting. I've liked Stan's posts so far (particularly how easily he dismissed my joke vote on cabot) but I don't know if I agree that he's been "normal". Sorian can elaborate on what you meant by that?
Ok so this explanation is sticking out to me a bit because I can't agree with it. I feel like Stan is trying a bit harder than usual. Not so much that I think he's scum but enough that I disagree with you calling him his normal self.
Oh yeah, other reads.

Stan I mentioned yesterday felt a little different to usual, some disagreed but I don't think I'm the only one that noticed it. That subtle change combined with his vote earns him a scumread from me.

Everyone else is varying degrees of null. AB gets a mention for his vote but tbh I'm waiting until CCS flips before I really try and analyse that stuff.

Don't really follow the Stanley logic here. You go from making note of his posting, but even saying you like the change to them voting for him based on the change. Shout out to the AB mention and then instant brush off. This is the lightest of my scum reads to be fair and I'll fully admit part of it is due to me thinking of those that voted for acohrs if any of them are scum I'm leaning Splinter or nin. I also feel like Splinter has done a lot of posting without sharing much of meaning, kind of like Ty4on got accused of D1 by a few of you.

Scum
Bronx-Man -
Dude, calm down. Those are the only reads I have right now. Though acohrs is looking pretty fishy to me tbh.
Anyways, onto some reads while I'm 10,000 ft in the sky:

acohrs: Maybe my memory's fucking with me but I don't remember you doing the whole "I'm just a helpless skrub, please take pity on me, fellow townies" schtick during Pop Mafia. Hell, you were probably one of the most cunning scum during that game.

But then that makes me wonder, if he was scum, surely he wouldn't be acting as sloppy as he is right now? Just acting weird in general, gonna have to keep an eye on him.
Vote: CCS

It's come down to these two, and frankly, acohrs is playing a lot more sloppily here compared to Pop Mafia where he actually was scum. But if CCS flips town, I will vote for acohrs on D2.
"Boy this acohrs guy really feels suspect to me, better vote CCS instead for no real reason and then deal with acohrs tomorrow!"

AB is someone I've got my eye on for not posting that much. Though if I used "not posting a lot" and "doesn't like D1's" for voting someone scum, I'd probably be a tremendous hypocrite.
Shout out to mentioning AB and then never worrying about it again.

Apologies, apologies for not posting this last night like I wanted to. Reads:

nin: Going back to D1, I remember now that when Sorian came at me for my joke post, he took it pretty seriously. Everyone else saw it as a joke for what is was, everyone except for nin that is. Sorian turned out to be town, but this and the whole "Bronx is usually playing scared" comment don't sit right with me. If he wasn't trying to start a potential train on me, it feels almost like he's trying to signal it for someone else.

Stanley: No offense, but you're usually a lot more helpful during games like these. All you've done so far is just post fluff. It's fine to do that at the start of D1 like everyone else, but we're almost at the end of D2 now. If you're not scum, then you're definitely playing as bad town right now.

CCS: Again, you were one of the two players I had the strongest reads on at the end of D2. I said myself that the odds of you and acohrs both being scum are unlikely, but I won't rule it out entirely.

Lean town: Sophia, Cabot, Ty

Null on everyone else. Though melon is someone I need to study on for a while.
What even are these reads. "Here's a few people that I won't assign anything to, but let me throw a few shots out just in case I need to use this as proof later that I wasn't on their side. Oh and here's a few safe town picks." Either those top three reads are garbage or they're your scum reads and you forgot to specify which might be even more suspect given CCS would be in that group and you had the flip flopping incident before.

StanleyPalmtree -
Acohrs? Acorhs? Achtol- dog person is playing the *im new at this and you all sound like crazy people so take pity on me card* (yes, some of that is me projecting) and to be honest i think im buying it, for now at least. most thanks to them continuing to be somewhat outspoken in the face of their mistakes, rather than hiding away.
That looks like "busy work" to me

VOTE: StanleyPalmtree
yeah pretty much
Im finding myself turning around on Acohrs, the many people recounting his apparently strong play in his only previous game has me doubting my initial belief of the whole Inexperience excuse. That and his big accusation against sorian just read like complete bull, not feeling full scum vibes just yet, but it is certainly heading in that direction.
seems like the most suspicion/votes at this point are pointing toward Achors and Ty4on?

with the 'inexperienced' defense kinda shattered, i definitely dont like Achors play very much, only im stuck with the constant thought that it feels way to bad to be scum, like, the big push against sorian earlier was just impotent, seemingly desperate, instincts a yelling at me that it would be a just terrible play for a scum to make.
yeah, shit, 360 time, iv convinced myself i dont think Achors is scum.

looking back over more of Ty4ons posts ......
well i mean the arguments against him make sense, i just dont see it.

gah! duck it, this probably not gona go anywhere but

vote: CCS

painfully noncommittal play the entire day, and that whole rugby thing, has just left me with nothing but the bad vibes.
"I don't think acohrs is scum. Actually maybe he is scum..heading that way at least. lol jk super not scum for reasons". Stan manages to get all the way to completely clearing acohrs as scum while ALSO voting for CCS for taking part in a conversation that acohrs ALSO took place in. Boy that sure seems odd.

side note, Fran is getting vague bad feelings about me. now i dont usually like to make calls based on a players previous games, but with Fran this makes me almost certain that he's town.
Stan, could you elaborate on your meta point about Fran? I don't follow.
In the games we have played together fran ended up heavily suspecting me for very weird and illogical reasons, and he was town both times.
it would honestly worry me if he felt i was town.
"Oh silly Fran, of course you get weird feelings from me! I'm town like always! I pinky swear."

also Absolut and Magnumboy feel off, kinda like non-presences, however that could likely be down to me just not paying much attention to them earlier, will likely go back through the thread to get a better read of them.
Good call, got some criticism in on your teammate all while pushing it off for later AND blending him in with someone innocent. Though oddly I wonder if anyone else has done something similar..

2. Magnum/Absolut/Ynnek/Nin - all have posted enough to be active but just trying to keep head down and stay undetected, my guess is one of them is a scum PR that is a x number of shots killer that wants to keep their head down for a day or two so they can use their PR.

Oh, right.

Acohrs never interacted (= never voted / quoted / referenced the following persons): Stanley, Splinter and Pop. In addition to those three, both Ynnek and Absolut got one and only mention and that was Acohrs's scum read post.

Lets not forget this bit of info either. Sure seem to be a few familiar names in here, huh.

VOTE: StanleyPalmtree
 

cabot

Member
Lots of good stuff I haven't picked up on there, Natiko.

I'd like Stan and Bronx to offer a response to your analysis.
 

cabot

Member
Well sorry that took so long (not that much has happened in the meantime), I was playing games on the side and that led to it taking forever.

nin1000 - My second guess at a possible neutral. Just in general seems to enjoy posting fluff. Not sure scum would want this big of a spotlight on them so I'm going null for now.

For what it's worth, I don't think the bolded is a particularly helpful alignment tell for nin, at least based on past experience.

In Election Mafia, I had a 1-shot Public alignment check which I used on nin on day 1. The majority of players believed my claim pretty quickly and therefore trusted the Town return result that nin received through my ability.

That didn't stop nin from still posting a load of fluff and role playing posts as Obama. It got quite frustrating at times when he was the only one I could fully trust and he wasn't trying to solve the game like I had hoped.


Maybe it's different this time, but I feel it's relevant enough to bring up and consider.
 
Lots of good stuff I haven't picked up on there, Natiko.

I'd like Stan and Bronx to offer a response to your analysis.

oh like an actual response, not a joke?

alrighty then.

well props to Nat that nothing he has brought up here is a straight up lie, just a whole whole lot of twisting things to suit his narrative, one that requires many significant assumptions to be believed.
the only solid thing he had against me was my town reading of achors, which yeah, i was completely wrong about, but that shit happens.
seems like every other point requires you to believe that at least 1 of his own reads are just blatantly correct.
 

cabot

Member
oh like an actual response, not a joke?

alrighty then.

well props to Nat that nothing he has brought up here is a straight up lie, just a whole whole lot of twisting things to suit his narrative, one that requires many significant assumptions to be believed.
the only solid thing he had against me was my town reading of achors, which yeah, i was completely wrong about, but that shit happens.
seems like every other point requires you to believe that at least 1 of his own reads are just blatantly correct.

I mean if you're not playing with the idea that your reads are correct, then what are you doing?
 
I mean if you're not playing with the idea that your reads are correct, then what are you doing?

sure, but Natikos whole argument seems to leave zero room for doubt.

im not going to say not to listen to his argument, just keep in mind how much is fact and how much is just what Nat believes.
 

cabot

Member
my only real scum read on AB are these:

Well, given that the item is beneficial to town, I think we can agree that the person who gave it to Natiko is not scum; they will either be town or a town-aligned neutral. Occam's Razor to me says town.

So we have a town item giver. Why would the thief, then, be town? It would be a town thief stealing from (hopefully) town players, given items by another town player. That makes no sense, as it removes agency from the town item-giver.

The only way a town thief makes sense is if there are scum item-givers or scum players that start with items. Neither of which are likely scenarios given:

1. A scum item giver would not give a town player an item that is beneficial to them. Scum wants to kill town, not help them.
2. A town-thief would have to be extremely lucky to steal from a scum-item-starter. And given the only items I have seen (in Star Wars, granted) were one-shot, it would mean the town thief would have to steal a one-shot item from a scum player before the scum player used it.

So the thief is, at the very least, unlikely to be town-aligned give that there is a far, far greater chance that the item-giver is a town player.

While I think CCS is town, I too would sort of like the logic of the vote explained. Why Sophia?



Sorry, this confuses me a bit. How can you trust that Sorian is right?


Again, all I have to go on is Star Wars, but there were two types of items in Star Wars: Shields (1 shot bulletproof) and Blasters (1 shot kill command). The Shields were passive and presumably would have worked the night they were received. The Blasters required a command to be submitted, so I would guess if an item requires a command there would have been no time to issue the command. (Since commands tend to all be resolved at the end of the phase, rather than as received.)

While I am curious what the item is, I think we also have to consider if the item-giver has other types of items. And whether or not it is worth giving out details of items this early. Scum will get that information also, after all.

The second bolded point is in response to something I asked Natiko, but this is uh, a lot of mechanics speculation at a point in the game where we really don't have any real idea of how it works, and we won't know more until the phases progress. I felt this was too unnecessary and it was probably one of a handful of times AB has been really engaged in this game.


I will add, however, that I still lean town on AB for most of his other posts. Magnum going after him as well with vote analysis that I would describe is optimistic at best doesn't really make me scum read him further.


Now would scum Magnum stick to his guns and try to take AB down the second day in a row when it doesn't look to be receiving much clout currently?

A question I am pondering.
 

Natiko

Banned
I don't think I ever stated I think there can be no doubt about my reads. I mean math wise it's likely that not everyone I listed as leaning scum or scum actually is scum. Three of the four all had weird pivots on acohrs though and then when you look at references or similarities between you all it becomes even more curious. I admitted in the post that Splinter was the oddball out but IF scum had a vote on acohrs there's only so many candidates in my eyes.
 
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