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...I'm saying WOW. Insane DS numbers. Poor MGS3 never had a chance.

I'd say doing over 100k in its first week is pretty good for a rerelease, considering Japan has always been MGS's weakest region.

But yeah, DS sales are seriously crazy.

 

[ioi]

¿ ~200k for PSP ?

I was gonna say, another 400k hardware is a fair bit actually.

I'd guess something like:

PSP 145k
PS2 100k
GBA 80k
GC 55k
X360 20k

 

[Gahiggidy]

Hardware was 1 million 7 thousand of 67.6% increase compared with last week, and the highest upsurge was shown this week when the weekend became Christmas though software looked back on 4 million 374 thousand of 80.4% increase and the market of five years in the past.
Popular RPG 'Kingdom Harts II' (PS2) in which many appear the character of Disney and 'Final Fantasy' series acquires 1st place to in such and this week's rankings. 517,000(shop digestion rate about 75%) that exceeded 416,000(820,000 totals) about 100,000 results during the first on the week of the sale was sold. By the way, the addition of a further figure can be expected enough when thinking about the new year's present demand at the new year etc. though the number of total sales becomes 1 million 19 thousand if the dependence rate 50.7% is applied to the work during the first now. 431,000(1 million 263 thousand totals) ..'It is and a forest very stricken' (DS) in 2nd place.. more than 401,000 of the sale weeks is sold, it makes to the week fifth, and one million is already exceeded. The situation in which the supply doesn't catch up with demand in a lot of shops seems to continue, and to extend the figure still. In continuing 3rd place, 'Mariocart DS' (DS) is a rank Inn as well as last week. 293,000 was sold, and the total sales numbers were extended up to 662,000 this week. Besides this, fighting ACT 'NARUTO-Naltornaltimettoheror 3' (PS2) that makes popular character "NARUTO" a theme sells 204,000 and it the first appears in 4th place in the new work. '?2' It will be able to be said that so-so started though some numbers were dropped during the sale week of (PS2) compared with 237,000(420,000 totals) results. Moreover, the number of total sales also finally exceeds Mirion to 'DS training of the adult that strengthens the brain' (1 million 58 thousand of DS/this week 85,000/totals) in 9th place at the same time as achieving the heroic deed of making to month seventh and recording the number of highest sales on the week. Miriontaitol that became the first this year after 'Dragon quest VIII' (PS2) the sale at the end of last year was born from two DS this week.
On the other hand, it is pulled to a good soft group and Cocoroyoshingeki of DS doesn't stop in a hard market. 604,000 sales that become 61.0% increase compared with last week are recorded this week. The number of sales was recorded on the highest week in the past that greatly exceeded 401,000 that had recorded on the week of the sale. Moreover, the number of total sales from the sale reached 5.13 million, and it exceeded it from the sale below the mark of five million by the shortest in history pace of 1 year and three weeks.

- 2005/12/26?2006/1/1 total is a publishing schedule brought together in 2006/1/12
for two weeks.

　

-- and none of the X360 games manages to crack the top 50....

http://www.dengekionline.com/soft/ranking/ranking.htm

 

[Leonsito]

I was gonna say, another 400k hardware is a fair bit actually.

I'd guess something like:

PSP 145k
PS2 100k
GBA 80k
GC 55k
X360 20k

I'm betting for:

PSP 195k
PS2 95k
GBA 70k
GC 30k
X360 20k

 

[ioi]

.

I'm a bit confused about the Dengeki stuff- doesn't it say 517k first week for KH II and 401k this week for Animal Crossing?

It gives the original KH at 416k and 820k total, and presumably the 431k blah blah stuff is about the final mix and how it boosted the originals sales to over 1m.

 

[gimz]

If Nintendo is smart, they should start working on Animal Crossing for Revolution and show it on E3 2006

Merry Christmas Nintendo!

 

[ziran]

I'm a bit confused about the Dengeki stuff- doesn't it say 517k first week for KH II?

i'm pretty sure it says 517k, at a ratio of 75% of its shipment, ~100k more than kh1, but i babelfished, so...

 

[Archie]

Happy Easter Nintendo!

.

 

[Roders5]

This thread needs even more DS love

 

[Rock_Man]

prediction:
DS 600k
PSP 120k
PS2 120k
GBA 80k
GC 60k
X360 20k

 

[ioi]

i'm pretty sure it says 517k, at a ratio of 75% of its shipment, ~100k more than kh1, but i babelfished, so...

Yeah, not 820k you put originally

Also I think AC is 401k not 431k.

 

[ioi]

prediction:
DS 600k
PSP 120k
PS2 120k
GBA 80k
GC 60k
X360 20k

Yeah that looks about right, there will be a fair jump in GBA / GC sales this week- remember GC doing 100k this week last year out of nowhere?

 

[xaosslug]

Oh god, what have I started now?

Look, Rogue Galaxy has done very well for Level 5 and is a great game from what I have seen and for a new IP blah blah it's done well.

All I'm saying is that in the grand scheme of things it will probably make about top 30-40 list of the year in sales and this thread and the point i was replying to is about sales.

The poster made the point that:



And I don't really see how RG has risen above anything? It barely outsold Mk first week and promptly dropped away while MK has had some amazing sales since. This was always gonna be the case as this is what RPGs do and that is what games like MK do over xmas.

I'm not knocking Rogue Galaxy in any way, but to use it as an example of a game that has 'risen above' the outstanding DS sales over the last month or so is a bit odd in my opinion.

well, considering it precedes nothing, it being a spankin’ new IP and all, and the fialed new IP’s that came before. it has done outstanding. far beyond my expectations.

that was one example (a recent game, a game i personally find intriguing, hope comes stateside) many PS2 games that have done well (my perception) regardless of how "innovation starved" (Nintendo fans war cry/opinion of reasoning as to Nintendo’s recent handheld success, not, pray tell their yearsandyearsandyears of practically sole handheld market saturation/domination) Japan gamers are alleged to be. granted, there has yet to be an alternative (does EyeToy and it's games count? hmmmm…). we shall see. ::shruuuug::

 

[ziran]

Yeah, not 820k you put originally

yeah, you were quick

i thought, 820k! it's popular, but not that big.

still 517k is quite a bit different from mc's 728k.

Also I think AC is 401k not 431k.

i think the ac 431k is correct. the 401k was the launch week. i think it says:
'ac sold 431k which exceeds sales in its launch week'

 

[ioi]

yeah, you were quick

i thought, 820k! it's popular, but not that big.

still 517k is quite a bit different from mc's 728k.

Indeed- back to the old MC =/= Famitsu =/= Dengeki argument.

So just average the three

 

[ioi]

that was one example (a recent game, a game i personally find intriguing, hope comes stateside) many PS2 games that have done well (my perception) regardless of how "innovation starved" (Nintendo fans war cry/opinion of reasoning as to Nintendo’s recent handheld success, not, pray tell their yearsandyearsandyears of practically sole handheld market saturation/domination) Japan gamers are alleged to be. granted, there has yet to be an alternative (does EyeToy and it's games count? hmmmm…). we shall see. ::shruuuug::

You don't get the whole DS thing do you?

It's not just the latest Gameboy, it's a whole new ball game entirely...

 

[monkeyrun]

well, considering it precedes nothing, it being a spankin’ new IP and all, and the fialed new IP’s that came before. it has done outstanding. far beyond my expectations.

that was one example (a recent game, a game i personally find intriguing, hope comes stateside) many PS2 games that have done well (my perception) regardless of how "innovation starved" (Nintendo fans war cry/opinion of reasoning as to Nintendo’s recent handheld success, not, pray tell their yearsandyearsandyears of practically sole handheld market saturation/domination) Japan gamers are alleged to be. granted, there has yet to be an alternative (does EyeToy and it's games count? hmmmm…). we shall see. ::shruuuug::

You are seriously trying too hard

 

[Gahiggidy]

My prediction....

NDS      604,000
GCN      391,000
GBA            0 (sold out)
GBAm           0 (sold out)
PSP        7,200
PS2        4,684
XBX          112[u]
X360           4[/u]
[b]       1,007,000[/b]

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Nice, MC-DGE 210.000 difference about KH2. Now we need Famitsu numbers to guess an accurate number... :lol

EDIT: I knew it...

 

[ziran]

Indeed- back to the old MC =/= Famitsu =/= Dengeki argument.

So just average the three

i know people are giving you a hard time about your predictions but surely the way you've described you calculate them is the way all publishers do it?

i mean take ds tamagotchi. everybody here is surprised by its sales, yet bandai provided sufficient stock to sell ~160k this week. so there must be an element of guesswork based on previous trends and retail expectation.

i'm not saying you're guaranteed to be right all the time, but there's clearly a sound method there.

 

[jayhawker]

This is a little out-of-place, but since we're all just sitting around being fanboys while we wait on hardware numbers, could someone post WW LTD numbers for Donkey Kong: Jungle Beat?

I seem to have MC @ ~250k and NPD @ ~300k, and I have nothing for Europe. Those first two are probably off anyhow. Thanks

 

[Joe Molotov]

My prediction....

NDS      604,000
GCN      391,000
GBA            0 (sold out)
GBAm           0 (sold out)
PSP        7,200
PS2        4,684
XBX          112[u]
X360           4[/u]
[b]       1,007,000[/b]

Seems about right. Your 360 numbers might be a little too high though.

 

[Katana_Strikes]

and I have nothing for Europe.

You'd probably not be far off with that one...

 

[Link]

What's with all the people in this thread being "offended" by sales estimates all of a sudden? Does it hurt you in some way? This isn't even something new.

 

[ziran]

This is a little out-of-place, but since we're all just sitting around being fanboys while we wait on hardware numbers, could someone post WW LTD numbers for Donkey Kong: Jungle Beat?

I seem to have MC @ ~250k and NPD @ ~300k, and I have nothing for Europe. Those first two are probably off anyhow. Thanks

someone may have them, but european sales figures are difficult to come by.

 

[Izzy]

My prediction....

NDS      604,000
GCN      391,000
GBA            0 (sold out)
GBAm           0 (sold out)
PSP        7,200
PS2        4,684
XBX          112[u]
X360           4[/u]
[b]       1,007,000[/b]

Sounds about right.

 

[Dalthien]

That's the problem with your site, we don't know what numbers are your guesses and what numbers have been reported by the various firms.

For example, http://www.everythingandnothing.org.uk/vg/japweekly.php?date=38711. When someone looks at that they think they're numbers reported by one of the firms but you don't make it clear how you came to them.

That's the same problem that I have with the site. I'm sure that a fair amount of time and research goes into your numbers, along with a fair amount of mathematical analysis, and I'm not discouraging you from continuing that in any way - but it seems that it would only be right (and in the interests of full-disclosure and fair reporting) to make sure that the numbers on your site are sourced properly, and that any of your own numbers are clearly labeled as such.

Again, I think that you do a pretty good job with your numbers, and you obviously put a lot of time into trying to follow trends and project these trends into the future - but that is exactly what Media Create and Famitsu do as well, and they are professional firms that make their livings at this. From what you were saying, it sounds as though you apply ajustment factors to Famitsu's and Media Create's numbers - but they have already spent a lot of time and money researching the best adjustment factors that they already apply to the data. Their numbers are not 100% perfect, but they are as close as anyone is going to get. Media Create tracks more than half of retail in Japan, and has researched the best possible methods for estimating the remaining retail that they don't track. And Famitsu isn't far behind Media Create with their retail tracking. If these firms weren't very close with their numbers - then they wouldn't be paid huge dollars for their reports. And for the most part - Media Create and Famitsu track very close to each other. Dengeki is often a bit further apart with their numbers from Famitsu and Media Create - but I usually just focus on Famitsu and Media Create anyway.

Anyway, the point is that I think it would be appropriate for you to fully label and disclose where all of your numbers come from (including your own numbers) so that people who visit your site know just where the information is coming from.

 

[bud]

Lol, that's just my guess so don't take it too seriously.

Didn't know that. :lol

 

[xaosslug]

You are seriously trying too hard

You don't get the whole DS thing do you?

It's not just the latest Gameboy, it's a whole new ball game entirely...

by the end of 2006, the entire handheld landscape will be flipped.

 

[jarrod]

well, considering it precedes nothing, it being a spankin’ new IP and all, and the fialed new IP’s that came before. it has done outstanding. far beyond my expectations.

Then your expectations are shit. A big budget, Sony pushed RPG from the makers of Dragon Quest sells 250-300k... and you expected less? RG is doing well, no doubt, but it's not doing exceptionally at all. Fuck, it's not even going to match the debuts of Sony stuff like Arc the Lad, Wildarms, Popolocrois or Legend of Dragoon, and those games had far weaker pedigrees and budgets going.

 

[u_neek]

Impressive...

How much is Abyss at?

 

[jman2050]

by the end of 2006, the entire handheld landscape will be flipped.

handhelds being eclipsed by consoles? Sure.

PSP > DS? Not a chance.

 

[borghe]

by the end of 2006, the entire handheld landscape will be flipped.

either you are joking, or this board REALLY needs a rolleyes smiley.

 

[xaosslug]

either you are joking, or this board REALLY needs a rolleyes smiley.

handhelds being eclipsed by consoles? Sure.

PSP > DS? Not a chance.

we shall see.

Then your expectations are shit. A big budget, Sony pushed RPG from the makers of Dragon Quest sells 250-300k... and you expected less? RG is doing well, no doubt, but it's not doing exceptionally at all. Fuck, it's not even going to match the debuts of Sony stuff like Arc the Lad, Wildarms, Popolocrois or Legend of Dragoon, and those games had far weaker pedigrees and budgets going.

but, those weren't cellshaded. thus, RG lacked that "wowee" CG factor them games had. my expectations are just that, mine.

 

[Red Blaster]

we shall see.



but, those weren't cellshaded. thus, RG lacked that "wowee" CG factor them games had. my expectations are just that, mine.

What the hell are you talking about.

 

[borghe]

we shall see.

the DS has something like a 2 million system lead worldwide, MOST of that being in both systems' native territory, not to mention sales leadership and momentum in two of the three territories. AND AND AND PSP already released one of it's three ace in the holes with no proper MGS game announced and GT-psp a ways off yet. Not to mention one of Sony's usual other aces, square, is supporting the DS far more than PSP.

I mean anything can happen I suppose, but at this point it would take a (unprecedented) miracle for Sony to swipe leadership from nintendo in handhelds. When a system is leading a year into the generation by like 20% (or whatever it is) the generation has pretty much been set. About the closest case I can come to breaking that is SNES and Genesis, though SNES launched two years later not to mention that was the previous encumbent displacing the (figuratively) new upstart.

 

[Deku]

But the PSP has better grphx like the Linx or GameGear had over GameBoy

 

[jarrod]

but, those weren't cellshaded. thus, RG lacked that "wowee" CG factor them games had. my expectations are just that, mine.

Uh... Popolocrois was hand drawn, Arc used sprites and prerendered backdrops and Wild Arms/LOD were realtime 3D. Unless you're talking about cinemas, but then RG has amazingly impressive rendered cinemas. :/

Anyone who expected 200k or less for RG is a straight up moron.

 

[borghe]

I am not knocking anything on the PSP or touting anything on the DS here. The fact is that this handheld generation is a year old now and the DS has a dinstinct worldwide advantage, a distinct advantage in their native territory, a sales lead and upwards momentum in the US, and a close race in the UK. For Sony to "flip all of that around" would seriously be unprecedented in the history of video games.

At this point I would be surprised to see the handheld landscape changing much. Budgets are already being dictated on where sales and momentum are now. and with the two systems being 100% incompatible it's not like something that is in development for the DS now could be moved to the PSP later (or vice versa)

 

[Myoclonic Jerk]

almost cried when I read AC and MK numbers..

I JUST got MK DS today and this game is, with all honesty, the BEST Mario Kart game ever

Thank you Nintendo

 

[verplant]

the DS has something like a 2 million system lead worldwide

by Dez. 25th it's more than 2.5 million in japan => worldwide about 3.5 Mio.

 

[Azelover]

by the end of 2006, the entire handheld landscape will be flipped.

nevermind

 

[Link]

by Dez. 25th it's more than 2.5 million in japan => worldwide about 3.5 Mio.

Unless the DS is really kicking ass in Europe, the worldwide lead isn't that high.

 

[borghe]

Unless the DS is really kicking ass in Europe, the worldwide lead isn't that high.

FWIW the two are pretty close to dead even in Europe. At least close enough that the advantage the DS has in america and japan easily offsets the advantage the PSP has in europe by quite a bit.

 

[Yamauchi]

DS win.

 

[Dalthien]

Unless the DS is really kicking ass in Europe, the worldwide lead isn't that high.

It's not so much that the DS is kicking ass, but that it had a sizable headstart. The DS & PSP have been tracking very close together since the PSP released, but the DS is still up about 175,000 LTD in the UK. And the DS has been performing even better (relative to the PSP) in other parts of Europe, such as France, Germany, etc. I would suspect the DS probably has an overall lead of about 750,000 or so throughout Europe right now.

 

[xaosslug]

i don't think that quite had the effect you were going for. A for effort, though.

 

[Yoshi]

Borghe, do you remember Burnout Legends :ugly:?

 

[Razoric]

Borghe, do you remember Burnout Legends :ugly:?

EA

 

[borghe]

but for every couple of shit DS games released, at least currently it seems like you are getting one standout title. it seems to have a lower shit to exceptional ratio than typical, but in any case has numerous great titles that are big names to boot (or new IPs that are turning into big names).

And IMHO, Animal Crossing deserves every one of those sales. Hell, the handheld playability is such a strong match for that game I wouldn't even care if they never came out with a console version again. Give the handheld version some bonus features for Revolution or something but leave it (like pokemon) primarily as a handheld franchise. it really seems to be a perfect match.