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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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T

Teggy

Member
So for the folks who don't think that Trump will be the nominee, what do you think is going to bring him down? What could he say at this point that is more outrageous than what he has already said? Is it just that you think that when other candidates drop out that enough of those votes will go to not-Trump? Does the math support that?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Teggy said:
So for the folks who don't think that Trump will be the nominee, what do you think is going to bring him down? What could he say at this point that is more outrageous than what he has already said? Is it just that you think that when other candidates drop out that enough of those votes will go to not-Trump? Does the math support that?
Click to expand...

Nothing will bring him down, it's just that Rubio will end up getting as many votes as him once Kasich, Walker, and others start dropping out.

Rubio currently: 7%
Plus Jeb's support of 10%
Plus Christie's 3.5%
Plus Perry's 1.3%
Plus Kasich's 4.5%
Plus Walker's 7.3%

Brings him to 33.6%. Hmm, he's going to need to get some of the Cruz/Fiorina/Paul/Huckabee voters actually (I'm thinking all the Carson voters will go to Trump and most of the Cruz voters too) and that might be hard... (this same summing applies to Jeb! as well)
 
D

Diablos

Member
What would be the first thing President Trump does, assuming he won?

He's either going to roll back Obama's immigration executive action or fuck with the ACA.

I'd think it would be immigration, because his inflammatory comments about illegals are also what really put him on the map.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Cant wait for that new Iowa pol today. I can smell it an outlier away.
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Des Monies Register poll is by far and away the most accurate and trusted poll of the Iowa Caucus. They are pretty much the only poll you need for Iowa. Their results aren't going to be an outlier.

The gold standard of Iowa polling. They were the first to pick up on the Obama rise in Iowa and said he was going to win the caucus and significantly when everyone else was pointing elsewhere after all.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Cheebo said:
Des Monies Register poll is by far and away the most accurate and trusted poll of the Iowa Caucus. They are pretty much the only poll you need for Iowa. Their results aren't going to be an outlier.
Click to expand...

I knew that. Just making things more fun and interesting. It should be good for Clinton or fire for Bernie
 
R

Retromelon

Member
NeoXChaos said:
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/239725-clinton-campaign-launches-nationwide-organizing-push

Stomped on you again ErasureAcer.
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This feud is by far my favorite thing about poligaf (except for hyliantom eternally explaining how important winning in 2016 for the supreme court is) Every new post has me emoting like sapiens' avatar
8BKiCcu.jpg
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
*facepalm*

Michael D. Brown, the former Federal Emergency Management Agency director who resigned in disgrace after criticisms of how he handled the storm, is also a climate change science denier, particularly on the idea that seems most relevant to his former profession: sea level rise.

In a longer interview with ThinkProgress about his post-Katrina life, Brown got into his controversial stance on climate change — namely, his opinion that it’s not a human-caused problem, or a big deal.

Brown isn’t so different from a lot of conservatives who deny the science of climate change. But as the former director of the agency that manages natural disasters, his position on the issue is notable. He also still gives speeches on emergency preparedness, and sometimes appears on Fox News to criticize FEMA policies. He might, then, at least acknowledge that some natural disasters — flooding, drought, and wildfires, for example — would get worse because of climate change, because those would undoubtedly place a strain on emergency response.
Click to expand...

“I suppose — and I don’t believe this — that if sea levels are rising, instead of lowering the sea level … we ought to figure out ways to mitigate and build better structures that will mitigate the effects of rising sea levels,” he said.
Click to expand...

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/28/3696490/michael-d-brown-katrina-sea-level-rise/

Why can't loading people into rockets and shooting them into orbit be an adequate punishment for dumb fucks?
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Retromelon said:
This feud is by far my favorite thing about poligaf (except for hyliantom eternally explaining how important winning in 2016 for the supreme court is) Every new post has me emoting like sapiens' avatar
8BKiCcu.jpg
Click to expand...

It should be a sticky in OT, entitled "2016: It's the Supreme Court, Stupid" (of course)
 
F

FloydtheFathead

Member
So question here? In response to the "Hulk Hogan wanting to be Trump's running mate.(oh Christ)Who would Trump even entertain as a V.P?

Would it be Cruz? It seems like that would be one possible person that he could pick that wouldn't piss off his supporters.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
FloydtheFathead said:
So question here? In response to the "Hulk Hogan wanting to be Trump's running mate.(oh Christ)Who would Trump even entertain as a V.P?

Would it be Cruz? It seems like that would be one possible person that he could pick that wouldn't piss off his supporters.
Click to expand...

I so badly want it to be Cruz. Something tells me that Trump would be clever enough to want to play the map or the demos; his (relative) silence on Kasich and Carson is pretty loud.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
I don't really know what that Iowa poll is going to say. I will say that a real fight between Bernie and Hillary - so long as they both keep it civilized - is probably for the best of the party.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
ErasureAcer said:
So I should love Scott Walker then? Get real.
Click to expand...

Democratic Primary Voters' Choice for Nominee in 2000 in NH

Bradley 44%
Gore 41

http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/09/24/president.2000/poll.gore.bradley/

Bradley started to gain momentum and the race become closer. A week before the caucus polls had it 40% to 49% in Gore’s favor. On January 23, 2000, a day before the primary polls had Al Gore winning by 2 or 3 points.
Click to expand...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Democratic_caucuses,_2000
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Fuck my state.

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article32738493.html

Thousands of people are on hand at South Carolina’s State House for the We Stand with God, Pro-Family Rally.

Former Texas governor Rick Perry and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott have addressed the crowd.
Thousands gather at the South Carolina State House on Saturday for the We Stand with God, Pro-Family Rally.

Ted Cruz also spoke at Saturday’s event, which began at 11 a.m.

Cruz said he would push for a constitutional amendment to protect states’ same-sex marriage bans.

He also railed against the Planned Parenthood videos that allegedly show staffers talking about selling fetal tissue. He said on his first day in office he would instruct the Department of Justice to investigate the organization.

Organizers say pastors from across the state are planning to discuss marriage and religious liberty. They say they planned this event after a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision regarding same-sex marriage.

Perry worked to whip up the crowd: “Jesus was angry. I’m angry. And I hope you’re angry.”

The first speaker, the Rev. Mark Harris, pastor of First Baptist Church Charlotte, said the rally is a sign of a spiritual awakening.

A much smaller African-American Christian unity rally was unfolding on the opposite side of the State House.

Many of downtown Columbia’s streets around the capitol grounds are blocked to traffic, and sides streets are packed with parked cars.

The crowds are dressed mostly in red, white and blue and taking advantage of social media to connect to supporters who aren’t at the site.
Click to expand...

Look at all that diversity!

Oh wait...
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Hillary campaign in full-on panic, spin the media that we aren't imploding, mode:
Hillary Clinton is resetting her campaign strategy with aggressive attacks against Republicans to move the conversation away from questions about the email controversy that has dogged her for months.

By comparing Republicans to terrorists and calling the GOP "the party of Trump," Clinton grabbed headlines and sought to assuage doubts about her campaign, even while it has lost ground in recent polls.

Democratic strategists say while her talking points are the same as they have been, her delivery, emphasis and posture has changed.

“The more the discussion is about the differences between her and the Republican field on women’s health or immigration, that’s far better turf for her to be fighting on than another news cycle on the emails or the server,” said longtime Democratic strategist Joe Trippi.

“This new, aggressive tack, I think, is smart because for two days, we’ve been talking about Hillary and the Republican field fighting on differences on women’s health, and not talking about [issues] that the Republicans would rather be fighting on.”

..

But her comment also changed the conversation to an issue that Clinton hopes can help fire up her base and thinks could be an asset come the general election.

Clinton supporters may have become “complacent” because of her large lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Trippi added. With that gap tightening and Biden looming somewhere on the horizon, Trippi believes help motivate her supporters.

The perceived inevitability of Clinton as the Democratic front-runner has taken recent hits.

More polls this week show her lead over Democratic challengers narrowing and a new Quinnipiac University poll found that when people were asked to describe Clinton with one word, 57 percent of those words are negative—“liar” and “dishonest” being the most chosen—or reference her email controversy.

And now, she faces the increasing prospect of a Biden bid.

“She knows what everyone else knows—that there is a perception that somehow she has lost inevitability and this will not be as easy as people thought. So her job is to make it appear that that is untrue,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic strategist who previously worked with Clinton but is not involved in the campaign.

“The fact that Biden is mentioned is an indication that there is some question about the inevitability factor, the nature of her campaign and whether she can successfully overcome the obstacles that Republicans will put in front of her during the upcoming hearings.”

How she addresses the email server controversy also has changed, appearing more conciliatory while answering questions about the issue this week.

Last week, she responded to reporters by shrugging, joking and saying average Americans don’t support the issue. But this week, she softened her approach.

“I know people have raised questions about my email use as secretary of State. I understand why, I get it. So here’s what I want the American people to know,” she said Wednesday in Iowa.

“My use of personal email was allowed by the State Department. It clearly wasn’t the best choice, I should have used two emails: one personal, one for work, and I take responsibility for that decision.”

She took a similar tone during the DNC Summer Meetings Friday in Minneapolis.

“I’m not frustrated,” she told reporters in a news conference after her speech, when asked about her reaction to continuing email questions.

“I’m trying to do a better job of explaining to people what is going on so there is not so much concern.”

Shortly after that, she was faced with a series of questions by Fox News’ Ed Henry, who has doggedly pressed her on the email issue before.“Let me answer one of your questions, because I think that’s what you are entitled to,” Clinton said with a smile.

A former Clinton campaign aide told The Hill that the “combativeness” by the campaign on the email questions “drowned out the campaign’s larger message of her candidacy.

He added that the campaign needs to be less defensive and more responsive on the email controversy, while also pushing through it and keeping the focus on her message to voters.

“You are starting to see a shift in tone,” he said.

“If they are less combative, I think that the other issues can break through. It’s breaking through on the ground, but in the national ecosystem, it wasn’t breaking through.”
Click to expand...
 
F

FloydtheFathead

Member
HylianTom said:
I so badly want it to be Cruz. Something tells me that Trump would be clever enough to want to play the map or the demos; his (relative) silence on Kasich and Carson is pretty loud.
Click to expand...

I think it would be Cruz too, he needs a politician that at least has some semblance of legitimacy (Cruz and the description of a legitimate politician in the same sentence.. ha) and Cruz is someone that his base could swallow. I think his chief of staff Omarosa would be okay with Cruz as well.

I love the fact that the one contestant on The Apprentice that everyone remembers is one that didn't even win the damn thing.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
I guess but what is best for the party?
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1) Ensuring that the nominee is tested

2) Having a cordial discourse on how to lead the country in comparison to the Republicans trying to outcrazy one another

3) If Clinton is the nominee then having a competitive primary will dispel the idea that she waltzed to the nomination and Bernie's presence very well could be pushing her to the left on some issues
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
I'm concerned that these manufactured scandals will cause Republicans to not recognize Hillary as the legitimate President of the United States when she's elected.

One difference I see between Republicans and Democrats is that Democrats do respect the office even if the guy holding it is from the other party.
 
P

PlayALLtheGames

Banned
I think it's interesting some of the responses to the Palin-Trump interview from people on the left, saying things like, "I want to dislike this interview but Trump makes good points" (referring to his comments about how the middle class, infrastructure, reforming the tax code and helping vets are key issues).

But people act as if we don't already hear lip service paid to these things. Republican lawmakers will tell you we need to fix them too, but we know how the story goes. When it comes to vote/fund, they hold bills hostage demanding absurd amendments or vote them down. When they're compelled to offer solutions to those problems, it's the same shit:

Fix middle class: lower taxes on the "job creators" and wait for trickle down.
Fix infrastructure: get gub'ment out of it
Reform tax code: lower taxes.
Help vets: ????

The one thing I will give Trump credit for is the comment about hedge funds needing to pay more taxes. I mean, that's a groundbreaking idea for the party of idiots, and I expect there were a few people watching that interview who felt light-headed and whose hearts almost seized at the mere suggestion.
 
T

teiresias

Member
Jack Remington said:
I'm concerned that these manufactured scandals will cause Republicans to not recognize Hillary as the legitimate President of the United States when she's elected.

One difference I see between Republicans and Democrats is that Democrats do respect the office even if the guy holding it is from the other party.
Click to expand...

I think Republicans have had this problem every since Reagan and Bush senior, though it's been played up even more to the base during the Obama administration.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Jack Remington said:
I'm concerned that these manufactured scandals will cause Republicans to not recognize Hillary as the legitimate President of the United States when she's elected.

One difference I see between Republicans and Democrats is that Democrats do respect the office even if the guy holding it is from the other party.
Click to expand...

Obama's approval ratings tell you all you need to know. A solid 35-40% of this country will never approve of Obama no matter what he does. Obama could find the cure for cancer and Republican/Independent leaning Republicans will still disapprove of him. I expect the same with Hillary. They will double down their tactics with her. Resurrecting all the 90's Bill mess.
 
J

JesseEwiak

Member
Jack Remington said:
I'm concerned that these manufactured scandals will cause Republicans to not recognize Hillary as the legitimate President of the United States when she's elected.

One difference I see between Republicans and Democrats is that Democrats do respect the office even if the guy holding it is from the other party.
Click to expand...

30-40% of the Republican Party since FDR believes any Democratic victory is illegitimate.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
teiresias said:
I think Republicans have had this problem every since Reagan and Bush senior, though it's been played up even more to the base during the Obama administration.
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I have spoken about this before and i will say now what i said then. Was bush respected? The argument that usually follows my query is, "bush was hated justly, he earned it" to which i respond, people on the other side will say the same thing about obama, re - fast and furious, solyndra, benghazi, and so on
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
"Selected, not elected."

DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe said:
"We will transform the anger about Florida into energy about politics," McAuliffe told a DNC organizational meeting. "We will prove there is victory after denial, democracy after Florida . . . justice after the Supreme Court."

"You know this: If Katherine Harris, Jeb Bush, Jim Baker and the Supreme Court hadn't tampered with the results, Al Gore would be president, George Bush would be back in Austin, and John Ashcroft would be home reading Southern Partisan magazine," McAuliffe roared.
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Senator/Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun said:
Let me say at the outset that this problem -- and it is a problem -- was caused in the first place when Congress advocated its Article 1, Section 8 authority under the Constitution and gave a president, who was not elected by the American people, the right to go on, on a free-for-all with a preemptory attack in Iraq. But that's beside us.
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http://www.newrepublic.com/article/mad-about-you
But perhaps most infuriating of all is the fact that liberals do not see their view of Bush given public expression. It's not that Bush has been spared from any criticism--far from it. It's that certain kinds of criticism have been largely banished from mainstream discourse. After Bush assumed office, the political media pretty much decided that the health of U.S. democracy, having edged uncomfortably close to chaos in December 2000, required a cooling of overheated passions. Criticism of Bush's policies--after a requisite honeymoon--was fine. But the media defined any attempt to question Bush's legitimacy as out-of-bounds. When, in early February, Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe invoked the Florida debacle, The Washington Post reported it thusly: "Although some Democratic leaders have concluded that the public wants to move past the ill will over the post-election maneuvering that settled the close Florida contest, McAuliffe plainly believes that with some audiences--namely, the Democratic base of activists he was addressing yesterday--a backward-looking appeal to resentment is for now the best way to motivate and unite an often-fractious party." (This was in a news story!) "It sounds like you're still fighting the election," growled NBC's Tim Russert on "Meet the Press." "So much for bipartisanship!" huffed ABC's Sam Donaldson on "This Week."
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You kids are adorable.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Go back twenty years and you have Democrats claiming Reagan cheated in the election because of the Iran Hostages and because the Carter campaign left their debate strategy behind and Reagan's team picked it up.
 
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