Wait, going Conservative? Didn't GTA suburbs go blue last election, or was it only areas outside of the GTA?
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
- Start date
- Status
Wait, going Conservative? Didn't GTA suburbs go blue last election, or was it only areas outside of the GTA?
matthewwhatever
Member
...what colour do you think the Conservatives are?
Thinking about it, I can't see how this can end without a minority goverment. Conservatives have 30% of the votes, locked. These people won't vote for any other party (maybe some would if it was still the Chretien/Martin Liberals). Good for the CPC, but this time they have little room to grow. After 10 years, swing voters want a change. Problem is the remaining votes are mostly split between two parties, and I don't think one will be weak enough to give the other a majority. Not to mention the Greens will split the votes even more some provinces like BC, and in Quebec the Bloc will likely do the same.
TheRagnCajun
Member
The radio ad is funny, because one voice asks 'what experience does Justin have in balancing the budget?'. If the budget officer is right, the conservative government will post another deficit for 2015. That will make for 8 years of consecutive deficits. So I would say Harper's governemnt isn't really the expert on the matter.
matthewwhatever
Member
I just found an interesting article on Macleans about the path to victory for each party. Right now, it's hard to see any of them getting anywhere close, but a lot could change in 11 weeks. As it points out in the second paragraph, the last several elections -- federally and provincially -- have seen things change very rapidly, so the same could happen here.
That said, while I doubt that they'd ever admit it, I don't think the Conservatives would mind a minority Parliament followed by another election in a year. They'll be the only party to come out of this election not in debt. The only reason they wouldn't want that would be that it would tarnish Harper a little -- and even then, it's not like there's anyone poised to unseat him if/when he loses.
gutter_trash
Banned
this is the prime reason why Harper has been hammering anti-Justin ads for months because their main competitor in suburban Ontario are the Liberals.
Conservatives are aiming at taking as mean suburban Ontario seats possible without needing to fight much at all in other provinces.
Not sure how Premiere Wynne's involvement will help or hurt Justin. Ontario GAF, is Wynne liked now or not?
Alright. "Staying" conservative then.
I don't know what the fuck my fellow Ontarians see in Harper. It's like they can't see anything beyond the ads he puts out. Last time it was the "only visiting" bullshit with Ignatieff that they bought hook, line, and sinker.
Of course, nothing scares suburbanites like an ad with a woman having breakfast with her daughter, reading newspaper headlines about the political opposition, wondering if she'll be able to feed her family if they get elected.
Anyway, myself, I'm deep in the red/orange area of Toronto.
Harper uses trickery to come up with fake surpluses. Basically, they're destroying the safety cushions the Liberals managed to construct years ago. Martin may have been a shit leader, but he knew what he was doing economically.
gutter_trash
Banned
so the Maclean's debate is on the same night as the Trump show Republican debate
are the people at Maclean's daft? The media are not even going to care about the Maclean's debate. The interweebs will be allover Donald Trump following all the zingers, punch-lines and comebacks.
Heck, as a Canadian, I will be watching the Trump reality show on Thursday night (for comedy purposes)
are the people at Maclean's daft? The media are not even going to care about the Maclean's debate. The interweebs will be allover Donald Trump following all the zingers, punch-lines and comebacks.
Heck, as a Canadian, I will be watching the Trump reality show on Thursday night (for comedy purposes)
Alright. "Staying" conservative then.
I don't know what the fuck my fellow Ontarians see in Harper. It's like they can't see anything beyond the ads he puts out. Last time it was the "only visiting" bullshit with Ignatieff that they bought hook, line, and sinker.
Of course, nothing scares suburbanites like an ad with a woman having breakfast with her daughter, reading newspaper headlines about the political opposition, wondering if she'll be able to feed her family if they get elected.
Anyway, myself, I'm deep in the red/orange area of Toronto.
Harper uses trickery to come up with fake surpluses. Basically, they're destroying the safety cushions the Liberals managed to construct years ago. Martin may have been a shit leader, but he knew what he was doing economically.
What the heck, southwestern Ontario. Why are you guys so conservatives ?
I'm not an expert, but I think age demo has something do with it, though not entirely.
It's always been Liberal in mine. My entire suburb is NDP or Liberal projections.
Agriculture. But notice it gets red/orange against towards industrial Windsor.
Impeccable
Member
It's all farmers, old people and wealthy people (From the nuclear plant) around here. My vote is always a silent poof in the wind here.
I never understood low voter turnouts. I even went to advance polls in 2013 for BC because I would be out of the country. Everybody was talking about how it was time for the Liberals to lose and how the NDP were going to wipe the floor with them, especially with the rumors of infighting within the Liberal party or something. Voter turnout was 57% and the Liberals had the majority government and there was outrage everywhere. It was kind of silly.
Farmers who don't realize they're voting against their own self interest by continually voting CPC. My home town is steeped in tobacco farming, used to go Liberal (even had Bob Speller, Agriculture Minister as our MP for a while) and they tossed him out in favour of Diane Finley who didn't originally live in the riding
Young people don't think their vote is worth anything, so they don't vote.
Imagine how left the results would skew if young people actually got out and voted?
The big conservative shift happened when the Reform Party, I mean Conservatives found and rode the hell out of the Sponsorship Scandal.
They successfully painted the Liberals as a corrupt and entitled party that needed to be kicked out of office.
At this point the Conservatives probably have five times the amount of corruption under their belt (Senate Scandal, to begin with?), and a staggering sense of entitlement, but the NDP and Liberals can't seem to change their public perception. They don't have the cut-throat political strategists needed.
I'd imagine if some YT celeb made a Kony 2012 style video about Harper right before the election day, the youth could be out in spades (18 - 20 demo specifically).
Of course, that would mean half of the information in the doc being filled with a lot of impractical and biased bs too.
You mean just like Conservative ads and pamphlets?
Yes and no.
Like, I'd imagine the BS being more simplified to analogies and cater more to emotio--
Wait
Those are Conservative ads.
Alright. "Staying" conservative then.
I don't know what the fuck my fellow Ontarians see in Harper. It's like they can't see anything beyond the ads he puts out. Last time it was the "only visiting" bullshit with Ignatieff that they bought hook, line, and sinker.
Haha, yes this is what I mean.
To be fair about Ontario and the GTA suburb area: it has a trend of swinging between Liberals and Conservatives. If I remember correctly, most of the voters in this area are Blue Liberals, and gaining their support was critical for Mulroney and Chretien majorities. This is also a province that almost swung towards Tory and Hudak in previous provincial elections, with the GTA electing both Ford and Tory as mayors.
Still scratching my head at how Wynne got elected though.
killer rin
Member
Alright. "Staying" conservative then.
I don't know what the fuck my fellow Ontarians see in Harper. It's like they can't see anything beyond the ads he puts out. Last time it was the "only visiting" bullshit with Ignatieff that they bought hook, line, and sinker.
Of course, nothing scares suburbanites like an ad with a woman having breakfast with her daughter, reading newspaper headlines about the political opposition, wondering if she'll be able to feed her family if they get elected.
Anyway, myself, I'm deep in the red/orange area of Toronto.
Harper uses trickery to come up with fake surpluses. Basically, they're destroying the safety cushions the Liberals managed to construct years ago. Martin may have been a shit leader, but he knew what he was doing economically.
I really hope that Ontario realizes the failure of Harper and the Conservatives this time around... but I don't really have much faith in us :/
Yeah that timeline about lines up. That said, provincially I've never seen it be anything but hardcore blue in my 30 years. If TPP was done publicly and people knew what it was going to do, these areas would shift to at least red. Except maybe dairy farmers.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
It's because Liberal numbers are so low rather than Conservative numbers so high.
Situation A: NDP loses 5% of vote to Liberals. Conservative vote stays the same. A lot of GTA ridings go Liberal.
Situation B: Liberals lose 5% of vote to the NDP. Conservative vote stays the same. A lot of GTA ridings go Conservative.
Even though the Conservatives have the same exact people voting for them and the same exact number of people voting for them, in the second situation, they get 30 extra seats. All because of how fucked up our electoral system is. Conservatives got a respectable 45% of the vote in 2011, but now they are polling 30-33% but are expected to get a similar amount of seats, all because the Liberals went down with them.
Bad memories of Rae's NDP still lingering, and Wynne being a less scary choice than Hudak.
gutter_trash
Banned
is Wynne considered popular or not in Ontario right now?
She's kinda Meh right now. Ontario Liberals have mostly been benefiting from decade old grudges that Ontarians have been holding against the PC's and the NDP. (Due to Mike Harris and Bob Rae, respectively)
Three Hundred and Eight must be taken with a huge grain of salt if not outright ignored.
Now that the extremely popular ex-Surrey Mayor Diane Watts is running for the Conservatives, her halo effect and likely campaigning throughout all the ridings in Surrey makes it significantly more likely that Conservatives will do well in this area.
Oh no ! Really ? I didn't know Diane Watts is running for the Conservatives. I'm very disappointed in her now
I thought she was more progressive...Sorta neutral territory.
The opposition is still calling for her head over the gas plant scandal, even though they promised to do the exact same thing that she did in that previous election campaign.
2011 Ontario election...
All Parties: "We'll cancel the hated gas plants!"
Liberals get elected and cancel the gas plants.
Opposition Parties: "Look at those corrupt Liberals, cancelling the gas plants for votes!"
Coldnoodle
Member
Hudak got a lot of shit for the job plan he brought to the table, because of the cuts suggested to stimulate it.
He was like... a lesser Mike Harris.
Not really. She was the better option at the time, though, even with the heat Dalton McGuinty received toward the end there.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
I know I'm coloured by my whacky Ontario Liberal hate, but to give a more pessimistic opinion, I don't think Wynne is going to do her federal counterparts any favours.
In Ontario elections, there are no spending limits for third party advertisers. Unions, corporations, associations, other non-party entities can spend as much money as they please (American style). And the unions did abuse this loophole, mainly to stop Hudak. The Liberals had a lot of ground game and coasted to victory, with the help of a huge leftist plank.
Ever since then, Wynne picked the wrong fights, with the very people that elected her (unions and progressives) and opinions quickly soured. In September, if talks continue to stall, there will be a huge province-wide teacher strike which is not going to do any favours for the Liberal brand. Trudeau might lose a lot of votes on the left wing.
I want to say that people would be ignoring provincial politics while a federal campaign is going on, but how can you ignore a teacher's strike if you have children?
It doesn't help that Wynne publicly associated herself with Trudeau and is actively campaigning for him (which I personally think is very inappropriate, albeit I agree with her reasoning).
Of course, in a best case scenario, the talks would conclude on a positive note and none of this doomsday stuff would happen.
Hm. I suppose it has to be a special kind of awful to lose against the Ontario Liberal's track record
The Ontario NDP was leading the Liberals during the last provincial poll (Forum) at the beginning of July too.
matthewwhatever
Member
Harper has taken to calling Trudeau simply "Justin" in all of his stump speeches.
I'm not sure if he's being more or less insulting than Mulcair, who can't even bring himself to say Trudeau's name.
Either way, I think it says a lot about how petty both men are -- and shows that temperamentally, there's not a whole lot of difference between the two of them.
Hm. I suppose it has to be a special kind of awful to lose against the Ontario Liberal's track record
The specter of Mike Harris will hang over this province for a good long while.
I can't believe
or maybe I can
Besides the youth not thinking it makes a difference, another thing is that it seems that they just don't care. I know most of my friends mostly don't give a crap who's running the country. I used to be like them, but the only reason I started thinking about politics is because I ended up reading a little more about it after joining GAF.
A few commentors on various news articles have said that Mulcair is like the left's Stephen Harper. There's certainly some validity in the statement, but I'm not sure if it holds past surface characteristics between the two leaders.
From a strategic point of view, the NDP know they have to keep Trudeau and the Liberals to the side, because they can't fight the same two-front campaign that the Conservatives are doing. Both the NDP and Conservatives know that the Liberals, ironic given the drubbing they got for having "no policies", have the best, most sane platform out of the three parties. Trying to debate on policy is not going to work, but isolating the Liberals' message will.
CitizenVectron
Member
I'm not saying I believe this, but I guarantee people in the NDP and CPC don't believe the Liberals have the most sane platform. That's why the different parties have different platforms, because they believe in them.
As for Mulcair not mentioning Trudeau, it's a normal tactic used in elections with 3 parties. You target the guy in charge to make it look like it's really just between you two.
gutter_trash
Banned
Harper's constant attacks on Trudeau has backfired and propped up NDP to 1st
If anyone is to blame for NDP going 1st, you can blame Harper
If anyone is to blame for NDP going 1st, you can blame Harper
User 479360
Banned
I don't know if I'll even bother voting. They're all idiots.
While it may be premature to say that Muclair is merely Harper's left-wing counterpart, let's just say I won't be surprised to see the continued expansion of the PMO's powers if the NDP do form government.
Hm, perhaps I should've said 'balanced' instead of 'sane'. Poor choice of words on my part.
I don't actually know a whole lot about them but Queen Elizabeth seems really wise when she speaks. I think I saw her lay the smackdown on Harper in a CBC article a while back and I was like god damn.
They seemed pretty good, judging from isidewith. I hope they get seats.
- Status