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January 2010 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Gamasutra posted my comments on the NPD Group data released last week. While the data released was about January 2010, I had some information (top 5 charts per platform in 2009) that I also included for context here and there. The article is here:
Direct link to Gamasutra story about January 2010 NPD data.
I was not able to get as much information this month as I have previously, but I tried to do a decent job with what I had. Things of interest:
  • Looking at Sony becoming a one-platform (PS3) company. Some details there on PS2, PSP, revenue, top software in 2009.
  • Nintendo's software dominance in terms of their evergreen titles. Also an NDS top 5 for 2009 there.
  • A comparison of January 2010 to January 2008, since January 2009 was still part of the "crazy time" when the market was ridiculously hot.

An image from the article:
sony-jan-rev-estimated.png


As always, I'm up for corrections, comments, etc. Please don't take a lack of immediate response personally -- I may simply not be here. My overlordseditors will probably be watching the thread, so changes may happen without a direct response from me.

Thanks, as always, guys. I hope I was able to live up to y'all's high standards.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
2007: Oct Nov Dec
2008: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
 
M

Man God

Non-Canon Member
I like how you didn't include MK DS in the evergreen chart as it would have messed up the formatting! :lol
 
C

confuziz

Banned
I think that picture says everything we expected

Sony needs to sell lots and lots more of ps3's to make up for the abysmal psp and falling ps3 sales
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
it's pretty embarrassing that npd's situation is such that you have to cite an analyst to cover your ass about reporting sales figures for #14, and have to explain your logic for providing sales for #17.

i guess they're feeling the burn after some recent number leaks fake numbers that got posted and absolutely aren't real npd numbers only they're not going to bother to state which are wrong or how they're wrong or correct any of them and they spent more of the comment talking about how leaks are bad than thinly trying to pretend they weren't real numbers number leaks and don't want to cooperate at all with non-paying clients.

for all their complaining that zgzhartz is baloney, the less open they are with their information, the more people are going to cite zgzhartz. the worst possible scenario is that people who know full well that zgzhartz are baloney start relying on them for "ballpark" numbers.

i really think npd needs to reflect on the kinds of data that make their service worth buying (ASP data, sales for every single title, sales breakdowns by SKU in terms of collectors versus regular editions, accessories sales, multipliers and market size information, etc--i don't know if NPD provides sell-through estimations or not) versus the kinds of data that are of interest to press and enthusiasts but don't necessarily drive service subscription (say, top 20/30, top 10 per console numbers, ltd updates for major titles, etc)

i guess the short form of what i'm trying to say is that if npd provided top 30 per month, top 10 per console per month without numbers, and an annual top 100, they wouldn't lose a dime of subscription money. they would kneecap zgzhartz.
 
A

Archurro

Member
Great feature, I love the analysis that no other sites do. It's interesting how Sony is finally losing the PS2. I also love the great charts and graphs for people who don't have time to read the whole thing.
 
R

Road

Member
Thanks.

top-5-nds-2009.png


1. Pokemon Platinum = 2 million.
2. New Super Mario Bros.
3. Mario Kart DS
4. Mario & Luigi ~ 1.3 million
5. Scribblenauts = 845k

top-5-psp-2009.png


x. LittleBigPlanet > 160k

PSP put up a good fight.
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
One console future incoming. (For Sony, anyway.)

Would it be stirring a hornet's nest to query at where the PS2 fanbase ended up? Or wonder aloud how Madden was still able to sell on the PS2 but couldn't get a foothold on the graphically superior Wii?
 
Guy Legend

Guy Legend

Member
As the PS2 winds down, it will be interesting to see if they enact another price cut since they have been selling the hardware at a profit at $99

While they're at it, drop the price of the Go before it completely disappears into obscurity. I'm guessing it goes down to $200 before the summer.
 
C

Cosmonaut X

Member
Guy Legend said:
While they're at it, drop the price of the Go before it completely disappears into obscurity. I'm guessing it goes down to $200 before the summer.
Click to expand...

"Before"?

I'd echo Stump's comments - it's been incredibly disheartening seeing how much credence ioi's Amazing Imaginary Number Machine has been given by enthusiasts on message boards, and by people who should really know better.

NPD are doing themselves no favours withholding all data but the top ten (and the very occasional extra figure or two). It may well be their data to do with as they see fit, and they have every right to protect it and preserve its value to subscribers, but I can't honestly see the harm a slightly less restrictive picture of monthly sales in the US would cause - and as Stump notes, it would piss all over ioi's chips, something that is long, long overdue.
 
R

Road

Member
Stumpokapow said:
it's pretty embarrassing that npd's situation is such that you have to cite an analyst to cover your ass about reporting sales figures for #14, and have to explain your logic for providing sales for #17.

i guess they're feeling the burn after some recent number leaks fake numbers that got posted and absolutely aren't real npd numbers only they're not going to bother to state which are wrong or how they're wrong or correct any of them and they spent more of the comment talking about how leaks are bad than thinly trying to pretend they weren't real numbers number leaks and don't want to cooperate at all with non-paying clients.

for all their complaining that zgzhartz is baloney, the less open they are with their information, the more people are going to cite zgzhartz. the worst possible scenario is that people who know full well that zgzhartz are baloney start relying on them for "ballpark" numbers.

i really think npd needs to reflect on the kinds of data that make their service worth buying (ASP data, sales for every single title, sales breakdowns by SKU in terms of collectors versus regular editions, accessories sales, multipliers and market size information, etc--i don't know if NPD provides sell-through estimations or not) versus the kinds of data that are of interest to press and enthusiasts but don't necessarily drive service subscription (say, top 20/30, top 10 per console numbers, ltd updates for major titles, etc)

i guess the short form of what i'm trying to say is that if npd provided top 30 per month, top 10 per console per month without numbers, and an annual top 100, they wouldn't lose a dime of subscription money. they would kneecap zgzhartz.
Click to expand...
I think this image is very illustrative of NPD's M.O.:

2e5jleo.jpg

(Capcom's 2009 Annual Report)

Sorry for dragging this even more OT.
 
W

WaltJay

Member
akachan ningen said:
Lower the PS2 price to $74.99$59.99! Do it, Sony!
Click to expand...

Fixed. :D

PS2 system or a new PS3 game is an interesting value proposition.

It'll get there at some point; if these recent numbers don't push it along, I don't know what will!
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
Cosmonaut X said:
"Before"?

I'd echo Stump's comments - it's been incredibly disheartening seeing how much credence ioi's Amazing Imaginary Number Machine has been given by enthusiasts on message boards, and by people who should really know better.

NPD are doing themselves no favours withholding all data but the top ten (and the very occasional extra figure or two). It may well be their data to do with as they see fit, and they have every right to protect it and preserve its value to subscribers, but I can't honestly see the harm a slightly less restrictive picture of monthly sales in the US would cause - and as Stump notes, it would piss all over ioi's chips, something that is long, long overdue.
Click to expand...

Why would they want to do that?

I'm not understanding. I know Segata and Stump and GAF hate ioi and ********, but i'm not seeing why the NPD group would be interested in discrediting him. In fact, having ioi out there would serve to bolster NPDs validity as they can claim to be the only outlet with 100% accurate stone cold numbers; access to which can only be gotten by subscription. ******** makes NPD look better for being exclusive with numbers, not worse.
 
Baki

Baki

Member
Road said:
Thanks.

top-5-nds-2009.png


1. Pokemon Platinum = 2 million.
2. New Super Mario Bros.
3. Mario Kart DS
4. Mario & Luigi ~ 1.3 million
5. Scribblenauts = 845k

top-5-psp-2009.png


x. LittleBigPlanet > 160k

PSP put up a good fight.
Click to expand...

This goes to show. Established franchises still do well on the PSP. LCS is no.3 4 years after release. Frickin' insane!

This bodes well for MGS: Peace Walker.
 
Z

Zen

Banned
Road said:
Thanks.

top-5-nds-2009.png


1. Pokemon Platinum = 2 million.
2. New Super Mario Bros.
3. Mario Kart DS
4. Mario & Luigi ~ 1.3 million
5. Scribblenauts = 845k

top-5-psp-2009.png


x. LittleBigPlanet > 160k

PSP put up a good fight.
Click to expand...

Hey that's not actually that bad for LBP PSP when you factor in how well it seems to sell on PSN (it and God of War). Dissidia could be well over 300k by now. Although Sony really needs to give the PSP a shot in the arm with a heavy price drop, new promotion, and such; if for nothing else but to keep it relevant (and from dying out completely outside of Japan) for when they start to roll out the PSP2.
 
F

Fularu

Banned
Baki said:
This goes to show. Established franchises still do well on the PSP. LCS is no.3 4 years after release. Frickin' insane!

This bodes well for MGS: Peace Walker.
Click to expand...

No, this graph just shows that the PSP software sales are abysmally bad. This doesn't bode well for Peacewalker *at all*
 
J

jrricky

Banned
Road said:
Thanks.

top-5-nds-2009.png


1. Pokemon Platinum = 2 million.
2. New Super Mario Bros.
3. Mario Kart DS
4. Mario & Luigi ~ 1.3 million
5. Scribblenauts = 845k

top-5-psp-2009.png


x. LittleBigPlanet > 160k

PSP put up a good fight.
Click to expand...
Gooooooooooo Scribblenauts and Mario and Luigi. Jeremiah has got to be ecstatic.:D
 
D

dolemite

Member
Fularu said:
No, this graph just shows that the PSP software sales are abysmally bad. This doesn't bode well for Peacewalker *at all*
Click to expand...
Yeah, by the same token Chinatown Wars would be doing great, yet it's not. It looks like the PSP audience is pirating their software to the max.
 
B

bluemax

Banned
DeaconKnowledge said:
One console future incoming. (For Sony, anyway.)

Would it be stirring a hornet's nest to query at where the PS2 fanbase ended up? Or wonder aloud how Madden was still able to sell on the PS2 but couldn't get a foothold on the graphically superior Wii?
Click to expand...

Because Madden Wii is a bastard version of the game while the PS2 version is not?
 
D

Deku

Banned
dolemite said:
Yeah, by the same token Chinatown Wars would be doing great, yet it's not. It looks like the PSP audience is pirating their software to the max.
Click to expand...

are you sure its just the piracy?
 
B

botticus

Member
DeaconKnowledge said:
Why would they want to do that?

I'm not understanding. I know Segata and Stump and GAF hate ioi and ********, but i'm not seeing why the NPD group would be interested in discrediting him. In fact, having ioi out there would serve to bolster NPDs validity as they can claim to be the only outlet with 100% accurate stone cold numbers; access to which can only be gotten by subscription. ******** makes NPD look better for being exclusive with numbers, not worse.
Click to expand...
The people who need the full range of data NPD provides will continue to pay for NPD data. But the people who don't will never pay for NPD data, and will use whatever sources are available. Places like vgz will begin building credibility as they are quoted by consumers and media/analysts without NPD subscriptions (and who will probably never pay for NPD subscriptions), whether or not their numbers are imaginary.
 
S

Spiegel

Member
dolemite said:
Yeah, by the same token Chinatown Wars would be doing great, yet it's not. It looks like the PSP audience is pirating their software to the max.
Click to expand...

That's not a good example. Chinatown Wars has bombed on three different consoles/devices. People don't want top down GTA and surely they don't want to pay full price for a late port.

Not that this makes the psp software sales any good, but the truth is that Chinatown Wars at 30/40$ would have bombed on PSN/Live/Steam/...
 
M

Mandoric

Banned
DeaconKnowledge said:
Why would they want to do that?

I'm not understanding. I know Segata and Stump and GAF hate ioi and ********, but i'm not seeing why the NPD group would be interested in discrediting him. In fact, having ioi out there would serve to bolster NPDs validity as they can claim to be the only outlet with 100% accurate stone cold numbers; access to which can only be gotten by subscription. ******** makes NPD look better for being exclusive with numbers, not worse.
Click to expand...

Haven't we even seen press releases that consider site v's numbers to be "good enough"? While keeping things locked up tight secures their current market for now, it throws away any chance at expansion, and the more cred site v builds by being cited in the media the more likely retail will be to actually give them sales data. Which would be good for us, since their numbers would go from laughable to useful, but extremely poor for NPD.
 
K

Kintaro

Worships the porcelain goddess
Alcibiades said:
Nintendo has never charged $50 for Wiimotes, they've been $40 since launch.
Click to expand...

Weird. There's black, blue and pink Wiimotes for $54.99 now. I haven't seen a $40 white Wiimote since December. Yeah, they come with Wii Motion Plus attachments now, but I've had a bunch of people balk at the price since the price of a Wiimote/Nunchuk combo jumped from $60 to $75.
 
B

botticus

Member
HyperZone<3 said:
do we know how badly The Sky Crawlers, No More Heroes 2, and Tatsunoko vs. Capcom bombed, or should I be pleasently surprised?
Click to expand...
You don't want to, nor will we ever know on the first. I think the latter two have been reported roughly as <30k and <50k respectively.

Kintaro said:
Weird. There's black, blue and pink Wiimotes for $54.99 now. I haven't seen a $40 white Wiimote since December. Yeah, they come with Wii Motion Plus attachments now, but I've had a bunch of people balk at the price since the price of a Wiimote/Nunchuk combo jumped from $60 to $75.
Click to expand...
GameStop is charging $5 extra for the new colored remotes with MotionPlus. They should be $50 (a $10 savings on the $40 remote + $20 MotionPlus).
 
A

AranhaHunter

Banned
Road said:
x. LittleBigPlanet > 160k

PSP put up a good fight.
Click to expand...

Was that leaked somewhere?

WaltJay said:
Fixed. :D

PS2 system or a new PS3 game is an interesting value proposition.

It'll get there at some point; if these recent numbers don't push it along, I don't know what will!
Click to expand...

$59.99? How much do you think it cost Sony to produce a PS2? I say about $60 bucks, no way in hell they wanna just break even on the system at this point, I think they'll probably drop the price to $70-80 and let it die in the US and concentrate on selling them on developing countries.

I also think they'll drop the PSP price this year, the PS2 price dropped last year IIRC but the PSP price hasn't dropped in 3 years and I can't see the PSP or the PSP GO costing Sony more than $120 to make, more than likely it only cost them about U$100 to make each machine.

EDIT: Corrected an error
 
T

Takao

Banned
Seems Poly's GT PSP numbers were shipments, or either the 3000 bundles sold loads, since they said GT PSP did 650k in North America.
 
S

Sipowicz

Banned
the greatest tragedy in gaming right now is the PSP

it's a million times better than any of the consoles, yet it doesn't sell and neither does its software
 
V

Version 3.0

Member
Sipowicz said:
the greatest tragedy in gaming right now is the PSP

it's a million times better than any of the consoles, yet it doesn't sell and neither does its software
Click to expand...

It's a turd. Of course, that has little to do with it selling or not, but it's useless. Portables should distinguish themselves from home consoles with appropriate games, not watered-down versions that should've been on TV-based machines.
 
M

Mandoric

Banned
You know, I'm also honestly amazed that none of the magazines have gotten into the act. I can't see GameInformer having good relations with a broad base of retailers for obvious reasons, but having to chat up sources and publish good original research would be nice, effective babby's first journalism to ease one or another of the rags into post-Internet relevance. And the official mags could even refine their data based on 100% accurate shipment info. :lol
 
R

RurouniZel

Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
BriareosGAF said:
The other cute thing about that graphic is the top 5 ratings. E,E,E,E,E10+ vs. T,M,E,M,T.
Click to expand...

It's not that surprising really. Limiting one's potential audience = limiting one's potential sales.

It's mathematics!
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
bluemax said:
Because Madden Wii is a bastard version of the game while the PS2 version is not?
Click to expand...

That's what I was alluding to. Thanks!

Mandoric said:
Haven't we even seen press releases that consider site v's numbers to be "good enough"? While keeping things locked up tight secures their current market for now, it throws away any chance at expansion, and the more cred site v builds by being cited in the media the more likely retail will be to actually give them sales data. Which would be good for us, since their numbers would go from laughable to useful, but extremely poor for NPD.
Click to expand...

That's the thing though. NPD seems content to engage in backdoor deals with journalists to provide accurate numbers, which does two things; reduces VG chattaz reach, and establishes NPD as the go to source while still managing to shut out forum dwellers who would freely distribute info.

VGC existing in and of itself isn't encroaching on NPD to any great degree. It's their manifestation instead of NPD that's the problem. Frankly, I would think that if GAF wanted more access to numbers, they would encourage that site as a competitor, which would invariably force NPDs hand. Understand, I realize why we don't (a reliable trickle is better than an unreliable flood) however as the situation stands now all the cards are in the NPD Group's hands.
 
B

BriareosGAF

Member
RurouniZel said:
It's not that surprising really. Limiting one's potential audience = limiting one's potential sales.

It's mathematics!
Click to expand...

DRINKY.JPG


The plan can not fail! Seriously, though, the PSP's lifecycle has been the weirdest damn thing. Even late last year it was still selling tons of hardware and moving no software in the US; sure piracy is an issue but the scale would have to be staggering to sustain that.
 
Baki

Baki

Member
BriareosGAF said:
DRINKY.JPG


The plan can not fail! Seriously, though, the PSP's lifecycle has been the weirdest damn thing. Even late last year it was still selling tons of hardware and moving no software in the US; sure piracy is an issue but the scale would have to be staggering to sustain that.
Click to expand...

People forget the used market. Its absolutely massive for portable devices, especially the PSP.
 
Baki

Baki

Member
Vinci said:
DS software still seems to sell pretty well.
Click to expand...

DS has double the install base and way more of an influx of new buyers. :D And even then, for its userbase the DS still has pretty poor software sales.
 
Z

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
DeaconKnowledge said:
Would it be stirring a hornet's nest to query at where the PS2 fanbase ended up?
Click to expand...

The PS2 "fanbase" isn't one singular entity that moves en masse like sheep. If I had to make a guess, they've basically split up in almost equal parts. Young kids moved to the Wii. Enthusiasts seemed equally split between 360 and PS3 (while nearly every XBOX fan moved to 360). Low-income players still play their PS2 and live off of the bargain bins at GameStop.
 
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