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[Version 3.0]

He has a much right to an opinion as anyone. The fact that there are as many replies on this thread shows how fanboy everyone is. If you don't like what he has to say, don't read or watch his stuff.

Let's not have a double standard here. People make crazy predictions in sales threads, and they get laughed at, rebutted, and eventually proven wrong. There's nothing wrong with the same thing happening to Pachter. It's even more valid, because he should know better. Yeah, it's a whole thread instead of just a page or two, but he's a celebrity (I guess).

 

[Aquamarine]

I get that but his last tweet wasn't a prediction. It was targeted and deliberate. He wants a reaction. Why bring this type of hostility to a simple conversation.

I'm guessing that Pachter is amused by the fact that so many people seem offended for something he spends so little time coming up with.

If you send a quick prediction to clients, and then people all around the Internet get offended by it when it leaks, wouldn't you be a little bit cheeky as well?

He doesn't have to justify anything...the predictions are NOT meant to be shared to the public.

 

[3rdamention]

He gives the predictions to his clients. They're not intended for the general public, and they're certainly not meant to "provoke an entire fanbase."

They're quick, cursory predictions made on a whim with a VERY small sampling of the market.

News sites pay for the predictions and then broadcast them as a news article...like they actually mean something. But that was never their intent.





So what? It's not set in stone. Pachter didn't spend a lot of time coming up with the predictions...so he doesn't really care if they're right or wrong.

Pachter doesn't bet his integrity as an Equity Research Analyst on the validity of these numbers. He throws the numbers out there to give clients a general feel how the market might perform. Nothing is definitive on the matter.

Now if you were to ask him about his Buy / Sell prediction for Nintendo stock, he will give you a much more reasoned and thoughtful approach...because that's his REAL job. This isn't his job. It's a fun anecdote.

I just find it funny after the day he gives his projections to investors, he is already backtracking that he could be wrong.

How are his investors going to feel if he is wrong in his prediction that you said he spent no time really coming up with?


I honestly think Pachter completely forgot about the Destiny Console and exclusive marketing....He never mentioned it, it's been a thing since E3, yet he quotes the Microsoft free game deal that popped out of nowhere, for one week, with little to no advertising as the difference......

 

[omonimo]

who pays this dude?

Seriously. People can't find a job but him continue to gain money spit no sense.

 

[crazygambit]

If Microsoft does outsell Sony it is bad for both:

Microsoft - the realization that the only way to outsell the PS4 is to basically give away games with the console. Is this something they can keep doing for perpetuity.

Sony - was the marketing investment in Destiny worth it if their competitor can just bundle games, or just offer a free game for a week, and out-sell them.

Under your premise, imagine how much worse for MS it would be if they didn't win. Not even giving games away can help them overtake the PS4, so basically nothing they do can help them.

 

[FonkyByNature]

I would be very surprised if Sony doesn't sell the most in September. If it does happen then Sony failed big time because they put so much money in promoting Destiny and the bundle... but again, i would be very surprised, how did Patcher came with this prediction since he's supposed to be a professional in his field ? If he's wrong, again, i'm never taking anything he says seriously.

But you know what, i would really like the Xbox One to be the best seller for September because it'll force Sony to act faster and competition is always a good thing for us, the people who buy the games and consoles.

 

[Aquamarine]

I just find it funny after the day he gives his projections to investors, he is already backtracking that he could be wrong.

How are his investors going to feel if he is wrong in his prediction that you said he spent no time really coming up with?


I honestly think Pachter completely forgot about the Destiny Console and exclusive marketing....He never mentioned it, it's been a thing since E3, yet he quotes the Microsoft free game deal that popped out of nowhere, for one week, with little to no advertising as the difference......

Investors / client subscribe to Wedbush Equity Research (and listen to Mr. Pachter) for Buy / Sell analyses of companies.

The NPD Predictions stuff he does is a fun extra. Nobody actually makes financial decisions based off of it...it's just intended to give clients / investors a little more awareness of the video game market.

 

[Stardust_Comet]

Aquamarine, is Pachter actually getting paid for this "prediction" he made then? Just made me thought since you mentioned he said this to his clients.

And here I was thinking it was just some off-thing on the side he was doing for fun.

 

[>-Baron-Spamedi-<]

As I consumer I feel that the competition that is occurring due to MS being battered in sales by Sony is beneficial but not greatly. It might push the two to produce improvements to some features I guess, but I doubt it will be anything too dramatic.
I already made my choice at the start of the gen. Microsoft got sooooo many things wrong I went with Sony, who comparatively ticked the boxes in the main things I cared about. So now that's done. The competition may be good for new consumers in terms of price cuts and deals but to me it's largely irrelevant now.
It's the competition between the software developers that matters to me now.

I don't see MCC and particularly SO being the big draw many are suggesting. Maybe my views are coloured too strongly by the fact that I thought Halo was dull and have no interest in it. My friends have all switched from Xbox 360 to PS4 too and I haven't heard anyone suggesting they regret it or that they want an Xbox One too. None of the PS3 owners I know want to buy an Xbox One and most are now starting to look for deals to get PS4 since the release of Destiny.
The only person I know who got an Xbox One from a 360 did it because a few people on his friends list had done.
All anecdotal I know, but at least in my corner of the UK I just don't see where MS can currently get the momentum from to claw it back.
So I think Pachter will turn out to be wrong, I can't see MS winning another month this year even in NA unless MS can pull out some big surprises.

 

[AstroNut325]

In the year 2014 we should have had the sales numbers by the third day after the month end. This is preposterous.

 

[Aquamarine]

Aquamarine, is Pachter actually getting paid for this "prediction" he made then? Just made me thought since you mentioned he said this to his clients.

And here I was thinking it was just some off-thing on the side he was doing for fun.

Clients receive it as part of a subscription. So most people who receive it...don't pay anything extra.

But yes, any client note that Pachter puts out like this has a price. I think it would be around $25 if you were to buy it separately.

And like I said, every other Pachter prediction is sound except for the wonky PS4 prediction. His XBO / Wii U / 3DS / Vita / PS3 / 360 numbers are perfectly fine.

 

[SlugSh0t]

Strange, everyone other source is predicting a ps4 win..

 

[3rdamention]

Investors / client subscribe to Wedbush Equity Research (and listen to Mr. Pachter) for Buy / Sell analyses of companies.

The NPD Predictions stuff he does is a fun extra. Nobody actually makes financial decisions based off of it...it's just intended to give clients / investors a little more awareness of the video game market.

I don't think his fanboy tweets were for clients and investors, who is he working for with those tweets?

 

[Version 3.0]

I'm guessing that Pachter is amused by the fact that so many people seem offended for something he spends so little time coming up with.

If you send a quick prediction to clients, and then people all around the Internet get offended by it when it leaks, wouldn't you be a little bit cheeky as well?

He doesn't have to justify anything...the predictions are NOT meant to be shared to the public.

This doesn't make sense to me. If this is not a professional prediction, but a nonchalant, off-the-cuff one, then why isn't it meant for the public? If it's for his clients, shouldn't it have more work behind it? Who is it for?

 

[Aquamarine]

I don't think his fanboy tweets were for clients and investors, who is he working for with those tweets?

See this:

I'm guessing that Pachter is amused by the fact that so many people seem offended for something he spends so little time coming up with.

If you send a quick prediction to clients, and then people all around the Internet get offended by it when it leaks, wouldn't you be a little bit cheeky as well?

He doesn't have to justify anything...the predictions are NOT meant to be shared to the public.

 

[Stardust_Comet]

Clients receive it as part of a subscription. So most people who receive it...don't pay anything extra.

But yes, any client note that Pachter puts out like this has a price. I think it would be around $25 if you were to buy it separately.

And like I said, every other Pachter prediction is sound except for the wonky PS4 prediction. His XBO / Wii U / 3DS / Vita / PS3 / 360 numbers are perfectly fine.

Okay, thanks for the information.

Would it be safe to assume that someone asked for this specific prediction from him on a whim? Because this doesn't sound like his area of expertise really. It just really feels like a side thing to me and I can't imagine he studied much about the sales of both game consoles before making this guess.

 

[3rdamention]

See this:

Thanks brother, the fanboy tweets were probably more personal then, not part of his job lol...

 

[theprodigy]

I thought swiftdeath was the gaf consensus.

 

[Duxxy3]

Most months, threads NEVER get made about Pachter's predictions because they're usually pretty reasonable.

This one is way out of left-field. Usually it's more in line with what GAFfers in the Prediction Thread conclude.

Usually when he does his prediction they are at least in the right order, even if the numbers aren't correct.

August he wasn't off by much on the two next gen twins, and he had the order correct. So that predictions at least aligned with reality.

The September prediction not only has one of the smallest gaps of any prediction, but the order of consoles is flipped from every other prediction.

 

[Aquamarine]

Okay, thanks for the information.

Would it be safe to assume that someone asked for this specific prediction from him on a whim? Because this doesn't sound like his area of expertise really. It just really feels like a side thing to me and I can't imagine he studied much about the sales of both games before making this guess.

Pachter has been making predictions every month to clients since at least 2004. It's an institution at this point...he gets a real kick out of it.

I don't think sales predictions is Pachter's area of expertise either. He's much better at Buy / Sell analyses (aka. the reason why clients pay attention to him).

This doesn't make sense to me. If this is not a professional prediction, but a nonchalant, off-the-cuff one, then why isn't it meant for the public? If it's for his clients, shouldn't it have more work behind it? Who is it for?

Because Pachter makes LOTS of notes to clients about the state of the video game industry.

He gives notes to investors at least 3-4 times a month SPECIFICALLY about the USA video game retail market.

So this monthly predictions note is a quick update to give clients a general feel before NPD releases.

It's one of many, so it's okay if it's made quickly and intuitively.

 

[dose]

Why? He has a right to make predictions in the sales thread just like any other user.

I think he's talking more about people making new threads on his stupid predictions, which I agree should stop.

 

[Krilekk]

Usually when he does his prediction they are at least in the right order, even if the numbers aren't correct.

August he wasn't off by much on the two next gen twins, and he had the order correct. So that predictions at least aligned with reality.

The September prediction not only has one of the smallest gaps of any prediction, but the order of consoles is flipped from every other prediction.

It's not like he makes these things up. If he makes a prediction it's based on talks with Gamestop, Microsoft, Sony, other major players.

 

[driver116]

Banning Pachter threads? Give me a break. They're fun and entertaining.

Ban a prediction? So everybody in the prediction thread needs to be banned too lol

Please check your quotes, I was interpreting Red Chocobo post.

 

[Aquamarine]

It's not like he makes these things up. If he makes a prediction it's based on talks with Gamestop, Microsoft, Sony, other major players.

No.

Pachter calls up individual managers at stores like Best Buy and GameStop and finds out how consoles / games sold at *their particular* stores.

He then mixes intuition + NPD precedent + a TINY amount of anecdotal information...to draft a predictions note to clients. He gets this done very quickly because he is exceptionally busy and covers a lot of companies, so he doesn't put much time into it.

He does indeed "make these things up." He does NOT talk with ANY "major players." An intelligent GAFfer makes a more informed prediction.

 

[3rdamention]

Clients receive it as part of a subscription. So most people who receive it...don't pay anything extra.

But yes, any client note that Pachter puts out like this has a price. I think it would be around $25 if you were to buy it separately.

And like I said, every other Pachter prediction is sound except for the wonky PS4 prediction. His XBO / Wii U / 3DS / Vita / PS3 / 360 numbers are perfectly fine.

I'm still thinking that he completely forgot about the Destiny bundle this month. When NPD results are leaked, I bet the Destiny bundle will be the difference between NPD and his predictions...

He never mentioned that bundle, it had been presold since the Summer, and I think he spaces it, unless Destiny bundle sales are very underwhelming....


Or on Thursday, Pachter says "I never mentioned the Destiny Bundle, I was talking about Standard SKUs, sure PS4 wins September if you count that."

 

[TheSlySoul]

Or on Thursday, Pachter says "I never mentioned the Destiny Bundle, I was talking about Standard SKUs, sure PS4 wins September if you count that."

That would be such a cop-out, but I could see him doing it.

 

[Stardust_Comet]

Pachter has been making predictions every month to clients since at least 2004. It's an institution at this point...he gets a real kick out of it.

I don't think sales predictions is Pachter's area of expertise either. He's much better at Buy / Sell analyses (aka. the reason why clients pay attention to him).



Because Pachter makes LOTS of notes to clients about the state of the video game industry.

He gives notes to investors at least 3-4 times a month SPECIFICALLY about the USA retail market.

So this monthly predictions note is a quick update to give clients a general feel of the monthly video game market before NPD releases.

It's one of many, so it's okay if it's made quickly and intuitively.

Thanks for the information! That really does help explain where this prediction is coming from.

 

[SeventhSon]

No.

Pachter calls up individual managers at stores like Best Buy and GameStop and finds out how consoles / games sold at *their particular* stores.

He then mixes intuition + NPD precedent + a TINY amount of anecdotal information...to draft a predictions note to clients. He gets this done very quickly because he is exceptionally busy and covers a lot of companies, so he doesn't put much time into it.

He does indeed "make these things up." He does NOT talk with ANY "major players." An intelligent GAFfer makes a more informed prediction.

Isn't that exactly what vg chartz does?

 

[Digital-Hero]

Or on Thursday, Pachter says "I never mentioned the Destiny Bundle, I was talking about Standard SKUs, sure PS4 wins September if you count that."

The funny part is you can still find a ton of those bundles on store shelves. I see them at Target and Fred Meyer (local dept store) all the time.

 

[bud23]

So a re mastered GTA5 that will be on both systems will change things?

Yes, the exclusive GTA V PS4 bundle certainly will.

on the hardware side, Sony's PS3 finally managed to break Microsoft's long-running Xbox 360 streak. "PS3 was the top selling console this month, breaking the 32-month streak of the Xbox 360 leading console hardware sales from January 2011 to August 2013," Callahan said, adding that PS3 was given a lift by the GTA V 500GB PS3 bundle, "demonstrating how Grand Theft Auto V can shake things up in hardware as well as software.&#8221;

 

[Aquamarine]

Isn't that exactly what vg chartz does?

Yep. And it's what GAFfers do in the NPD Predictions thread (where Pachter's predictions were posted long before this thread was made).

 

[3rdamention]

The funny part is you can still find a ton of those bundles on store shelves. I see them at Target and Fred Meyer (local dept store) all the time.

I don't think anyone had argued they are super rare or limited, just many believe they sold really well....

 

[Stardust_Comet]

Or on Thursday, Pachter says "I never mentioned the Destiny Bundle, I was talking about Standard SKUs, sure PS4 wins September if you count that."

If he does this, then he is so trolling and I will laugh.

 

[SeventhSon]

Yep. And it's what GAFfers do in the NPD Predictions thread (where Pachter's predictions were posted long before this thread was made).

So that means either vg chartz is legit, or Pachter is a giant turkey.

 

[Gestault]

Isn't that exactly what vg chartz does?

Estimates are valued for their methodology, not for every specific prediction. If he has happy clients, that means he does fine work. He's not selling precision numbers, but insight into trends and market reactions.

 

[Aquamarine]

So that means either vg chartz is legit, or Pachter is a giant turkey.

What it means is that we shouldn't have a thread discussing it, just like we don't have threads discussing Chartzzz numberz.

 

[Omakone]

Maybe he is baseing his numbers on counting only the standard PS4. He must have forgotten the white Destiny bundle if he thinks PS4 only sold 250,000 units in September.

Amazon shows the standard PS4 as #9, the Destiny bundle as #21 and the Xbox One as #39, but I am sure that the Xbox One outsold the PS4

How does Pachter still get paid to analyse the video game industry.

Maybe this bit of nonsense will be the final nail in his coffin.

 

[SeventhSon]

What it means is that we shouldn't have a thread discussing it, just like we don't have threads discussing Chartzzz numberz.

So,

 

[Digital-Hero]

I don't think anyone had argued they are super rare or limited, just many believe they sold really well....

Not saying anyone argued anything. My point is that if you believe they sold well, there is no denying the possibility that they sold poorly too. I was just using my observation from a consumer standpoint. It will be interesting to see what actually happened.

 

[PistolGrip]

Old Pachter is back baby!! He used to make bold predictions like this all the time and always get it wrong. After so many GAF spankings he stopped and didn't deviate too much from GAF numbers but now he is back! Let the "analyst" humiliation begin!!

EDIT: Oh wait this was in private to clients... I guess he is not back

 

[N.Domixis]

Yes, the exclusive GTA V PS4 bundle certainly will.

Will there even be a bundle? We haven't heard anything.

 

[Biker19]

I don't care, I'm just pointing out a rather continuous pattern in Neogaf at the moment. People calling Neogaf a hivemind isn't a new concept and in some cases it can be entirely true. It just shows how important this forum is to some gamers.

Sony is quiet because they are literally asleep at the wheel, they've even come out and basically said "we don't know why we are successful". It shows, their game library won't be in full swing until early 2016.

Yes, all those games out by early 2016.

You can't be serious, right? These posts are comedy gold.

Amazing how you alter the past just to make it fit your opinion.
- PS3 (fat) always sold better outside of 360s strongholds (mainland EU, Japan, etc.)
- 360 had a year headstart with great price, brilliant games library, superb online and still sold rather mediocre (supply constrains) and still couldnt beat PS3 on LTD sales worldwide.
- Playstation as a brand is still a force. People are associate gaming with it.
- Xbox brand and Microsoft behind it make people cautious, especially outside of NA. People think of Microsoft and NSA and not about gaming when they hear "xbox"
- Don't forget the RROD dilemma, and the loss of consumer trust in Microsoft
- Online behind a paywall with no real value for the consumer
- 360 was very western male focused, something PS3 made better
- The shift began with a reasonable price for the PS3 and great exclusive and JP games and the EU and JP market were a fallback for Sony
- Microsoft basically stopped supporting 360 after 4 years and were purely Halo/Forza oriented, while Sony gathered many new exclusive IPs in the second half of PS3 lifetime.
- 360 couldn't win much marketshare in keymarkets where its competition was strong - results to witness with the poor xbone performance
- Headstarts mean everything if done right. PS4 was supply contrained but Sony was able to deliver 1 million systems a month and sold them through. Demand is still high and will continue, because the system lives through its hype, word of mouth and positive PR

Hopefully, people will get this.

 

[3rdamention]

Not saying anyone argued anything. I believe if you can say they sold well, there is no denying the possibility that they sold poorly too. It will be interesting to see what actually happened.

Yes, I agree with you.....But saying you see them on the shelves isn't any evidence of sales either way...I have never NOT seen a Destiny bundle on my best buy shelves. They are always stocked.....that doesn't mean anything related to its success...


We will see how it did on Thursday, and whether it was a "success" well depend on our interpretations of "success."

 

[Handy Fake]

 

[Xando]

Will there even be a bundle? We haven't heard anything.

Several Amazon EU sites have a PS4 + GTA bundle listed.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

No.

Pachter calls up individual managers at stores like Best Buy and GameStop and finds out how consoles / games sold at *their particular* stores.

He then mixes intuition + NPD precedent + a TINY amount of anecdotal information...to draft a predictions note to clients. He gets this done very quickly because he is exceptionally busy and covers a lot of companies, so he doesn't put much time into it.

He does indeed "make these things up." He does NOT talk with ANY "major players." An intelligent GAFfer makes a more informed prediction.

I dunno why you're speaking in such absolutes ("He does NOT talk with ANY major players"). You don't know any of these things for a fact. You can't make a statement like that.

 

[Aquamarine]

I dunno why you're speaking in such absolutes ("He does NOT talk with ANY major players"). You don't know any of these things for a fact. You can't make a statement like that.

Yes I can. I'm a client of Wedbush Equity Research, I receive his prediction notes every month, and in those full notes to clients Pachter specifically states his methodology for these predictions.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

Yes I can. I'm a client of Wedbush Equity Research, I receive his prediction notes every month, and in those full notes to clients Pachter specifically states his methodology for these predictions.

Cool, but you don't know if he talks to major players in his cell phone contact list or whatever.

 

[Cyborg]

When are the NPD numbers in? So we can see if Pachter is right?

 

[alexandros]

Yes I can. I'm a client of Wedbush Equity Research, I receive his prediction notes every month, and in those full notes to clients Pachter specifically states his methodology for these predictions.

You can't possibly believe that Pachter would reveal all his information sources and tricks to everyone that subscribes to Wedbush.