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SE Texas: Hurricane/TS Harvey is here. And still here. Check local alerts & stay safe

cr0w

Old Member
GFS and Euro seem to be in agreement that it'll make first landfall in South Texas, hang around for a bit then go back out to the Gulf, strengthen, and then...

ecmwf_uv850_vort_us_8.png


Bad, bad news for LA. Considering the state they're already in with flooding, this is worst-case scenario.
 
Latest Euro model is still rolling out but so far it starts off quite similar to the most recent GFS model posted earlier. Makes landfall in South Texas, moves inland slowly, doesn't really weaken at all, then turns back towards the coast where it first made landfall.

By Tuesday it's back over open waters in the Gulf and strengthening...

Similar rainfall totals?
 
GFS is 40+ inches.

Euro is 30+ inches.

Euro has it making multiple landfalls and intensifying. Euro also has it moving faster at hour 168 out of Texas than GFS, which is why it is 10 inches lower in rainfall. It moves quickly into LA and up into TN over next 48 hours post second landfall.

Either way, both models point to a major event, with arguably the Euro causing more coastal damage while GFS shows more inland flooding.
 

Zeke

Member
we roll with Pace usually.

though my mom did show me mix HEBs pico with julios salsa, that shit is fantastic.
Julios is the only good thing about having to go to Del Rio. My grandparents used to live close to the pace factory way back when.
 

captive

Joe Six-Pack: posting for the common man
Julios is the only good thing about having to go to Del Rio. My grandparents used to live close to the pace factory way back when.

ha my friend's parents own a ranch near del rio. The first time i ever went there they had a huge Tupperware tub labled "Julio's" and i was like who's julio? And they laughed. I had never heard of the chips before then.
 
hwrf_satIR_09L_10.png



This is the HWRF Hurricane modeler simulated IR near-landfall within 54 hours, and in the past 24 hours this model has increased in intensity. So take this guy and hang it over Texas for at least a full 72 hours if not more.

EDIT: The finishing EURO model has this being a strong storm / rain maker from TN to Maryland next week.
 

Mudcrab

Member
GFS and Euro seem to be in agreement that it'll make first landfall in South Texas, hang around for a bit then go back out to the Gulf, strengthen, and then...

ecmwf_uv850_vort_us_8.png


Bad, bad news for LA. Considering the state they're already in with flooding, this is worst-case scenario.

The pumps are fucked. So we are fucked.
 

jmdajr

Member
I'm in Houston and live and work in the medical center. The panic is real down here.

That shit always floods. I have no idea if they have improved drainage over the years knowing what they know now.

bccb5163_o.png


You gonna be swimming with the Herman Park ZOO animals!
 
I wonder if we'll see significant flooding in South Austin/Hays county area. Idk what our rivers look like now, but 2 or 3 weeks ago, the Blanco was bone dry.
 

captive

Joe Six-Pack: posting for the common man
That shit always floods. I have no idea if they have improved drainage over the years knowing what they know now.

bccb5163_o.png


You gonna be swimming with the Herman Park ZOO animals!

yea, they've added more under ground parking garages.
 

jmdajr

Member
Update from Eric

euroop.jpg


Therefore I would be personally skeptical of any rainfall total forecasts at this time for your location. If you live near the coast in Texas, simply know that it’s either going to bad, or really, really bad between Friday and Wednesday.
 

trembli0s

Member
Seeing some models forecasting 30" of rain, just nuts.

Off to go buy another battery power pack and some supplies tomorrow morning.
 

Kimaka

Member
This is looking worse than I thought it would. I'm going to fill up my car just in case. Ugh, Kroger is going to be packed.
 
Still just a tropical depression as of the 4pm update. Perhaps that dry air will play a factor in keeping this system from developing. It was supposed to be a TS by now already....
 

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
It's still a ways out, but the weather in Austin has rapidly changed today. Was clear and hot before noon and now it's 10 degrees cooler and scattered storms. Austin doesn't get scattered storms this time of year unless something significant in the gulf is pushing moisture up here.
 

Pizza

Member
It's still a ways out, but the weather in Austin has rapidly changed today. Was clear and hot before noon and now it's 10 degrees cooler and scattered storms. Austin doesn't get scattered storms this time of year unless something significant in the gulf is pushing moisture up here.

I'm digging it, we're already getting hit with scattered storms here at the arcade. One good lightning strike and our ac will be fried for another two months
 

Arcia

Banned
Some of these projections are showing crazy amounts of rainfall, should I be getting some sandbags or some kind of flood barriers?
 
Still just a tropical depression as of the 4pm update. Perhaps that dry air will play a factor in keeping this system from developing. It was supposed to be a TS by now already....

It wasn't forecast to be a TS until 0000Z. There is no recon out there at the moment so no way of knowing exactly what the pressure and strength is. Only very gradual strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours or so anyway. Rainfall will most likely be the main concern for Texas anyway.
 
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