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February 2010 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Gamasutra posted my comments on the NPD Group data released last week. The article is here:
Direct link to Gamasutra story about February 2010 NPD data.
Things of interest:
  • Why we might expect a return to growth (in a sense) in March
  • Detailed hardware breakdown for the month (see below)
  • Shifting software revenues

An image from the article:
hardware-detail-estimates-feb-2010.png


I'm super-busy today. Have no idea when I'll be back to fix things. Sorry. (Yes, there is a date error on last graph. I have submitted a replacement. Should be 2009-2010, not 2008-2009.)

As always, I'm up for corrections, comments, etc. Please don't take a lack of immediate response personally -- I may simply not be here. My overlordseditors will probably be watching the thread, so changes may happen without a direct response from me.

Thanks, as always, guys. I hope I was able to live up to y'all's high standards.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
2007: Oct Nov Dec
2008: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010: Jan
 
Interesting breakdown for the 360 models. I always thought the Elite model would've been around 70% of the whole 360 sales.

Also lol @ PSP Go.
 
manzo said:
Interesting breakdown for the 360 models. I always thought the Elite model would've been around 70% of the whole 360 sales.

Also lol @ PSP Go.
Click to expand...

I like the PSP as a platform, but man it's a shame to see the Go mishandled so badly. On the bright side though, I'm eagerly anticipating blowout clearance sales on them (like with the virtual boy back in the day) so I can stock up on those little collectors items and make a mint in a few years.

you heard it here first, people
 
Speaking of platform ratios, why isn't there a 120/250gb PS3 breakdown? Is the 120gb model being phased out?

Edit: holy shit I'm BLIND. Nevermind! :lol
 
Manmademan said:
I like the PSP as a platform, but man it's a shame to see the Go mishandled so badly. On the bright side though, I'm eagerly anticipating blowout clearance sales on them (like with the virtual boy back in the day) so I can stock up on those little collectors items and make a mint in a few years.

you heard it here first, people
Click to expand...

Interesting that you make the VB comparison; based on these numbers and the Japanese numbers, it's highly likely that the lifetime sales of the Go will be somewhere around those of the VB.
 
Holy shit, the Wii dropped 355k from last year? That means, combined with the price drop, Wii hardware alone accounts for almost $100 million of the revenue decrease. The Wii isn't even in the same industry as everything else.
 
Does the arcade/elite ratio have anything to do with the release of sequels for two of the biggest Single Player IPs on the 360 (Mass Effect 2 and Bioshock 2)?

The average hw price had always hovered around $270 for most of last year if I recall, now it's down to $250.

gamasutra said:
Furthermore, hardware revenues were further hit by lower average prices for each platform in 2010. Recall that every system, with the exception of the Nintendo DS, has seen a price cut of some sort in the past year.
Click to expand...

And the 360, unless you call an SKU shuffle a price drop.
 
They should really just bottom out the price on the Go and I'd buy it as a collector's item. It'd be cool to have especially since all my games right now are PSN anyway.
 
I love being reminded on a weekly basis how stupid my PSP Go purchase was.

Its a better music player since its smaller but I miss the in line remote.
 
I still firmly believe we're getting a PSP Phone this year after the Sony Ericsson president's comments. That said, why the hell is Sony letting the PSP die in the retail channel? I just don't understand it.

Great stuff as always, JVM. :D
 
chubigans said:
I still firmly believe we're getting a PSP Phone this year after the Sony Ericsson president's comments. That said, why the hell is Sony letting the PSP die in the retail channel? I just don't understand it.
Click to expand...
If the phone comes with new hw, it would mean phase out of one of the current SKUs - anyone wants to guess which one? :P

Anyway I still wonder if Go is mainly sold at base price though - there's been evidence around launch it was profitable for retailers as low as 180$ - if the thing is moving so slow, surely they would use that pricing freedom to get rid of it.
 
manzo said:
Interesting breakdown for the 360 models. I always thought the Elite model would've been around 70% of the whole 360 sales.
Click to expand...
The breakdown is always different month in, month out, depending on various promotions and giftcards going on.
 
The last page has some of the more fascinating insight (aside from the informative but expected "Guitar Hero/Rock Band are dead" segment).

Wii hardware sales are dropping YoY, while the tie ratio is dropping as well.

And despite selling 4 million new consoles in December, the Wii sold less software in February '10 than in February '09.

Meanwhile, the PS3 is rapidly increasing its software share month over month, despite trailing in hw sales.

We're approaching a situation that, in spite of install base sizes, the active game-buying community for all 3 consoles is nearing equilibrium in the US.

I'd speculate that this means that the Wii (and to a lesser extent, the 360) have peaked in terms of hardcore consumer interest, and are now being purchased primarily by casuals. Meanwhile, the PS3 at a relatively fresh $299 still has some momentum from multi-console owners and the last of the PS2 holdouts.
 
MetatronM said:
Man, I still can't believe they thought the Go was a good idea. Incredible.
Click to expand...

It is a good idea. They just fucked up virtually every aspect of it. Pricing, game availability, marketing, etc.
 
The PSP Go is priced all wrong. Should be cheaper. Especially if they want to curb piracy.

Plus theres still too many games missing from PSN for PSP Go to be a serious option for people who want to play older games on PSP.

Also think the PSP-4000 rumors may be hurting PSP overall sales as well. I for one am going to hold out as long as possible hoping for some news of a PSP-4000 because I do like the PSP Go's form factor and screen but I'd still rather have the UMD drive from the 3000. I'm going to buy a PSP one way or another when Peace Walker comes out, but it will not be the Go.
 
The important context here is that the retail industry, measured by the data provided by the NPD Group, changed dramatically between February and March 2009. According to NPD Group data for 2009, software sales dropped from 4.9 million units per week (on average) in February to 3.9 million units per week (on average) in March.
Advertisement

Moreover, average hardware sales dropped to 400,000 systems per week in March from over 580,000 units in February.

To put it as briefly as possible, sales at January and February of 2009 were significantly higher than they were in March.
Click to expand...

NPD updated their software with February's data last year. Everything saw a larger than expected increase in February 2009 and a larger than expected decrease in March 2009. YOY comparisons should finally be apples-to-apples starting in March. :)

Sho_Nuff82 said:
And despite selling 4 million new consoles in December, the Wii sold less software in February '10 than in February '09.
Click to expand...

It could've been blowing smoke, but Nintendo said they were experiencing shortages in software for some of their big first-party games. There were anecdotal reports that supported this. Just FYI.
 
Sho_Nuff82 said:
I'd speculate that this means that the Wii (and to a lesser extent, the 360) have peaked in terms of hardcore consumer interest, and are now being purchased primarily by casuals. Meanwhile, the PS3 at a relatively fresh $299 still has some momentum from multi-console owners and the last of the PS2 holdouts.
Click to expand...

I figure the "last of the PS2 holdouts" would also fall into the "casuals" group.

sinnergy said:
I am surprised X360 arcades sell that much..
Click to expand...

People buy them all the time. I've got a friend whose brother and dad both purchased 360 arcades this past week. The dad will never go online and therefore doesn't need the HDD, and the brother said he'd buy an HDD later if he felt the need. Both of them are going to be playing Golf and Forza. Another friend bought one for her son because they couldn't afford anything more and again, not going online. The Arcade's perfect in that scenario.

There's your market. Well, that and smart people buy new arcades when their old Xenons die and sell the refurbs as soon as they get them back from repair.
 
donny2112 said:
NPD updated their software with February's data last year. Everything saw a larger than expected increase in February 2009 and a larger than expected decrease in March 2009. YOY comparisons should finally be apples-to-apples starting in March. :)
Click to expand...
Not with all the software heavy hitters we have in this March.
 
dolemite said:
Not with all the software heavy hitters we have in this March.
Click to expand...

Apples-to-Apples in terms of the software being used to extrapolate the market. Prior month comparisons likely were affected to some degree by the fact that different processes were used to extrapolate each data set. :)
 
Dr. Zoidberg said:
...Well, that and smart people buy new arcades when their old Xenons die and sell the refurbs as soon as they get them back from repair.
Click to expand...
Indeed:D
Now eagerly awaiting for 250 GB to come out.
 
dolemite said:
Not with all the software heavy hitters we have in this March.
Click to expand...

Err, I don't think you understand what donny just said.

He said that NPD changed their software calculations as of last february. As a result, YOY comparisons are comparing sets of data generated by different methodologies. This particular discrepancy will disappear as of next month, where all YOY comparisons will be on the same tracking model.
 
I wonder what Nintendo's response will be to falling Wii hardware and software. I doubt they are going to sit on their hands. With strong DS sales why release a new model this year - makes more sense they would release an update for the Wii this year and DS2 next year.

Shurs said:
Gamasutra doesn't have copy editors?
Click to expand...

TheShining0013-1.png
 
Vagabundo said:
I wonder what Nintendo's response will be to falling Wii hardware and software. I doubt they are going to sit on their hands. With strong DS sales why release a new model this year - makes more sense they would release an update for the Wii this year and DS2 next year.
Click to expand...

Vitality Sensor. Period.
 
I wish you hat led with the Last page first JVM. The Rock Band/Guitar Hero declining software revenues story has been done to death.

The Wii's decrease in tie-ratio is much more interesting.
 
Vagabundo said:
I wonder what Nintendo's response will be to falling Wii hardware and software. I doubt they are going to sit on their hands. With strong DS sales why release a new model this year - makes more sense they would release an update for the Wii this year and DS2 next year.
Click to expand...
I'm guessing they are already responding with their killer line-up within a relatively small amount of time with Galaxy 2 etc. They probably have a good holiday line-up planned. It still is about the software, and it remains to be seen if and how much territory Natal and PS Move will get from Wii, so far we've only seen Sony's Wii copy efforts and I doubt they'll win over the Wii fanbase with that.
 
Vagabundo said:
I wonder what Nintendo's response will be to falling Wii hardware and software. I doubt they are going to sit on their hands. With strong DS sales why release a new model this year - makes more sense they would release an update for the Wii this year and DS2 next year.
Click to expand...
If you decide in February you need a new hardware by October, you probably end up with a PSP Go.
 
Those psp go numbers are pretty disappointing. Sony has done everything they can to make sure the console failed. Leaves a bitter taste in ones mouth.
 
Vinci said:
Vitality Sensor. Period.
Click to expand...

I'm boggled about the Vit sensor, it seems to be another Zapper. Handy, gimicky, but nothing earth shattering.

Neomoto said:
I'm guessing they are already responding with their killer line-up within a relatively small amount of time with Galaxy 2 etc. They probably have a good holiday line-up planned. It still is about the software, and it remains to be seen if and how much territory Natal and PS Move will get from Wii, so far we've only seen Sony's Wii copy efforts and I doubt they'll win over the Wii fanbase with that.
Click to expand...

Maybe they'll get another year with good lineup. But I dunno if even the MIGHTY Nintendo can keep the platform afloat on their own. 3rd parties have seriously left the ship. I was a strong Wii supporter; I thought 3rd parties would turn it around and start producing some true gems for the platform, but I've lots all faith and it's too late now.

I'm with you on the Wiimote clones. I don't think they will be wildly successful.
 
DeaconKnowledge said:
I wish you hat led with the Last page first JVM. The Rock Band/Guitar Hero declining software revenues story has been done to death.

The Wii's decrease in tie-ratio is much more interesting.
Click to expand...
Thanks, and I understand what you mean. I was trying to do something slightly different from the usual...

My idea was that you can't just look at music game sales and say "there, what's what changed" because that also happened in 2009. With tons of revenue going missing in Jan/Feb 2009, the industry still managed increases year-on-year. More losses this year in music sales, 50% larger current-gen userbase, yet a decline.

I'm partially on board with the modeling problem (i.e. how NPD estimates), but not convinced that's enough to explain this problem.
 
Thx as always, JVM!

dolemite said:
The breakdown is always different month in, month out, depending on various promotions and giftcards going on.
Click to expand...

Sure. But it still shows that the Arcade was a clever move by MSFT, lowering the entry price point. And make it easier to rebuy for RROD victims. And its not exactly killing their bottomline for peripheral sales. *

Edit:
* Which reminds me - JVM, do we have any new data on peripheral sales? Haven´t seen any in awhile.
 
Hammer24 said:
Thx as always, JVM!

<snip>

Edit:
* Which reminds me - JVM, do we have any new data on peripheral sales? Haven´t seen any in awhile.
Click to expand...
You're welcome. Also, the only data we have on peripherals is the total revenue. NPD stopped releasing the top 10 lists a while back.
 
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