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[ivysaur12]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/02/walker-breaks-out-in-national-gop-race.html

PPP's newest national Republican poll finds a clear leader in the race for the first time: Scott Walker is at 25% to 18% for Ben Carson, 17% for Jeb Bush, and 10% for Mike Huckabee. Rounding out the field of contenders are Chris Christie and Ted Cruz at 5%, Rand Paul at 4%, and Rick Perry and Marco Rubio at 3%.

Walker has more than doubled his support since his 11% standing on our January national poll, and Carson has moved up 3 points. Bush, Huckabee, Paul, and Perry have largely stayed in place while Cruz has dropped 4 points and Christie has dropped 2 points.

Walker is climbing fast in the polling because of his appeal to the most conservative elements of the Republican electorate. Among 'very conservative' voters he leads with 37% to 19% for Carson, 12% for Bush, and 11% for Huckabee. Bush has a similarly large lead over Walker with moderates at 34/12...the problem for Bush though is that there are two times more GOP primary voters who identify as 'very conservative' than there are ones who identify as moderates.

Republican voters nationally actually have one elected official they like better than any of their potential choices for President- Benjamin Netanyahu has a 57% favorability rating. Huckabee at 56%, Carson at 54%, and Walker at 51% come closest but none of them are liked by as many voters in their party base as the Israeli Prime Minister.

 

[Metaphoreus]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/02/walker-breaks-out-in-national-gop-race.html

You're late:

Scott Walker got the Rudy Bump.

http://politicalwire.com/2015/02/24/walker-leads-the-gop-pack/

And speaking of SCOTUS cases we may have discussed already, the Supreme Court issued its opinion in Kansas v. Nebraska today, concerning--some river or something, I guess? Curiously, it generated three part-concurrences/part-dissents by Roberts, Scalia, and Thomas.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Yay. Given Walker's hard right tack in the presidential race I think he's going to flop in the general election. Which is interesting because his whole mojo in Wisconsin is supposedly focusing on fiscal issues (like skipping debt payments and exploding the deficit)

Marco Rubio is apparently telling donors that he's focusing on a presidential run over a Senate run which would be good news for Democrats. An open seat is almost always more favorable. Assuming a good Hillary performance I feel good about IL, PA, WI, NH and an open seat FL, which would be enough to win the majority even without a tiebreaker.

 

[Coriolanus]

Republican voters nationally actually have one elected official they like better than any of their potential choices for President- Benjamin Netanyahu has a 57% favorability rating

25% of the US is certifiably batshit insane.

 

[ivysaur12]

You're late:



And speaking of SCOTUS cases we may have discussed already, the Supreme Court issued its opinion in Kansas v. Nebraska today, concerning--some river or something, I guess? Curiously, it generated three part-concurrences/part-dissents by Roberts, Scalia, and Thomas.

Oh and thank god Kansas v. Nebraska I've been waiting for it.

Yay. Given Walker's hard right tack in the presidential race I think he's going to flop in the general election. Which is interesting because his whole mojo in Wisconsin is supposedly focusing on fiscal issues (like skipping debt payments and exploding the deficit)

Marco Rubio is apparently telling donors that he's focusing on a presidential run over a Senate run which would be good news for Democrats. An open seat is almost always more favorable. Assuming a good Hillary performance I feel good about IL, PA, WI, NH and an open seat FL, which would be enough to win the majority even without a tiebreaker.

Twist, though: Walker could always pick Rubio as his VP.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Oh and thank god Kansas v. Nebraska I've been waiting for it.



Twist, though: Walker could always pick Rubio as his VP.

A cynical ploy to try and win Hispanic voters which will be neutralized when Clinton picks Castro, as if it would have worked anyway.

 

[ivysaur12]

A cynical ploy to try and win Hispanic voters which will be neutralized when Clinton picks Castro, as if it would have worked anyway.

That's sort of how I saw that going anyway.

Also:

@sahilkapur 2m2 minutes ago
McCaskill tells me she’ll vote for cloture on McConnell’s immig bill (undecided on merits, has ‘concerns’) if Congress funds DHS cleanly.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I just don't see how Bush can effectively attack Walker. His record is the product of conservative principles, and all Walker has to do is point out Bush raised taxes/won't sign Grover's no tax pledge. This isn't like 2012 where Romney could bullshit against candidates with no executive records.

 

[Poodlestrike]

I just don't see how Bush can effectively attack Walker. His record is the product of conservative principles, and all Walker has to do is point out Bush raised taxes/won't sign Grover's no tax pledge. This isn't like 2012 where Romney could bullshit against candidates with no executive records.

He could start bringing up our points about why Walker isn't viable, though I'm unsure about how well an "elect me, I'm the only practical option" argument would play with the Republican base.

 

[ivysaur12]

He could start bringing up our points about why Walker isn't viable, though I'm unsure about how well an "elect me, I'm the only practical option" argument would play with the Republican base.

Yeah, I don't think "he has less charisma than the podium and Wisconsin will go Blue anyway" will play very well.

 

[Coriolanus]

Who comes ou on top when you compare Walker's economic performance as guvnah to Jeb's?

I mean, pretty sure that this'll be the major point of contention between them, especially if one is clearly above the other.

 

[Aaron Strife]

That's sort of how I saw that going anyway.

Also:

At first I was confused because I thought McCaskill lost.

PD's win in 2014 retroactively made me think his 2012 predictions were right too.

Romney's reelection is in the bag

 

[HylianTom]

If Walker gets it, it will be after enduring a shit-ton of money thrown at him on TV. His main route to the nomination is to the right of Jeb (who is not as moderate as he is portrayed), which means we'll have months of Jeb and the media depicting him as someone who is outside of the moderate/middle mold.

At least Romney had less-monied opponents and ostensibly moderate Massachusetts credentials, allowing him to attempt a pivot back to center for the general.. Walker's going to be pigeonholed.

 

[Incognito]

 

[NeoXChaos]

If Walker gets it, it will be after enduring a shit-ton of money thrown at him on TV. His main route to the nomination is to the right of Jeb (who is not as moderate as he is portrayed), which means we'll have months of Jeb and the media depicting him as someone who is outside of the moderate/middle mold.

At least Romney had less-monied opponents and ostensibly moderate Massachusetts credentials, allowing him to attempt a pivot back to center for the general.. Walker's going to be pigeonholed.

Jeb and his allies are going to throw everything and the kitchen sink at Walker if it is seen he has real shot of beating Jeb for the nomination. Bush wants to run a happy campaign but if the scenario above plays out where walker is in the delegate lead and Bush is faltering, all bombs and bets are off. Bush would have no choice but to go negative. He will be heavily pressured to do so. If not, his SuperPAC definitely will.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Walker and Bush? Please tell me the Republicans have a Herbert lying around somewhere, too.

I do wonder if Walker running would help Bush or not. It could end up like Romney, where Bush is getting attacked from the right by other Republicans, making him turn too extreme for the general. But, there's a chance that having a big competitor on the right in Walker, and on the left in the Dem nominee, makes Bush look like some middle of the road, moderate, compromise type candidate. And we know how much Americans love the "both sides suck, the truth is in the middle" bit.

 

[ivysaur12]

It'll definitely be a short primary though.

EDIT: I have no idea what to make of it but I found it sort of intriguing.

@ppppolls: 56% of Republicans say Fox News is the TV news outlet they trust the most, but only 6% of Democrats say it's MSNBC for them

 

[HylianTom]

Hmm..

Why CPAC desperately needs a Sister Souljah moment

My favorite line:

Being backward on gay rights, denying climate science and calling for mass deportations make Republicans unappealing to the very same groups that they must court. Young people and minorities are especially likely to support climate action and gay rights. Collectively, the GOP’s retrograde positions and asinine rhetoric sends a message to cosmopolitan people that Republicans are at war with modernity.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/poste...ac-desperately-needs-a-sistah-souljah-moment/

It's as though he reads our thread here. Ha.

 

[PhoenixDark]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/russ-feingold-chief-of-staff-senate

@aaronstrife

 

[ivysaur12]

Honestly, there aren't a whole lot of Democratic districts left that the NRCC could sensibly try to get. The GOP already has most of the swing/marginal seats in the House.

Right, exactly -- it's all lip service, since there are so few candidates they can target. Ashford and Graham and…

…

…

????

(I'd much rather have a majority and playing defense, for what it's worth :-\ )

 

[ivysaur12]

how have i never seen this before

 

[HylianTom]

Is it wrong that I fight the urge to reflexively yell-out a RuPaulesque, "haaaaay!" every time I see him? It's wrong.. right?

And it looks like The Daily Show's cratering will continue with Sam Bee and Jason Jones' departures. Ouch.

 

[BertramCooper]

I'm really struggling to figure out what Mother Jones is hoping to accomplish with this Bill O’Reilly stuff.

O'Reilly is a liar and always has been a liar, but his audience doesn't care and never will care. The fact that an unabashedly liberal outlet like MJ is pushing this story just feeds into the right's persecution complex.

 

[Coriolanus]

I'm really struggling to figure out what Mother Jones is hoping to accomplish with this Bill O’Reilly stuff.

O'Reilly is a liar and always has been a liar, but his audience doesn't care and never will care. The fact that an unabashedly liberal outlet like MJ is pushing this story just feeds into the right's persecution complex.

Telling your audience repeatedly what they wanna hear sounds odd to you? Really?

 

[BertramCooper]

Telling your audience repeatedly what they wanna hear sounds odd to you? Really?

MJ doesn't seem to be simply pandering to their audience; they want blood.

But they're not going to get it, and they're probably just going to end up emboldening O'Reilly.

 

[Ecotic]

And it looks like The Daily Show's cratering will continue with Sam Bee and Jason Jones' departures. Ouch.

I worry the Daily Show/Colbert Report combo played a not insignificant role in pulling America leftward this past decade and that liberalism is about to lose a major voice unless Comedy Central can land someone talented.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I worry the Daily Show/Colbert Report combo played a not insignificant role in pulling America leftward this past decade and that liberalism is about to lose a major voice unless Comedy Central can land someone talented.

lol no. and the internet and twitter have filled that void.

 

[Fenderputty]

lol no. and the internet and twitter have filled that void.

With all the stats about Daily show viewers being more informed than say Cable News Network viewers, I think it's a legitimate concern.

I'm hoping "lol no", but who knows.

 

[HylianTom]

I worry the Daily Show/Colbert Report combo played a not insignificant role in pulling America leftward this past decade and that liberalism is about to lose a major voice unless Comedy Central can land someone talented.

Agree.

It usually went like this:
* event happens
* TDS or Colbert does something to make it ridiculously funny
* clip gets re-aired on various TV shows & online ad infinitum (hourly repeats on CNN, retweeted & facebooked, etc)
* public is nudged just a tiiiiny bit on the topic at-hand
* repeat until the needle is moved

TDS losing efficacy removes a bit of headwind for the GOP. Sarcasm, mockery, wit.. comedy has become a HUGE weapon of the left over the past few decades, and very few did it as well as these guys & gals. I just hope that there's something that'll come along and fill the void.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

With all the stats about Daily show viewers being more informed than say Cable News Network viewers, I think it's a legitimate concern.

I'm hoping "lol no", but who knows.

Its more about informed people being attracted to the daily show. Stewart does a horrible job at informing. You have to bring a lot of background knowledge to his show.

And white middle class people (those that mostly watch the daily show) aren't what drive democratic votes.

Look who attended his rally

these people aren't going to the GOP camp.


also,

Agree.

It usually went like this:
* event happens
* TDS or Colbert does something to make it ridiculously funny
* clip gets re-aired on various TV shows & online ad infinitum (hourly repeats on CNN, retweeted & facebooked, etc)
* public is nudged just a tiiiiny bit on the topic at-hand
* repeat until the needle is moved

TDS losing efficacy removes a bit of headwind for the GOP. Sarcasm, mockery, wit.. comedy has become a HUGE weapon of the left over the past few decades, and very few did it as well as these guys & gals. I just hope that there's something that'll come along and fill the void.

Letterman and SNL in 08 did way more for the left than stewart did.

I think you guys are really missing how few people watch these shows or even see the clips on CNN/MSNBC.

 

[Aaron Strife]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/russ-feingold-chief-of-staff-senate

@aaronstrife

A demographic report from Center for American Progress. It doesn't find good news for the Republicans. Essentially due to how the white population is changing, it would be difficult for the GOP to win more than 60% of whites, and they'd have to win about 30% of nonwhites to counteract that.

 

[Fenderputty]

I think you guys are really missing how view people watch these shows or even see the clips on CNN/MSNBC.

Maybe.

John Oliver's net neutrality skit is an example of what I mean. Lots of hard work went into the moment and his one skit tipped the hat so to speak.

 

[BertramCooper]

Good.

I look forward to many uncomfortable discussions with my sister over the Strickland/Portman race.

 

[NeoXChaos]

What a terrible decision. PG Sittenfield needs to stay in till the end. Portman is going to be hard to beat regardless so I guess it wont matter.

 

[Oblivion]

https://twitter.com/RepJeffDuncan/status/570228052694831106

Of course, the BLS releases that info every month, but whatever.

Obama once again proves his the most incompetent authoritarian ever.

 

[speculawyer]

Yay. Given Walker's hard right tack in the presidential race I think he's going to flop in the general election. Which is interesting because his whole mojo in Wisconsin is supposedly focusing on fiscal issues (like skipping debt payments and exploding the deficit)

One article I read about Walker said that he got the nickname "Niedermeyer" in college . . . how perfect.

And although he's been through runs as Wisconsin governor, I wouldn't be surprised if some weird stuff about his past floats up during a presidential run.

 

[Black Mamba]

Former Republican Rep. Ron Paul, the father of potential presidential candidate Rand Paul and a former presidential candidate himself, said the Congressional Black Caucus does not support war because they want that money for food stamps.
“I was always annoyed with it in Congress because we had an anti-war unofficial group, a few libertarian Republicans and generally the Black Caucus and others did not—they are really against war because they want all of that money to go to food stamps for people here,” Ron Paul told Lew Rockwell in early February during a discussion on sanctions.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczy...t-war-because?utm_term=.kwZAaOZgZ2#.oveVEa0dE

But he didn't write those newsletters!

Also, I like the Bill O thing. I like that it's in the news and he's on the defensive. He's always being a bully, let him be with his heels back a bit. Don't give a shit if Fox won't do anything and he won't concede. Make him feel persecuted. He feigns it, anyway.

 

[Poodlestrike]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczy...t-war-because?utm_term=.kwZAaOZgZ2#.oveVEa0dE

But he didn't write those newsletters!

Also, I like the Bill O thing. I like that it's in the news and he's on the defensive. He's always being a bully, let him be with his heels back a bit. Don't give a shit if Fox won't do anything and he won't concede. Make him feel persecuted. He feigns it, anyway.

But if he gets off on the sense of persecution, is that really a win?

 

[Black Mamba]

But if he gets off on the sense of persecution, is that really a win?

Having his credibility up for question is a win. those that defend him would defend him in any circumstance. But there are those on the line that can be convinced otherwise.

O'Reilly can only win in this case if he's correct. And even then it's dicey. His reputation is hurt among someone here.

 

[PhoenixDark]

someone needs to make a thread about Ron Paul's comments so folks can defend him.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Having his credibility up for question is a win. those that defend him would defend him in any circumstance. But there are those on the line that can be convinced otherwise.

O'Reilly can only win in this case if he's correct. And even then it's dicey. His reputation is hurt among someone here.

His reputation is only being hurt amongst people who give a damn, which, unlike the Brian Williams case, excludes his audience and his network.

 

[ivysaur12]

someone needs to make a thread about Ron Paul's comments so folks can defend him.

Fine.

 

[Black Mamba]

someone needs to make a thread about Ron Paul's comments so folks can defend him.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=998744

Done.

His reputation is only being hurt amongst people who give a damn, which, unlike the Brian Williams case, excludes his audience and his network.

If it even affects the beliefs of a single person in the US, it's a win. And I am sure it does.

 

[Poodlestrike]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=998744

Done.




If it even affects the beliefs of a single person in the US, it's a win. And I am sure it does.

I'm sure it does affect the beliefs of at least a single person.

But not in the way you want. It feeds into the preexisting Republican persecution complex, and drives people further into that echo chamber they're all so fond of. It's almost certainly a net negative.

 

[Aaron Strife]

His reputation is only being hurt amongst people who give a damn, which, unlike the Brian Williams case, excludes his audience and his network.

I feel like Bill O'Reilly has a reputation with some people as the "king of shit mountain." He's bad, but he's not as bad as Hannity or Beck (hey what's old Glenn Coco up to nowadays. I don't really want to know). This might hurt him until everyone forgets about it when he says something about supporting gay marriage.

It's the O'Reilly cycle, says 5 dumbass things in a row, says 1 thing that might not be so bad and wins over moderates/liberals then screws it up 5 more times.

 

[Black Mamba]

I'm sure it does affect the beliefs of at least a single person.

But not in the way you want. It feeds into the preexisting Republican persecution complex, and drives people further into that echo chamber they're all so fond of. It's almost certainly a net negative.

It drives no one into the echo chamber. They're already there. Nobody cares about them.

However, there are people out there who are a bit ambivalent towards him who could be swayed.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Net Neutrality is locked in ya'll!

Nigga we made it!!

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Its hilarious how Obama is advancing so much progress when he doesn't have Congress.

He tried to advance things legislatively, he couldn't so he does what he can administratively which actually has much more force, it's hilarious

 

[HylianTom]

Its hilarious how Obama is advancing so much progress when he doesn't have Congress.

He tried to advance things legislatively, he couldn't so he does what he can administratively which actually has much more force, it's hilarious

Just as good: many within the GOP are taking the bait and reacting in truly entertaining, politically untenable ways.

Almost seems like Obama is in campaign mode already, thinking about his legacy, choosing which actions to take, calculating..

 

[TacticalFox88]

Just as good: many within the GOP are taking the bait and reacting in truly entertaining, politically untenable ways.

Almost seems like Obama is in campaign mode already, thinking about his legacy, choosing which actions to take, calculating..

I just want to see Obama go IN at the Democratic Convention in 2016.

Him and Bill taking turns roasting the GOP