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[Makai]

The VP pick is going to happen pretty soon (I think?) and Trump will have an even higher chance of winning once he wraps up the nom and starts debating Hillary and CNN pushes their dead heat narrative. So my plan is to use the short term gains from the VP shitshow to bet on a Trump loss when he's at his highest, which I don't think is now.

That kind of stuff is already priced-in. You can't time the market.

 

[HylianTom]

The gender gap has been a central part of the Dems winning anything for a while now, Trump is just going to exacerbate the problem with how he runs against Hillary. If what we've seen in the last few weeks is any indication the gender gap is going to explode in November.

Newt would be my dream pick, because that would end the election then and there, but it's going to be Christie. If all my betting money wasn't already tied up in the general I'd put some on it.

Newt would make me positively giddy, and he fits well with Trump's repeatedly-stated intent to pick someone who's very familiar with Congress.. but Christie would be great, too.

I'm ultra-thankful that most of Trump's more favorable picks want nothing to do with the VP spot.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

That kind of stuff is already priced-in. You can't time the market.

Not normal markets. But PredictIt markets are not efficient.

 

[B-Dubs]

That kind of stuff is already priced-in. You can't time the market.

He might be able to get an extra few cents on the dollar if he times the convention bump right.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Trump is a fucking insane person:



https://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/donald-trump-says?utm_term=.ika60rKx7#.xkOGvWxb2

So, to summarize, Trump claims that ISIS bought cell phones for refugees and is paying their bills so that the Syrian refugees can do another 9/11 and he seems to imply that Obama wants Syrian refugees to do another 9/11.

Makes you wonder who feeds him information. This should also make you pretty damn confident about the election. He's proven over and over again that he is surrounded by people who tell him exactly what he wants to hear. He focuses on any info or poll that is good for him.

I've mentioned it before but I'd be very curious to see whether he'll be campaigning in New York and California, and how the RNC will deal with that. He's stupid/arrogant enough to believe he has a shot there and I'd imagine the RNC won't be happy about it.

 

[Makai]

Not normal markets. But PredictIt markets are not efficient.

You will find that you are the inefficiency.

 

[User 463088]

You're a mess. So many wrong opinions

😞
I'm amazing. But I do hope when Queen begins her reign she makes men illegal. Just in general and principle.

 

[CCS]

Your daily reminder that QUEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEN is the best choice by far:

 

[TheLaughingStock]

After this, it's definitely clear that Bernie staying in the race has done more harm than good.

Based off your gut feelings or something more than that? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sanders-shouldnt-drop-out-for-clintons-sake/

The response to Republican Party co-opted by the more polarized rightest wing should not be a Democratic Party co-opted by a more polarized left. All that leads to is no one left with the ability to actually govern based on practical and/or empirical realism.
How exactly is this shown whatsoever?

That's the situation right now in the US gov't at state, local, and federal levels. So, either the extremists and self-proclaimed centrists make better decisions or people with different ideologies are going to take their place until enough people are satisfied.

 

[User 463088]

Your daily reminder that QUEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEN is the best choice by far:

Cher, Hillary and I all have many natural hair colors. I paid for them all. I don't remember my original hair color....

 

[Sibylus]

Hilldawg should have a new colour for every year in office.

Year 8? Neon Purple.

 

[User1608]

Bernie is a total lightweight.

MFW discovery of relation to Newt

Hah hah.

 

[CCS]

Cher, Hillary and I all have many natural hair colors. I paid for them all. I don't remember my original hair color....

I'm sure it was beautiful bae

Hilldawg should have a new colour for every year in office.

Year 8? Neon Purple.

I m 1000% behind this.

 

[thepotatoman]

I missed this earlier with all the Nevada nonsense, but this......is a terrible idea. And his campaign has proven more that a decent amount of the American population has no idea what the word socialism entails.

The response to Republican Party co-opted by the more polarized rightest wing should not be a Democratic Party co-opted by a more polarized left. All that leads to is no one left with the ability to actually govern based on practical and/or empirical realism.
How exactly is this shown whatsoever?

I don't think governance is a worry for the far left. What makes the far right so destructive is they are incentivised to block everything because they hate everything the government does. Compromise is impossible because for them "something is better than nothing" is literally opposite to their political beliefs.

The far left can push all they want for a federal $15 minimum wage, but if it becomes clear that the option is a 50 cent increase or no increase, they're plenty incentivised to compromise and take what they can. I mean Bernie Sanders was vocal from the start that ACA didn't go far enough, but there was never a time when you were worried about his vote because something is definitely better than nothing for the far left.

 

[Jack Remington]

Based off your gut feelings or something more than that? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sanders-shouldnt-drop-out-for-clintons-sake/

My opinion is that the 538 analysis showing that extended primaries have not harmed the party in the past does not mean that the same is true this year. See here and here.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Newt would be my dream pick, because that would end the election then and there, but it's going to be Christie. If all my betting money wasn't already tied up in the general I'd put some on it.

Trump will pick Barbara Bush, just to spite Jeb.

 

[B-Dubs]

Trump will pick Barbara Bush, just to spite Jeb.

He should find a way to force Jeb into doing it. That would be magical.

 

[Box of Kittens]

I've likened following the primaries at this point to watching preseason football. It's not really worth it, but it's the closest I'll get to the real thing until November. With that in mind, I'll go ahead and make my predictions for Tuesday. Obviously there's nothing even remotely interesting to say about the Republican side. On the Democratic side:

Oregon: Bernie
Kentucky: Bernie

There have been encouraging signs for Hillary in either state, but here's how I look at it. I picked Bernie to win Missouri and Hillary to win Indiana and Rhode Island. I pretty clearly suck at calling the states where indications suggest a close race. I might as well use this power for good.

 

[Mrs. Manky]

41% of Bernie supporters have an unfavorable view of Bill Clinton

14% of Bernie supporters oppose single payer

Why support Bernie but not support one of the most progressive planks in his platform? Because some (not all) Bernie supporters are less pro-Bernie and more anti-Obama.

 

[User 463088]

I've likened following the primaries at this point to watching preseason football. It's not really worth it, but it's the closest I'll get to the real thing until November. With that in mind, I'll go ahead and make my predictions for Tuesday. Obviously there's nothing even remotely interesting to say about the Republican side. On the Democratic side:

Oregon: Bernie
Kentucky: Bernie

There have been encouraging signs for Hillary in either state, but here's how I look at it. I picked Bernie to win Missouri and Hillary to win Indiana and Rhode Island. I pretty clearly suck at calling the states where indications suggest a close race. I might as well use this power for good.

The thing that's the biggest surprise to me is that Oregon is even potentially close. I still think Bernie takes it, but I would have never thought there would be polling/demo benchmarks in Oregon that were favorable to queen. It just seemed like a Bernie slam dunk. A close race is a loss for Bernie, though. So, yay.

 

[jack_package_200]

So I was just phonebanked by 2 different people. Both of them had very european accents.

I asked if they even lived in the US and neither was willing to answer.

The thing that's the biggest surprise to me is that Oregon is even potentially close. I still think Bernie takes it, but I would have never thought there would be polling/demo benchmarks in Oregon that were favorable to queen. It just seemed like a Bernie slam dunk. A close race is a loss for Bernie, though. So, yay.

Considering that Obama won by 22 point margin in 2008, its a huge problem for old Bern.

 

[Tarkus]

So I was just phonebanked by 2 different people. Both of them had very european accents.

I asked if they even lived in the US and neither was willing to answer.

Will you vote for Glinton Hillary? President next she is.

 

[Ether_Snake]

There's no way Trump will pick Christie.

He's going to do what he can to pick a "real Republican", to lock in the base. Not going to pick some guy from the north east.

 

[jack_package_200]

Will you vote for Glinton Hillary? President next she is.

Nah, they wanted me "pick the true source of progressive change" Bernie Sanders.

They all sounded so offended when I said no.

 

[Box of Kittens]

The thing that's the biggest surprise to me is that Oregon is even potentially close. I still think Bernie takes it, but I would have never thought there would be polling/demo benchmarks in Oregon that were favorable to queen. It just seemed like a Bernie slam dunk. A close race is a loss for Bernie, though. So, yay.

Yeah, I would've expected it to be heavily Bernie territory too. In theory if it's even close that should be the end of the "Bernie will keep Hillary nonviable in California because Left Coast" talk, but since Seth Abramson and his ilk aren't even being vaguely influenced by reality at this point, I know it won't.

 

[ampere]

So that fever I had boiled into a cold that put me out till this morning. That reddit post though. I have cancer now. Thanks.

I know that feel. Still got my head boiling right now and can't sleep

 

[Holmes]

So I was just phonebanked by 2 different people. Both of them had very european accents.

I asked if they even lived in the US and neither was willing to answer.



Considering that Obama won by 22 point margin in 2008, its a huge problem for old Bern.

It was an 18% margin, not that it makes a big difference.

 

[Tarkus]

It would be cool to have a breathalyzer competition with adam387. I bet I win.

 

[ampere]

Hilldawg should have a new colour for every year in office.

Year 8? Neon Purple.

I vote gay rainbow for year 5 to celebrate reelection

 

[User 463088]

It would be cool to have a breathalyzer competition with adam387. I bet I win.

I mean once you break out the breathalyzer no ones a winner.

 

[studyguy]

Woke up from a nap and reading more on the Nevada bit. So of the delegate group only some 6 of Bernie's group had registered as Democrats proper before the May date? Is that right? What is even going on I thought it was just a couple not almost 60 of them.

 

[Holmes]

Woke up from a nap and reading more on the Nevada bit. So of the delegate group only some 6 of Bernie's group had registered as Democrats proper before the May date? Is that right? What is even going on I thought it was just a couple not almost 60 of them.

Well there were 1600 Sanders delegates, right? I think it was that 64 weren't registered Democrats or their information couldn't be found, and only 6 were able to get it all cleared up. Begs the question of how many delegates in that Clark county convention were even Democrats, or actual Nevadans.

 

[eBay Huckster]

who's ben dreyfuss

because he's been savaging ha! good, man and seth abramson on his twitter feed for the past two hours and i'm dying from laughter

 

[nature boy]

Cry-baby continues:

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 1h1 hour ago
Wow, I have had so many calls from high ranking people laughing at the stupidity of the failing @nytimes piece. Massive front page for that!

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 1h1 hour ago
Why did the failing @nytimes refuse to use any of the names given to them that I was so proud to have helped with their careers. DISHONEST!

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 53m53 minutes ago
The media is really on a witch-hunt against me. False reporting, and plenty of it - but we will prevail!

 

[itschris]

This is a great summary of the Nevada shitshow.

Fraud conspirators:

Hillary Clinton - Obvious. Obvious. Aunt Hillary is Queen Bee of dirty tricks the way she stole back those delegates, despite having no direct involvement with anything at all in how the state convention was run.

Roberta Lange - Head of NV Dems and probable $hillary scissor sister. Held voice votes confirming rules set by Rules Comm and denying petitions by Bernouts trying to change rules on the floor.

Nina Turner - Turncoat traitor SJW because, despite her backing Bernie, she betrayed the bros by calling for them to be fucking civil and to stop screaming like Khan was putting a larva in their ear.

Barbara Boxer - Dragon Lady. Did not take kindly to neckbeards shouting obscenities at her, stands accused of not being lady-like and speaking while men are shrieking.

NV Delegate information sheets - Cruelly hid secret rule about having to be a registered Democrat to be eligible to be a delegate right at the top, invalidating the credentials of BernieBros that renounced their brief affiliation with the Democratic Party in disgust after Bernie was cheated out of NY.

Checkboxes - This year's hanging chad. Associated with confusing question on NV county delegate forms about whether Bernouts wanted to be considered to be state delegates, leading to salty Bros being tricked because they think "No" means "Yes."

Rules Committee - Secret organization that is ONLY HALF Sanders supporters (really have you ever met a Hillary supporter) that decided to do a silly thing like base pledged delegate allocation on the Feb. 20 caucuses and state convention rather than the county conventions where Clinton delegates were told they did not need to show up, allowing Bernie supporters to flood the Clark County convention. Bernie had more eligible delegates for the state convention, but they were preoccupied with their cousin's graduation or sleeping, WHICH THE RULES COMM TOTALLY KNEW. Subverting BernieBros in favor of the voters has been declared the moment Democracy Died in America.

More at the link!

 

[Bronx-Man]

Cry-baby continues:

God, his style of his tweets is so annoying. It's honestly one of my least favorite things about him.

They had better not, or this will be me in them streets:

RULES OF NATURE!

 

[Poodlestrike]

This is a great summary of the Nevada shitshow.



More at the link!

Lost it at "mathematics."

 

[eBay Huckster]

This is a great summary of the Nevada shitshow.



More at the link!

Nina Turner - Turncoat traitor SJW because, despite her backing Bernie, she betrayed the bros by calling for them to be fucking civil and to stop screaming like Khan was putting a larva in their ear.

oh god i'm glad no one can hear the laughing noises i just made

 

[eBay Huckster]

so just so i have this right

twitter/reddit went into an uproar yesterday because the NV convention actually reflected the initial vote share despite berniebros' ron paul-esque attempts at delegate fuckery?

 

[jack_package_200]

so just so i have this right

twitter/reddit went into an uproar yesterday because the NV convention actually reflected the initial vote share despite berniebros' ron paul-esque attempts at delegate fuckery?

These people don't care about the will of people. Its not undemocratic if it helps Bernie.

 

[Daniel B·]

When asked by a student reporter about electoral cynicism, Obama gives an excellent summary of the issues, such as on gerymandering, and even gives Bernie a shoutout:

I'm a strong believer in finding ways in which we can make the financing of campaigns more democratic.

Now we've seen some interesting work being done, you've got to give Bernie Sanders, for example, credit, building off some of the work I did, I in turn built up the work that Howard Dean did, for smaller dononations, grassroots donors, to be able, in small contributions, to allow candidates to be competitive.

But I think that, we don't want to leave that to chance, and that's much harder to do for members of Congress, who are lower profile, so they don't have the viral presence that allows them to raise that kind of money to compete.

Man, if by some small miracle Bernie doesn't become the 45th President, we will be taking such a retrograde step that if the Devil offered me the option, today, of Obama for a third term, I would gladly accept.

P.S. Did any one catch Cenk's cameos (two scenes as newscaster) in Money Monster, which might well have something to do with it being directed by Jodie Foster, who was interviewed the other day on TYT's "What The Flick" by Ben. Cenk also previously commented on his appearance.

 

[Box of Kittens]

so just so i have this right

twitter/reddit went into an uproar yesterday because the NV convention actually reflected the initial vote share despite berniebros' ron paul-esque attempts at delegate fuckery?

Basically.

County conventions: "Suck it, $hillaries. Rules is rules."

State convention: "FRAUD!"

 

[Suikoguy]

So Godslay, about that source you were pushing yesterday...?

 

[jack_package_200]

Man, if by some small miracle Bernie doesn't become the 45th President,.

Brah...

 

[eBay Huckster]

is hillary small? last thing i saw had her height at 5'6"

 

[Black Mamba]

Man, if by some small miracle Bernie doesn't become the 45th President,

 

[Poodlestrike]

is hillary small? last thing i saw had her height at 5'6"

That's p. short yeah

 

[Jenov]

That's p. short yeah

Naw, 5'6 is slightly above average for US women (I think 5'5 is the avg).

 

[bodyofanamerican]

President Obama’s full speech at Rutgers commencement

He rightly avoids the New Jersey hot-button issue of pork roll vs. taylor ham.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Naw, 5'6 is slightly above average for US women (I think 5'5 is the avg).

Ehhhhh

Feels short to me.