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Hillary Clinton Is Getting Surprisingly Little Extra Lift From Blacks and Hispanics
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Why you hanging with Hoteps?
pizzaparty
Member
But I thought Hillary was just like my abuelita.
Mononoaware
Banned
I have no love for Clinton to be honest...but I look at her as the lesser of two evils. I swear, if Trump gets elected, when I go to Japan in January, I'm going to request asylum to get away from a fascist regime.
Lord Frieza
Member
I swear, I just wonder if I'm in a different world sometimes when I see people legitimately worried about Clinton at the debates. Have so few people actually seen her debate someone 1-on-1? Did we also not see Trump's behavior at the debates? I just really don't understand, it's like I'm looking at a totally different reality than most people.
Manmademan
Member
Nope, he's correct. Black voters at every income level, every educational level, and both genders vote in higher rates than whites, asians, and hispanics in presidential elections. It's been higher in 2008 and 2012 (likely due to obama), but it's always been fairly high and some of those gaps are absolutely massive.
Black turnout overall only increased by about 5% over 2004
(and Kerry was terrible and running against an incumbent during wartime) but black voters with high school degrees show up to the polls nearly 15% more than white voters with high school degrees.
Midterms are lower, but we're not in a midterm election, are we? Urban voters vote less in midterms across the board, and that's where minorities tend to live. Lots of reasons for that, none of which are relevant to the thread.
Graphic is from here.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ackage-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
entremet
Member
Nope, he's correct. Black voters at every income level, every educational level, and both genders vote in higher rates than whites, asians, and hispanics.
Midterms are lower, but we're not in a midterm election, are we? Urban voters in general vote less in general, and that's where minorities tend to live. Lots of reasons for that, none of which are relevant to the thread.
Graphic is from here.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ackage-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
Good to know. Thanks for the insight.
So Hillary is doing worse among blacks and Hispanics than Obama, but Trump is doing worse among blacks, Hispanics AND college-educated whites (particularly white women) than Romney. So given that, given that Hillary's margin over Trump's is comparable to Obama's over Romney's, and given that Obama did actually beat Romney... where is the doom and gloom here?
rokkerkory
Member
Lets gooo my minority bros n girls!!
entremet
Member
The article was never about winning or losing the GE.
The focus was that the huge demographic shift between the candidates isn't translating into the more obvious general polling advantage.
The national effect is less pronounced than predicted.
Aaronology
Member
Who predicted Hillary Clinton to be doing better with blacks than Barack Obama?
Team Alucard
Banned
Trump is pulling Reagan numbers with non-college educated whites, which is negating much of her advantage in other demographics.
I think people see what they want to see. Most people chicken littling right now were absolutely ghost during the last like 8 weeks where Trumps numbers were rock bottom lows. Only to resurface as soon as he rises a LITTLE bit and cry about how the sky is falling.
It's not. This doesn't even need to be taken seriously. Trump is not doing well with black people in any noteworthy way.
Please stop embarrassing us with that awful accusation.
Type in black trump supporters in YouTube, dude.
It's a thing.
https://youtu.be/r9hXx6_Fzgs
entremet
Member
That's not what the writer is saying.
They're saying that Clinton's advantage with minorities and Trump's obvious disadvantage, along with demographics trends is not producing a sizable advantage overall in the national polling among all voters.
Ugh...
Aaronology
Member
There are over 40 million black people in America. You're going to have to do better than youtube links showing a few fools.
hipsterpants
Member
People are legitimately terrified of a Trump presidency. I think the worrying is getting tiring to read, though I understand it.
People are convinced that no matter what happens the media will declare Trump to be the winner because of lowered expectations. I think it's far more likely Trump says something incredibly stupid/offensive and gets repeatedly baited by Hillary. It'll be a treat to see how he reacts when confronted with his own bullshit by Hillary herself.
Da best scholarly source
Tarkus
Member
Have you considered Gary Johnson?
Nothing terrifying about it. He isn't going to win.
Lord Frieza
Member
Well, yeah, it's a thing, no doubt. A single thing.
Aaronology
Member
It isn't? The author specifically slams Hillary for not surpassing Barack Obama's support among blacks. How else should I interpret that?
...but your own thread title implies her support among minorities is somehow lacking, when in fact it's on par with Obama's. The article itself points this out several times.
Sorry, I am still a little confused by this entire thread and this story. And this isn't necessarily your fault; I think it was just poorly written a piece. But at least Dpad is providing some entertainment with his insistence Trump has garnered a sizeable coalition of black voters.
wesleyshark
Banned
Yes because a handful of YouTubers is representative of the entire black populous in America. /s
the fact that you're so confident in saying that just reinforces it being terrified.
Manmademan
Member
The writer is ignoring a very large elephant in the room here though. And I know nate cohn knows better, but sometimes these things are written to draw clicks and make the race seem closer than it is. Fivethirtyeight was guilty of this particular bit of stupidity a LOT during the primaries.
The big elephant in the room is this. Nate is relying on likely voter polling to tell us the strength of hillary's support among minorities. How did this work out in 2012?
In 2012 LV polling had Obama leading Romney by less than a point, an aggregate of .7%. He won by 3.9%, a margin about 5 times larger than predicted- and almost all of that was due to minority turnout.
Minority Turnout Determined the 2012 Election
If we were using election day final polling to make statements about Obama's minority support, it would be all gloom and doom articles about how the minority support of 08 had collapsed and was never coming back.
From what I can see the 2016 LV screens aren't all that different from the assumptions made in 2012 (which is very stupid, considering how much minorities hate donald trump) and almost nobody is polling in Spanish which is critical when determining what Latino support actually is.
entremet
Member
This is how I read it. From the OP.
"The conventional wisdom holds that sweeping demographic shifts propelled Barack Obama to the presidency.
So here’s a simple question: Why haven’t these demographics swept Hillary Clinton to a big polling lead and a smooth glide to victory? Donald J. Trump, after all, has alienated just about every growing demographic group and every category that helped push Mr. Obama to victory.
The biggest reason is that demographic change was an overrated contribution to Mr. Obama’s victory, and it will help Mrs. Clinton only at the margins this year. Analysts have conflated all of the effect of higher turnout and percentage of support among nonwhite voters with demographic shifts. In truth, the turnout and support were far more powerful components.
Mrs. Clinton is not poised to match the gains Mr. Obama made among nonwhite voters over previous Democratic nominees. That brings the pace of Democratic gains down to the slow crawl of demographic change."
The bold paragraph is key.
Yes, Obama's support was historic with minorities, but based on better polling models, even his overwhelming support with the is overrated in the analysis.
Clinton is doing slightly worst and even with this the national or overall polling numbers aren't showing a clear advantage due to the swing from her to Trump in minority support.
Lord Frieza
Member
Why? If your confidence is backed up by facts, why not? Why are liberals so afraid of being confident? Confidence =/= Complacency, if that's what you're getting at, and it's really, really sad that liberals in this country can only imagine one if it's devoid of the other.
Manmademan
Member
That is absolutely not the conventional wisdom and its very strange to hear someone who is supposedly an analyst say this. Obama was propelled to victory in 08 by an extremely complex data driven GOTV operation that was built in 2008 and expanded on over four years.
Demographic shifts had nothing to do with it.
The story behind mitt romney's 2012 loss to Obama
You absolutely cannot ignore the massive advantage this gives in a presidential race, and as lopsided as Obama's lead over Romney's was in this area, the gap between Clinton's GOTV operation and Trump's is even worse:
entremet
Member
That is absolutely not the conventional wisdom and its very strange to hear someone who is supposedly an analyst say this. Obama was propelled to victory in 08 by an extremely complex data driven GOTV operation that was built in 2008 and expanded on over four years.
Demographic shifts had nothing to do with it.
The story behind mitt romney's 2012 loss to Obama
You absolutely cannot ignore the massive advantage this gives in a presidential race, and as lopsided as Obama's lead over Romney's was in this area, the gap between Clinton's GOTV operation and Trump's is even worse:
You see that a conventional wisdom?
That seems more inside baseball for politics junkies.
I mostly remember hearing about Obama's big minority support, including women and white women.
Again, I'm talking about the shallow stuff from cable news.
Unless the writer is talking about insider conventional wisdom. I would agree there.
abstract alien
Member
Why exactly should Blacks and Hispanics be voting for her? An honest question, as I don't know much about politics.
This is what made sure that support showed up.
entremet
Member
Good point.
Manmademan
Member
It's not. "conventional wisdom" is literally any article written about why Romney lost in 2012. No one was pointing at "demographic shifts" which are fairly slow. It was ENTIRELY Obama's GOTV operation which is not a small thing.
Look at any article written on why Obama beat the hell out of Hillary in the 08 primary and you'll see the same thing. Obama's team pretty much invented a grassroots GOTV and fundraising operation which was of a scale completely unheard of in american politics. Hillary couldn't match it in 08, McCain couldn't match it in 08, and Romney wasn't anywhere close to it despite 4 years to prepare in 2012 and the full backing of the GOP establishment behind him. It's THAT good.
"big minority support" doesn't come from demographic shifts, it comes from turnout. these are two different things. NOBODY was pointing at demographic shifts as to why obama won in 2012, and demographic shifts don't explain the ramp up in black turnout from 2000 to 2012.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Her first speech was about criminal justice reform.
His first speech was about brown people coming over here to rape and kill people.
That's just for starters. Personally, I'm beginning to wonder if Dems couldn't have done better fielding a candidate but I don't want to see Obama have to face the man who questioned his birth because he's a racist bigot as his successor.
entremet
Member
Gotcha. Good explanation.
SolidSnakex
Member
Don't you think that it speaks volumes that you need to specifically search for "Black Trump Supporters"?
Manmademan
Member
The republican party platform was extremely toxic to blacks and hispanics even BEFORE Trump rolled out with his schtick this year which has turned the racist dogwhistles up to 11.
Trump's entire appeal during the primary was building a wall to keep mexicans and muslims out, and he's targeting his messaging towards the kind of people that resonates with.
This has absolutely not gone unnoticed among minorities.
gregor7777
Banned
I wish Biden would have ran. I'm not at all confident Hillary can beat Trump. I think Biden would have smoked Trump.
It's a sickening feeling.
It's a sickening feeling.
Then you probably don't know what either candidates stances are on social issues
Lord Frieza
Member
I mean, she's winning fairly comfortably now and has never actually been behind Trump in electorate polling, doesn't that give you some confidence?
gregor7777
Banned
A bit yeah, but I worry about turnout. No one seems excited for Hillary at all.
Aaronology
Member
You would prefer the 2016 Democratic ticket be significantly less Progressive than it is now? What is it about Biden's political history that makes you favor the idea of him being President over Clinton?
gregor7777
Banned
I'm pretty sure I didn't say I "favor the idea of him being President over Clinton". I said I wish he would have ran instead because I feel he was a guaranteed win. I'm very concerned with Hillary's turnout. Perhaps I shouldn't be.
BoosterDuck
Banned
but what if one of them was a shill who's going to get stonewalled by senate anyways
PdotMichael
Banned
It's crazy that Clinton doesn't has historical support from the non whites groups although the other side basically wants to get rid of them.
Manmademan
Member
Thanks. Also worth considering was the change in strategy. Hillary's plan in 08 was to do essentially what Kerry did in 04- ramp up support in democratic strongholds and swing states.
Obama's team turned the conventional strategy on its head and competed EVERYWHERE. he dominated her in caucus states which her team overlooked almost completely and pretty much ended her campaign on super tuesday.
In the general he expanded on that, and ended up forcing the republicans to compete in states they never thought they'd have to. That's how indiana and NC ended up flipping in 08 when no one saw it coming, and Missouri was less than 1% away from joining them.
Right now the republican party is in a situation where most of the traditional "swing" states are out of play, and they're forced to defend themselves in places like south carolina and georgia instead of making a play for states that they need to flip like CO, VA, PA, NH, etc.
Trump's fundraising is so poor, and his GOTV operation so threadbare that they literally cannot afford to compete where they need to.
Democrats are taking the senate outside of a complete meltdown re: the clinton campaign. Not knowing this on your end tells us all we need to know about how closely you're paying attention
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