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[TheRagnCajun]

I will be impressed if PS4 sales are >200k in June. It's a 5-week month but the PS4 sales were elevated in May by the release of Watch Dogs. As for XBone, anything >150k will be a "win" for MSFT.

You could be right about PS4. In any case, this talk about 50% m.o.m. is crazy talk. Past success does not determine future performance. I hope Dire doesn't manage his own investment portfolio.

I'm setting the bar for Xbone at 190-200k, because May was so terrible. If May was bad because of the sku announcement, then presumably those customers will buy in June. So in order for both months to average out to April's performance, its 190k. Anything above that is an actual bump, and not just 'deferred May purchases'.

 

[Lefein]

In my opinion you guys are doing way too much to humor this guy. There's NOTHING valid that would make 300k the expected target here for PS4 in June, let alone 400k. NOTHING. We don't need to do any of this to determine that.

Don't need to get caught up in the weeds with this statistical analysis when what he's saying is absurd on its face to begin with.

I would say that is definitely a safe assumption. One must also consider that the presales of the White PS4 bundle may also cut into the typical unit sales for the month since people may decide to wait til September to get that rather than order the plain black one.

The flip-side of that coin being, September will likely be a very good month for the PS4 due to the introduction of the new SKU.

 

[QaaQer]

I don't understand how anyone ever liked the Fable series. Dear god. Just ghastly.

fart jokes go along way in elementary school.

 

[SwiftDeath]

In my opinion you guys are doing way too much to humor this guy. There's NOTHING valid that would make 300k the expected target here for PS4 in June, let alone 400k. NOTHING. We don't need to do any of this to determine that.

Don't need to get caught up in the weeds with this statistical analysis when what he's saying is absurd on its face to begin with.

Hmm after a certain point I was hopeful we'd see some numbers and analysis by Dire that showed how he got to that 50% - 100% increase MOM from May to June as the general increase because the numbers I've seen don't suggest that at all. Alas though the topic has run it's course so I'll leave it at that.

As per PS4's June sales, I'm stuck on the notion of whether or not Watch Dogs had a significant impact on PS4 sales or not. Sales per week is slightly down actually from April to May for PS4 but if memory serves May is supposed to be down 10% to 15%? If that is true then Watch Dogs could've made up the downturn and kept PS4 relatively flat.

So assuming PS4 continues it's weekly sales from May, it'd have ~ 246k sales in June. If Watch Dogs had that positive effect I mentioned in May but doesn't in June then maybe 222k is possible. If the positive Watch Dogs effect does exist and continues then maybe something like 275k is more possible?

For my predictions I'll probably wager something like 250k and be done with it. I don't want to be too optimistic on PS4 as June doesn't seem to hold any worthwhile releases for the general public. But yeah 300k - 400k seems incredibly unrealistic based on the numbers at play

 

[Square2015]

I mean really, a couple of sales leaks won't hurt NPD Group's business. Hardware leaks are especially harmless as they've been happening on GAF since at least 2004 and they haven't received any reduction in their business because of it. They're trivia for a bunch of gamers. I wish NPD Group would still provide them directly instead of giving us the finger, but whatever.

As long as the software leaks stay unreliable and random...NPD Group never has to worry about them. Now, if GAF consistently leaked a comprehensive set of EA's software sales + revenue figures for every title every month consistently (I believe GAF used to do this in like 2005 or so), a publisher / developer / retailer might decide to just rely on GAF leaks instead of paying for the data.

But nowadays? With the software leaks being so sporadic, vague, and random? They're harmless. And nobody on GAF ever leaks revenue figures for specific software titles anymore. But those revenue figures are important to businesses who pay for NPD.

Right on.

Slightly off topic but why does NPD keep such confidentiality with data from twenty plus years ago, they admit the data was less reliable then but would that REALLY hurt their business practices today??

I know professors who are sitting on complete NPD data for 1993, 1994 and they are afraid to share ANY of the figures, even MoM HW percentage changes.
Even NCL in Japan is sitting on NPD data back to the '80s and wouldnt mind sharing with their shareholders if it were not for NPD confidentiality of their ancient data...would their business really be hurt if just a little bit of that were shared? ...Like monthly HW sales...?

You would think as much time has gone by someone would share sales data from the NES days by now... a few yrs ago complete SW and HW was shared for the Atari 7800 on the internet....when are we going to see 8 and 16-bit sales data?

Who wouldn't be interested in seeing the month to month unit sales of Genesis vs SNES? What's the harm there?

 

[mo60]

Hmm after a certain point I was hopeful we'd see some numbers and analysis by Dire that showed how he got to that 50% - 100% increase MOM from May to June as the general increase because the numbers I've seen don't suggest that at all. Alas though the topic has run it's course so I'll leave it at that.

As per PS4's June sales, I'm stuck on the notion of whether or not Watch Dogs had a significant impact on PS4 sales or not. Sales per week is slightly down actually from April to May for PS4 but if memory serves May is supposed to be down 10% to 15%? If that is true then Watch Dogs could've made up the downturn and kept PS4 relatively flat.

So assuming PS4 continues it's weekly sales from May, it'd have ~ 246k sales in June. If Watch Dogs had that positive effect I mentioned in May but doesn't in June then maybe 222k is possible. If the positive Watch Dogs effect does exist and continues then maybe something like 275k is more possible?

For my predictions I'll probably wager something like 250k and be done with it. I don't want to be too optimistic on PS4 as June doesn't seem to hold any worthwhile releases for the general public. But yeah 300k - 400k seems incredibly unrealistic based on the numbers at play

I can see the ps4 selling about 20k-40k more than May because of E3 and because of the increase in the number of tracking weeks in June, but it won't sell anywere near 250k next month.300k is impossible for the PS4 in June even in it's first year.I could also see the ps4 being flat vs May or selling worse than May.

 

[heidern]

Had sales substantially increased when Titanfall hit then Microsoft would have stated that Titanfall resulted in a significant sales spike. It's what everyone expected. Had it happened you'd be here wanting to discount it.

Titanfall did increase sales. You can see the weak sales in January and then the big drop in sales in April.

I'm setting the bar for Xbone at 190-200k, because May was so terrible.

Without the Kinect unbundling the X1 was headed for sub 100K in May having only been 115K in April. In fact two weeks of sales were before the announcement. I'm not sure how much of an effect it had on sales since it isn't a pure price cut but a scaled back SKU. I'd guess only 10-20K worth of sales were lost/delayed. Watchdogs may also have spiked sales the last week.

So I'd estimate for June you're looking at 15-20K a week + delayed purchases + increase because of the cheaper SKU + any continued boost by Watchdogs. That's most likely between 100-150K.

 

[Square2015]

Not that I have data for it, but you are missing Brain Lord on the SNES.

Brain Lord 43,000

Isn't Brain Lord more of a Zelda-esque adventurer?

 

[Aquamarine]

Is this thread dead? Good. Time for some relative market highlights:


1) Watch_Dogs = 1.3 million units sold, close to 20% of total software units and close to 30% of total software revenues...more than than the majority of the Top 10 combined.

2) Ubisoft had a ridiculous 31% marketshare of total publisher revenues

3) XBO + PS4 = 43% of software sales in May

4) New releases = 50% of revenue this month, first May in DECADES that it's been so high

5) This is the very first month where PS4 software > PS3 software

6) First month in quite a while where Nintendo has YOY console software growth...for example, an unprecedented 57% of Nintendo 1st-party software sales came from the Wii U

7) Total industry = +52% YOY in May
$586 million

8) Total hardware ecosystem = +95% YOY in May
$187 million

9) Total software ecosystem (excluding PC) = +57% YOY in May
$274 million

10) Total software ecosystem (including PC)
$284 million

11) Total console software ecosystem = +74% YOY in May
$247 million

12) Sony console software ecosystem = +145% YOY in May
(47% marketshare)

13) Microsoft console software ecosystem = +36% YOY in May
(39% marketshare)

14) Nintendo console software ecosystem = +52% YOY in May
(14% marketshare)

 

[Welfare]

I don't know if this can be given out, but what % did the Titanfall bundle have out of the XB1? If I remember correctly, ~50% of Xbox Ones in April were the bundle.

 

[kekke]

Titanfall did increase sales. You can see the weak sales in January and then the big drop in sales in April
.

Exactly, I see so many saying that Titanfall wasn't "systemseller" but it's pretty clear that Xbox one sales would have been even worse without it. It didn't push One ahead of PS4,it just kept salesgap bit smaller.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

3) XBO + PS4 = 43% of software sales in May

4) New releases = 50% of revenue this month, first May in DECADES that it's been so high

5) This is the very first month where PS4 software > PS3 software

I think the above are worth considering when people say "80% of sales were on next gen, time to kill off cross gen titles!"

 

[SwiftDeath]

Oooh some good tidbits in there. Thanks Aqua

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Is this thread dead? Good. Time for some relative market highlights:


1) Watch_Dogs = 1.3 million units sold, close to 20% of total software units and close to 30% of total software revenues...more than than the majority of the Top 10 combined.

2) Ubisoft had a ridiculous 31% marketshare of total publisher revenues

3) XBO + PS4 = 43% of software sales in May

4) New releases = 50% of revenue this month, first May in DECADES that it's been so high

5) This is the very first month where PS4 software > PS3 software

6) First month in quite a while where Nintendo has YOY console software growth...for example, an unprecedented 57% of Nintendo 1st-party software sales came from the Wii U

7) Total industry = +52% YOY in May
$586 million

8) Total hardware ecosystem = +95% YOY in May
$187 million

9) Total software ecosystem (excluding PC) = +57% YOY in May
$274 million

10) Total software ecosystem (including PC)
$284 million

11) Total console software ecosystem = +74% YOY in May
$247 million

12) Sony console software ecosystem = +145% YOY in May
(47% marketshare)

13) Microsoft console software ecosystem = +36% YOY in May
(39% marketshare)

14) Nintendo console software ecosystem = +52% YOY in May
(14% marketshare)

Sony has already taken the majority of software sales in US as well. Presumably Watch Dogs but I did not expect PS3+PS4 to be ahead of XB1+360.

 

[Orthogonal]

I think the above are worth considering when people say "80% of sales were on next gen, time to kill off cross gen titles!"

That is not quite an apples to apples comparison. It was much higher on current gen for all new releases in May. I.e. Watch Dogs, Wolfenstein. However, the large install base of last Gen is still picking up considerable units for games in their long tail which would be expected. Current gen sales plummet much more quickly at the moment after initial release.

It would be worth revisiting the new releases after another month or two to see if last Gen closes the gap a bit, but for day 1 sales, it appears last Gen is dwarfed which is why publishers are on notice for future cross-gen releases.

 

[pieatorium]

Is this thread dead? Good. Time for some relative market highlights:

thanks Aqua

Just looking back to some old npd thread specifically 2007 which seems to be the one that gets most compared

Console software may 2007 was $274m (2014 $247m)
Console Hardware $221m (2014 $187m)
Total industry $815m (2014 $586m)

do you happen to have a comparison between accessories 2007 and 2014

 

[shinra-bansho]

XBO + PS4 = 43% of (all?) software on 6M systems.

9) - 11) = $27M
3DS + PSV <10% of software on 14M systems.

 

[AniHawk]

XBO + PS4 = 43% of (all?) software on 6M systems.

pretty impressive that about 21% of all software sales came from xbo+ps4 watch_dogs, roughly half of those sales.

 

[Game Guru]

That is not quite an apples to apples comparison. It was much higher on current gen for all new releases in May. I.e. Watch Dogs, Wolfenstein. However, the large install base of last Gen is still picking up considerable units for games in their long tail which would be expected. Current gen sales plummet much more quickly at the moment after initial release.

It would be worth revisiting the new releases after another month or two to see if last Gen closes the gap a bit, but for day 1 sales, it appears last Gen is dwarfed which is why publishers are on notice for future cross-gen releases.

Well, that should have been expected... the people who buy games Day 1 are logically going to buy their console Day 1. The people who wait for games to lower in price will probably wait until the current-gen consoles have enough games, have a game they truly want, and/or are lower in price.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Is this thread dead? Good. Time for some relative market highlights:

4) New releases = 50% of revenue this month, first May in DECADES that it's been so high

Awesome to see =)

6) First month in quite a while where Nintendo has YOY console software growth...for example, an unprecedented 57% of Nintendo 1st-party software sales came from the Wii U
I thought Nintendo was already up 90% YoY on console software for the year so far? I was pretty sure Wii U software sales was much worse all of last year (except maybe March w/ Lego City and stuff), including the early months of the year. Was that not the case?

Thanks for all the info Aqua! Had a question above.

Also it seems like the general sell-out of MK8 Wii U bundles continues? At least GameStop, Best Buy and Toys R' Us seem to indicate that online (I only found 1 store w/ limited stock in all my searches across the 3 sites). Not sure what to think about it except sell out is better than not selling out haha.

 

[Aquamarine]

I thought Nintendo was already up 90% YoY on console software for the year so far? I was pretty sure Wii U software sales was much worse all of last year (except maybe March w/ Lego City and stuff), including the early months of the year. Was that not the case?

You have to remember that this is combining the Wii + Wii U. Whatever gains Wii U might make tend to get offset by the close-to-death Wii.
.
For example, the Nintendo console software ecosystem (Wii + Wii U) is down -28% year-to-date.

This trend extends to hardware as well. Last year, Wii hardware was actually outselling Wii U hardware in all of its early months (besides November 2012, the first month Wii U outsold the Wii was September 2013). That's no longer the case this year.

Thanks for all the info Aqua! Had a question above.

Also it seems like the general sell-out of MK8 Wii U bundles continues? At least GameStop, Best Buy and Toys R' Us seem to indicate that online (I only found 1 store w/ limited stock in all my searches across the 3 sites). Not sure what to think about it except sell out is better than not selling out haha.

I would imagine that Nintendo didn't allocate all that much stock to the Mario Kart 8 bundle. As we saw this month, the bundle was only 6.6% of total MK8 sales.

Maybe its popularity caught them by surprise and they're scrambling to restock? Or maybe the bundle is getting gradually phased in so Nintendo can try and sell-through the existing inventory of other SKUs? There are a variety of possibilities to explain the continual MK8 Wii U bundle sellout...I don't think it's necessarily due to a ridiculous upswing in sales.

It would be good to get Wii U retail impressions from Abdiel when the NPD Predictions thread goes up in a week and a half.

 

[terrisus]

Now that we have some updated Square-Enix figures we can update our ALL-TIME Square-Enix RPG USA graph. Color coded for console.
click to enlarge
Titles are in chronological order by system

* = last updated Feb 2009 so those figures are out of date

If anyone can help fill in the gaps please tell...I may have missed some updates.

Man, how did I miss this...

Some of those numbers... I mean...
I knew they were low... But... Yikes.

 

[AniHawk]

I would imagine that Nintendo didn't allocate all that much stock to the Mario Kart 8 bundle. As we saw this month, the bundle was only 6.6% of total MK8 sales.

Maybe its popularity caught them by surprise and they're scrambling to restock? Or maybe the bundle is getting gradually phased in so Nintendo can try and sell-through the existing inventory of other SKUs? There are a variety of possibilities to explain the continual MK8 Wii bundle sellout...I don't necessarily think it's due to a ridiculous upswing in sales.

they also could have had a hard time convincing retailers to take on mario kart 8 bundles when there were so many other wii us still sitting on shelves. i'm sure nintendo would be wanting to make as many of these things get out into the world as possible.

 

[ZSaberLink]

they also could have had a hard time convincing retailers to take on mario kart 8 bundles when there were so many other wii us still sitting on shelves. i'm sure nintendo would be wanting to make as many of these things get out into the world as possible.

Initially that's likely the case, but if you had let's say 2 weeks of it selling out, don't you think they'd take more for the third for example?

You have to remember that this is combining the Wii + Wii U. Whatever gains Wii U might make tend to get offset by the close-to-death Wii.
.
For example, the Nintendo console software ecosystem (Wii + Wii U) is down -28% year-to-date.

This trend extends to hardware as well. Last year, Wii hardware was actually outselling Wii U hardware in all of its early months (besides November 2012, the first month Wii U outsold the Wii was September 2013). That's no longer the case this year.

Ah ok. Thanks for the explanation!

I would imagine that Nintendo didn't allocate all that much stock to the Mario Kart 8 bundle. As we saw this month, the bundle was only 6.6% of total MK8 sales.

Maybe its popularity caught them by surprise and they're scrambling to restock? Or maybe the bundle is getting gradually phased in so Nintendo can try and sell-through the existing inventory of other SKUs? There are a variety of possibilities to explain the continual MK8 Wii U bundle sellout...I don't think it's necessarily due to a ridiculous upswing in sales.

It would be good to get Wii U retail impressions from Abdiel when the NPD Predictions thread goes up in a week and a half.

I'm unfamiliar with Abdiel. Does he have some insight into retailers or something?

Also, I'm not sure what I was thinking was a ridiculous upswing in sales per se. If the MK8 bundle in 2 days was 25K units sold 25K in the US, is it that far of a stretch that potentially the Wii U sold like 20K thanks to the bundle on good weeks? I realize it could be a stock issue, but you'd think part of the reason for the MK8 free game deal is to get new folks to buy the system. Do you think we might get more MK8 details with the upcoming investors meeting? It's this Friday right?

 

[small44]

I think you can make an argument that the Kinect is attached too expensive hardware at the moment. The original Kinect sold well because there was millions of families who already had a 360 in their homes, and the Kinect promised that more family members would be able to use it, not just the son or Dad who loved to player shooters on it.

With the XB1, you're asking them to buy a new system that is $500, or $400 and then buy the Kinect 2.0 separately for $100+. That is a daunting task, to ask for families, or anyone to do.

If it is possible, I'd say get the Kinect 2.0 to work on the original 360 and PCs, and try to get that sucker into as many homes as possible. Hell, just sell the Kinect 2.0 as an upgrade to your existing Kinect, and see what happens.

I just think casual are happy with Kinect 1 so they don't feel the need to get a X1 with Kinect 2

 

[funkystudent]

That Square chart is pretty damn cool.


I did not know Kingdom hearts was that big

 

[LOCK]

Thanks for all the info Aqua! Had a question above.

Also it seems like the general sell-out of MK8 Wii U bundles continues? At least GameStop, Best Buy and Toys R' Us seem to indicate that online (I only found 1 store w/ limited stock in all my searches across the 3 sites). Not sure what to think about it except sell out is better than not selling out haha.

Actually I've asked a few people I know what's going on with the MK8 bundle:

Walmart - Continues to get regular shipments of MK8 bundle
Bestbuy - Got restocked once, main unit is the M&L bundle
Gamestop - Got restocked once, main unit is the Zelda bundle

Target is probably the same are Walmart since Nintendo has a close relationship with them right now.

I expect the MK8 bundle is selling out faster than Nintendo thought, and they have to weight how to best take advantage of their limited stock right now.

 

[Wynnebeck]

Is this thread dead? Good. Time for some relative market highlights:

12) Sony console software ecosystem = +145% YOY in May
(47% marketshare)

13) Microsoft console software ecosystem = +36% YOY in May
(39% marketshare)

14) Nintendo console software ecosystem = +52% YOY in May
(14% marketshare)

Good grief. Such a turnaround for Sony and MS. Is it feasible that Sony could possibly snatch more marketshare from MS and Nintendo?

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

pretty impressive that about 21% of all software sales came from xbo+ps4 watch_dogs, roughly half of those sales.

Yeah. There's a ton of pent-up demand, it looks like. I can't see Watch Dogs performing this well if it had any competition.

High hopes for the fall.

 

[Sharpeye]

Good grief. Such a turnaround for Sony and MS. Is it feasible that Sony could possibly snatch more marketshare from MS and Nintendo?

Well Sony is basically dominating MS and Nintendo in Europe as evident of certain weeks in Germany where Xbone fails to chart one game against PS4's 8-10. As for the States, the gap is getting bigger and if MS fails to catch up to Sony in the holidays then the Ps4 will gobble up more market share in the months ahead with the Xbox struggling like it is now.

 

[GoofsterStud]

Good grief. Such a turnaround for Sony and MS. Is it feasible that Sony could possibly snatch more marketshare from MS and Nintendo?

Yes. The bigger the userbase, the more friends of that userbase are likely to join. The bigger userbase becomes the "cool" thing.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Yes. The bigger the userbase, the more friends of that userbase are likely to join. The bigger userbase becomes the "cool" thing.

What was the marketshare breakdown of the fifth and sixth generations while all the consoles were still in production? I know that by the end of their lifecycles the PS1 and PS2 had something like 70% marketshare, but they racked up a lot of that margin after the competition had been discontinued.

I'm wondering if it's possible the PS4's dominance this generation is comparable to PS1 or PS2 levels of dominance early in their lifecycles.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Actually I've asked a few people I know what's going on with the MK8 bundle:

Walmart - Continues to get regular shipments of MK8 bundle
Bestbuy - Got restocked once, main unit is the M&L bundle
Gamestop - Got restocked once, main unit is the Zelda bundle

Target is probably the same are Walmart since Nintendo has a close relationship with them right now.

I expect the MK8 bundle is selling out faster than Nintendo thought, and they have to weight how to best take advantage of their limited stock right now.

Ah ok. I guess it's likely a limited stock issue. Thanks for the update!

 

[AniHawk]

Initially that's likely the case, but if you had let's say 2 weeks of it selling out, don't you think they'd take more for the third for example?

if you have an order and can only have made enough for that order, there's only so much you can do. reorders can take a bit to get off the ground if sales were initially that much higher than expected, especially with so many custom parts like the wheel and the remote. aside from time related to manufacturing, there's time spent shipping units, time spent assembly units, and then time spent getting those units to retailers.

 

[robjoh]

if you have an order and can only have made enough for that order, there's only so much you can do. reorders can take a bit to get off the ground if sales were initially that much higher than expected, especially with so many custom parts like the wheel and the remote. aside from time related to manufacturing, there's time spent shipping units, time spent assembly units, and then time spent getting those units to retailers.

A back of the envelope calculations might indicate what the problem is, some of my assumption might be totally wrong. If so please let me know.

I think Nintendo said that they would ship 3.5 million WiiU this year. Assume that most of that shipment will be focused on the important holiday season so for November and December alone maybe:
1 million WiiU to USA
1 million WiiU to PAL (to much?)
500k WiiU to Japan.

That leaves 1 million world wide for 10 months or 100k per month. So if Nintendo is selling 25k/week in USA for the moment that is 125k for June. I think Mario Kart temporary boosted WiiU to at least 40k for the whole of June in Japan. Say another 50k in EU.

If that is correct Nintendo need to ship around 200k world wide in June. Might be a problem if the industrial resources is not present to be able to produce that much. Especially if retail did not want to stock more WiiU when it was selling badly.

Of course all this depends on if the holiday numbers are even close to the truth. I think WiiU sold around 500k last year in Japan, but I have no idea of the sales in USA and EU.

 

[ZSaberLink]

A back of the envelope calculations might indicate what the problem is, some of my assumption might be totally wrong. If so please let me know.

I think Nintendo said that they would ship 3.5 million WiiU this year. Assume that most of that shipment will be focused on the important holiday season so for November and December alone maybe:
1 million WiiU to USA
1 million WiiU to PAL (to much?)
500k WiiU to Japan.

That leaves 1 million world wide for 10 months or 100k per month. So if Nintendo is selling 25k/week in USA for the moment that is 125k for June. I think Mario Kart temporary boosted WiiU to at least 40k for the whole of June in Japan. Say another 50k in EU.

If that is correct Nintendo need to ship around 200k world wide in June. Might be a problem if the industrial resources is not present to be able to produce that much. Especially if retail did not want to stock more WiiU when it was selling badly.

Of course all this depends on if the holiday numbers are even close to the truth. I think WiiU sold around 500k last year in Japan, but I have no idea of the sales in USA and EU.

Wii U sold about 700K in the US in Nov/December of last year (220K + 480K).

 

[Aquamarine]

Initially that's likely the case, but if you had let's say 2 weeks of it selling out, don't you think they'd take more for the third for example?




Ah ok. Thanks for the explanation!



I'm unfamiliar with Abdiel. Does he have some insight into retailers or something?

Also, I'm not sure what I was thinking was a ridiculous upswing in sales per se. If the MK8 bundle in 2 days was 25K units sold 25K in the US, is it that far of a stretch that potentially the Wii U sold like 20K thanks to the bundle on good weeks? I realize it could be a stock issue, but you'd think part of the reason for the MK8 free game deal is to get new folks to buy the system. Do you think we might get more MK8 details with the upcoming investors meeting? It's this Friday right?

Nintendo Co., Ltd.'s annual shareholder's meeting is Friday, June 27th at 10 AM JST.

That's the equivalent of Thursday, June 26th at 9 PM EDT.


I'm not going to comment on the actions of JP Morgan Chase, but I am definitely not voting for Mr. Iwata's re-election to the Board.


Potential information about MK8 will be given if it's asked in the Q&A section. It's definitely a possibility given MK8's notable initial impact on the Wii U.


Abdiel works for Best Buy and has access to their sales information. Because Best Buy retail sales comprise approximately 14% of NPD's POS data, his generalised retail insights are quite important for future NPD predictions in terms of channel checks / sampling.

 

[lightning2k3]

XBO + PS4 = 43% of (all?) software on 6M systems.
.

Is this units moved or dollar value of sales?

 

[Mpl90]

Amazon.com, PS4 v.s. One v.s. Wii U

As of 22:50 GMT

Mario KArt 8 ($48.67) - 3rd

PS4 ($399) - 10th

The Last of Us Remastered ($49.96) - 12th

Call of Duty: Ghosts
One ($19.99; sold by third party) - 15th
PS4 ($39.99) - 79th

Destiny
PS4 ($59.96) - 18th
One ($59.96) - 41st

Watch Dogs
PS4 ($52.96) - 28th (Tomodachi Life - $34.96 - is 26th)
One ($59.68) - 148th

Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag
One ($24.96; sold by third party) - 34th
PS4 (42.63) - 85th

FIFA 14
PS4 ($42.83; in stock on June 29th) - 37th
One ($44.96) - 98th

Super Mario 3D World ($49.81) - 42rd

Xbox One ($399) - 44th

PS4 + Destiny ($449.99) - 49th

Xbox One with Kinect + Titanfall ($499) - 51st

Forza Motorsport 5 ($24.99; sold by third party) - 54th

Battlefield 4
One ($29.99; sold by third party) - 57th
PS4 ($39.99) - 71st

Halo: The Master Chief Collection ($59.96) - 65th

Wii U Premium with NSMBU & NSLU ($314; sold by third party) - 79th

Chart for whole June so far

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-06/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar?tag=viglink129408-20

 

[prag16]

Mario Kart 8 beasting hard. Though I'm sure that sub $50 price tag is helping. Surprised it has stayed down at that price for so long, and actually trickling lower by a few cents every few days.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Chart for whole June so far

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-06/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar?tag=viglink129408-20

Mario Kart 8 actually outsold Watch Dogs on Amazon in May too which is surprising imo. While clearly Watch Dogs PS4 outsold it significantly outside of Amazon in May (thus the 600K+ vs. 352K), it's interesting to note.

 

[Aquamarine]

Also, I'm not sure what I was thinking was a ridiculous upswing in sales per se. If the MK8 bundle in 2 days was 25K units sold 25K in the US, is it that far of a stretch that potentially the Wii U sold like 20K thanks to the bundle on good weeks? I realize it could be a stock issue, but you'd think part of the reason for the MK8 free game deal is to get new folks to buy the system. Do you think we might get more MK8 details with the upcoming investors meeting? It's this Friday right?

It's very probable that MK8 will see the same kind of hardware + software performances in June as it did in May.

Hell, it would be a little worrying if MK8 didn't outperform May...


I'm just covering all the bases. You know, people who see the constant MK8 bundle stock problems as "Wii U will be the best selling console this month," or something like that.

 

[Tallshortman]

So are we expecting the new kinectless sku to push the xbox ahead or is there going to be a meltdown if it doesn't? (Actually there will be a meltdown no matter what happens) If this doesn't do it I'm not sure what else MS can do in the short to medium term to boost US sales above the PS4.

 

[SwiftDeath]

So are we expecting the new kinectless sku to push the xbox ahead or is there going to be a meltdown if it doesn't? (Actually there will be a meltdown no matter what happens) If this doesn't do it I'm not sure what else MS can do in the short to medium term to boost US sales above the PS4.

Honestly I was expecting it to be a strong toss-up between XB1 and PS4 for June with the kinectless SKU and the early announcement in May of it pushing sales into June but now I'm like 65/35 that PS4 takes June versus XB1 taking it.

Amazon June rankings aren't particularly impressive for the XB1 SKUs relatively and there was no mention in the PAL charts of a XB1 hardware boost due to the kinectless SKU

 

[Jomjom]

It's very probable that MK8 will see the same kind of hardware + software performances in June as it did in May.

Hell, it would be a little worrying if MK8 didn't outperform May...


I'm just covering all the bases. You know, people who see the constant MK8 bundle stock problems as "Wii U will be the best selling console this month," or something like that.

I think MK8 will do pretty well in June. Not only did people get the free digital game, there were a bunch of deals where you could get MK8 and trade it in for the same or more money than you paid for it, thereby keeping the digital game for free.

For instance you could get MK8 for about $30 at Target and then trade it to Best Buy for $42.

People on CAG and other deal sites have been buying 3 or more copies just to collect the CN codes.

 

[ZSaberLink]

It's very probable that MK8 will see the same kind of hardware + software performances in June as it did in May.

Hell, it would be a little worrying if MK8 didn't outperform May...


I'm just covering all the bases. You know, people who see the constant MK8 bundle stock problems as "Wii U will be the best selling console this month," or something like that.

It'd be worrying if MK8 didn't hit like 370K with bundles in June? Interesting. I personally just see the MK8 bundle stock problems at least as a good thing, and hopefully means it's the console's best non-holiday month easily (which shouldn't be too hard to do I'd hope). Thankfully the MK8 free game deal lasts until 7/31, so at the very least if people weren't able to buy it in June, they should be able to get the same deal in July.

 

[Richie]

Mario Kart 8 actually outsold Watch Dogs on Amazon in May too which is surprising imo. While clearly Watch Dogs PS4 outsold it significantly outside of Amazon in May (thus the 600K+ vs. 352K), it's interesting to note.

Makes me wonder what effect on sales Nintendo hardware could have if Amazon.com sold it themselves.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Amazon.com, PS4 v.s. One v.s. Wii U

As of 22:50 GMT


Chart for whole June so far

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-06/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar?tag=viglink129408-20

Clicked your link.

Um........none of those rankings match up to what I see at all.

 

[Aquamarine]

Oh wow, 4000 posts.

 

[Aquamarine]

It'd be worrying if MK8 didn't hit like 370K with bundles in June? Interesting. I personally just see the MK8 bundle stock problems at least as a good thing, and hopefully means it's the console's best non-holiday month easily (which shouldn't be too hard to do I'd hope). Thankfully the MK8 free game deal lasts until 7/31, so at the very least if people weren't able to buy it in June, they should be able to get the same deal in July.

I was mainly talking about the bundle with that comment.


But in terms of Mario Kart 8 June sales...

It's pretty safe to assume that 2 days of sales (in May) tracking isn't an accurate representation of the total launch demand, especially considering its viral nature throughout the month.

I think there might be a possibility we will see a phenomenon similar to a November -> December uptick given these unique circumstances.

Maybe something similar to this:

Mario Kart Double Dash, November 2003: 500-550K
Mario Kart Double Dash, December 2003: 700-750K

Mario Kart DS, November 2005: 200-250K
Mario Kart DS, December 2005: 400-450K

Mario Kart 8, May 2014 (2 days): 350-400K
Mario Kart 8, June 2014 (35 days): 450-500K

I'm not saying this will be the case, especially since Mario Kart Wii declined MOM after its short launch month, but it's a possibility.