NPD Sales Results for May 2014 [Up1: Wii U Hardware]

Jan 21, 2008
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Imru’ al-Qays;117727040 said:
Is there any reason Gaf should continue to uphold our end of the bargain if NPD aren't upholding theirs?
GAF hasn't upheld their end of the bargain for years. ;)

I mean, leaks still happen, just not in the same quantity as before. The change in the leak format is not because GAF decided so, it's because of NPD threats got harsher and harsher. If it was only for GAF, any subscriber would have gone to any other site and posted all the list with hundreds, thousands of games the same way as before.
 
May 24, 2012
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GAF hasn't upheld their end of the bargain for years. ;)

I mean, leaks still happen, just not in the same quantity as before. The change in the leak format is not because GAF decided so, it's because of NPD threats got harsher and harsher. If it was only for GAF, any subscriber would have gone to any other site and posted all the list with hundreds, thousands of games the same way as before.
I mean really, a couple of sales leaks won't hurt NPD Group's business. Hardware leaks are especially harmless as they've been happening on GAF since at least 2004 and they haven't received any reduction in their business because of it. They're trivia for a bunch of gamers. I wish NPD Group would still provide them directly instead of giving us the finger, but whatever.

As long as the software leaks stay unreliable and random...NPD Group never has to worry about them. Now, if GAF consistently leaked a comprehensive set of EA's software sales + revenue figures for every title every month consistently (I believe GAF used to do this in like 2005 or so), a publisher / developer / retailer might decide to just rely on GAF leaks instead of paying for the data.

But nowadays? With the software leaks being so sporadic, vague, and random? They're harmless. And nobody on GAF ever leaks revenue figures for specific software titles anymore. But those revenue figures are important to businesses who pay for NPD.
 
Wasn't SonyCowboy supposed to be some kind of NPD liaison or something?

Whatever happened to him?
Yeah, if I remember correctly, when the NPD crackdown happened, he was supposed to be able to, through collective GAF requests, request data from them on specific games or series or such. I think that might have happened once or twice, and then it was just kind of "Here are the Top 10 All-Systems Software and the Hardware sales." And then eventually just the software, with having to wait for leaks and guesses on the hardware. And while we still get leaks on software (creamsugar and such), it's not anywhere close to what we used to get, with big lists of individual games and such.
 
Jul 28, 2012
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I agree. It's funny how the Xbox 360 now became the standard for first year sales.

PS4 sales this year haven't been amazing (as PS2 or Wii), but they haven't been bad either (as PS3 or XBO). Anyone saying either is, well, factually wrong. That much is obvious (and I'm currently inclined to agree the month over month slow down is just be the normal pattern of sales throughout the year). Where will it stop, right now, is impossible to predict accurately. It could not even beat the PS3 in the end, let alone reach 40 million.

Too soon to know; only time will tell etc.
Yes.

PS4 is not doing amazingly like the PS2 or Wii but also not doing badly like the PS3 or XBO.

Its doing well, staying ahead of 360, and producing decent monthly totals.

Whether it will do 40 million in the US is something that we can't say accurately right now.
 
Oct 25, 2012
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The 360 being the first HD system on the market surely helped a lot. I mean what better way was there to showcase your new 720p TV than getting a 360 and playing some PGR on it especially when the fight between HD DVD and Blu-ray hadn't really begun yet.
 

Jinfash

needs 2 extra inches
Oct 16, 2007
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Yeah, if I remember correctly, when the NPD crackdown happened, he was supposed to be able to, through collective GAF requests, request data from them on specific games or series or such. I think that might have happened once or twice, and then it was just kind of "Here are the Top 10 All-Systems Software and the Hardware sales." And then eventually just the software, with having to wait for leaks and guesses on the hardware. And while we still get leaks on software (creamsugar and such), it's not anywhere close to what we used to get, with big lists of individual games and such.
Alt account confirmed.
 
Oct 10, 2006
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so while out price matching Mario kart 8 I looked at the hardware stock(futureshop,Bestbuy/walsmart). tons of ps4 everywhere, lots of xbones with Kinect but far fewer without Kinect. not sure how many Microsoft shipped but it seems to be moving pretty well. saw a handful of people walking around with them.

the most interesting thing was the wiiu. Mario kart bundles still sold out much like last week however at future shop last week they had a mountain of dusty Mario luigi bundles sitting there, probably 30-40+ units. today they had 3. its possible they moved them but I looked and couldnt find them. best buy and walmart only had a few units as well and the games looked pretty picked through. I was shocked to say the least.

so now im curious, anyone here work in retail dealing with games? if so how are wii u sales these past few weeks?
So 300k for June everyone?
 
Nov 19, 2007
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Maybe from the super-crazy-leak-everything days of early GAF, but it's been better this month than some months in the past. We have pretty much every console nailed down except for the dead-and-buried ones like Ouya, PSP and PS2.
Be crazy if those days still existed, remember looking around the early NPD threads and seeing all the game sales down to 3 digit sales for a month was pretty crazy to read over.
 
Feb 28, 2014
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The issue with the new normal is fewer gamers to purchase games that cost even more to make than ever, with an increasingly narrow demographic focus and a much larger amount of focus testing as a result. I mean, that's already happening for the most part (it'll just worsen).
This. So much this. The real danger of the contracting hardware/software market for consoles is that it needs to support games with astronomically growing development and marketing budgets, meaning that each title is a huge risk and has to sell very high numbers indeed just to break even.

Without growth, we will reach a point where even very high sales cannot get to break-even point. That would break the back of the industry.

Some things like massive taxpayer incentives in Quebec help, but building your business on government help is a dangerous proposition, as the taxpayer can withdraw their support when a new government is elected in.

Wish I had a cookie-cutter solution to this.
 
Alt account confirmed.
Nah, I just lurked here for like 6 years before actually registering.

Are you reading this thread, NPD Group?

Something like this would go a long way towards minimising leaks / making GAF happy without having any material impact on your business:

And that was even after the NPD "lockdown."
It's sad how far things have fallen =(
 
Jun 2, 2013
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If you're referring to the audience Microsoft attracted with the Kinect, it probably won't reappear since Microsoft are taking steps to abandon that market what with unbundling Kinect.



Exactly right. PS3/360 were slow burners. PS3 because of the high pricing, 360 because it followed on from Xbox which was nowhere near a market leading console. Those barriers aren't there this time and I don't think PS4/X1 are likely to manage the same extended lifecycles. Instead they are likely to have more normal lifecycles and in that comparison with PS2/Wii they do not look to be doing great. That in itself isn't a problem because PS2/Wii set a really high standard, but when you combine that with escalating budgets there is a potential problem.

There's bad news across the entire spectrum of console/handheld gaming. Sony's handheld business has almost completely collapsed. Nintendo's handheld business has declined back to it's traditional core, maybe even that core declining to some extent. Nintendo's console business has collapsed to it's niche with even that niche declining to some extent. Xbox looks to be currently collapsing. Music games market disappeared. Mid tier developers collapsed. Japanese industry collapsing with even major franchises like Pro Evo and Gran Turismo seeing massive declines. Even the core AAA market isn't doing so hot what with CoD declining 30%, Titanfall underperforming and now Watchdogs although selling well, failing to ignite next-gen sales. Development costs are rising and games taking longer to produce leading to less games being released and less variety.

Where's the good news to counter all that? Where are the risks being taken that could create changes in fortune?
The PS4 will do great in the US.How great it will do I really don't know.I can see the ps4 selling 5-7 million every year in the US until about 2018 or 2019 most likely.
 
Oct 5, 2013
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Not in Europe. It was 500€ at launch over here. It didn't hinder the sales though.
I think it was £299 in the UK. I know I waited a few years until it was cheaper, but it was much more of a mainstream price than the PS3 at launch.

Interesting that the euro price was so high, but I guess it was a new currency and everything was being marked up at the timw.
 
Mar 22, 2009
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I agree. It's funny how the Xbox 360 now became the standard for first year sales.

PS4 sales this year haven't been amazing (as PS2 or Wii), but they haven't been bad either (as PS3 or XBO). Anyone saying either is, well, factually wrong. That much is obvious (and I'm currently inclined to agree the month over month slow down is just be the normal pattern of sales throughout the year). Where will it stop, right now, is impossible to predict accurately. It could not even beat the PS3 in the end, let alone reach 40 million.

Too soon to know; only time will tell etc.
I wasn't trying to argue that they were the standard, poor wording on my part, what I was arguing against was the comments of massive decline and substandard
 
May 21, 2014
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This. So much this. The real danger of the contracting hardware/software market for consoles is that it needs to support games with astronomically growing development and marketing budgets, meaning that each title is a huge risk and has to sell very high numbers indeed just to break even.

Without growth, we will reach a point where even very high sales cannot get to break-even point. That would break the back of the industry.

Some things like massive taxpayer incentives in Quebec help, but building your business on government help is a dangerous proposition, as the taxpayer can withdraw their support when a new government is elected in.

Wish I had a cookie-cutter solution to this.
We will never reach a point where very high sales cannot get to a break-even point. Developers and publishers will simply scale back budgets and the rate of graphical improvement will slow.
 
Sep 21, 2006
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I think it was £299 in the UK. I know I waited a few years until it was cheaper, but it was much more of a mainstream price than the PS3 at launch.

Interesting that the euro price was so high, but I guess it was a new currency and everything was being marked up at the timw.
2995FIM (503,7€) here in Finland, which is not that far from the PS3's price. I actually paid 539€ for the PS3 in November 2007, due to xmas sales bonus. The PS2 I bought at launch.

The euro was introduced here in 2002, over a year after the PS2 launch.
 
Sep 10, 2006
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Imru’ al-Qays;117748670 said:
We will never reach a point where very high sales cannot get to a break-even point. Developers and publishers will simply scale back budgets and the rate of graphical improvement will slow.
Problem is, the demographic pigeonhole that these major publishers are focusing the majority of their attention on (and rely on heavily) doesn't really accept that. Game "journalists" included. This is why outside demographics are important and why people are understating the contraction and how/where it really affects the market at large IMO.
 

heidern

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Jun 7, 2004
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Imru’ al-Qays;117748670 said:
We will never reach a point where very high sales cannot get to a break-even point. Developers and publishers will simply scale back budgets and the rate of graphical improvement will slow.
Scaled back budgets will likely lead to scaled back sales so even in that case break even point may not be possible. As projects that are unviable get cancelled, their sales will consolidate to the games that survive.
 
Feb 3, 2007
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Imru’ al-Qays;117748670 said:
Developers and publishers will simply scale back budgets and the rate of graphical improvement will slow.
The problem here is that publishers are locked into an escalating arms race with each other in the same genres for the same audiences iterating on the same formulas.

They can't risk gameplay innovations - they literally cannot risk alienating that target demographic by doing much different - so the only thing they have to compete against each other on is production costs; elaborate setpieces, overloading titles with content, getting bigname hollywood stars to guest star, cameos from other popular IP, etc.
 
Jun 28, 2013
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I don't understand how anyone ever liked the Fable series. Dear god. Just ghastly.
I liked it quite a bit. It's fun in an RPG-Lite sort of way. They weren't bad games on their own merits if you completely ignored every word out of Molyneux's mouth. Sure, they were never really AAA quality, but they were fun little B-tier games.

Or maybe I'm just a freak, since I like pretty much every RPG I've ever played, even Time & Eternity.
 
Sep 14, 2007
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Now that we have some updated Square-Enix figures we can update our ALL-TIME Square-Enix RPG USA graph. Color coded for console.
click to enlarge
Titles are in chronological order by system

* = last updated Feb 2009 so those figures are out of date

If anyone can help fill in the gaps please tell...I may have missed some updates.

Funny how FFVII 'only' sold 2.75 million copies and was considered an unbridled success that ushered in a new golden era of JRPGs.

Now 3.4 million copies sold in four weeks is considered a failure for Square Enix (read: Tomb Raider).
 
Jun 7, 2004
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Funny how FFVII 'only' sold 2.75 million copies and was considered an unbridled success that ushered in a new golden era of JRPGs.

Now 3.4 million copies sold in four weeks is considered a failure for Square Enix (read: Tomb Raider).
well 3.4m is worldwide sales. ffvii did something in excess of 7m units (i think it was 9m?)
 
Jul 28, 2012
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Funny how FFVII 'only' sold 2.75 million copies and was considered an unbridled success that ushered in a new golden era of JRPGs.

Now 3.4 million copies sold in four weeks is considered a failure for Square Enix (read: Tomb Raider).
you onyl have to look at that chart to see how much of an unprecedented success FF7 was to not only SE but jrpgs as well.
 
Oct 24, 2013
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I don't really understand why NPD isn't public, I understand why all the publishers and hardware makers wouldn't want it to be. It just seems so lame that we will only know exact numbers for games when they do really well via press releases. And wouldn't the publishers of those game already know how much they sold?


So NPD is just informing those willing to pay for the service? I know movie studios would like it the same way but I feel their layer of transparency adds legitimacy. I'm not sure if I can properly explain it but in IMO it makes the games industry seem rather juvenile.
 
Oct 30, 2011
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Next month will be a perfect example of this. Unless something very unexpected happens the PS4 should be expected to sell around 400k units next month. Given the proximity to launch and the wide availability of supply and weak competition, it could be even higher. People who don't take the time to realize this is a standard seasonal trend will likely jump on this as evidence of a clearly positive future. 300k units would be a significant failure in terms of expectation, yet people who want to support their view will likely again simply repeat something basically along the lines of "+50% MoM is a failure? LOL doom and gloom."
What in the world are you talking about? The PS4 should not be expected to sell 400k next month at all. It should be expected to sell around the same, if not less on a weekly basis, as it did the prior month, given the lack of major releases.

The proximity to launch is only relevant in the face of restricted supply. PS4 had substantially more supply than any previous console in history, and a lot of the sales were more upfront. Now that supply has exceeded demand, we already have an established baseline for demand...and in no way does that suggest it should sell 400K in a summer month.

It sounds like you're simply setting expectations for the PS4 next month up for failure so you can prove your delusional point that the PS4's numbers are somehow terrible.
 
Sep 7, 2011
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What in the world are you talking about? The PS4 should not be expected to sell 400k next month at all. It should be expected to sell around the same, if not less on a weekly basis, as it did the prior month, given the lack of major releases.

The proximity to launch is only relevant in the face of restricted supply. PS4 had substantially more supply than any previous console in history, and a lot of the sales were more upfront. Now that supply has exceeded demand, we already have an established baseline for demand...and in no way does that suggest it should sell 400K in a summer month.

It sounds like you're simply setting expectations for the PS4 next month up for failure so you can prove your delusional point that the PS4's numbers are somehow terrible.
Don't listen to anything dire says. He claimed that TLOU did not make Sony any money without any fucking evidence.
 
Jun 8, 2004
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May 31, 2013
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Ahhhh... The good old days. A whole 'nother lifetime ago...

And for those who don't remember, this is almost what single handedly caused the lockdown.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=128218

(That is the youtube video which I can no longer find anywhere).
Hmm aren't you the individual who was supposed to be giving Gaf the NPD info that NPD agreed to after the lockdown?

Why did the official information from NPD stop coming?
 
Jan 6, 2014
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Hmm aren't you the individual who was supposed to be giving Gaf the NPD info that NPD agreed to after the lockdown?

Why did the official information from NPD stop coming?
A bit odd that SonyCowboy shows up on the same page they are mentioned, when SonyCowboy hasn't made a post at all in 20 days, let alone any posts in this thread. I wonder who you are in this lifetime, SonyCowboy. ;)
 
Maitiú;117788027 said:
A bit odd that SonyCowboy shows up on the same page they are mentioned, when SonyCowboy hasn't made a post at all in 20 days, let alone any posts in this thread. I wonder who you are in this lifetime, SonyCowboy. ;)
Some people periodically search for instances of their username.
Other than this thread, his username has only been mentioned in 3 other threads this year.
 
May 31, 2013
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You're slipping, GAF. This was only the 4th most successful NPD thread of all time.

Top 10 NPD threads by amount of posts:

1) March 2014 - 7,109 posts, 900,253 views -> ~ 126 views per post
2) November 2013 - 5,349 posts, 608,308 views -> ~ 114 views per post
3) January 2013 - 4,592 posts, 365,992 views -> ~ 80 views per post
4) May 2014 - 3,897 posts, 550,058 views -> ~ 141 views per post
5) April 2014 - 3,896 posts, 501,384 views -> ~ 129 views per post
6) January 2014 - 3,835 posts, 450,018 views -> ~ 117 views per post
7) November 2010 - 3,563 posts, 231,820 views -> ~ 65 views per post
8) April 2008 - 3,517 posts, 263,669 views -> ~ 75 views per post
9) November 2008 - 3,450 posts, 327,426 views -> ~ 95 views per post
10) December 2013 - 3,432 posts, 403,590 views -> ~ 118 views per post
Updated. Also interesting to note that this thread appears to have the highest amount of lurking [views/post] out of the Top 10 NPD threads. Curious if there's a correlation there with perhaps lack of PR announcements
 
Nov 13, 2011
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NPD's watchful eye is why it's preferable that people don't pull the numbers from the thread and post them on twitter.
I agree. It's funny how the Xbox 360 now became the standard for first year sales.

PS4 sales this year haven't been amazing (as PS2 or Wii), but they haven't been bad either (as PS3 or XBO). Anyone saying either is, well, factually wrong. That much is obvious (and I'm currently inclined to agree the month over month slow down is just be the normal pattern of sales throughout the year). Where will it stop, right now, is impossible to predict accurately. It could not even beat the PS3 in the end, let alone reach 40 million.

Too soon to know; only time will tell etc.
I don't think the 360 is the standard, it's just another point of reference. The PS2 is also a point of reference.

The PS4 falls somewhere in between right now, as you note. Which shouldn't be a massive surprise, as it's more expensive than the latter by a fair amount but being adopted more quickly than the former partly due to supply. Outside of launch the XBO has performed something like the PS3, although slightly better. Which again shouldn't be a massive surprise as it's a fair bit less expensive.

But yes, it will be a long while before we can gain any concrete feel on where they'll end up. Something disruptive could come along in 6 months and doom us all. It's just interesting to discuss. Will there be a late cycle adoption, if people think not, then why not?
If you're referring to the audience Microsoft attracted with the Kinect, it probably won't reappear since Microsoft are taking steps to abandon that market what with unbundling Kinect.
This is under the premise that the back-end of the 360's cycle was because of a motion control camera entirely in and of itself, as opposed to because of a value proposition more in tune with that segment of the market, which included Kinect and relevant software, and the creation of a more family friendly brand. Kinect and Kinect 2.0 in themselves aren't value, they're just features.

It's worth noting that the 360's late market upswing actually began with the introduction of the 360S and then was elevated much further because of a repositioning of the entire system towards families.

I'm not sure how unbundling a feature now, materially impacts whether the late adopting market will come back in 2-3 years time, (on the false premise that a bundle doesn't exist) at a compelling price point later. Does one take that the only thing that can hold these consumers attention is swinging their arms, was the EyeToy what the late market PS2 adopters were buying the system for?
 

heidern

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Jun 7, 2004
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I'm not sure how unbundling a feature now, materially impacts whether the late adopting market will come back in 2-3 years time, (on the false premise that a bundle doesn't exist) at a compelling price point later. Does one take that the only thing that can hold these consumers attention is swinging their arms, was the EyeToy what the late market PS2 adopters were buying the system for?
Kinect was an important part of their strategy with Xbox and Microsoft gave it a big push. It got a fair bit of mainstream exposure. With weak X1 sales and now unbundling Kinect, Microsoft are basically admitting Kinect is a failure and they are admitting they are giving up on it. No one's going to take it seriously, developers won't target it and the media are not going to give serious coverage to anything Kinect. I don't see them getting momentum with Kinect again on X1.

It doesn't make it impossible to get that late adopting market but it does make it more difficult. Another point though is that if Microsoft don't cater to that late adopting audience because they are busy targeting the core audience with X1 they could lose that audience. They might lose some of it to tablets anyway. Combine that with less SKUs because of higher development costs and there's a lot of challenges to getting that late adopting market to jump in again with the X1. Sony might have a better shot at it this gen but again they face those same challenges.
 
Feb 3, 2007
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This is under the premise that the back-end of the 360's cycle was because of a motion control camera entirely in and of itself, as opposed to because of a value proposition more in tune with that segment of the market, which included Kinect and relevant software, and the creation of a more family friendly brand. Kinect and Kinect 2.0 in themselves aren't value, they're just features.
Let's not forget that Kinect came with a half a billion dollars marketing campaign.

If you're spending that much money on marketing, you'd better believe you want to see an uptick on sales.
 
Aug 18, 2007
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What in the world are you talking about? The PS4 should not be expected to sell 400k next month at all. It should be expected to sell around the same, if not less on a weekly basis, as it did the prior month, given the lack of major releases.

The proximity to launch is only relevant in the face of restricted supply. PS4 had substantially more supply than any previous console in history, and a lot of the sales were more upfront. Now that supply has exceeded demand, we already have an established baseline for demand...and in no way does that suggest it should sell 400K in a summer month.

It sounds like you're simply setting expectations for the PS4 next month up for failure so you can prove your delusional point that the PS4's numbers are somehow terrible.
The thing that frustrates me here is that you have all the tools you need to verify or refute my statement at your disposal. I make a lot of comments that actually require thinking, critical analysis and more than a first level analysis. This ain't one of 'em. Seriously click on that neogaf symbol, click the sales archive button, click NPD and then start checking out standard seasonal trends - particularly May-June trends. It would have taken you less time to verify that I am correct than it did to write your post exposing your self willed ignorance!

The system seller isn't exactly a myth since a few franchises do tend to result in an uptick in sales, but they're so rare as to be practically irrelevant. Historical trends on the other hand absolutely drive the standard of sales. Now I'm sure this is obvious to you if we were talking about the holiday uptick, yet you somehow think it's reasonable to then treat the other 9 months of the year as completely random and more or less equal? Of course not.

June is invariably a big month where 50-100% gains are typical regardless of what the big-thing-of-the-month happens to be. The reason I'd speculate for the uptick is that it's the end of the school year in many US schools. It should help start to give the first taste of data on the health of the console industry outside that's going to be driven primarily by people outside of early adopter/enthusiast types.