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Official November 2007 NPD Preview Thread

Master Z

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Oct 6, 2004
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AdmiralViscen said:
I still remember last year when everyone (sometimes including myself) was comparing every bit of 360 sales data against PS2's to call it underwhelming. Nowadays PS3 can undertrack 360 and GameCube and still get the thumbs up from some people. At least it's doing well in Europe.


The question is, why can't PS3 gain traction in the US? There are supposed to be 30 million people anticipating one, it's received two price cuts and a respectable lineup for a non 360 owner. And it's the holiday season where price doesn't matter so much. Shouldn't this month have been a powder keg for PS3, not just a "less than 360 last year but that's ok relative to competition" thing?

I think the problem is that 360 ate up all the $400 console prospective buyers. And I think it's going to be a recurring problem at every price point Sony hits. I think removing BC was a big blunder too.
Lol. The PS3 did 150k in Oct. and them doing 400k+ a month later is suppossed to be bad? Lol you people expecting the PS3 to suddenly explode are jokers. If the PS3 is to rise out of it's current third place position it's going to be slow and steady and take years not months.
 

Psychotext

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Jun 15, 2007
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Master Z said:
Lol. The PS3 did 150k in Oct. and them doing 400k+ a month later is suppossed to be bad? Lol you people expecting the PS3 to suddenly explode are jokers. If the PS3 is to rise out of it's current third place position it's going to be slow and steady and take years not months.
Sales usually double in November compared to October, just a simple seasonal change. Plus of course their press release indicated 100k sales in the first week of this NPD period largely caused by the price drop and release of the 40gb so it should be even higher.
 

DayShallCome

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Oct 20, 2006
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AdmiralViscen said:
I still remember last year when everyone (sometimes including myself) was comparing every bit of 360 sales data against PS2's to call it underwhelming. Nowadays PS3 can undertrack 360 and GameCube and still get the thumbs up from some people. At least it's doing well in Europe.


The question is, why can't PS3 gain traction in the US? There are supposed to be 30 million people anticipating one, it's received two price cuts and a respectable lineup for a non 360 owner. And it's the holiday season where price doesn't matter so much. Shouldn't this month have been a powder keg for PS3, not just a "less than 360 last year but that's ok relative to competition" thing?

I think the problem is that 360 ate up all the $400 console prospective buyers. And I think it's going to be a recurring problem at every price point Sony hits. I think removing BC was a big blunder too.
To be honest, it even has a respectable lineup for a 360 owner. The PS3 is just not in good shape.

I think that GameCube and PS3 are pretty similar in regards to their first year libraries. And yet, PS3 is having trouble matching even what Cube accomplished in its first year, and that makes me think that the problems are much deeper than just software lineup.

I wonder if the issue is that Sony, despite all of their success with PS2, didn't do a good enough job of establishing "sticky" brands last generation. Series' like Rachet and Clank and Jak and Daxter sold well last generation, but maybe their success was simply due to overwhelming market share % and not any type of mindshare penetration. If that's true, Sony has even more of an uphill battle this generation than I expected.
 

Master Z

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Agent Icebeezy said:
The hardware tally is only one part of the story. Software is more telling though and that is what these news articles neglect to tell.
True indeed, but why is that then? Why did the media go nuts for Nintendo when they annouced Wii Fit at E3 when MS had Halo 3? My guess is that they see Wii Fit as some kind of revolution or something while Halo is just the same old same old. Perhaps they feel that Nintendo's direction is the path to the promised land for this gen. I guess we'll just have to wait until '08 and see if MS is still the software king or if Wii Fit is the beginning of end for 360 software sales supremacy...
 
Jan 19, 2005
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DayShallCome said:
I wonder if the issue is that Sony, despite all of their success with PS2, didn't do a good enough job of establishing "sticky" brands last generation. Series' like Rachet and Clank and Jak and Daxter sold well last generation, but maybe their success was simply due to overwhelming market share % and not any type of mindshare penetration. If that's true, Sony has even more of an uphill battle this generation than I expected.
I think that's a really good point. Sometimes I think it's just because I'm an old fogey, but I never felt like those franchises had the "stickiness" of, say, a Crash Bandicoot.
 

donny2112

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AdmiralViscen said:
I still remember last year when everyone (sometimes including myself) was comparing every bit of 360 sales data against PS2's to call it underwhelming.
Not everyone. My position was that we can't know how the 360 is doing until we see how the PS3 (and maybe Wii?) does. Comparing it to the PS2 never made sense to me. sonycowboy was correct in that if the 360 was going to be the next PS2, the comparison was valid, but I didn't hold that position. There will not be another PS2 (i.e. massive hardware and megaton proportion software) this generation, at least as far as home consoles go.

AdmiralViscen said:
I think the problem is that 360 ate up all the $400 console prospective buyers. And I think it's going to be a recurring problem at every price point Sony hits.
It definitely doesn't help.
 
Jun 7, 2006
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Master Z said:
True indeed, but why is that then? Why did the media go nuts for Nintendo when they annouced Wii Fit at E3 when MS had Halo 3? My guess is that they see Wii Fit as some kind of revolution or something while Halo is just the same old same old. Perhaps they feel that Nintendo's direction is the path to the promised land for this gen. I guess we'll just have to wait until '08 and see if MS is still the software king or if Wii Fit is the beginning of end for 360 software sales supremacy...
Oh man...Who cares if Nintendo or Microsoft sell more software on their system ? What's matter is that good software sell well, doesn't matter on which platform.
Anway, I doubt that Wii's software sales will be bigger then on X360 anytime soon, at least for Third Parties (my guess is that it will never happen).
Nintendo doesn't really care about as long as their non-games have no competition on the market. Wii Fit sales will be completely independent from PS3 and X360. And probably even the industry will not change. Only Nintendo benefits MASSIVELY from Wii now. And the situation is not much different from the DS, at least for NA. (Japan = Square-Enix + DS).

Anyway, as long as Mario Galaxy sells millions, for me it's ok.
 

Agent Icebeezy

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Master Z said:
True indeed, but why is that then? Why did the media go nuts for Nintendo when they annouced Wii Fit at E3 when MS had Halo 3? My guess is that they see Wii Fit as some kind of revolution or something while Halo is just the same old same old. Perhaps they feel that Nintendo's direction is the path to the promised land for this gen. I guess we'll just have to wait until '08 and see if MS is still the software king or if Wii Fit is the beginning of end for 360 software sales supremacy...
It is easier to explain the merits of a Wii Fit. Put a Suzanne Somers or somebody else up there working out with it and the benefits of it are easy to see to the naked eye as it is a fun way of doing exercise. You can't show off the dexterity and precision needed for a Halo 3 and not expect it to be off-putting for some. My wife has tried CoD4 and Halo 3 with me but she just can't get it down pat. When you have all these buttons on your controller and most are mapped with multiple functions, no casual gamer wants a part of that.
 

HK-47

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Oct 24, 2007
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So nobody thinks that Pokemon might just pop back up for a surprise visit...D/P havent hit a holiday yet and that an awful lot of DS sold
 

Master Z

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Agent Icebeezy said:
It is easier to explain the merits of a Wii Fit. Put a Suzanne Somers or somebody else up there working out with it and the benefits of it are easy to see to the naked eye as it is a fun way of doing exercise. You can't show off the dexterity and precision needed for a Halo 3 and not expect it to be off-putting for some. My wife has tried CoD4 and Halo 3 with me but she just can't get it down pat. When you have all these buttons on your controller and most are mapped with multiple functions, no casual gamer wants a part of that.
Indeed. Now the question that remains to be answered is if Nintendo's casual market will buy enough games to dethrone the X360's software lead. Should be interesting to see it all play out.
 

LJ11

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AdmiralViscen said:
I think the problem is that 360 ate up all the $400 console prospective buyers. And I think it's going to be a recurring problem at every price point Sony hits. I think removing BC was a big blunder too.
I agree.

Removing BC cut ties to millions of PS2 owners, they became "free agents." It was a boneheaded move and I wonder if 3rd parties had a say in the matter. With PS3 software sales sputtering, 3rd parties potentially canceling PS3 projects, Sony had try and prop up PS3 software sales. I can envision a scenario where 3rd parties told Sony to dump BC and drop the price, or we dump you.
 

Bishman

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Jun 7, 2004
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LJ11 said:
I agree.

Removing BC cut ties to millions of PS2 owners, they became "free agents." It was a boneheaded move and I wonder if 3rd parties had a say in the matter. With PS3 software sales sputtering, 3rd parties potentially canceling PS3 projects, Sony had try and prop up PS3 software sales. I can envision a scenario where 3rd parties told Sony to dump BC and drop the price, or we dump you.
Removing BC was Sony digging a even bigger hole for them selves. First, pricing the PS3 too expensive for the main stream consumer. And second, removing BC where millions... and millions of PS2 owners can not play their games on the PS3. Why would they do that? BC is what made PS2 a good value for the consumer. Not only did it play DVDs but also played PS1 games.

If I can't find a 60 GB PS3 when MGS4 is released, I will be fucking pissed.
 

theBishop

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Nov 26, 2006
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Wii are the Champions

ONE of this year's must-have Christmas gifts is a Nintendo Wii video-game console. And, just like Bratz or Cabbage Patch dolls in past years, it is proving hard to find. On Friday December 7th Nintendo announced it may even stop TV advertising in Britain until 2008 because it cannot meet demand. In September worldwide sales of the lower-priced Wii overtook Microsoft's Xbox 360. But the Wii's lack of high-resolution graphics may eventually dent its desirability. By 2011 Sony's PlayStation 3 is forecast to catch up with the Wii, according to Screen Digest, a consultancy.

http://economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10276394

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It doesn't surprise me to see the 360 tapering off hard. As time goes on, 360's global weakness is going to become a liability. What surprises me is they have Wii going strong all the way through 2011. I don't see how Nintendo can keep their vastly inferior hardware (both in power and in network functions) interesting in the face of more advanced technology (and presumably games).
 
Jun 7, 2006
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theBishop said:





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It doesn't surprise me to see the 360 tapering off hard. As time goes on, 360's global weakness is going to become a liability. What surprises me is they have Wii going strong all the way through 2011. I don't see how Nintendo can keep their vastly inferior hardware (both in power and in network functions) interesting in the face of more advanced technology (and presumably games).
I wonder if the Wii will really sell more then the NES. It could be just incredible considering that just 1 year ago all thought that it was the end for Nintendo for the console market.
 

Mize

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Nov 10, 2007
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orio7 said:
What's the point of showing that without a picture showing how it looks today? Maybe they just got a big shipment in when you took that picture?
Yeah right lol
Agreed. One of our Costcos has sold out of PS3s twice in the last three weeks and yesterday Target was sold out. Both have had plenty of 360s. Anecdotal and flawed data since my costcos might get 360 shipments in 3x/week and ps3s only 1x/week.
 

donny2112

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That graph is really funny. It's like they took every analyst's expectations for the PS3 and used that for the right side of the graph, and then took reality and used it for the left side of the graph.
 

FrankT

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Jan 18, 2007
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theBishop said:





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It doesn't surprise me to see the 360 tapering off hard. As time goes on, 360's global weakness is going to become a liability. What surprises me is they have Wii going strong all the way through 2011. I don't see how Nintendo can keep their vastly inferior hardware (both in power and in network functions) interesting in the face of more advanced technology (and presumably games).

Going by that chart they are way off, and I mean way off. Just for starters it looks as if they have the PS3 and 360 at over 20 million by the end of 07/beginning of 08. Moreover they have the PS3 ahead at that point.
 

theBishop

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Mithos Yggdrasill said:
I wonder if the Wii will really sell more then the NES. It could be just incredible considering that just 1 year ago all thought that it was the end for Nintendo for the console market.
Yeah, its insane. But the frustrating thing about it is the games don't bear it out. Even though I'm not the biggest Nintendo fan these days (Diehard NES/SNES fan), I'd be happy to see them succeeding if their system really dominating in terms of game library. Its a little sad to see the buzz around Wii Sports, Mario Party, and Wii Play rather than Metroid, Mario, etc. Let alone new core-gaming franchises, which are what I really want to see.
 
S

Shepherd

Unconfirmed Member
theBishop said:





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It doesn't surprise me to see the 360 tapering off hard. As time goes on, 360's global weakness is going to become a liability. What surprises me is they have Wii going strong all the way through 2011. I don't see how Nintendo can keep their vastly inferior hardware (both in power and in network functions) interesting in the face of more advanced technology (and presumably games).
Wow, that is not going to happen. The PS3 passing the 360 in 2008? The PS3 selling 40 Million units by the end of 2009? That is just nuts.
 

duk

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May 10, 2006
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GhaleonEB said:
There will be insight, tears, joy, meltdowns and bannings. Oh, yes, there will be bannings.
it's like a monthly ritual, time to sacrifice some golden calves
 

theBishop

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Nov 26, 2006
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Jtyettis said:
Going by that chart they are way off, and I mean way off. Just for starters it looks as if they have the PS3 and 360 at over 20 million by the end of 07/beginning of 08. Moreover they have the PS3 ahead at that point.
Read it again. Each year marker is the total at the end of the year. They are estimating 40mil for the end of 2008, not 2007.
 

Psychotext

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Jtyettis said:
Going by that chart they are way off, and I mean way off. Just for starters it looks as if they have the PS3 and 360 at over 20 million by the end of 07/beginning of 08. Moreover they have the PS3 ahead at that point.
The years on the chart are end of year... so in this case you'd have the PS3 around 10 million at the end of 07 and the 360 at something like 16 million. I'd need someone to count the pixels for any sort of accuracy. :lol
 

GhaleonEB

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Loudninja said:
It seems everyone expect the same numbers
Which is why I'm partly expecting a surprise. Wait, is it even possible to expect a surprise? I wouldn't be surprised if there's a surprise.
 

FrankT

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theBishop said:
Read it again. Each year marker is the total at the end of the year. They are estimating 40mil for the end of 2008, not 2007.

Ok reread and now see end-year *.

40 million PS3's by the end of 08 is a complete and total joke.
 

theBishop

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Jtyettis said:
Ok reread and now see end-year *.

40 million PS3's by the end of 08 is a complete and total joke.
No. They cross at the end of 2008. PS3 doesn't reach 40mil until the end of 2009, which I don't think is too outrageous.

For each year on the chart, the chart is showing how many million they've sold at the end of that year (protip: check the asterisk).
 

squicken

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GhaleonEB said:
Which is why I'm partly expecting a surprise. Wait, is it even possible to expect a surprise? I wouldn't be surprised if there's a surprise.
Dude, I've cleard my schedule for Thursday afternoon/evening for Burnout demo and NPD mayhem. Thursday will be like Christmas comes early.
 

donny2112

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Agent Icebeezy said:
Pachter always undershoots the 360.
*remembers 2006*

:lol :lol :lol

GhaleonEB said:
Which is why I'm partly expecting a surprise. Wait, is it even possible to expect a surprise? I wouldn't be surprised if there's a surprise.
GBA numbers get released?
 

schuelma

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Feb 11, 2007
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theBishop said:
Yeah, its insane. But the frustrating thing about it is the games don't bear it out. Even though I'm not the biggest Nintendo fan these days (Diehard NES/SNES fan), I'd be happy to see them succeeding if their system really dominating in terms of game library. Its a little sad to see the buzz around Wii Sports, Mario Party, and Wii Play rather than Metroid, Mario, etc. Let alone new core-gaming franchises, which are what I really want to see.

I see your point, but I think we will all be very very happy with Galaxy sales comes Thursday.

But yeah...Nintendo needs some more new core-gaming franchises like now.
 

Oblivion

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Is it just me, or does it feel like we're getting the next NPD sooner than last time?
 

rage1973

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theBishop said:
No. They cross at the end of 2008. PS3 doesn't reach 40mil until the end of 2009, which I don't think is too outrageous.

For each year on the chart, the chart is showing how many million they've sold at the end of that year (protip: check the asterisk).
Sorry but even the most optimistic Sony fans at this point do not believe that chart. There is no way Sony can catch up to Wii sales and pass up 360 numbers so fast.
 

FIREBABY

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Feb 12, 2006
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My prediction on the "surprise". Sony will not have sold as many PS3's as they predicted. There are a few reasons I think this but it doesn't need repeating if you've kept up with things this month. Also DS numbers might just be a little higher.
 

jarrod

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speculawyer said:
So the Zapper is an accessory but Wii Play is a game . . . I guess it all depends on the name on the box . . . Wii-mote with bonus games and Zelda's Crossbow training with accessory would be the reverse I suppose.
Would Time Crisis 4 be an accessory then though? You can't buy the Gun.con 3 any other way... what about Eye of Judgement or Scene It?
 

RSTEIN

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theBishop said:
This graph is wrong. In 2010 you're going to see a levelling off of 360 sales... because the 720 will be out for holiday 2010.
 

speculawyer

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theBishop said:
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It doesn't surprise me to see the 360 tapering off hard. As time goes on, 360's global weakness is going to become a liability. What surprises me is they have Wii going strong all the way through 2011. I don't see how Nintendo can keep their vastly inferior hardware (both in power and in network functions) interesting in the face of more advanced technology (and presumably games).
That chart is a joke . . . it will be proven way wrong. It seems to assume with that PS3 surge that people are going to suddenly desire Blu-Ray . . . but if hi-def is all the rage, that would play against the Wii continued strength. Illogical.

That PS3 growth is just unrealistic. Yes, the 360 gets clobbered by the PS3 in Japan . . . but PS3 sales in Japan are not that big. And the PS3 seems to have a little bit of an edge in Europe . . . but not a big one and it the gap may diminish. And looking at the predictions of November for the USA, the PS3 continues to fall further behind.