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Official November 2007 NPD Preview Thread

sonycowboy

Member
Jun 8, 2004
12,214
4
0
New Jersey
A roundup of expectations for Thursday's NPD release. Many thanks to Wedbush Morgan and TheSimExchange for their participation. More info on theSimExchange's November preview can be found at: http://www.thesimexchange.com/research.php

Code:
[b]HW Expecations[/b]
	NeoGAF	   Pachter	TSE
NDS	1,253,96   1,350,000	1,300,000
WII	1,020,003  950,000	1,060,000
360	747,459	   750,000	728,000
PSP	560,081	   650,000	468,000
PS2	460,985	   485,000	
PS3	414,293	   420,000	410,000
GBA	163,363	   170,000
GAF Aggregate said:
HW
[NDS] 1,253,964; Expected Range = 750,000 to 1,800,000
[WII] 1,020,003; Expected Range = 750,000 to 1,350,000
[360] 747,459; Expected Range = 480,000 to 950,000
[PSP] 560,081; Expected Range = 252,000 to 880,000
[PS2] 460,985; Expected Range = 200,000 to 680,000
[PS3] 414,293; Expected Range = 230,000 to 600,000
[GBA] 163,363; Expected Range = 38,000 to 400,000

SW
GAF Averages:

1. WII Super Mario Galaxy - 945.1K
2. 360 Call of Duty 4 - 757.1K
3. 360 Assassin's Creed - 519.8K
4. 360 Halo 3 - 375.4K
5. 360 Guitar Hero III - 363.1K
6. PS2 Guitar Hero III - 360.0K
7. 360 Mass Effect - 330.8K
8. NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass - 281.4K
9. WII Guitar Hero III - 277.0K
10. PS3 Call of Duty 4 - 240.1K
11. WII Mario & Sonic Olympics - 232.4K
12. PS3 Assassin's Creed - 212.6K
13. WII Resident Evil: Umbrella - 201.4K
14. 360 Rock Band - 180.6K
15. NDS FFXII: Revenant Wings - 168.8K
16. PS3 Uncharted - 146.2K
17. WII Fire Emblem: Radiant - 99.0K
18. PSP MGS: Portable Ops+ - 95.7K
19. PSP Silent Hill Origins - 77.3K
20. PS3 Rock Band - 76.5K
Pachter said:
November 2007 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect +24% Sales Growth

We expect November U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, December 13. We forecast sales of $1 billion, +24% compared to last year’s $804 million.

Our estimate reflects $770 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS)and current generation software sales of $230 million. We estimate sell-through of 950,000 Wii, 750,000 Xbox 360 and 420,000 PS3 hardware systems. For purposes of comparison, The simExchange prediction market forecasts 1,060,000 Wii, 728,000 Xbox 360 and 410,000 PS3 hardware systems.

Sales growth over the last 12 months was a robust 21%, with last month up 39% on the strength of Guitar Hero III. Our forecast assumes PS2 software sales of $195 million, down 34% compared to last year and consistent with our full year projection for –32% (YTD through October is –24%).

All three console manufacturers announced very strong Thanksgiving week sales. It is important to note that November includes nine days of sales post-Thanksgiving, compared to only two days of sales last year, so software and hardware sell-through should be dramatically higher year-over-year. In addition, the Wii and PS3 had combined sales of 672,000 units in November 2006, and our forecast is over twice this figure, reflecting that both consoles should be in much larger supply this November.

We think that solid software sales growth will continue in December and well into 2008, as the holiday lineup includes high priced (and sold out) games like Guitar Hero III and Rock Band, and the post-holiday line-up is also quite strong. We recommend that investors accumulate Activision, Electronic Arts, GameStop, THQ, and Ubisoft shares at current levels.

For November, we expect the following revenue results:
o Activision -- $250 million, +94% y-o-y.
o Atari -- $8 million, -23% y-o-y.
o Electronic Arts -- $205 million, +59% y-o-y.
o Majesco -- $6 million, +4% y-o-y.
o Midway -- $7 million, -48% y-o-y.
o Take-Two -- $32 million, +7% y-o-y.
o THQ -- $52 million, -28% y-o-y.
o Ubisoft -- $36 million, +8% y-o-y.


We expect November sales to be driven by new releases Nintendo’s Super Mario Galaxy (Wii), Activision’s Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (360, PS3, PC, DS), Electronic Arts’ Rock Band (360, PS3) and Need for Speed ProStreet (PS3, 360, PS2, DS, Wii, PC), THQ’s WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2008 (PS3, PS2, 360, Wii, DS, PSP), and Ubisoft’s Assassin’s Creed (360, PS3). In addition, we expect continued strong sales of Activision’s Guitar Hero III, Electronic Arts’ Madden NFL 08 and Nintendo’s Wii Play and The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass.

Our forecasts for console hardware sales are as follows (The simExchange prediction market forecasts are provided for comparison):

WMS TSE*
Wii 950,000 1,060,000
PS3 420,000 410,000
Xbox 360 750,000 728,000
PS2 485,000 n/a
PSP 650,000 468,000
DS 1,350,000 1,300,000
GBA 170,000 n/a
*The simExchange prediction market forecasts used with permission.

The rate of PS2 software sales decline increased slightly last month (-29%) compared with -24% YTD through October. The degree of PS2 software sales decline over the next several months will likely be highly correlated to next generation console sales, with year-over-year increases in next generation consoles purchases likely to accelerate declining demand for current generation software. We have modeled a decline of -34% in November, and -45% for December (-32% for the full year).

Activision
Releases during November: 11/5 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (360, PS3, PC, DS), 11/6 World Series of Poker 2008 (DS, PSP), 11/8 Cabela's Big Game Hunter (360, PS2, Wii), 11/13 Monster Truck Jam (360, PS2, Wii, DS), 11/13 Soldier of Fortune: Pay Back (360, PS3, PC), 11/20 History Channel: Battle for the Pacific (PS2, PC, Wii, 360).

We estimate that Activision generated $250 million in sales for the month, +69% from last month and +94% compared to last November. We believe sales were led by Guitar Hero III selling 1.7 million units (on top of the 1.4 million sold last month). We also expect very strong sales of new release Call of Duty 4 selling 800,000 units. We expect solid sales of Tony Hawk’s Proving Ground, Bee Movie, along with catalog sales of Guitar Hero I and II, Spider-Man, and Transformers.

Atari
Releases during November: 11/13 Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 3 (PS2), 11/13 Jenga (DS), 11/20 Godzilla: Unleashed (PS2, DS).

We estimate that Atari generated $8 million in sales for the month, +385% from last month and -23% compared to last November. We believe new release Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 3 sold 150,000 units. We believe sales were led by catalog sales of Dungeons & Dragons, Test Drive Unlimited, and other Dragon Ball Z titles.

Electronic Arts
Releases during November: 11/2 FIFA Manager 08 (PC), 11/6 The Simpsons Game (DS), 11/13 Boogie (PS2, DS), 11/13 Crysis (PC), 11/13 Medal of Honor Heroes 2 (Wii, PSP), 11/13 Need for Speed ProStreet (PS3, 360, PS2, DS, Wii, PC), 11/13 Orcs & Elves (DS), 11/13 Sim City Societies (PC), 11/13 Smarty Pants (Wii), 11/19 Medal of Honor Airborne (PS3), 11/20 Rock Band (360, PS3).

We estimate that EA generated $205 million in sales for the month, +112% from last month and +59% compared to last November. We estimate sales were led by new release Rock Band selling 600,000 units (we note that this title and Crysis are both co-published titles). EA has stated that Rock Band has sold “hundreds of thousands” over the
Thanksgiving weekend which was “literally every box we made." We expect that The Simpsons Game along with its other sports titles led catalog sales.

Majesco Entertainment
Releases during November: 11/13 Cooking Mama 2: Dinner with Friends (DS).

We estimate that Majesco generated $6 million in sales for the month, +162% from last month and +4% compared to last November. We expect sales were led by new release Cooking Mama 2 selling 50,000 units. We expect its other recent releases, and other Cooking Mama (Wii, DS) games led sales.

Midway Games
Releases during November: 11/5 Aqua Teen Hunger Force Zombie Ninja Pro-Am (PS2), 11/12 Blacksite: Area 51 (360, PC), 11/12 Cruis'n (Wii), 11/12 Foster's Home for Imaginary Friends (DS), 11/12 Ultimate Mortal Kombat (DS), 11/19 Unreal Tournament III (PC), 11/27 Game Party (Wii).

We estimate that Midway generated $7 million in sales for the month, +115% from last month and -48% compared to last November. We believe new release Blacksite: Area 51 led sales with 40,000 units sold. We believe Stranglehold, Mortal Kombat games and a broad range of other recent releases led catalog sales.

Take-Two Interactive
Releases during November: 11/5 Dora the Explorer (DS), 11/5 Go, Diego, Go! (DS), 11/19 College Hoops 2K8 (PS3, PS2, 360).

We estimate that Take-Two generated $32 million in sales for the month, +32% from last month and +7% compared to last November. We believe new release College Hoops 2K8 sold 40,000 units. We expect Manhunt 2 sold 75,000 units in its second month of release (compared with 67,000 units last month). We expect Bioshock, Carnival Games, and NBA 2K8 led catalog sales.

THQ

Releases during November: 11/5 Bratz: 4 Real (DS), 11/5 Supreme Commander: Forged Alliance (PC), 11/12 Cars Mater-National (GBA, Wii), 11/13 WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2008 (PS3, PS2, 360, Wii, DS, PSP), 11/19 Avatar: The Burning Earth (360), 11/19 SpongeBob's Atlantis SquarePantis (Wii), 11/19 Warhammer 40,000: Squad Command (PSP).

We estimate that THQ generated $52 million in sales for the month, +203% from last month and -52% compared to last November. We believe new release WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2008 led sales with 500,000 units sold (up slightly from last year). We believe Conan, Juiced, along with Nickelodeon, Pixar and other WWE games led catalog sales.

Ubisoft Entertainment
Releases during November: 11/6 Blazing Angels 2: Secret Missions (PS3), 11/6 My French/Spanish Coach (DS), 11/6 My Word Coach (DS, Wii), 11/13 Assassin’s Creed (360, PS3), 11/13 Beowulf (360, PS3, PC), 11/13 Petz Catz/Dogz/Horsez 2 (DS, PS2, Wii), 11/13 Rayman Raving Rabbids 2 (DS, Wii), 11/14 America's Army: True Soldier (360), 11/19 CSI: Dark Motives (DS), 11/23 Hamsterz Life 2 (DS), 11/27 Cranium Kabookii (Wii).

We estimate that Ubisoft generated $36 million in sales for the month, +148% from last month and +8% compared to last November. We expect new release Assassin’s Creed sold 400,000 units. We expect Petz Catz/Dogz/Horsez 2 to have sold 150,000 units combined. We believe Naruto Rise of the Ninja, Rainbow Six: Vegas, GRAW 2, and Surf's Up led catalog sales along with other Tom Clancy games.
theSimExchange said:
Key Points

Video games to break record sales
PC Games continue to cannibalize each other
Assassin's Creed - the woes of new intellectual property
Rock Band - Too many hands in the cookie jar
Wii - Can it handle M-rated titles
Introduction

This report is intended to aid industry professionals and the press in drawing insight and discovering trends occurring in the video game industry through the use of the simExchange video game prediction market (www.thesimexchange.com), a data aggregation system in which gamers, developers, and industry investors trade virtual video game stocks and futures to predict how video game products will sell and how they will be critically received.

Results based on NPD data have consistently shown that The simExchange prediction market can predict results not only more accurately than traditional models and surveys, but also more quickly adjust forecasts based on industry and product news.

The simExchange's Market Predictions

US Hardware in November 2007Title Predicted unit sales
Xbox 360 728,000 units
PLAYSTATION 3 410,000 units
Wii 1,060,000 units
Nintendo DS 1,300,000 units
PlayStation Portable 468,000 units

US Software in November 2007
Title Predicted unit sales
Assassin's Creed (PS3) 272,000 units
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Xbox 360) 833,000 units
Crysis (PC) 66,000 units
Manhunt 2 (Wii) 46,000 units
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Wii) 242,000 units
Mass Effect (Xbox 360) 328,000 units
Rock Band (Xbox 360) 152,000 units
Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) 1,270,000 units
Unreal Tournament 3 (PC) 78,000 units

Hardware Sales

Continuing the trend over the last 6 months, the Wii is expected top the console charts with 1,060,000 units according to the trading on the prediction market. The Xbox 360, a close second, is forecast to sell 728,000 units, while at a distant third, again, is the PS3 at 410,000 units. On the portable side, the trend persists with the Nintendo DS selling 1,300,000 units and the PSP selling 468,000 units, according to the prediction market.

Consistently a distant third, the PS3 is beginning to close the gap with its closest rival, as the Xbox 360 is only expected to out sell the PS3 1.8-to-1 in November compared in to 3-to-1 in October. The prediction market upgraded the PS3 forecast after the initial reception of the new 40GB PS3 model and recent press releases indicating a strong Thanksgiving weekend.

Despite increasing PS3 sales, we do not expect any significant shift in PS3 market share in Sony’s favor until mid 2008. A shift will likely be the result of continued hardware price cuts and the release of several AAA titles such as Metal Gear Solid 4 and Grand Theft Auto IV—both of which is expected to be released near the half-way point of 2008. The PS3 is expected to gain market share as the prediction market is still expecting a close race in global lifetime sales with current expectations of 58 million units and 54 million units for the Xbox 360 and the PS3, respectively.

Despite increasing PS3 sales, we do not expect any significant shift in PS3 market share in Sony’s favor until mid 2008. A shift will likely be the result of continued hardware price cuts and the release of several AAA titles such as Metal Gear Solid 4 and Grand Theft Auto IV—both of which is expected to be released near the half-way point of 2008. The PS3 is expected to gain market share as the prediction market is still expecting a close race in global lifetime sales with current expectations of 58 million units and 54 million units for the Xbox 360 and the PS3, respectively.

Record Software Sales

The prediction market expects November’s software sales to be $1.15 billion which is a 42% increase over sales last year. These sales were driven by the continued success of Guitar Hero 3, Halo 3, and Zelda: Phantom Hourglass along with newly released titles such as Assassin’s Creed, Call of Duty 4, Mass Effect, Need for Speed, Super Mario Galaxy, and WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2008. The prediction market’s forecast on software sales will be the highest ever seen in the month of November and the first time November sales will break $1 billion.

Not to be outdone, December sales are expected by the prediction market to ring in $2.39 billion, which is a 38% increase year-over-year, another record-breaking month. Combining The NPD Group’s estimates in October, retailers will net over $4.04 billion in software sales this holiday quarter, a 39% increase year-over-year—a record as well.

Although consumer spending has slowed down this quarter with many retailers reporting disappointing results, video games are largely inelastic to consumer income. The market’s forecast for November and December confirms the belief that video games are a safe haven business in slower consumer spending environments.
 

dkeane

Member
Jan 9, 2005
4,563
0
1,415
Boston
Is there a reason nobody is predicting sales for Link's Crossbow Training? Did it come out too late or something? I think the game could get some crazy sales.
 
Oct 16, 2006
704
0
0
I think GAF is overshooting on some SW titles like AC, UC and U: DF. Anyway I never participate in SW prediction threads so what do I know....

EDIT:

studio810 said:
Is there a reason nobody is predicting sales for Link's Crossbow Training? Did it come out too late or something? I think the game could get some crazy sales.
I think the Zapper counts as an accesory?
 

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
Apr 16, 2007
2,616
0
1,085
Kirkland, WA
Draft said:
PC Games continue to cannibalize each other
Is that discussed further somewhere? I didn't see any explanation of that statement in the OP.
The only way I can interpret that statement is that AAA PC games are released too close to each other. But this is also true for console games this holiday. Looks like an excuse to me.
 

Paracelsus

Member
Jun 24, 2007
9,864
2,034
1,360
I'm new to this kind of thing...how reliable is that preview? I mean, error percentage-wise.
 

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
Apr 16, 2007
2,616
0
1,085
Kirkland, WA
Mojovonio said:
Nice increase.

I'm surprised Halo 3 isn't doing too well. Far below COD4.
Joke post?

How many copies did you expect a game that came out two months ago and already sold 3m (or so) sell to an installed base of 7m?
 

Mojovonio

Banned
Jun 21, 2006
11,485
0
0
Gadfly said:
Joke post?

How many copies did you expect a game that came out two months ago and already sold 3m (or so) sell to an installed base of 7m?
Yeah, that's true.

But I still, I expected more from the 360 flagship title.
 

Defuser

Member
Sep 23, 2006
22,391
1
0
Singapore
Mojovonio said:
Yeah, that's true.

But I still, I expected more from the 360 flagship title.
I never expect games regardless how big they are,have legs to survive more than 2 months. Only Nintendo's casual games can pull off such a feat.
 
May 15, 2006
3,886
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Seems a bit dull this month with all the leaks and everyone pretty much in agreement over the numbers. We can hope for some surprises at least.
 

duk

Banned
May 10, 2006
8,487
0
0
Mojovonio said:
Yeah, that's true.

But I still, I expected more from the 360 flagship title.
almost 50% of NA 360 owners have the flagship title, that's pretty darn impressive.
 

Borys

Banned
Dec 12, 2004
12,094
0
0
38
Poland baby!
sonycowboy said:
http://www.thesimexchange.com/research.php

I didn't post the entirety of their article. To see that detail go to their full release above.
Thanks.

PC Games � Continued Cannibalization

A similar phenomenon is occurring in November. The prediction market is only expecting 66,000 units and 78,000 units sold for Crysis and Unreal Tournament 3, respectively.
Wow, that is way fucking low.

FUCK YOU PC GAMERS
 

Lorul2

Member
Aug 27, 2006
308
2
1,110
I thought the Wii was supply constrained??? Yet there are a million of them sold, and not a million pros, and elites (which are also sold out)?I think the 360 numbers maybe closer to the Wii than the analysts (including Gaf) think.
 

Mau ®

Member
Apr 16, 2005
16,568
0
0
Silent Hill Origins made it into the Top 20? WOW, it actually had higher numbers than SH4 on its release month.
 

sonycowboy

Member
Jun 8, 2004
12,214
4
0
New Jersey
inthezone said:
Silent Hill Origins made it into the Top 20? WOW, it actually had higher numbers than SH4 on its release month.
The 20 are NOT intended to be the top 20 sellers. Just the 20 titles we chose for predictions. Guitar Hero 2 for the PS2 and Wii are likely to be quite high in the rankings, for example.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Jun 7, 2004
77,908
2
1,490
Oregon
duk said:
almost 50% of NA 360 owners have the flagship title, that's pretty darn impressive.
52% as of October (3.7m sales on a 7.1m installed base). It will probably drop a bit over the holidays, but even then it should move another 500k easy.

It is important to note that November includes nine days of sales post-Thanksgiving, compared to only two days of sales last year, so software and hardware sell-through should be dramatically higher year-over-year.
It all averaged out on the GAF aggregate, but a lot of people didn't factor that into their estimates.
 

Lorul2

Member
Aug 27, 2006
308
2
1,110
Despite increasing PS3 sales, we do not expect any significant shift in PS3 market share in Sony’s favor until mid 2008. A shift will likely be the result of continued hardware price cuts and the release of several AAA titles such as Metal Gear Solid 4 and Grand Theft Auto IV—both of which is expected to be released near the half-way point of 2008.


Uhmm, doesn't TheSimExchange know atleast one of those games will come out on the same day as the 360?
 
Jan 19, 2005
70,608
0
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www.benjaminbirdie.com
Lorul2 said:
Despite increasing PS3 sales, we do not expect any significant shift in PS3 market share in Sony’s favor until mid 2008. A shift will likely be the result of continued hardware price cuts and the release of several AAA titles such as Metal Gear Solid 4 and Grand Theft Auto IV—both of which is expected to be released near the half-way point of 2008.


Uhmm, doesn't TheSimExchange know atleast one of those games will come out on the same day as the 360?
It would still be, arguably, the most commercially appealing PS3 game ever to be released. GTA is GTA.
 
May 15, 2006
3,886
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BenjaminBirdie said:
It would still be, arguably, the most commercially appealing PS3 game ever to be released. GTA is GTA.
What is unclear is how it will "shift the market" since it will probably sell twice as many copies on 360 as PS3, if not more.
 

Mojovonio

Banned
Jun 21, 2006
11,485
0
0
So what happened to that theory that multiplat games sell low on PS3 because people buy them on 360?

When you have 2 huge first party games flop in the first month.

Sony needs to get their marketing team in to panic mode.

These games need to be selling more.
 

Mojovonio

Banned
Jun 21, 2006
11,485
0
0
BenjaminBirdie said:
Really? I agree that the PS3 version will probably sell half as much but it's going to do almost as good as Halo 3 for the 360.

I think, at least.
Ratchet used to be a million seller.

I fear for GTA4 on PS3.
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
Software Comparisons:

Note: When released for 360 and PS3, format is <360>/<PS3> (<combined>)
Code:
                      Pachter      simExchange             NeoGAF
Rock Band          */* (600K)    152K/*    (*)   181K/ 77K (257K)
Assassin's Creed   */* (400K)       */272K (*)   520K/213K (632K)
Call of Duty 4     */* (800K)+   833K/*    (*)   757K/240K (957K)
Guitar Hero III    */*(1700K)++     */*    (*)   363K/*   (1000K)+++

Super Mario Galaxy          *            1270K              945K
Mario & Sonic               *             242K              232K
Mass Effect                 *             328K              331K
+ - May include DS and PC versions
++ - 360, PS2, PS3, and Wii
+++ - 360, PS2, and Wii

inthezone said:
Silent Hill Origins made it into the Top 20? WOW, it actually had higher numbers than SH4 on its release month.
That's not a Top 20 for November. It is the ranking for the 20 games that we predicted for this month. Notice the absence of Wii Play.

Edit: Noticed sonycowboy already covered it. :)

driley said:
This is a great read. Thanks for posting.
Ditto. Thanks, sonycowboy! :)
 
May 15, 2006
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Mojovonio said:
Ratchet used to be a million seller.

I fear for GTA4 on PS3.
Those two games aren`t even in the same league.

PS3 GTA will do great, it just isn`t going to shift any market, since the 360 version will be the more popular.
 

Mojovonio

Banned
Jun 21, 2006
11,485
0
0
The Innocent X said:
Those two games aren`t even in the same league.

PS3 GTA will do great, it just isn`t going to shift any market, since the 360 version will be the more popular.
Maybe.

But with the userbase what it is, is that Uncharted number ok for PS3?