NPD Sales Results for January 2016

Feb 24, 2014
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Handhelds (3DS and Vita) were down 21% over January 2015. Vita is kind of unknown, but 10K seems to be a reasonable guess month-to-month on it (unless it's in sold out state). 21% decline vs. January 2015 - 10K for Vita => ~70K. That also fits the idea that it's below predictions for the month. That + some vague head nodding from that guy in the corner (don't look!) leads me to be okay with 70K for 3DS for the month. (^_^)

Now to resurrect the old code for dealing with WIU for units only ...
Wasn't that 21% for revenue?

And that thing in the corner is a person? Thought it was a statue.
 
Apr 21, 2015
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I can say it depends....

If you sell better than others then everybody wants you talk about the numbers (eg. Apple)
If you sell less than others then no one wants you to talk about numbers (eg. MS)

MS was pretty open with 360 numbers.
In the current market conditions devs and pubs want that thing locked down. They dont want anything out there, whether hugely successful or not. There are always exceptions of course
 
Aug 31, 2013
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Sometimes it's the same thing .
Indeed. I never really understood the mentality that companies are interchangeable or somehow divorced from their own actions. You'd be laughed at if you tried to say the same about people. Would you suggest it doesn't matter who your surgeon is, or who teaches your children, or who Obama appoints to the Court? #SCOTUS #WhyNotTrump


To be fair, Greenberg does have a tweet from a few years back where he says very specifically that when they say sold through, they mean to retailers, in his words "retailers are our customers."

Whether that is still their way of reporting sales, who knows with Greenburg..
That's a very MS attitude, actually. Traditionally, MS have put as much distance between themselves and users as is possible, and they certainly don't view users as their customers. As Greenberg explained, retail is an XBox customer, because they're the ones buying the hardware and software. Publishers are also XBox customers, when they pay MS to appear on the platform. You may be a Windows user, but you're not a Windows customer. Dell is a Windows customer. You're a Dell customer. Or a GameStop customer. Or an EA customer. "Someone else's problem," basically.


And not helping Xbone's situation at all. All around baffling deal. Desperation from MS's part and stupidity from SE. MS should have used that money to foster some own IP's, even though they take bit more time to be ready for market.
Phil said he already tried that, starting some, and "looking at" others. Remember he's been in charge of game development at MS for several years now, and while it may appear he's been twiddling his thumbs that entire time, he claims otherwise. Having tried and failed to both build and buy a compelling IP of his own, he decided to pay to keep Tomb Raider off the platforms he was competing with at the time; PS4, and to a lesser extent, Windows.


All NPD reflects is what dollar amount a consumer paid. Not the value the consumer received in return, know what I mean?
I do indeed. Thanks, as always. <3

It's not super secret. It's just, for some reason, the 1 "P" that gets ignored the most.
If absolute values for each aren't available, perhaps something relative? PS4 +7%, or whatever? Or is there enough marketing happening on one side or the other that a direct ASP comparison isn't particularly useful? Would that then also apply to MoM and YoY differences for a specific console, much less relative to each other? So Bone was discounted 5% on average, but we have no idea if they were also including an additional $50 gift card, so the 5% change doesn't really tell us much at all?

Which is dumb. Still doesn't make the ARPU point incorrect.
Seems like maybe it was just miscommunication. The "spin" comment had nothing to do with the math itself, but rather VentureBeat's use of it. Math is Math, and Spin is Spin. Sometimes Math is used to create Spin, and other times it isn't.

People give GameStop a lot of grief here. But no company pushes consumer rights more than GameStop, crazy as that might sound.
Pretty reasonable to assume there would be a fair bit of overlap there, yes.


Was it, though?

For one, as bad as it may have been, it couldn't have possibly been any worse than it was at the beginning of the generation. It also seemed that Sony had usurped the independent development community on consoles away from Microsoft at that point. Both Bungie and Blizzard were on stage at the reveal. Everything we heard from Gearbox, Avalanche, and especially Epic games seemed incredibly positive about how Sony had looped developers in on the design process.
Well, Sony pretty much had the full support of the development community in years past, AFAIK. So if support that then dwindled to being half-hearted and/or patchy, that may feel like "basically zero" to Sony.

I'm not questioning the veracity of the claim, because I've heard it echoed from Jason Rubin and others but surely it must be qualified to certain developers and qualified as to what they actually meant by "winning."
If you're referring to the "Tara Reid speech," I think you misunderstood what he was saying. He wasn't really saying Sony were mistreating their developers in any way, or failing to provide the support they needed, or anything of the sort. And he certainly wasn't saying that Sony were worse than any publisher in this regard. The only reason his working at Sony was even relevant was because their other business interests exposed the issue to him; namely, that developers should be treated like celebrities like movie stars, directors, etc. If anything was "addressed to Sony," it was that of all game publishers, they should already understand that content creators should be celebrated, because of their dealings in the movie and music business. He actually made a very solid argument, and I think Sony have made a lot of positive moves in that area, as a matter of fact. Maybe you should watch the lecture again. :)


So, like a sports fan, I rooted for Sony to win despite the fact that I kinda hate their first party games and traditionally they have been an anti-consumer company. To watch them come out on top was like seeing a local team win the Superball or whatever.
In what way?


Math can even kill! Why have we not locked it up yet?!?!
"Killing bad guys with math" is the main appeal of RPG and strategy games for me. :)


SMT and Persona are different games in the same world, basically. Persona is more casual. You ought to have your gf play it on easy. She might like it.
And, yes, you have to save before closing the game if you aren't just suspending it to continue later.
Think of the shin Megami Tensei series as a spin off of sorts on Persona. They have their similarities and differences. Persona 4 Golden is fantastic and is also turn based but is far more in depth than Cyber Sleuth. You're looking at much more of a time and attention commitment for Persona. That said it's an absolutely incredible game so I think it's deserving of that personally. Between the two though Cyber Sleith would probably suit you better especially since you can save at anytime anywhere outside of battle which facilitates short bursts of pick up and play.
Thanks, I'll check them out. She used to play WoW, but I'm not sure she's ever played anything turn-based, so maybe I'll let her try Persona, seeing as how she's kinda adopted my Vita. lol

Oh you're in the tomorrow children beta? Totally jealous. Looking forward to that one. Q games never disappoints. They're brilliant.
Yeah, it's pretty awesome. Like anything, there's plenty of stuff I'd personally improve, but yeah, pretty much anything Q Games make is an insta-buy for me; always quirky and consistently quality. I guess I just figured out what the "Q" stands for. :p


You are dead to me. Real monstrous lizards are better than imaginary purple friends named Puff. Sorry not sorry.
How about a real, green friend, named Elliott?
 
Nov 3, 2014
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I've sort of given up on getting 3DS numbers. Leakers just aren't interested in some reason. Sucks, but thankfully we won't have to deal with it for too much longer.

I know Amazon hourly means nothing, but it's nice to see Fates at 4 and 5.
 
Aug 10, 2012
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Why we still predict for the 3DS? Clearly very few people if any care about its performance and not like we get numbers for the other handheld to make sense of the numbers.

Pretty much the only time we talk about it is by the end of the thread to get the prediction results going.
 
Feb 16, 2010
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If absolute values for each aren't available, perhaps something relative?
PS4 average price was down -12% YoY, Xone -5%.

Or is there enough marketing happening on one side or the other that a direct ASP comparison isn't particularly useful?
Most measures are useful in some way, but no particular measure will ever explain the full story. All are just pieces to the puzzle. Retail placement, retail inventory, retail promotion, marketing, PR, pricing, macro economic events, even weather can all impact sales in a particular period.

So Bone was discounted 5% on average, but we have no idea if they were also including an additional $50 gift card, so the 5% change doesn't really tell us much at all?
It tells you how much, on average, a consumer spent to acquire a console. That's it.
 
Nov 3, 2014
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Don't underestimate Fates. If they had combined SKU's for NPD it would chart very well
Do we have any idea how the SKU's will be counted? From Pokemon I'd assume they'd be separate, but Smash 3DS/U was combined despite them having different names. So it could go either way. Does NPD decide how to count it?
 
Jun 13, 2012
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I can say it depends....

If you sell better than others then everybody wants you talk about the numbers (eg. Apple)
If you sell less than others then no one wants you to talk about numbers (eg. MS)

MS was pretty open with 360 numbers.
.

Being seen as a failing platform, or at least not a winner, leads to the betamax/vhs situation where consumers actively avoid your platform. Hiding hardware numbers makes sense for some. And in the case of Nintendo, it is extra important because they do not want the entire business of hh gaming being seen as failing. Ninja's are real.
 
Aug 31, 2013
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PS4 average price was down -12% YoY, Xone -5%.
Hey, I was pretty close! ^.^

Most measures are useful in some way, but no particular measure will ever explain the full story. All are just pieces to the puzzle. Retail placement, retail inventory, retail promotion, marketing, PR, pricing, macro economic events, even weather can all impact sales in a particular period.

It tells you how much, on average, a consumer spent to acquire a console. That's it.
/nod <3
 
Dec 13, 2006
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I'm thinking that SFV reception is going to hurt the game hard.

Cyber Sleuth save us!
I could be wrong but I think that will be more of a PC thing than PS4, Steam reviews for the time being will hurt it but given how the titles in the NPD top 10 are sticking around because they are service based/releasing more content in a steady stream then as Street Fighter improves I think that will help it plus publishers seem to be more aggressive on pricing these days
 
Jun 13, 2014
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Well, Sony pretty much had the full support of the development community in years past, AFAIK. So if support that then dwindled to being half-hearted and/or patchy, that may feel like "basically zero" to Sony.


If you're referring to the "Tara Reid speech," I think you misunderstood what he was saying. He wasn't really saying Sony were mistreating their developers in any way, or failing to provide the support they needed, or anything of the sort. And he certainly wasn't saying that Sony were worse than any publisher in this regard. The only reason his working at Sony was even relevant was because their other business interests exposed the issue to him; namely, that developers should be treated like celebrities like movie stars, directors, etc. If anything was "addressed to Sony," it was that of all game publishers, they should already understand that content creators should be celebrated, because of their dealings in the movie and music business. He actually made a very solid argument, and I think Sony have made a lot of positive moves in that area, as a matter of fact. Maybe you should watch the lecture again. :)
No, I was talking about at the start of this gen. On the Bonus Round shortly after E3 2013, Jason Rubin remarked that leading up to the reveals, the industry was expecting Microsoft to win or even run away with this gen. I'm really interested in the logic behind that, given everything we know about ROTW and hoe thatbplayed into the way in which the PS3 was able to catch the Xbox 360 last generation.

It's not the same but along the same lines about Sony developer support being zero. From what I understand that was more true of the beginning of the PS3 gen.
 
Jan 20, 2008
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I could be wrong but I think that will be more of a PC thing than PS4, Steam reviews for the time being will hurt it but given how the titles in the NPD top 10 are sticking around because they are service based/releasing more content in a steady stream then as Street Fighter improves I think that will help it plus publishers seem to be more aggressive on pricing these days
This is a good point. I suppose we'll see how the Internet reception vs. critical reception will end up affecting the game.
 
Sep 2, 2014
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I could be wrong but I think that will be more of a PC thing than PS4, Steam reviews for the time being will hurt it but given how the titles in the NPD top 10 are sticking around because they are service based/releasing more content in a steady stream then as Street Fighter improves I think that will help it plus publishers seem to be more aggressive on pricing these days
This is a good point. I suppose we'll see how the Internet reception vs. critical reception will end up affecting the game.
SteamSpy has started going down, in fact, so...

... Reception has definitely started to hurt.
 
Sep 2, 2014
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Wow. Can you give insights as to why the gap is going to be large? Or is it more the mindshare now?
After a while, and once the generation has settled, it becomes a recursive thing of "friends are on X, I buy X" which feeds itself over and over. Only times this will change is if something disrupts the market, but the X1 and PS4 are pretty much "dull" in terms of being able to cause ripples at this point. So the X1 can't do anything but fall further and further behind.

The next things with be PSVR, NX, and whatever else makes it way out of the wood work.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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A large gap in sales should be expected in February. PS4 is $50 cheaper than last year and the Xbox One has sold to almost everyone that would buy one for $349.

I am expecting a ~150k gap, or about the same percentage share the PS4 had this month.
 
Sep 29, 2014
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Judging from how its selling on amazon and how bad the steam sales are there isn't much hope for SFV imo. Unless it sells a miracle amount on ps4 I doubt it will even make the top 10. Heck i doubt it will even sell 500k worldwide. I hope it does I love the game and what little is there is amazing. No other FG even comes close when it comes to the mechanics.
 
Apr 25, 2013
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Judging from how its selling on amazon and how bad the steam sales are there isn't much hope for SFV imo. Unless it sells a miracle amount on ps4 I doubt it will even make the top 10. Heck i doubt it will even sell 500k worldwide. I hope it does I love the game and what little is there is amazing. No other FG even comes close when it comes to the mechanics.
I think they only expect to ship 2 million WW before the end of their fiscal year. They will no doubt make that target.

I just suspect this game will have legs. It'll last the entire gen. And once the tournament season really picks up it'll see spikes in sales.

I also think they suspected a drop in sales. Which is why they are going with the service like approach to this game. There was a lot of pent up demand for SF4 because there hadn't been a release in like 10 years.
 
Mar 20, 2007
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A large gap in sales should be expected in February. PS4 is $50 cheaper than last year and the Xbox One has sold to almost everyone that would buy one for $349.

I am expecting a ~150k gap, or about the same percentage share the PS4 had this month.
Yep. Plus the Xbox One had no major exclusive retail releases this month while the PS4 had Street Fighter V.

I'm expecting at least 100k for the gap.
 
May 1, 2010
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A large gap in sales should be expected in February. PS4 is $50 cheaper than last year and the Xbox One has sold to almost everyone that would buy one for $349.

I am expecting a ~150k gap, or about the same percentage share the PS4 had this month.
Xbox One is basically $299 at most major retailers or come with free gift cards, games , headsets , controllers & so on.
 
Jan 20, 2008
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Current month Amazon update:
Fire Emblem #4 & 7
SFV #18

PS4 CoD bundle #16
Xbone GoW bundle #29
I'm thinking Amazon is going to be more deceptive then usual for SFV. That game had shipment delays which resulted in many cancellations I'd bet. I'm a Bison player and I had to give up that damn sexy costume just so I could get the game on launch day.
 
Feb 28, 2015
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A large gap in sales should be expected in February. PS4 is $50 cheaper than last year and the Xbox One has sold to almost everyone that would buy one for $349.

I am expecting a ~150k gap, or about the same percentage share the PS4 had this month.
Yep. Wouldn't be surprised if it hit 200k.

I think this year will be huge for PS4.
 
Aug 31, 2013
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No, I was talking about at the start of this gen. On the Bonus Round shortly after E3 2013, Jason Rubin remarked that leading up to the reveals, the industry was expecting Microsoft to win or even run away with this gen. I'm really interested in the logic behind that, given everything we know about ROTW and hoe thatbplayed into the way in which the PS3 was able to catch the Xbox 360 last generation.

It's not the same but along the same lines about Sony developer support being zero. From what I understand that was more true of the beginning of the PS3 gen.
Ah, right on. I missed that one, but I typically don't pay much attention to pundits and stuff.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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No, I was talking about at the start of this gen. On the Bonus Round shortly after E3 2013, Jason Rubin remarked that leading up to the reveals, the industry was expecting Microsoft to win or even run away with this gen. I'm really interested in the logic behind that, given everything we know about ROTW and hoe thatbplayed into the way in which the PS3 was able to catch the Xbox 360 last generation.

It's not the same but along the same lines about Sony developer support being zero. From what I understand that was more true of the beginning of the PS3 gen.
After 2010, the 360 and PS3 were kicking ass, but I think people have to realize that the US is extremely important to all these third party developers, and the 360 was absolutely kicking the PS3's ass in the region. At most, the difference between the PS3 and 360 in individual European countries was 1.5:1 (?), and in most of those countries, that difference didn't amount to much. The PS3 lead the 360 by like 1 million in Germany and France, while in the UK, the 360 lead closer to 3 million.

Everyone expected MS to capitalize on the success of the 360 and basically destroy the PS4 right out of the gate. They had the momentum in the US and had a fanbase in Europe and the ROTW to grow with a new Xbox, so, how could they not win??

Oh wait, we do know how.
 
Jul 7, 2015
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any game coming out on february will probably outsell SFV. Far cry primal will probably outsell it too.
So, who will win between Far Cry Primal and Fire Emblem Fates?

I think this battle will be way, WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY closer than people expect.

If Far Cry 4 has sold "only" 670,000 in 2 weeks of November, i think people should not expect much from Far Cry primal in one week of February.

I'm ok in both case since i love both series. :p