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PoliGAF Thread of VP Debate 2008 Trainwreck-in-slow-motion Popcorn Party Edition
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Cheebs said:
Yes, but that is because Bush had the stronger ground game and outpaced the polls, which meant that the R leaning poll would be closer to "right". This year I think the opposite may be true and the R2K tracker may be closer, but we'll see.
Regardless anywhere from +5 to +9 is Obamarama if it lasts.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
zesty said:
Just means that in their statistical simulations, Obama wins 80% of the time
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
zesty said:
its basically probability of obama or mccain winning.
zesty said:
Its a monte carlo style simulation. 529 basically runs a ton of hypothetical outcomes through its model based on current polling data. McCain wins some of them, Obama wins some of them.
The more hypothetical wins you get, the higher your win %. The larger your wins are, the larger your win %.
What the model is showing right now is when they run their hypothetical vote outcomes, Obama wins much more often and with much larger margins. McCain doesnt win very often at all, and when he does he barely wins (meaning his wins are less secure than Obamas).
More or less it is showing
1) Obama is leading pretty big at the moment.
2) McCain has basically 1 path to victory and that is to run the table with the Bush states.
3) Obama has a ton of paths to victory where he is able to lose swing states Kerry won and still win the election.
That's why I always look at things in the aggregate. pollster.com updated a graph at the request of Daily Kos - this is the Dem presidential nominee's lead (or not) for the 2000, 2004 and this year in their composite national tracking.StoOgE said:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/29/75241/1377/653/613633
I would say Biden is going to smoke Palin on Thursday, but Palin would do that to herself, without any help.
Crayon Shinchan
Aquafina Fanboy
lean compared to what?
The most accurate pollster with the smallest margin of error has a huge democratic lean if that's the case!
Reality; liberal biased.
The most accurate pollster with the smallest margin of error has a huge democratic lean if that's the case!
Reality; liberal biased.
Fragamemnon
Member
Couple of other polling notes:
Ras will be out with a poll of the following states this evening:
Colorado
Florida
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
I think the Virginia poll tonight might the bombshell. It's been increasingly out of reach for McCain since the Obama surge started, and the results there (confirming a strong, Colorado-style Obama lead) could dramatically alter the McCain campaign's strategy.
Second, watch for the daily Gallup tracker to maybe hit a double digit lead sometime this week with the news all focused on the terrible Sarah Palin. Watch for the corresponding freakout by the McCain campaign and we'll see if they can prevent themselves from doing anything stupid in response.
Ras will be out with a poll of the following states this evening:
Colorado
Florida
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
I think the Virginia poll tonight might the bombshell. It's been increasingly out of reach for McCain since the Obama surge started, and the results there (confirming a strong, Colorado-style Obama lead) could dramatically alter the McCain campaign's strategy.
Second, watch for the daily Gallup tracker to maybe hit a double digit lead sometime this week with the news all focused on the terrible Sarah Palin. Watch for the corresponding freakout by the McCain campaign and we'll see if they can prevent themselves from doing anything stupid in response.
D
Deleted member 20415
Unconfirmed Member
Hey folks,
I wanted to write a post to give you guys an idea of what it's like to volunteer for a political campaign.
I am from Bucks County, PA but now live near New York. I volunteered to go down to Lehigh County (Allentown, Bethlehem - basically an hour north of Philly) for the Obama campaign to canvas for voters.
There were 200 people that came out on Saturday (the highest yet I was told, most likely because of the debate). I got a list of about 65 voters from about 45 addresses and set out to go knock on some doors.
You don't just randomly knock on doors - you randomly knock on doors of people that are already registered voters - in this case with no party affiliation or independent or Republicans that have a history of voting for Democrat candidates. So you knock on their door and talk to them about the election and gauge if they are leaning Obama or McCain. If they are undecided, you ask them questions about the topics that they are focused on this election. You then talk about your candidates position.
I'll tell you what, you feel great doing this. This is 1 on 1 dialogue with people that are interested in politics and come from a different world than your own. I loved it.
Rural PA still needs to come a long way. I heard the "muslim" line from a few people and was called a "N***** lover" by one classy gentleman. Needless to say, I walked away immediately.
But there was some great silver lining - I got 10 new voters registered and seemingly convinced another 5 voters that were on the fence to at the very least look more into Obama's stances vs. McCain's on their important issues.
If you guys have any free time on the upcoming weekends, give a call to your local office... it's definitely a great experience. The end.
I wanted to write a post to give you guys an idea of what it's like to volunteer for a political campaign.
I am from Bucks County, PA but now live near New York. I volunteered to go down to Lehigh County (Allentown, Bethlehem - basically an hour north of Philly) for the Obama campaign to canvas for voters.
There were 200 people that came out on Saturday (the highest yet I was told, most likely because of the debate). I got a list of about 65 voters from about 45 addresses and set out to go knock on some doors.
You don't just randomly knock on doors - you randomly knock on doors of people that are already registered voters - in this case with no party affiliation or independent or Republicans that have a history of voting for Democrat candidates. So you knock on their door and talk to them about the election and gauge if they are leaning Obama or McCain. If they are undecided, you ask them questions about the topics that they are focused on this election. You then talk about your candidates position.
I'll tell you what, you feel great doing this. This is 1 on 1 dialogue with people that are interested in politics and come from a different world than your own. I loved it.
Rural PA still needs to come a long way. I heard the "muslim" line from a few people and was called a "N***** lover" by one classy gentleman. Needless to say, I walked away immediately.
But there was some great silver lining - I got 10 new voters registered and seemingly convinced another 5 voters that were on the fence to at the very least look more into Obama's stances vs. McCain's on their important issues.
If you guys have any free time on the upcoming weekends, give a call to your local office... it's definitely a great experience. The end.
ViperVisor
Member
gkrykewy said:
Cause Europe was killed mostly. World bad = less investments here and everywhere.
Fragamemnon
Member
gkrykewy said:
More bank failures, the Wachovia buyout, and the Fed's position on the mechanics of the bailout (that they are going to let the most troubled institutions fail, while keeping the more solid institutions intact, that the money won't start flowing for a couple of weeks, etc.) are not good news for stocks. Expect another really roller-coaster week.
I didn't mention it, but PPP should be out with a poll in Florida tomorrow that will likely show Obama's biggest lead in the state yet. Will definitely cause a stir.
Fragamemnon
Member
GhaleonEB said:
We could use some new polling in Indiana and Missouri as well! Oh, and New Hampshire too.
gkrykewy said:
The FTSE is down 180 points for the day (so far)
In Britain, Bradford & Bingley mortgage lender was nationalised.
Benelex banking giant Fortis was partially nationalised by the Dutch, Belgian and Luxembourg governments.
The Icelandic government took control of the country's third-largest bank, Glitnir, after the company had faced short-term funding problems.
So no surprise the Dow is getting whacked too, especially with Wachovia.
RubxQub
ÏÎ¯Î»Ï á¼Î¾ÎµÏÎÎ³Î»Î¿Ï Ïον καί ÏÎµÏ Î´Î¿Î»Ïγον οá½Îº εἰÏÏν
FoxNews and Pfottneksherzer already pre-spinning the debate as unfair to Sarah Palin!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MENUu--lTS4
Pre-spin is the new spin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MENUu--lTS4
Pre-spin is the new spin.
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
If last summer's front runners had won (Guiliani, Clinton) we would probably be looking at a Huckabee/Obama debate this thursday, or probably Huckabee/Clark. I'm thinking Romney would probably have gone with Huck as well. Matter of fact, I'm not sure why McCain didn't just go with Huck. You get the same energizing of the base with the evangelicals, yet Huck is a far more knowledgeable candidate than Palin.
The only explanation I can think of is wanting the Hillary women, but that backfired. Why am I on this hypothetical? I dunno.
The only explanation I can think of is wanting the Hillary women, but that backfired. Why am I on this hypothetical? I dunno.
D
Deleted member 20415
Unconfirmed Member
RubxQub said:
She's such a cancer... and that's insulting to cancer.
I can't believe they want to dumb things down for this debate.... so sad.
RubxQub
ÏÎ¯Î»Ï á¼Î¾ÎµÏÎÎ³Î»Î¿Ï Ïον καί ÏÎµÏ Î´Î¿Î»Ïγον οá½Îº εἰÏÏν
Also: John talks about the eye contact situation at the debate
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixcR6Ggy4Io
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixcR6Ggy4Io
ViperVisor
Member
LOLz! Steph Miller playing a clip of Mark Levin going nuts on BillO after he went nuts on everyone.
Palin is 3/3 in making the kooky base happy. Huck is 1/3
Religion *Jesus Horse for both
Issues *She either has no stance and can be molded or is on board with the idiocy already. Huck was actually a guy that was a reasonable Governor from what I remember.
Style *Younger woman vs avg. chubby balding dude
VanMardigan said:
Palin is 3/3 in making the kooky base happy. Huck is 1/3
Religion *Jesus Horse for both
Issues *She either has no stance and can be molded or is on board with the idiocy already. Huck was actually a guy that was a reasonable Governor from what I remember.
Style *Younger woman vs avg. chubby balding dude
kkaabboomm
Member
-330 for the day so far (dow)gkrykewy said:
fed injects huge amount of cash:
WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve and other countries' central banks have announced fresh steps to battle a worsening credit crisis that threatens to unhinge the U.S. economy
The Fed said Monday the action is intended to "expand significantly" the availability of cash available to squeezed banks and other financial institutions in an effort to provide relief to the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression.
The Fed cited "continued strains" in the demand for short-term funding.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26941860/
adamsappel
Member
Amirox, could you please include a post when you close a thread? I'm not going to go all Triumph on you, but some Mod Courtesy would be appreciated.The Chosen One said:
kkaabboomm
Member
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2008/09/news-flash-mcca.html
"Yet another poll shows a super-tight race in the nation's largest battleground state. American Research Group's survey of 600 voters found Democrat Barack Obama receiving 47 percent, compared to Republican John McCain with 46 percent. Margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent."
more: http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/FL08.html
it's an ARG poll, so take it as you will, but still, 47-46...
(for ref, they had it 46-46, before that 47-46 for M, before that 47-45 for M, then back in june 44-49 for O, so...)
"Yet another poll shows a super-tight race in the nation's largest battleground state. American Research Group's survey of 600 voters found Democrat Barack Obama receiving 47 percent, compared to Republican John McCain with 46 percent. Margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent."
more: http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/FL08.html
it's an ARG poll, so take it as you will, but still, 47-46...
(for ref, they had it 46-46, before that 47-46 for M, before that 47-45 for M, then back in june 44-49 for O, so...)
Fragamemnon said:
If Virginia and Colorado both go out of reach, I'd imagine McCain would just go on a complete blitz of Pennsylvania for the rest of the campaign, as it's the only plausible pick up for him with enough votes to counter Obama taking both Colorado and Virginia. I woul guess that Palin would take up permanent residence in central PA, and McCain would bounce back and forth between Philly and Pittsburgh for virtually the entirety of the remaining campaign with a tiny bit of defensive campaigning in other battlegrounds if VA and CO are out of reach. I'm not sure how Obama would shift to accommodate a McCain offensive in PA though. He could either just defend the territory, or he could try to tip one of the other swing states so that PA would no longer be enough.
BotoxAgent
Member
VanMardigan said:
yeah, out of all the VP picks, i was fearing Huck the most. Not only because of his appeal to evengelicals, but also he's a very likeable guy...I have trouble vehemently hating him even with his crazy ideas. Palin could possibly hand Obama the election.
BotoxAgent
Member
El_TigroX said:
Keep up the great work man!
Tyrone Slothrop
Banned
VanMardigan said:
I like huckabee as well (not that i'd vote for him) but picking him or romney or the standard white male #0383 wouldn't have galvanized the base and the mccain camp would probably be in worse shape than it is now. as disasterous as palin is, she's still a huge asset to mccain's chances of winning. if she bombs the debate it'll be a strech to say she's not a liability, though. this week is a make-it or break-it point for her.
Beer Monkey
Member
He should have said he was looking at Jesus.
Tyrone Slothrop
Banned
mccain is so absurdly stodgy and awkward. can't he at least try to come off as a little more affable for the campaign? he acts like he has a stick in his ass %90 of the time. same went for for al gore 2000.
~Devil Trigger~
In favor of setting Muslim women on fire
Shiggie said:
:lol
RubxQub
ÏÎ¯Î»Ï á¼Î¾ÎµÏÎÎ³Î»Î¿Ï Ïον καί ÏÎµÏ Î´Î¿Î»Ïγον οá½Îº εἰÏÏν
LOVE the overprepared statement. Left in the interesting stuff, but full article link below.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/29/free-palin-mccain-camp-re_n_130146.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/29/free-palin-mccain-camp-re_n_130146.html
Huffington Article said:
As much as I would personally like to see it, I'm still a bit worried that Biden will rip her a new asshole in the debate and turn her into a sympathetic figure for the Republican party and undecided soccer moms. Triumph said that Biden's best course of action would be to make general attacks toward the Repubs and not Palin, personally. Gonna have to agree with my fellow oldskool Phantasy Star fan on this one.
Not too big of a fan of Biden b/c of the RAVE act, but compared to Palin he's a white knight riding on a unicorn.
Not too big of a fan of Biden b/c of the RAVE act, but compared to Palin he's a white knight riding on a unicorn.
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