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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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L

Loudninja

Member
GhaleonEB said:
15.5m early votes cast, according the midday update. It's going to crush the 2012 figure at this point.


The boundaries drawn for the districts Dems need to take would like to have a word with you. I really don't think looking at national trends helps when so many were walled off to concentrate what are now Trump die hards.



Still way too many undecideds in these polls. Who are these people?
Click to expand...
Me,I voted for Hillary but I am still quite undecided!
 
V

Vyrance

Member
adam387 said:
So some Florida early voting things:

Dems are now tied in the early vote after 3 days. This is a good thing. GOP usually has a massive lead in absentee. They did not this year. But, the fact that the party registration is 41/41/18 doesn't tell the whole story. A plurality of Puerto Rican voters are registered as no party affiliation. Also, 20% of African American voters are NPA.

The counties in which Democrats are over performing our registration (I included the total number of votes out of each county from 2012)

Alachua (120k)
Sarasota (207k)
Palm Beach (601k)
Broward (757k)
Orange (464k)

The counties in which Republicans are over performing their registrations

Holmes (8k)
Dixie (6.9k)
Okeechobee (12k)
Glades (4k)
Baker (11k)

We're also turning out more voters who wouldn't pass a likely voter screens than the GOP is.
Click to expand...

Where do you get these numbers from, I was curious how my county was doing (St. Lucie)
 
K

Kangi

Member
And for a quick reference on the Q-Pac numbers:

Cvy-arNWEAAiHsl.jpg
 
R

rjinaz

Member
GhaleonEB said:
15.5m early votes cast, according the midday update. It's going to crush the 2012 figure at this point.


The boundaries drawn for the districts Dems need to take would like to have a word with you. I really don't think looking at national trends helps when so many were walled off to concentrate what are now Trump die hards.



Still way too many undecideds in these polls. Who are these people?
Click to expand...

Good to see Arizona is already at nearly 60% of 2012 early numbers. Dems are still 29k behind though.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
Michelle Obama is rocketing Hillary to the finish line like no one else can right now, not even Hillary herself. She' laying the case for her incredibly.
 
Wiz

Wiz

Member
whyamihere said:
!!!!!!!!
Click to expand...

I always wonder why Aleppo is doing better in GA than other battlegrounds. Could it be "reasonable republicans" or "millenials" choosing him over Trump/Clinton?

I doubt he really does 8% on election day, which means his supporters could turn the tide either way.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
Johnson's percent in Georgia seems a little too high and if it is too high I would bet money the majority of that correction would go to Clinton
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Let's look at major Republicans since 1994:

Hastert: Repeated child rapist
Newt: Broke up with his wife and cheated on her because she had cancer, stole millions from government and from donors.
Clarence Thomas: Piece of shit sexual assaulter.
Dick Cheney: War criminal
Tom DeLay: Felon who knew about Hastert and didn't care.
Paul Ryan: Bowed to fascism.
George W. Bush: Invaded Iraq over a personal feud.

This party has been rotten for so long.
 
G

googleplex

Member
Michelle Obama is so amazing. I don't blame her for not wanting to get into the ugly business of politics. But God Damn we need someone like her in public service.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
whyamihere said:
So if McGinty has a solid lead in a voter file poll, I'm now pretty convinced that Dems will at least win 51 seats with WI, IL, IN, NV, PA, and NH. NC and MO could go either way but would be icing.
Click to expand...

100% agree. Hard to imagine any of the ones you list here being lost by the dems, simply given the headwinds at the top of the ticket. Indiana is the exception but it looks safe given that Bayh has consistently lead and the IN GOP is relatively unpopular at the moment.

It's basically down to two real races, and one long shot. I still think Murphy can do it.

Big stories on November 9th will be 1) how pollsters systemically missed Hispanic voters and 2) the utterly shocking turnout gap. Big discussion on whether the final numbers out of Texas or Florida are the ones which should be scariest for the GOP going forward.

Manmademan said:
Why? I think no one wants to be the first guy to stick his neck out on something impossible, then have to eat crow on November 9th.

It's far easier to hedge bets and play it conservative and act surprised when a flip happens, then have to walk back a narrative like Gallup did in 08 or Nate bronze did in the primaries.
Click to expand...

It's actually quite difficult to mathematically reconcile the current distribution of partisan districts, the current polling, and the convential wisdom about a turnout boost. Basically, we current have Hillary by +7/8. Good chance that means she wins +10/11. So that means the House gap is roughly +6/7. Which means GOP loses like 60+ seats in an even distribution.

Basically, in order to keep the house, Republicans need one of the following to be true

1) Trump does better (not going to happen)
2) No turnout gap (completely inconsistent with early voting)
3) Unusually large ticket splitting (unlikely in the House, especially given the current split with Republicans. But probably the GOP house's best shot)
4) Weird distribution in votes for Democrats (Unlikely given Trump's well-established weakness in suburbs, but also possible).
 
K

kirblar

Member
All that focus on Republican voters was for a very good reason. When you've capped your own side, the only way to improve your margins is to drop the other side down.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Flash-forward to Election Night:

Wolf Blitzer: "it is 10PM on the East Coast, and Georgia and Texas are TOO CLOSE TO CALL!"

PoliGAF: "HA!"
FreeRepublic: "we still have a path!"
 
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