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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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eBay Huckster
Member
the loonie's dropping a few percent regardless of who gets elected
I even it out for you since I'd rather vote NDP but will probably vote Liberal in mine.
Speaking of which, is Mulcair also officially out too? He was threatening to do because of the Harper absence.
EDIT: forgot to actually reply to this comment (even though it's not my original post)
I don't want people coming over and buying up all the houses and then basically using Canada as their vacation spot. BUT, I am also of the opinion that the Canadian population is too small. With a larger population, there will be a bigger talent pool and that will allow us to develop companies and technologies.
See, I did kind of want that, but I decided voting for his brother and voted for Tory instead. What I want and what I do are usually different.
That reminds me of something I read during the municipal elections. They surveyed a bunch of kids and the results were:
1. Doug Ford - Because he's Rob Ford's brother and his family is interesting
2. Olivia Chow - Because "she cares about us and stuff"
3. John Tory - He's boring
eBay Huckster
Member
matthewwhatever
Member
Mulcair is threatening to as well. As of right now, as I said in the OP, the only debate guaranteed to feature all four party leaders is the Maclean's one on August 6th.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
I guess this will be the last Canadian election I can legally vote in owing to laws which restrict ex-patriate voting because we aren't real Canadians and we have no skin in the game and what happens in Canada doesn't affect us.
It ain't exactly the most accurate quiz and people are probably being lazy with sliders (like me), so that also plays a role.
Onion_Relish
Member
It's a good thing you acknowledge your second-class citizenship, you dirty foreig- I mean, ex-pat!
I'd be ok with the limit being set at 8-12 years, but 5 years is bullshit
IISANDERII
Member
Christian Heritage what?
In any case, I don't care how close things are and who might get in where, I won't be voting Liberal in the foreseeable future after they sided with the Conservatives on Bill C51[For all I know, the Liberals are misrepresenting themselves and lean far more right than they say on many more issues].
The point is that I will play the long game and I will vote NDP so they gather/keep momentum for more future elections, not just the next one.
Don't worry, one day they can strip my citizenship even though I was born here because I'm eligible for another citizenship because of my parents.
massivekettle
Member
Not so sure. If it's anything like the GBP earlier this year, the market will price in a Conservative loss (or surprise win) accordingly.
killer rin
Member
I do think Justin Trudeau would make a decent Prime Minister if given the chance. That said, right now I'm just going for
1. Which Non-Conservative candidate is most likely to win in my riding
2. In the event of the top positions being NDP/Liberal Who is most likely to enact Electoral Reform off of the dreaded FPTP since it forces us to strategically vote like this.
My brother is pissed because they allowed expats to vote, then reversed it months before this year's election.
t-storm
Member
I was open minded to considering voting NDP but there's no way if Mulcair doesn't participate in the broadcasters' debate. As well, today he took no questions from the media following his statement on the election so this paints a worrying picture of lack of transparency and tells me would be more of the same if he got elected.
equippedwithtowel
Member
Not trying to put you on the spot but what issues would those be? The only big one I can think of is economic protectionism.
matthewwhatever
Member
I think the test is flawed. I've taken it several times, but I've never scored over 25% with the Conservatives -- and I consider myself a pretty centrist person too, in favour of free trade and everything. I was even a member of the old PC Party, too.
I hope that law gets overturned by the Supreme Court. It's just so ridiculous. Between that and the ability to revoke people's citizenship, there are some pretty scary precedents being set.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
I'm also a dual citizen (with a European country that I've never lived in) so don't worry, I'm sure we'll lose our citizenship at the same time!
DeadlyParasite
Member
The quest to evict the conservatives begins. We deserve better than the shambling monstrosity that is the current government.
oneils
Member
There are Conservative party of Canada positions on issues and then conservative stances on issues. I'm guessing the isidewith site is strictly comparing our own positions with those of the parties rather than actual ideologies. That's why things can get skewed.
But I'm not a dual citizen, I'm just eligible to become one if I applied.
killer rin
Member
Wow, NDP is leading in my riding... we might actually be able to beat the conservative MP who has held the position for 10 years by 6%. Liberals look to be down 14% from the second place Conservatives, so it looks like the stage is being set in my riding between NDP/Cons.
Of course gonna have to wait to see the final polls before Election Day though.
Repost from when I did it in the Canada Poligaf thread a month ago
Essentially it is the Reform Party. The old PCs were pushed to get on board, or get out of the way.
Imagine if the Tea Party were an actual party that absorbed the Republicans.
gutter_trash
Banned
The only leader that actually inspired me to vote was Layton and now he's dead and his party has gone to shit. Likewise, fuck Trudeau, and everybody knows Harper is just a cowboy robot. None of the other parties are even worth attempting to vote for.
I predict -- another conservative minority due to the votes on the left being split.
I predict -- another conservative minority due to the votes on the left being split.
*sigh*
Please note that these things are just *projections*. They take the riding's results (or, if possible, the polling station results where the riding's boundaries have changed) and adjust them by the shift of the regional polls (where the regions are basically: BC, Alberta, Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and maybe the Territories). There are almost never a significant number of riding polls in Canada, so any estimate of who's leading in any given riding would have an immense margin of error if you could even have something like that for this kind of estimation. Even if they're right in the numbers for the overall region, it doesn't mean they're accurate to the riding.
If you want to know who's most likely to win you have to look at more than this, and no one has the resources in this country to do that for every riding, so it's entirely up to you. Pay attention to the candidates, the lawn signs (only ones on private property, though, candidates can spam public property as much as they want), how many people come out to events, etc. If you can't do that, you should frankly just vote the way you feel is right.
Organized strategic voting doesn't work. It has never worked. Anyone telling you otherwise is selling snake oil.
gutter_trash
Banned
OP, you asked what is the Bloc's purpose this time for 2015.
The Answer is that they have been reduced to as the spokesperson mouth piece for the provincial opposition party (Parti Quebecois) in Ottawa .
The irony is that Bloc uses catch phrases like "defending the interests of Quebec in Ottawa"
while provinciallly Quebec is currently ruled by the most Federalist iteration of the Quebec Liberals. Premiere Couillard is even more Federalist than Jean Charest ever was.
But Gilles Duceppe is not going to Ottawa to defend the sitting Liberal Quebec majority government.
Gilles is going to Ottawa to promote the PQ and PKP who are sitting in opposition in Quebec City
The Answer is that they have been reduced to as the spokesperson mouth piece for the provincial opposition party (Parti Quebecois) in Ottawa .
The irony is that Bloc uses catch phrases like "defending the interests of Quebec in Ottawa"
while provinciallly Quebec is currently ruled by the most Federalist iteration of the Quebec Liberals. Premiere Couillard is even more Federalist than Jean Charest ever was.
But Gilles Duceppe is not going to Ottawa to defend the sitting Liberal Quebec majority government.
Gilles is going to Ottawa to promote the PQ and PKP who are sitting in opposition in Quebec City
It'll be interesting to see how my riding (Peterborough) turns out this time. Our current conservative MP is I think still trying to appeal his electoral fraud conviction, but he won't be able to run for at least this election. Dean is terrible and I'm glad he's gone.
killer rin
Member
True, which is why I said I would have to wait to see how things play out. Looking at the votes from the last election in my riding the NDP was in second a couple thousand short of winning. and aside from the last ten years, historically my riding is Liberal/NDP. Nothing can be predicted until the end, and only after looking at the general field of everything going on.
That said, my personal political beliefs does line up NDP/Liberal and i'm about 50/50 between who I'm voting for between them, so if it seems to swing in one of those parties direction it will be factored in to my decision.
But the incumbent government lowered corporate taxes with little to no effect on the overall economy. In fact, we have one of the lowest -- if not the lowest -- corporate tax rate of the G7 and we're still in a recession with anemic growth in the previous years.
The problem with talking about the corporate tax rate is that it is taxed on profit and not on gross income. That means the macroeconomic effect of corporate taxes is small because it does not determine whether a business is viable but merely degrees of profitability.
Sorry, but I'm pretty passionate about macroeconomics.
Scarborough—Agincourt. It's been Liberal since it was created in 1988 and the NDP always places a distant 3rd (except when the Right was being split, the NDP was 4th).
I'm not liking how Mulcair cancelled his trip to Vancouver when it became clear that the election will be called on this Sunday. He then flies to Gatineau, Quebec to kick off his election. Is anybody worried that a NDP government will be too invested in Quebec at the expense of other provinces ? It would make sense given that Quebec basically turned all orange last federal election and NDP would obviously want to cater to their supporters... who happen to show significant support in Quebec. At least Liberal's Trudeau came to Vancouver this weekend and also kicked off his campaign here as well. I just really want to see a government that actually cares about western Canada in a non-oil-loving sort of way. Harper didn't care for western Canada. He only cared for Alberta. The other parties have always just cared about central Canada and that's it.
gutter_trash
Banned
Quebec for the NDP goes likes this: Montreal is Liberal vs NDP . Outside of Montreal it is NDP vs Bloc. Quebec City + Beauce it's Conservatives vs NDP
The NDP have 3 different opponents in different regions of the Province. Currently the NDP is the only party competitive in all regions.
Liberals are confined to Montreal and it's Suburbs,
Conservatives are confined to Quebec City, Beace and old areas of the defunct Credit Social / Union Nationale / ADQ areas.
Bloc support are confined to their present incumbent ridings and also depends how Gilles' return affects the race.
The NDP's fight in BC is simpler. It's vs Liberals in urban areas and it's vs Conservatives in rural areas. Elizabeth May is all alone, nobody cares
Less of a chance if you don't translate your interest into action.
I'm scottish
gutter_trash
Banned
the current NDP is no longer Left wing but now Center-Left
all ltraditional Left wing parties that never governed end up watering down to the Center when they realize they have to govern for the first time
all ltraditional Left wing parties that never governed end up watering down to the Center when they realize they have to govern for the first time
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Yeah, theirs are uniform regional swing. I don't think they have a dummy in their model for star candidates. So I'm not convinced that their models are all that great. But I actually suspect that a uniform swing model with a few common-sense dummies for, say, incumbent scandal; major riding-specific disruption; star challenger; incumbent promoted to cabinet; etc. would be pretty good at predicting even absent riding-specific polling. The most common interpretation of voting behaviour is that the bulk of the intent behind someone's vote in a parliamentary system is for the party they're voting for, rather than the person they're voting for, so we would expect models to still perform pretty well if they could account for most of the party-level factors. Uniform swing is still definitely the most powerful individual predictor.
On the substance of strategic voting, I'm of two minds. I agree that organized strategic voting is probably folly. I think, as with most vote aggregation issues in social choice theory, you can get contrived examples where it works and contrived examples where it doesn't. And I guess the risk with any kind of group behaviour thing is that if large numbers of people do vote strategically, then you get the unintended consequence of the "true" winner losing because all their supporters ditched them for a compromise candidate. There are risks like that polls will be reweighted each election depending on the degree to which results diverge from previous polls, so even the "answer the polling company sincerely, vote strategically" thing can backfire.
I've rarely voted strategically myself, although I can think of one case where I did. In 2004, my riding had no incumbent. The results were: CPC 39%; LPC 35%; NDP 23%. The exact same three candidates ran in the 2006 election. My general sense was that at the national level, the Liberals were likely to decline a bit, while the mood of my province seemed pretty neutral, so I expected about the same results in the race. The LPC candidate was one of those blue-liberal chamber of commerce types, so not normally the person I'd vote for personally. On the other hand, there was no reason to believe that the NDP would have a giant wave, so essentially if I were to have voted NDP, it'd be a losing vote. Not that there isn't a reason to do that occasionally, especially w/r/t the party subsidies from Elections Canada. But I expected that the race would be close, and so strategic voting on a personal level made sense to me. It turns out in the end that the CPC candidate got a few point bump (44-33-21), roughly in line with the national swing, and the candidate I voted for lost. Regardless, I don't think given the information I had that voting strategically was an "error". Of course, it's unusual that you have the exact same candidates running in an election two years apart with relatively little national movement and no local issues, so this is pretty non-generalizable to broader applicability.
Oooh I missed this part. You're in Alberta, right? I thought that the 1abvote initiative actually got some traction.
I don't watch a lot of TV but I listen to the radio, and if the TV ads are anything like the radio ones I seriously need to get into political marketing as a career. Holy christ the Trudeau attack ads are terrible. They are cringingly bad. Quotes taken out of context, ridiculous assertions: YES he said he would send warm clothing to the middle east, JUST LIKE THE CURRENT GOV'T IS ALREADY DOING - that does not make sending winter jackets his plan to fight ISIS! Holy jumped up jesus that is a stupid assertion.
I don't know what bothers me more - that someone was paid to make these ads, or that there are people they will work on. The only thing keeping me from jerking the wheel to the left when I hear one of these ads is the hope that the only people taking them seriously are people who were already voting Conservative anyway.
I cannot imagine how embarrassing these ads must be to actual conservatives. I'm sure they'd prefer Harper's ads address people's real concerns about the economy, or the budget, or point out actual flaws in his opponents platforms aside from "the marijuanas", rather than being "OMG Trudeau is so young look at his haaaiiiir he's not ready!"
I don't know what bothers me more - that someone was paid to make these ads, or that there are people they will work on. The only thing keeping me from jerking the wheel to the left when I hear one of these ads is the hope that the only people taking them seriously are people who were already voting Conservative anyway.
I cannot imagine how embarrassing these ads must be to actual conservatives. I'm sure they'd prefer Harper's ads address people's real concerns about the economy, or the budget, or point out actual flaws in his opponents platforms aside from "the marijuanas", rather than being "OMG Trudeau is so young look at his haaaiiiir he's not ready!"
gutter_trash
Banned
the NDP have worked with the Liberals in past minority government situations. (Pearson + Douglas = Canada Health Act) (Trudeau + Lewis = Petro Canada)
whether people elect NDP or Liberal MPs, both can and have historically been able to work together on some key issues.
But, a a Bloc MP takes away a potential seat from either Liberal or NDP = it helps the Conservatives. The Bloc is currently mostly competitive in NDP ridings exclussively
oddly enough, Jack Layton was responsible for bringing down minority Paul Martin then resulted propping up a 9 year Conservative regime.
whether people elect NDP or Liberal MPs, both can and have historically been able to work together on some key issues.
But, a a Bloc MP takes away a potential seat from either Liberal or NDP = it helps the Conservatives. The Bloc is currently mostly competitive in NDP ridings exclussively
oddly enough, Jack Layton was responsible for bringing down minority Paul Martin then resulted propping up a 9 year Conservative regime.
Also PLEASE can we get a coalition Liberal/NDP (hell, add in Green, too)? The left vote being split has given us Conservative governments for more than a decade, even though they only receive like 30% of the popular vote
Trudeau already rejected a potential coalition government with the NDP
But hey, now the election is really under way... maybe minds will be changed due to various circumstances unforeseen before. I do wish for a coalition government between the two as well.
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