Apparition
Member
I think performance per watt should be a much better measure. The latest Vega, for instance, is said to be quite power-hungry.
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[golem.de with Shawn Layden] Sony bets on real PS 5 instead of console revolution
- Thread starter c0de
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I think performance per watt should be a much better measure. The latest Vega, for instance, is said to be quite power-hungry.
Fredrik
Member
10 years?? We can almost be certain that it gets a mid gen upgrade in about 3 years just like PS4. If not it'll be in the second place for power for 8 years since we can assume XB2 to arrive at the latest 2 years after PS5.
I'm not sure what each new year will give them, maybe 2tf going by current trends on Pro and X? If Sony keeps updating every 3 years and MS every 4 years and if we start counting from PS4 Pro it would give us this scenario.
2016 - PS4 Pro (4tf)
2017 - XB1X (6tf)
2019 - PS5 (10tf)
2021 - XB2 (14tf)
2022 - PS5 Pro (16tf)
Etc
They probably won't be quite that predictable but it gets you a rough idea what might happen if this upgrade trend continues, which I believe it will. Without the upgrades it might put you in a really tough spot going in first in a new generation if it ends up being a long gen. The upgrades level out any advantage over time.
PS5 at 10TF?
Didn't the PS3 have like .25TF and the PS4 at 1.84TF?
PS5 at 10TF-12TF would be unacceptable and I'm sure Sony won't do that.
Unacceptable why? You can't look at the multipliers between generations before and then forecast the next generation - that is not how it works.
Like they do today, but typically to keep a consistent 30fps rate means uncapped frame rates that spend much of their time higher. People with VRR can take advantage of this with 40-50fps for extended periods, or the game could offer optional rate caps (30/35/40) for consistency and you'd still have the benefit of gradual change in rare situations where the game drops below the target.
I have no way to know whether there are other issues involved that keep a variable rate from working as it should (I assume few games are designed for or tested with GSync), or whether the general consumer would agree with your assessment.
Bitch Pudding
Member
For the fun of it, compare the two consoles' CPUs while you're at it.
There's more to a console's power than just TF, like there's more to the quality of a digital camera than megapixels.
Plus, Moore's law simply doesn't apply anymore.
Tl;dr: prepare to be disappointed by a $399 2019s console - if all you care about is TF.
Fredrik
Member
PS4 was the first one that was basically a PC, if they intend to have PS4 BC then we can assume that they'll keep using PC parts for PS5 too, which will put them roughly in that area when it comes to power unless AMD sits on some crazy secret tech which imo is unlikely.
This is also why console tech is so incredibly boring now. PC gamers with updated rigs already beat the upcoming and probably extremely hyped up PS5. Console+PC gamers will just go "meh" whatever Sony shows. And as long as that stands we'll always have the definitive versions on PC. It was so much more fun when consoles were more unique techwise when we couldn't really compare the hardware with PC hardware.
Shin
Banned
Speaking of PSVR/2, looking at current generation Ryzen (1700) and the necessity of hitting 90FPS it brings us to a resolution of 2560 x 1440.
So what are we looking at realistically for PSVR2's resolution.
PSVR 960 x 1080 per eye (single 1920x1080 screen)
Rift 1080 x 1200 per eye (two screens, combined 2160 x 1200)
Vive 1080 x 1200 per eye (two screens, combined 2160 x 1200)
So what are we looking at realistically for PSVR2's resolution.
PSVR 960 x 1080 per eye (single 1920x1080 screen)
Rift 1080 x 1200 per eye (two screens, combined 2160 x 1200)
Vive 1080 x 1200 per eye (two screens, combined 2160 x 1200)
ScepticMatt
Member
PS3->PS4: 7.36x
PS4->12TF: 6.52x
13.5 TF would be an equivalent percentage jump, 12 TF doesn't seem too far off tbh.
What's your definition of a PC?
Is tablet a PC? 😗
Hm no one did a survey with side-by-side yetI think you will be in the great minority on that one.
I think you will be in the great minority on that one.
This depends on your definition of a PC. To me, it could be one.
Ps4 pro could have existed if hd 7970 had been used with the base ps4 .
Hoping 4k display or better with proper eye tracking for foveated rendering.
Fredrik
Member
Personal Computer
Seriously though I obviously mean that consoles and PCs share the same type of CPU/GPU. There are zero surprises.
And I mean, I can already play typical console multiplats with less input lag, higher framerate, better graphics, higher resolution, free online, using the same controllers on a PC... So what will get me wowed at the PS5/XB2 reveals except maybe a few launch exclusives and a bunch of target renders of exclusives I'll play in 3 years or so?
I miss the Crazy Ken surprises!!
With 7nm seemingly barely making it in time for a holiday 2019 console I believe Sony will break tradition and release the PS5 in spring of 2020. PS2 released in March 2000 in Japan. Would also allow them to have mature stocks come holidays 2020 and any child deceases out of the way. It would also ease it up for holiday 2019 releases and the development of their PS5 editions.
MilkyJoe
Member
that's some wishful thinking
Bitch Pudding
Member
I think both Sony and MS will go for a 3 year cycle from now on and only opt for 4 years if the required technology isn't available for mass production before that.
ScaryShark
Banned
2019 seems early for a sequel to a system selling the way it is.
Fredrik
Member
Yeah I think it's the only way they won't fall behind now that they jumped in on the upgrades first, Sony will definitely be first to jump in on next gen so it'll be the weakest too, but the PS5 Pro will fix it.
Then it's up to us to decide if we want to buy them all or just buy the upgrades kind of like many do with S-models of iPhone.
Shin
Banned
?
I'd love a March launch, but that would mean they would have to announce it at E3 2018, because PS Meeting in January/February should be too close to the launch.
People need some months to prepare finances and the likes (generally speaking).
PS1 was selling well, yet they still announced PS2 and in a shorter time-frame.
Don't expect crazy miracles. 12TF GPU, 3-4x CPU power and 0.5 TB/s bandwith will provide big jump over base PS4
, and will not break the wallets of gamers.
I believe there will be massive changes to how AMD designs their GPUs. AMD said that in the long run it would make more sense to stop increasing die sizes as the larger the die, the worse the overall yields are (less large chips can be made from the same wafer size than small chips) hence, their future direction might be to actually have multiple core GPUs (several smaller chips make up one die) that will be connected through infinity fabric.
I think it's very likely PS5 will utilize something similar.
Reference: https://www.overclock3d.net/news/cpu_mainboard/amd_reveals_a_exascale_mega_apu_in_a_new_academic_paper/1
I think it's very likely PS5 will utilize something similar.
Reference: https://www.overclock3d.net/news/cpu_mainboard/amd_reveals_a_exascale_mega_apu_in_a_new_academic_paper/1
Fredrik
Member
I'm not sure wishful is the right word. I'm not a fan of the upgrade idea, it just makes me spend twice as much as before on the hobby since I can't keep my wallet closed when new stuff comes out. :/
Apparition
Member
December 3, 2019 would mark the 25th anniversary of the PS1 launch in Japan. Seems like a great opportunity to announce some new hardware there.
Or you can just wait a few years and just buy the upgrade. I wonder how many initial sales would be lost because of that. Probably not to many but it would be an interesting problem for manufacturers
Or you can just wait a few years and just buy the upgrade. I wonder how many initial sales would be lost because of that. Probably not to many but it would be an interesting problem for manufacturers
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
The 7nm process goes into risk production THIS YEAR. You think high performance volume production won't be ready two years from now?
Both Sony and MS will NEVER miss a fall launch of their new console. They want to break sales records with their new shiny being the "fastest selling console ever".
If either one isn't ready for a fall 2019 launch, they'll delay and launch fall 2020. You can quote me on this.
Shin
Banned
Bandwidth starvation is real...
HBM3 taking it's sweet time...http://www.anandtech.com/show/11398...am-gddr6-added-to-catalogue-gddr5-gets-faster
Fredrik
Member
Yeah I hope I can do that, if I can I'll rather wait than buy hardware I know will be inferior when the most polished must have games arrive. Sitting with the original PS4 at this point is no fun, Horizon, Uncharted 4, Nier Automata, God of War, Gran Turismo Sport, Shenmue 3, Final Fantasy 7 Remake, Days Gone etc, the worst possible version on all of them. Bleh!
bitbydeath
Member
Yeah I hope I can do that, if I can I'll rather wait than buy hardware I know will be inferior when the most polished must have games arrive. Sitting with the original PS4 at this point is no fun, Horizon, Uncharted 4, Nier Automata, God of War, Gran Turismo Sport, Shenmue 3, Final Fantasy 7 Remake, Days Gone etc, the worst possible version on all of them. Bleh!
Too many games to catch-up on then though. (At least for me)
Prime crotch
Banned
2019 is way too early, the general public isn't even starving for a new console like they were when these new consoles came out, heck, a lot of big name titles are only coming out either on 2018 or 2019. I'd say 2021, a year or so after the biggest hyped titles are released so that they have time to let the dust settle.
bitbydeath
Member
People weren't starving when PS2 or PS3 came out either and their predecessors did just fine. That PS3 > PS4 wait though was some serious BS.
Yautja_Warrior
Member
I don't know, I think having similar power to a GTX 1080 Ti in a console would be pretty awesome tbh and would be a decent step up from even Xbox One X.
Power will depend on when PS5 is released but we are getting into really good PC levels of performance now and PC tech has been slowing down in recent years, with smaller jumps in performance with each new generation of CPU / GPU.
If you expect PS5 to be some crazy 20 Tflop beast then you might be disappointed because that would be on par with top end PC GPU's and no way they will use the latest tech because of price, they will make use of slightly older tech to keep the price lower.
Prime crotch
Banned
People were reaaaaaaally holding out for the ps2, specifically, it was a damned thirst. The PS3/360 era came about in a time when everyone was already done with the PS2 as it was. I just don't see that happening on the PS4 and Xbox 1 until after 2019.
edit
ne conceivable scenario for 2019 would be what we already had this gen though, a cross-gen plaftorm year or two, where titles still have to account for the previous genOmegaTreeFish
Banned
The problem is that games take longer and longer to make as they become bigger things. having a new gen every 6 years again seems crazy in terms of game development.
a 3 year cycle with upgrades and game support for latest 2 models might work better but that would be pretty boring and stunt inovaton on console design almost entirely. It would just be the same thing but more powerful as it has to be completely compatible with the prior model.
I think the pro and X are possibly just a one off thing because of the rise of 4k. Thats the only reason they really exist and its the audience who has those TVs that it really serves. I think next gen, unless some new TV tech arrives and takes hold, it will be a typical refresh where its smaller and more efficient.
Even saying 2020 seems to early to me but thats prob more to do with being 35 and my perception of time passing is so much faster than when I was younger and 3 years would feel forever away.
From a business perspective there is no need to introduce a new console until the market slows down enough and demands it. Maybe these 4k boxes will extend it even further because as 4k tvs become more popular and people want a more powerful console they can just upgrade to one of those instead.
Its all speculation from all of us at the moment but I personally find it hard to imagine a 3 year continuous cycler working very well at all. And starting a new gen every 6 years seems crazy to me. By this point in the 360's life cycles we were getting games on the regular that ran and god aweful framerates and I was drifting back towards PC. It feels like everything is still running just fine and looking more amazing than ever right now. Last year I had 60fps DOOM, this year Horizon which I found ran and a perfectly fine frame rate and looked amazing. This gen still has a TON to give and if you want that bit extra these 4k models can give you that.
Fredrik
Member
It'll be about twice as powerful, I don't know I think it's a relatively small jump at a new generation. :/
But this is unfortunately the reality I guess now when the upgrades fills in the gaps.
And a 1080ti powered console would be amazing today, but in 2-3 years? Nah.
This is why I want Crazy Ken back. Everybody thought Cerny was awesome, me too, but in hindsight PS4 is just plain boring and weak without any cool features except great design and was also replaced by another console just 3 years in. What's so great about that?
This generation has honestly been awful for early adopters. I would rather have payed more for a more powerful console from the start not in need of an update and a 5 year generation than this situation where you either pay another $399 or wait with a weak sauce console another 3 years.
Like I said, I'm not a fan of the upgrade idea.
Shin
Banned
Not to mention it took 5 years to develop the PS4 and that with the most used architecture known to mankind.
Cerny is great to listen to, but the product he put out isn't interesting at all IMO...then again we wouldn't want Sony to go broke.
farmerboy
Member
I'm assuming you meant "yield decreases"? Well I hope you did anyway ;-)
Fredrik
Member
It was great since it was so much ahead of XB1 while releasing the same year, but they were both weak and relatively boring. Then came the upgrade news which just made me pissed since many first party games were still unreleased when they started talking about it. Just made me wish I would've waited and bought a Pro instead. :/
Edit:
I guess XB1 owners aren't quite as pissed about XB1X, 4 years is okay I think. But MS delayed the XB1 launch with a year in Sweden! So we're essentially talking about 3 years there too just as with Pro.
Omnistalgic
Member
understand that you are probably speaking for a minority in the console world. People like games and are not concerned about power. "PS4 is boring" is 100% forum enthusiast talk. Most gamers are certainly impressed with stuff like UC4, Until Dawn and Horizon.
I think Sony should stick with this design nature for PS5 really. It's a great baseline, not too expensive, and produced incredible looking games. Heck even the Pro was only $200 or less for many people who just traded up. Some got it for like $100 lol. Disagree with you guys completely, this gen is just getting started and 2017 has been incredible in game quality
Apparition
Member
The thing is that 4K isn't coming alone. The rise of 8K would provide a opportunity for another mid-gen upgrade. In a couple of years, we might see single PC GPUs capable of running 8K to some degree (1080 Ti SLI can run 8K to some degree sans any optimization; it is highly-unstable but with more optimization and some rendering tricks, I don't see why it is not doable).
I expect the PS5/XBOM2 to target 4K and increase the IQ/performance once 4K is truly mainstream and HDR support has matured.
The mid-gen upgrades will then go for 8K. Monitors and TVs that target that resolution are already coming out (albeit at crazy prices) so in 6-8 years, it would be affordable enough for enthusiasts.
Yeah, some would say 8K won't be needed but I suppose manufacturers would target that segment if there is enough interest. Marketing will always need a new buzzword to separate people and their money.
In any case, I don't think manufacturers would wait too long lest the other guys shoot first and leave them with no choice to respond sooner than later. The PS4 will still have a life in it just like the previous consoles continued to be supported well into the life of their successors.
OmegaTreeFish
Banned
If 8k arrives and starts to become mainstream like how 4k is then yes I could see a repeat. But without something like that arriving I have my doubts it will happen again.
Apparition
Member
Indeed. I agree with that. It's hard to predict the future and if people would see that value in 8K or not.
Fredrik
Member
Definitely they look awesome even though 30fps takes away some of the awesomeness for me. But the problem arise when they're supposed to show a generational jump with PS5 and people have got used to see PC or Pro/X footage for a few years. At 10-12tf it won't even be like a PC gaming rig today. Fast forward 2-3 years and we come to that "meh" situation again. I honestly think those generational jumps we used to get are a thing of the past now.
Prime crotch
Banned
Is 4k adoption rate even that big?
MilkyJoe
Member
They are the majority on sale here.
Currys for instance, UK electrical chain, of the 366 TVs they stock only 58 are 1080p
It's pretty much the default behind a certain screen size and budget from what I can tell