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SE Texas: Hurricane/TS Harvey is here. And still here. Check local alerts & stay safe

R

raidenandsolid

Member
After the Tax Day floods last year in Houston including here on the west side I'm not really too worried much about rain. Got some extra supplies since power likes to randomly shutoff at times anyway so at the very least I expect that to happen for a little while.
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
It's blown up a lot in just the past 2 hours. The center jumped again and 2 aircraft at 2 different heights found 2 centers 20mi apart in less than 20 minutes. ((This is extremely weird))
riotous said:
Would Dallas see any of this next Tuesday?

My wife has a flight through there.
Click to expand...
Should be fine. It's likely to loop around after landfall and hang out near the coast. Maybe a bit humid, but no storm issues.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
There has been a big upgrade in intensity on the latest GFS model. It now shows Harvey as a 955mb hurricane just before landfall in south Texas. You'd typically associate that type of pressure with a Category 3 storm.

gfs_mslp_wind_09L_9.png
Click to expand...

Rainfall totals are up to almost 36 inches, around 28 inches in the Houston area.

DH9_WOAXcAAVKey.jpg
Click to expand...
 
P

perfectchaos007

Member
Okay the UKMet's model would be nightmare scenario for HOuston. It stalls for days literally right above Houston once it gets on shore.

UKMET
fetchmap.php


edit: nvm now the UK met has shifted its path towards Corpus. This system is going to make landfall between Brownsville and Corpus with 70% certainty
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
The UKMET is the most respected model the past few years, yes? It's going to be hard for models to get a handle on this until the 12Z runs because the center has moved so much overnight... Though that seems to already consider the northeast shift.

I don't envy emergency management who will today need to decide what to do for Corpus Christi which is still the most likely landfall target. The only thing even vaguely close to good news is that that part of the Texas coast north of CC has a very low population up to Galveston.
 
L

Line_HTX

Member
This thing looks like it's going for Corpus Christi but turning east??? If it's moving that slow, will all of Houston become Atlantis?
 
P

perfectchaos007

Member
aspiegamer said:
The UKMET is the most respected model the past few years, yes? It's going to be hard for models to get a handle on this until the 12Z runs because the center has moved so much overnight... Though that seems to already consider the northeast shift.

I don't envy emergency management who will today need to decide what to do for Corpus Christi which is still the most likely landfall target. The only thing even vaguely close to good news is that that part of the Texas coast north of CC has a very low population up to Galveston.
Click to expand...

The coastal county just west of galveston county ,Brazoria,(pop:346,312) has a greater population than Galveston county (pop:322,225) just fyi.
 
M

mo60

Member
maquiladora said:
There has been a big upgrade in intensity on the latest GFS model. It now shows Harvey as a 955mb hurricane just before landfall in south Texas. You'd typically associate that type of pressure with a Category 3 storm.



Rainfall totals are up to almost 36 inches, around 28 inches in the Houston area.
Click to expand...

Sometimes storms with that low of a pressure can be cat 1 or 2 hurricanes.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 92.8W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Texas coast from Port
Mansfield to San Luis Pass.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Port Mansfield south to
the Mouth of the Rio Grande.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Texas coast from Port
Mansfield to Matagorda.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Matagorda
to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch has been issued from
south of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.
Click to expand...

.

NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes have been sampling
Harvey during the past few hours. Both aircraft indicate that
Harvey is becoming better organized and the central pressure is
falling. An average of the flight-level winds and the SFMR yield an
initial intensity of 40 kt. There are some unconfirmed reports of
stronger winds at flight-level to the northeast of the center,
but I am waiting for the plane to go back to that area for
confirmation.

It appears that the environment has finally become favorable
and all of the guidance calls for intensification. In fact, the
Rapid Intensification Index is up to 45 percent. The current NHC
forecast is a little lower than the model consensus to maintain
continuity from the previous advisory. If the current intensity
trend continues, the winds will have to be adjusted upward
in the next advisory.

The initial motion is toward the north or 360 degrees at 9 kt.
However, this is a combination of motion and reformation under the
convection. Harvey is already on the western edge of the
subtropical ridge extending from the Atlantic westward across the
Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will steer the cyclone on a general
northwest to north-northwest track for the next 2 to 3 days. Once
Harvey makes landfall in Texas, most of the global models predict
that the steering currents will collapse and Harvey will begin to
meander over Texas and perhaps will move back into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico.
Click to expand...

Definitely not your typical forecast track. You have to look at it closely :

-Hurricane making landfall 1AM Saturday
-Tropical Storm inland 1AM Sunday
-Tropical Storm inland in the exact same position 1AM Monday
-Hurricane again on the coast at 1AM Tuesday overlapping the previous position from 1AM Saturday.

2jp66Fr.png
 
M

maabus1999

Member
Harvey is continuing to get stronger every run. Huge wind and rain field. Most of the coast over 2 feet of rain. People need to be prepared for a week long disaster starting tomorrow night.

Edit- latest Recon just found a 985 mb pressure level. Harvey is intensifying extremely rapidly.
 
G

Gusto

Member
F*uck it, I'm going to have the wife and kids drive to San Antonio. My phone keeps going off about warnings.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
Gusto said:
F*uck it, I'm going to have the wife and kids drive to San Antonio. My phone keeps going off about warnings.
Click to expand...
To be honest you may want to go more north than that as there will most likely be flooding all the way through Austin from the storm
 
T

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Nearly 10 inches of rain for downtown Austin projected now, so we may have some serious flooding. I live in the northern burbs but you southerners stay safe ya hear.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
Very dangerous situation developing. Not just from the risk of inland flooding but also because there is a very real possibility this is on the way to becoming a major hurricane now too.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
maquiladora said:
Very dangerous situation developing. Not just from the risk of inland flooding but also because there is a very real possibility this is on the way to becoming a major hurricane now too.
Click to expand...
There is nothing stopping this storm from getting stronger as there is no wind shear and a surface temperatures are near 90 degrees. This storm will have lethal qualities in storm surge, wind, and flooding potential
 
J

Jabronium

Member
Down in Houston for work currently. Bumped my flight home up to this morning after hearing about this yesterday. Nobody at the site seemed too concerned. Hopefully they make it through ok with minimal damage, if any.
 
P

pokeystaples

Banned
My wife took a vacation day. Going to spend it grabbing some powdered things jic and some canned veggies we were out of. "I wanted to bolster the hurricane kit anyway. This gives me good reason." God bless her.

MedCenterGAF: That Kroger on South Main and Kirby was out of water yesterday evening. Hopefully there is a restock, but maybe call before hitting that one for supplies.
 
C

CrAzYLeGzLU

Member
My dad is a fire chief for a department near San Antonio and he gets the tropical storm briefing from the Austin / San Antonio Weather Forecast Office he sent me the PDF for the one issued at 5am, but I'm not sure how to best share it on here with you guys since I'm on my phone at the moment. I'm open to emailing it to someone so they can share it on here.
 
P

Poindexter

Member
I'm out in Fresno (near Pearland) and we went and stocked up last night on food and water. The power goes out with light storms in our area so I'm expecting to lose power early in the storm and for it to likely stay off. We run natural gas though so unless circumstances are extreme we should still be able to cook at least!

The Kroger near me was out of water by 6pm. I grabbed some cases off the last pallet. Canned foods were getting raided pretty bad.
 
G

Glitchesarecool

Member
Hm, stuff around the border of LA was constantly restocking. How sure are those models that it decides to tear eastward?

LucidMomentum said:
I fly into Houston this Saturday and leave next Friday.

Am I already dead?
Click to expand...

Might be worth heading north. Actually I'll be sort of surprised if you made it to Houston, the airlines probably aren't too keen on flying around that time.
 
L

LucidMomentum

Member
Glitchesarecool said:
Might be worth heading north. Actually I'll be sort of surprised if you made it to Houston, the airlines probably aren't too keen on flying around that time.
Click to expand...

How long is the storm predicted to last? I'll be in Houston for the week for a work training class, I don't think I can reschedule my flight so we'll see if I get held over then...
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
I don't think you understand.

This storm is being modeled to stall out for days, possibly dumping over 20+ inches of rain.

You shouldn't be anywhere near Houston this weekend.
 
G

Glitchesarecool

Member
LucidMomentum said:
Fffffffuuuuuuuuuuu

I won't even have a rental car as I'm staying within walking distance of the office I'm training at.

Time to bring my boots and raincoat I guess.
Click to expand...

Again I doubt you're going to even be able to fly in. Contact your employer or whoever is running this thing and try to reschedule.
 
L

LucidMomentum

Member
TheLostBigBoss said:
I don't think you understand.

This storm is being modeled to stall out for days, possibly dumping over 20+ inches of rain.

You shouldn't be anywhere near Houston this weekend.
Click to expand...

Glitchesarecool said:
Again I doubt you're going to even be able to fly in. Contact your employer or whoever is running this thing and try to reschedule.
Click to expand...

Alrighty, fuck this then. They're gonna hate me for canceling a flight and dumping the training cost but yeah, fuck that noise.
 
C

CrAzYLeGzLU

Member
CrAzYLeGzLU said:
My dad is a fire chief for a department near San Antonio and he gets the tropical storm briefing from the Austin / San Antonio Weather Forecast Office he sent me the PDF for the one issued at 5am, but I'm not sure how to best share it on here with you guys since I'm on my phone at the moment. I'm open to emailing it to someone so they can share it on here.
Click to expand...

Sorry for quoting myself here but here's a link to an imgur album with screenshots from the PDF. https://imgur.com/a/8ocZT

Keep in mind this report really only focuses on the Austin / San Antonio area.
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
LucidMomentum said:
Alrighty, fuck this then. They're gonna hate me for canceling a flight and dumping the training cost but yeah, fuck that noise.
Click to expand...

When the entire city is flooding and a state emergency is happening due to a hurricane stalling out over the area for three days, as well as all flights canceling, I think they'll understand.
 
G

Glitchesarecool

Member
LucidMomentum said:
Alrighty, fuck this then. They're gonna hate me for canceling a flight and dumping the training cost but yeah, fuck that noise.
Click to expand...

Dont cancel or burn a bridge, try to work on rescheduling for a different date, but I think everyone's going to understand you're not going to be able to fly into this thing.
 
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