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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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Coalition wan't that bad in hindsight, although I did spend time complaining about it back then when I was a student. Those were the good old days when I was blissfully unaware of any real plans for an EU referendum and made future plans based on being an EU citizen for life. I miss those times. Also, it was the time when I actually liked being in this country. The referendum exposed the ugly side of many people.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
All charities are socialist.

EDIT: Except Eton.
 

HaloRose

Banned
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Oh, update on my LD prospects. Based on Betfair...

GAINS
Cambridge
Twickenham
East Dunbartonshire
Kingston + Surbiton
Edinburgh West
Bermondsey + Old Southwark
NE Fife

POSSIBLE GAINS
Richmond (the odds are shortening every time I look)
Eastbourne
Lewes
T+Y
Bath
Burnley
C+S+ER
R+S+L Vauxhall

POSSIBLE LOSSES
Southport (UKIP y u no stand down here)

LIKELY LOSSES (Depends on how much the Tory vote falls pre-election)
Carshalton
North Norfolk

My final range is thus 12 to 23. Most of the above is off of common sense and the Betfair vote.

This would be a serious victory if we hit 20.
they grain that much it will be a serious victory if they grain 2 or 4 seats.
 
Lol@UKIP, nobody gives a shit about you, bunch of losers. They shouldn't of even been invited to debates, they have as much relevance as the Communist party.

Hopefully I'm wrong and just kneejerk reacting but they'll have a small uptick of support due to this. I think there's going to be room for a front national style party here if we have any more attacks soon.
 

Pandy

Member
I hadn't actually thought of how many would be Tory voters are going to go back to UKIP after the tragic events. The amount of misdirected anger over what's happened could see a terrible UKIP policy turn into a huge voter getter.

UKIP are obviously gambling on exactly this, which is why they've decided resume campaigning before the other parties.

I'm not sure exactly how it will be in their manifesto, but I caught a bit of Nuttall on the Daily Politics a week or so ago talking about their zero net immigration policy, and something about restricting Muslim practises (I presume things like wearing veils, but I only saw a bit of the interview). They absolutely think that they will get a positive uplift on the back of the atrocity.

While in theory I should be happy for UKIP to split the Tory vote a bit, in reality I hope those hateful fuckers lose every deposit they've got.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Talking to people who protest at downing street on a wednesday afternoon is always a great way to find some choice vox pops.

Personally, I think Speaker's Corner does an absolutely outstanding number in complete nut jobs. Well worth your time.
 
LDs restarted at the advice of local campaign chairs today - just delivering leaflets which *need* to be delivered before polling day.

I expect we'll restart on Friday.

This presumably means the Corbyn vs Neil interview will happen. I seriously hope Nuttall/Farron/Sturgeon get theirs rescheduled for next week.
 
We're probably 5 years behind france with front national party style here

UKIP is our FN. They'll be back. There is a space in British politics for something that lives where the right of the Tories stretch their legs out into, but to the left of the actually fascist parties, much like there is a space between the left of the Tories and the right of Labour, and a small space to the left of Labour where TUSC live.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Tourist season has started here, so I am kind of busy with coachloads of old Welsh ladies, so I've missed about a week of everything.

Can't get my head around this "dementia tax" thing at all - would anyone care to explain exactly what there is a row about?
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
Tourist season has started here, so I am kind of busy with coachloads of old Welsh ladies, so I've missed about a week of everything.

Can't get my head around this "dementia tax" thing at all - would anyone care to explain exactly what there is a row about?

"dementia tax" because people who need care will end up pay for it using the value of their home.

So people are faced with the situation of hoping they never need care or hoping they die quickly so they can pass their assets on.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I actually don't see a problem with the 'dementia tax'. Seems fair?

Why is it fair to subject people to a lottery, where if they lose the lottery and then get dementia, their kids get punished as well?
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
I actually don't see a problem with the 'dementia tax'. Seems fair?

it's unfair because it's a lottery. If you get sick you could potential give away everything you've work your whole life for.

it also a direct attack on the middle and working class whose biggest asset is their home. if you're a millionaire you can probably afford care.

Its certainty more fair than the cap proposal, which seems highly regressive.

Not sure what the solution even is to this that would be fair to everyone

well in an ideal world people would've been paying a little more tax their working life that would cover social care needs.
 
Great election news if you are me, or, you share my sense of humour.

BBC Two are going to be doing a topical nightly election comedy show - starting next Tuesday. 10:30pm, five minutes long, every weekday up until Friday of the results. And the actual interesting thing, it's Andy Hamilton and Guy Jenkins! It's called Election Spy and will be a "comic look behind the scenes at the political parties reacting to the days themes, rows and catastrophes"
 
Great election news if you are me, or, you share my sense of humour.

BBC Two are going to be doing a topical nightly election comedy show - starting next Tuesday. 10:30pm, five minutes long, every weekday up until Friday of the results. And the actual interesting thing, it's Andy Hamilton and Guy Jenkins! It's called Election Spy and will be a "comic look behind the scenes at the political parties reacting to the days themes, rows and catastrophes"

Didn't they do something in the run up to the last election, set on the major party campaign buses?
 
Didn't they do something in the run up to the last election, set on the major party campaign buses?

Yeah for Channel 4, Ballot Monkeys for the election, Power Monkeys for the referendum (also included Trump/Putin). Those were 30min, once a week up until voting week when they went daily.

With the shorter timespan, it looks like they're ditching the 'prewritten plots around it' and just effectively 5 mins daily topical insert.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
"dementia tax" because people who need care will end up pay for it using the value of their home.

So people are faced with the situation of hoping they never need care or hoping they die quickly so they can pass their assets on.

The issue I see with this (and I mean here that I see it every week in real life, not just as a theoretical thing) is that broadly - very broadly - there are two sorts of families. There's the family that cares for their aged parents and the family that doesn't. I've met a lot of both. There's lots of people care (as in really care as in do all the physical stuff as well as the companionship and shopping and so forth) for aged parents, and there are a number of people who abandon their parents to the care of the state and then swoop in at the last minute to claim their inheritance - in one case in my own experience actually at the funeral with a fucking solicitor in tow without having lifted a finger in aid in the previous 15 years.

The first sort basically deserve their inheritance such as it is, and it often isn't much. The second sort deserve bugger all.

That's a bit broad brush and there are all sorts of edge cases and the policy doesn't seem to have been thought through a lot. But I can't see that it is fundamentally wrong.
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
The issue I see with this (and I mean here that I see it every week in real life, not just as a theoretical thing) is that broadly - very broadly - there are two sorts of families. There's the family that cares for their aged parents and the family that doesn't. I've met a lot of both. There's lots of people care (as in really care as in do all the physical stuff as well as the companionship and shopping and so forth) for aged parents, and there are a number of people who abandon their parents to the care of the state and then swoop in at the last minute to claim their inheritance - in one case in my own experience actually at the funeral with a fucking solicitor in tow without having lifted a finger in aid in the previous 15 years.

The first sort basically deserve their inheritance such as it is, and it often isn't much. The second sort deserve bugger all.

That's a bit broad brush and there are all sorts of edge cases and the policy doesn't seem to have been thought through a lot. But I can't see that it is fundamentally wrong.

I can certainly understand that. I can see an argument that people should be able to use the value of their home to pay for care if they want to (I'm not sure if that's an actual thing people can do now but it perhaps should be an option for people like you say who are on their own. Provide in home care and then recoup the cost after death).

I think the problem for them was the way it was announced and some of the issues mentioned above and that it targets the core Tory vote who have bought in to their low tax home buying world view all these years. Not the millionaires but the average person who has most of their inheritance in their home.
 

Moze

Banned
Why is it fair to subject people to a lottery, where if they lose the lottery and then get dementia, their kids get punished as well?

It's still a £100k threshold though. What exactly is the punishment here? The punishment is that their children only get £100k inheritance? I say that anybody with that sort of inheritance is extremely lucky.

Many of these people have benefited from the insane property market that has fucked over everybody else. Why should the taxpayer pay for people who have benefited from something that many have not?

it's unfair because it's a lottery. If you get sick you could potential give away everything you've work your whole life for.

it also a direct attack on the middle and working class whose biggest asset is their home. if you're a millionaire you can probably afford care.


Everything? There is a £100k threshold isn't there?
 

Par Score

Member
That's a bit broad brush and there are all sorts of edge cases and the policy doesn't seem to have been thought through a lot. But I can't see that it is fundamentally wrong.

It's fundamentally wrong that if you get Pancreatic Cancer your care is free and your house is safe, but if you get Alzheimer's you and your family are fucked.

We need an NHS style model for social care (paid for by punitive taxes on the wealthy), anything else is inevitably going to be unfair as it creates a total health lottery.
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
Everything? There is a £100k threshold isn't there?

yes sorry I should've been more clear I was talking figuratively. it's still potentially most of what people have. there's now talk of a cap but they never announced what it was or how they would pay for the gap. It was all a bit wishy washy.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
It's still a £100k threshold though. What exactly is the punishment here? The punishment is that their children only get £100k inheritance? I say that anybody with that sort of inheritance is extremely lucky.

Divide that by five children all with student debt and it doesn't seem that much. I'm greatly in favour of charging inheritance tax on the recipient rather than on the donor.

It's fundamentally wrong that if you get Pancreatic Cancer your care is free and your house is safe, but if you get Alzheimer's you and your family are fucked.

We need an NHS style model for social care (paid for by punitive taxes on the wealthy), anything else is inevitably going to be unfair as it creates a total health lottery.

Now that is an argument I will buy, particularly since my dad died of pancreatic cancer, so I might be a bit biased.

But, and there's an awfully big but, social care paid for our of taxes is going to be hugely expensive. And most social care that actually works and does any good is done in families and social circles and church communities and neighbourhoods; and the professional social care model we have running now is rubbish. Expensive, unresponsive, unimaginative and on the whole not as helpful as it might be. The best social care that I do is in putting people together who care in different ways for each other. It's about proximity, friendship, skills, personalities and so on and so forth - about people who feel they have been abandoned finding out that they may not have been. One-to-one non-community-based so-called "social care" doesn't do that. It is a huge failing.

But we shouldn't be leaping into, or arguing against, national provision of social care without knowing something about what costs, and what benefits, we are talking about.

(Sorry if this is a bit impassioned, it hits close to home.)
 
The issues surrounding the "dementia tax" are a bit complex, but let me summate.

BEFORE:
If you stay at home when you get a long term illness that requires care, such as dementia, the state will cover the cost of your carer.

If you go into a home, the state takes a look at all your assets except your home. You, the ill person, pay until your wealth is diminished to about 25k. Then the state takes over the cost of your care. However, you will probably have to flog your home off anyway, or get your kids to pay for you, because only your care is covered. Your room and board is not - and that can get very pricey, so most old people equate going into care as being forced to flog their home.

This situation sucks for those in care in homes.

AFTER:
The Tory social care policy is that everyone needing care will have an assessment done on the total value of all their wealth, including their property. You will then buy an insurance policy from a private insurer, which draws equity from your home to pay for your care. You pay until either you have paid an as-yet-to-be-determined cap, or your net wealth drops to 100k.

Good news:
1. If you're in a care home, you are probably going to have more of your wealth left over when you pass on, as the wealth floor is 100k now, not 23k. Except there are no changes to the non-care costs, so you are still going to have to flog your home to pay for them or rely on your kids if you run out of liquid wealth.

Bad news
1. For all non-care-home people receiving care, they are now forced to pay towards that...
2. ... by buying insurance policies from Axa or someone, which contract you to selling off the family home no-matter what as soon as you die...
3. ... without any details of how much the insurer themselves will charge you for this service, which is a non-care cost and therefore is not protected...
4. ... specifically punishing those who take a long time to die.

Basically, if you *need* to be in a care home, the old system was unfair. The new system is still just as unfair. If you don't need to be in a care home, the old system was somewhat generous. Now it's as unfair as going into a care home.

If you get an illness requiring care and you cannot pay for it, you are now forced to sign away your family's home, which is possibly where your children grew up, to private insurance firms. The longer you live once you do this, the less money your children will get, unless the Tories decide, after an election where they are about to get a landslide, to make sure that their cap they were u-turned into AND the floor are rigid and cast-iron guaranteed for all your care and external costs. And the Tories won't do that, because they know full well that the private insurers could then charge whatever they like to the government for the care insurance.

This is, in short:

1. A policy designed to punish those who live for a long time in care...
2. A policy designed to punish the loved ones of those punished by (1)...
3. That does not solve the fundamental problems with the rickety and failing care system in this country, especially as there is no costings for anything the Tories want to do - they are making it up as they go along...
4. ... that enriches insurance companies...
5. ... that grabs at one block of money the government has largely left alone for the boomer generation to enjoy, their homes, that they bought in a generation where home ownership was HEAVILY encouraged...
6. ... which represents an attack on one of the last large large blocks of cash held by the people of this country, not by companies and billionaires...
7. ... because the Tories want to cut lots of taxes for the same companies that benefit from this policy.

At the SAME TIME AS THIS, we are leaving the EU, which is going to drive costs up across the board and endanger many of the people working in the care services, and hit those care service employees who are HORRIBLY paid with inflation.

To describe this policy as a calamity is an understatement.

It is one of the worst ideas I've ever seen in a manifesto.

And that's the REVISED version.

If you want a good example of what the Tories actually look like, unfettered from the need to convince voters or coalition partners, this is it. This turns my stomach each time I read it. It is an evil, evil policy.

And you'd better believe that this is only the beginning. If this is allowed to go off, this exact policy can be copied and pasted across the health and care sectors. You can bet Jeremy Hunt is salivating at the idea of getting all those long-term patients in NHS care to sign up to these policies too.

And you get all of that by letting May win - by saying "oh well, she's going to win anyway and she's better than Corbyn. Someone has to negotiate Brexit and defeat IS!"
 

Faddy

Banned
The care policy doesn't say anything about interim care. Does anyone receiving in home care, like after an operation have their "account" charged to be recovered on death? Is there interest paid on this?

E.g. 65 year old needs a hip replacement and care in her home for 2 months. Is that cost taken from her estate? Does the amount accrue interest until she dies? If she has savings can she pay up front to not have to pay interest?

The policy only seems to take into account someone receiving care until they die.
 
E.g. 65 year old needs a hip replacement and care in her home for 2 months. Is that cost taken from her estate? Does the amount accrue interest until she dies? If she has savings can she pay up front to not have to pay interest?

Welcome to the world of needlessly non-joined-up health and social care!

If the *NHS* is paying for your care - for example, for a nurse to come over and make sure your hip replacement recovery is going well - then that's free at the point of use. The cost is covered by the public.

If it's not covered by the NHS, and instead is covered by your local council, for example, then this is when the policy hits.
 

Faddy

Banned
Welcome to the world of needlessly non-joined-up health and social care!

If the *NHS* is paying for your care - for example, for a nurse to come over and make sure your hip replacement recovery is going well - then that's free at the point of use. The cost is covered by the public.

If it's not covered by the NHS, and instead is covered by your local council, for example, then this is when the policy hits.

There is no problem with joined up NHS and social care if both things come from the same payment method, the exchequer. When they start handing out individual bills it becomes an issue.

Also when a social care tab is started does that put a freeze on your assets or could someone who has a large social care bill spend all their money until they have £100k left with no consequences.
 
Also when a social care tab is started does that put a freeze on your assets or could someone who has a large social care bill spend all their money until they have £100k left with no consequences.

Sod if I know - all the detail of this policy is reserved for AFTER May wins a landslide.

If it works like inheritance, there will probably be protections to make sure you can't just chuck all your money to your kids as soon as you need care, for example. But hey, we don't know.
 
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