NPD Sales Results for January 2016

Obliterator

Member
Apr 21, 2015
17,649
0
0
On PS4 Mortal Kombat X sold more than 734k in 19 days.

SF V will have 12 days in february NPD.
This is good info for SFV predictions

In other words it has a full week less worth of sales for the tracking period and do you believe in NA Street Fighter is as big as Mortal Kombat now days.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
0
0
JAPAN
twitter.com
creamsugar said this month that the gap is 1383k, in december the gap was 1285k according to him, so jan gap= 98k.

230k for PS4 is 132k for Xbox One / 234k for PS4 is 134k for Xbox One.

That's why I believe 230k is better.
This is what I was talking to donny about. Cream had posted a gap of 1285k back in December, so with this month, at 1383k, the gap would be 98k.

However, in the September NPD thread, Cream had also posted the gap was 862k, and thanks to George, we got accurate numbers that we can add to the gap, which adds up to 1283k at the end of 2015. Rounding numbers has basically muddied the results we can get through math.
Ok so the debate hinges around whether cream rounds to the nearest thousand or the nearest 5 thousand then? Why not just ask someone with access to the figures to clarify?
 

RexNovis

Banned
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
0
0
JAPAN
twitter.com
Huh how do you know that? Did we get clarification for that?

This is good info for SFV predictions

In other words it has a full week less worth of sales for the tracking period and do you believe in NA Street Fighter is as big as Mortal Kombat now days.
I think it'll sell somewhere around 520k. Anything less than 450k would be extremely dissapointing IMHO. Street Fighter and MK aren't going to deviate too terribly much from the standard trends sales wise during opening month (by standard trends I mean the vast majority of the sales for the first month or so fall in opening week) so a difference of a week in tracking time is likely to have much less impact than the assumed 1/3 difference when it comes to sales.

I am hopeful for solid results with both SFV and Digimon Cyber Sleuth but time will tell.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Jul 7, 2015
5,237
0
0
Italy
twitter.com
For who think Fates has no chance to outsell Street Fighter... The Series is a lot more famous than years ago, and Fates is looking for a very succesfull launch.

On Amazon is a beast, both SKUs in TOP 10, one At #4 and the other At #6, even if Amaxon is not accurate For SW that's impressive.

Keep in mind this game has sold over 350,000 in Japan the first week, which is Like >100k more than what Awakening sold.


Not saying Will outsell SF V, but that's not so impossible. For example SF V can sell under 300k, which could be very low but is posdible, and Fates over 300k.
 

Sterok

Member
Nov 3, 2014
3,182
0
0
Do we have any retail spies to give us hints on how Street Fighter, Fates, Primal, and other new games are doing/looking?
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
0
0
So 230k with a 98k gap pretty much confirmed.
Okay, so we're back to using 230K/130K/40K for predictions, then. (Gap is 98K, but I don't think we know that PS4 was exactly 230K. Therefore, we still round to nearest 5K, since we don't know exact numbers.) Just need a 3DS something ...
 

RexNovis

Banned
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
0
0
JAPAN
twitter.com
Okay, so we're back to using 230K/130K/40K for predictions, then. (Gap is 98K, but I don't think we know that PS4 was exactly 230K. Therefore, we still round to nearest 5K, since we don't know exact numbers.) Just need a 3DS something ...
I swear trying to get 3DS figures is like pulling teeth every damn month. Really getting old.
 

onanie

Member
Jul 12, 2007
1,166
0
0
Okay, so we're back to using 230K/130K/40K for predictions, then. (Gap is 98K, but I don't think we know that PS4 was exactly 230K. Therefore, we still round to nearest 5K, since we don't know exact numbers.) Just need a 3DS something ...
So the gap is back to 100K?
 

CosmicQueso

Member
Feb 16, 2010
14,234
0
0
Mars
I swear trying to get 3DS figures is like pulling teeth every damn month. Really getting old.
A platform in significant decline, with software share dominated by the 1st party company that makes it. A very protectionist and important company, the ire of which no one wants to attract.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
0
0
JAPAN
twitter.com
A platform in significant decline, with software share dominated by the 1st party company that makes it. A very protectionist and important company, the ire of which no one wants to attract.
I mean I get why it's always difficult to get figures for and it makes sense but its still tiresome having to constantly beg/wait every month for predictions.

Just assume it is zero from now until NX is released. Works for Vita!
Hah! Ouch.
 

Obliterator

Member
Apr 21, 2015
17,649
0
0
For who think Fates has no chance to outsell Street Fighter... The Series is a lot more famous than years ago, and Fates is looking for a very succesfull launch.

On Amazon is a beast, both SKUs in TOP 10, one At #4 and the other At #6, even if Amaxon is not accurate For SW that's impressive.

Keep in mind this game has sold over 350,000 in Japan the first week, which is Like >100k more than what Awakening sold.


Not saying Will outsell SF V, but that's not so impossible. For example SF V can sell under 300k, which could be very low but is posdible, and Fates over 300k.
Combined Fates SKUs will be really really nice.
 

CosmicQueso

Member
Feb 16, 2010
14,234
0
0
Mars
I mean I get why it's always difficult to get figures for and it makes sense but its still tiresome having to constantly beg/wait every month for predictions.
I hear you. But it's going to get more difficult before it gets less.

The secrecy really is the most ridiculous thing. There's no reason for it. If anything, having this information public for the investment community makes a lot of sense. Unfortunately, that's not how it is.
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
1
1,000
I swear trying to get 3DS figures is like pulling teeth every damn month. Really getting old.
yeah, that's because there isn't much demand here since handhelds sales are kinda boring lately. creamsugar doesn't talk anymore and George never did.

But we still need for the predictions results and for not break track record.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
0
0
JAPAN
twitter.com
yeah, that's because there isn't much demand here since handhelds sales are kinda boring lately. creamsugar doesn't talk anymore and George never did.

But we still need for the predictions results and for not break track record.
Every month I find myself wishing we didn't have to bother with 3DS for predictions. Just seems like nobody really cares about the sales in the platform anyway and seems out of place in the context of predictions wen the the other 3 platforms are all home consoles. At this point I fail to see how 3DS is any more relevant to the discussion/topic of sales than the WiiU is despite the latter having a lower footprint there seems to be significantly more interest and it's just more relevant to the context of the other platforms we are discussing.
 

Obliterator

Member
Apr 21, 2015
17,649
0
0
I hear you. But it's going to get more difficult before it gets less.

The secrecy really is the most ridiculous thing. There's no reason for it. If anything, having this information public for the investment community makes a lot of sense. Unfortunately, that's not how it is.
The absolute lock down on financial information in this industry is unquestionably the most aggravating part.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
0
0
JAPAN
twitter.com
The secrecy really is the most ridiculous thing. There's no reason for it. If anything, having this information public for the investment community makes a lot of sense. Unfortunately, that's not how it is.
I mean there is a reason: fear. The company in question is fearful of investors rightfully concluding the mobile market is leading to a rapid decline for the dedicated handheld market. When you have a company that is struggling with their home console product and has traditionally had a very dependable revenue stream from mobile of course they're going to be hesitant to show numbers that cast the future of that revenue stream in doubt.

My major qualm is that it seems like the only reason the numbers are even brought up or asked for anymore are specifically because they are needed for predictions. Nobody here seems to care at all otherwise. So it sort of begs the question as to why they are still a part of our predictions. I know that Donny says it's because it's a more relevant chunk of sales share wise but I'd argue that the difficulty of obtaining figures, current mindshare and relevance in comparison to other included platforms should also be factors in consideration here.
 

Obliterator

Member
Apr 21, 2015
17,649
0
0
I mean there is a reason: fear. The company in question is fearful of investors rightfully concluding the mobile market is leading to a rapid decline for the dedicated handheld market. When you have a company that is struggling with their home console product and has traditionally had a very dependable revenue stream from mobile of course they're going to be hesitant to show numbers that cast the future of that revenue stream in doubt.

My major qualm is that it seems like the only reason the numbers are even brought up or asked for anymore are specifically because they are needed for predictions. Nobody here seems to care at all otherwise.
The thing is, no one in this industry wants you to talk about their numbers. No one.
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
1
1,000
I suppose investment community knows even not being NPD subscribers. There's other sources like Wedbush report.
 

CosmicQueso

Member
Feb 16, 2010
14,234
0
0
Mars
The thing is, no one in this industry wants you to talk about their numbers. No one.
Let me tell you about this amazing new metric. By using it, companies can publish really big numbers, and yet at the same time it conveys no actual useful information!

Can anyone guess what that metric is called?

I suppose investment community knows even not being NPD subscribers. There's other sources like Wedbush report.
Sure. But the common investor isn't given the same access to information. Anyways, huge sidetrack, but it's all very silly.
 

Obliterator

Member
Apr 21, 2015
17,649
0
0
It's just so damn frustrating. In film you know the budget of the film, what it makes at the box office, revenue per region, everything. Its mostly open book.

In gaming though....LOCK IT THE FUCK DOWN.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
0
0
JAPAN
twitter.com
The thing is, no one in this industry wants you to talk about their numbers. No one.
True but it seems like 3DS numbers are a special sort of sticking point. I'd wager it's for the reasons I mention.

Regardless yea I agree the whole secreting nature of sales in the industry is weird especially in the context of entertainment when you look at the very public data available for movies, books and music. Digital game sales are looking like they will complicate and obfuscate things even further which is incredibly discouraging. It's truly bizarre how video games are such a huge exception to the trend of open data in the sector.
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
1
1,000
It's just so damn frustrating. In film you know the budget of the film, what it makes at the box office, revenue per region, everything. Its mostly open book.

In gaming though....LOCK IT THE FUCK DOWN.
yeah, even Nielsen BookScan and SoundScan is more easy to find some data. NPD is very restricted in recent years.
 

slavesnyder

Member
Nov 18, 2013
4,304
0
355
Maybe we should exclude DS from the guessing game. Not cool but what can we do?
On the other hand we get WiiU numbers from the same company. Where's the logic?
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
1
1,000
Maybe we should exclude DS from the guessing game. Not cool but what can we do?
On the other hand we get WiiU numbers from the same company. Where's the logic?
We have Wii U more easily because is a home console, so we get the number together with PS4 and XBO.

But one way or another 3DS number is appearing for months, so let's wait this will be the case again.
 

theprodigy

Member
Aug 25, 2013
24,331
0
0
Maybe we should exclude DS from the guessing game. Not cool but what can we do?
On the other hand we get WiiU numbers from the same company. Where's the logic?
We only get Wii U because it comes with the other two consoles.

Maybe creamsugar should start throwing in the 3DS with the pie chart lol
 

slavesnyder

Member
Nov 18, 2013
4,304
0
355
We only get Wii U because it comes with the other two consoles.

Maybe creamsugar should start throwing in the 3DS with the pie chart lol
Didn't he do this in the good old times?
Don't know how his access to data is organised. Maybe it really is two parts, console and handhelds, and he only has a grip on the first one.
 

ethomaz

Member
Mar 19, 2013
22,615
1,545
520
36
Brazil
The thing is, no one in this industry wants you to talk about their numbers. No one.
I can say it depends....

If you sell better than others then everybody wants you talk about the numbers (eg. Apple)
If you sell less than others then no one wants you to talk about numbers (eg. MS)

MS was pretty open with 360 numbers.
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,512
0
370
Didn't he do this in the good old times?
Don't know how his access to data is organised. Maybe it really is two parts, console and handhelds, and he only has a grip on the first one.
Cream has done pies for handhelds before. They were separate to the console pie.
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
0
0
Handhelds (3DS and Vita) were down 21% over January 2015. Vita is kind of unknown, but 10K seems to be a reasonable guess month-to-month on it (unless it's in sold out state). 21% decline vs. January 2015 - 10K for Vita => ~70K. That also fits the idea that it's below predictions for the month. That + some vague head nodding from that guy in the corner (don't look!) leads me to be okay with 70K for 3DS for the month. (^_^)

Now to resurrect the old code for dealing with WIU for units only ...
 

serversurfer

Member
Aug 31, 2013
4,962
0
0
I mean I get why it's always difficult to get figures for and it makes sense but its still tiresome having to constantly beg/wait every month for predictions.
Perhaps we should just skip that part, and trust that reasonably accurate numbers will be used?