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March 2010 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Gamasutra posted my comments on the NPD Group data released last week. The article is here:
Direct link to Gamasutra story about March 2010 NPD data.
Things of interest:
  • PS3/Xbox 360/Wii software dollar share for March 2009 and 2010.
  • Some rough figures for LTD sales of PS3 software (some already known)
  • Software share for PSP and NDS in March 2010.
  • Some comments on hardware sales and pricing

An image from the article:
current-gen-sw-sales-mar-2009.png

Check the full article to see how this changed in March 2010. ;)

I'm super-busy today. Have no idea when I'll be back to fix things. Sorry.

As always, I'm up for corrections, comments, etc. Please don't take a lack of immediate response personally -- I may simply not be here. My overlordseditors will probably be watching the thread, so changes may happen without a direct response from me.

There is another piece coming in the near future on 1Q10. I've kept some stuff back for that, since this was more about March 2010.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
2007: Oct Nov Dec
2008: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010: Jan Feb
 
Why for the March 2010 Handheld Software graph did you just draw a picture of pac-man.... OHHHH

poor psp :(


Also, the DS's age and gender graph is pretty amazing
 
Wow. When Sony said PS3 was the #1 home platform for revenue in March I figured that was just because of the higher avg console price.
 
handheld-sw-sales-mar-2010.png


Damn.... Sony better has a PSP 2 ready at this e3.
 
cw_sasuke said:
Damn.... Sony better has a PSP 2 ready at this e3.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure, I don't think there's anything they can do to take on Nintendo's handheld stronghold. Maybe they could add PSP like features to their phones and other handheld devices. The Go was supposed to revive the PSP. It even convinced some developers to jump back on board the sinking ship.

A PSP2 would have to go up against both Apple and Nintendo. I think that Sony should wait for Apple and Nintendo to make their move and watch how the market responds before launching the PSP2. This year they'd have to go up against the DSi, 3DS, iPad(depending on size and price of the new PSP), iPhone and Pokemon. If Sony launched a PSP2 it would be like bringing a knife to a gun fight prevent a nuclear holocaust.
 
I would've thought that Uncharted 2 broke a million by now, so GOW3 outsold it in a matter of 3 weeks !!

Would love to see how both games sales worldwide 1 year from now.

Hopefully GOW collection would reach 1M so we could see more of those.
 
[Nintex] said:
A PSP2 would have to go up against both Apple and Nintendo. I think that Sony should wait for Apple and Nintendo to make their move and watch how the market responds before launching the PSP2. This year they'd have to go up against the DSi, 3DS, iPad(depending on size and price of the new PSP), iPhone and Pokemon. If Sony launched a PSP2 it would be like bringing a knife to a gun fight prevent a nuclear holocaust.
Click to expand...
If they wait to long there wont even be a fight - 3DS will probably be already at a +10 million userbase if they wait longer than 9-12 months....
 
Taurus said:
nintendo-ds-age-gender-distribution.jpg


I would pay big moneyz to see this stat for all current gen consoles.
Click to expand...

What does this chart show? Is the bottom axis 'Age'? That is the only thing that makes sense to me but I'm not positive.
 
[Nintex] said:
I'm not sure, I don't think there's anything they can do to take on Nintendo's handheld stronghold. Maybe they could add PSP like features to their phones and other handheld devices. The Go was supposed to revive the PSP. It even convinced some developers to jump back on board the sinking ship.

A PSP2 would have to go up against both Apple and Nintendo. I think that Sony should wait for Apple and Nintendo to make their move and watch how the market responds before launching the PSP2. This year they'd have to go up against the DSi, 3DS, iPad(depending on size and price of the new PSP), iPhone and Pokemon. If Sony launched a PSP2 it would be like bringing a knife to a gun fight prevent a nuclear holocaust.
Click to expand...

Huh? You're acting like PSP is some huge failure of a product. They sold over 60 million units. The brand is there, the market is there and the successor will do fine.
 
TheThunder said:
I would've thought that Uncharted 2 broke a million by now, so GOW3 outsold it in a matter of 3 weeks !!

Would love to see how both games sales worldwide 1 year from now.

Hopefully GOW collection would reach 1M so we could see more of those.
Click to expand...

Uncharted 2 broke a million in Jan. It was at 950K in Dec. 09.
 
Lagspike_exe said:
Huh? You're acting like PSP is some huge failure of a product. They sold over 60 million units. The brand is there, the market is there and the successor will do fine.
Click to expand...

Accept that we are on 2010 now and the plattform has been seeling less and less for the last 3 years in addition to non-existent software sales. With Apple market share rising in the mobile area Sony should be better prepared for the next round - starting this e3.
 
jjgames said:
Thanks. That makes sense now. I guess old men don't want to play DS.
Click to expand...
There are some random jumps which must be attributed to the small sample size.
 
Taurus said:
nintendo-ds-age-gender-distribution.jpg


I would pay big moneyz to see this stat for all current gen consoles.
Click to expand...

I wonder how this survey was conducted. A sample size of ~ 4800 seems small for such a complex statistic. The loss in ownership from females aged 45 to 46 is odd as well.
 
I thought it was amusing to make it look like a Pac-man, but you guys have taken it to a whole new level. :lol
 
Endgegner said:
I wonder how this survey was conducted. A sample size of ~ 4800 seems small for such a complex statistic. The loss in ownership from females aged 45 to 46 is odd as well.
Click to expand...

As others will be happy to tell you, the size of your sample is much less significant compared to how representative your sample is. A poll of 150 men and 150 women aged evenly between five and 80 is much more useful than a poll of 3000 men all aged between 20 and 25.
 
Baki said:
Yup, just in the US. It broke a million in NA by Dec. 09.

As of Feb/March 2010 Uncharted 2 is at 3.5M worldwide.
Click to expand...
The article says: "Were we to rank sales of more recent games, we'd list Uncharted 2: Among Thieves with sales in excess of 850,000"

Edit: keep forgetting to refresh before posting
 
TheThunder said:
The article says 850k where are you getting your numbers from ?
Click to expand...

SCEA Statement: December 2009 NPD

“It’s no surprise we’ve seen PS3 units sold every month nearly double since October. We knew 2009 would be a turning point for the platform due to the new price and a content line up that is fueling unprecedented consumer and industry interest with games like UNCHARTED 2: Among Thieves. The consumer response has simply been overwhelming and we anticipate the high demand for PS3 to continue into the coming months as we work closely with retail to meet the demand. The best part of PS3’s story today is that 2010 will offer entirely new gaming experiences to consumers as we launch MAG, God of War III, 3D gaming, and the new motion controller this year. It’s never been a better time to be a PS3 owner.”

– Patrick Seybold, Sr. Director of Corporate Communications at SCEA
PlayStation Brand Revenue

* The PlayStation brand generated more than $5.1 billion in revenue in the US for 2009, a 26% share of the total video game industry revenue for 2009

Hardware

* PS3 sold 1.35 million hardware units in December 2009 in the US, which represents an 87% increase when compared to December 2008
* PS3 hardware was the only home console to see double digit growth of 22% for the calendar year of 2009 (4.3 million total) when compared to the calendar year of 2008 (3.5 million total)
* December 2009 marks the single highest selling month for PS3 hardware and software in the US.
* PSP hardware also saw an increase of more than 122% from November to December 2009, making it a popular holiday gift item

Software

* Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 for PS3 was ranked in the top five software skus for December 2009
* Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 topped PS3 software for the calendar year of 2009 with a total of 2.8 million units sold to date, followed by Madden NFL 10 and AssassinÂ’s Creed II for PS3
* UNCHARTED 2: Among Thieves has surpassed 1 million units in North America* with more than 950k units reported by NPD in the U.S. since launch

PlayStation Network

* December 2009 also marked PlayStation NetworkÂ’s single highest revenue month, jumping 155% from December 2008 in North America *
* The highest activity for the month of December on PlayStation Network was Christmas Day
* PS one classic game FINAL FANTASY VIII took top honors as the most downloaded “game” of December, followed by the PlayStation Network exclusive PixelJunk Shooter *
* We also saw incremental sales driven by great add-on content such as the Call of Duty: World at War Map Packs, which took the top 3 paid downloads for the calendar year of 2009 *

The real question is who you going to believe?
 
The PS3 weekly numbers are following the normal seasonal trend, just like the 360. Looks like the shortages excuses are lame.
 
JudgeN said:
The real question is who you going to believe?
Click to expand...
I believe the real question is what "North America" means. NPD covers Canada, Mexico, and the U.S., as I recall, and this region is generally referred to as "North America". The general rule of thumb is that NA = US + 10%.

Here's what I used. The actual figure through November was 650K, according to an interview with Michael I found. The total so far in 2010 is over 100K. (I'm not going to say precisely, in deference to NPD's ground rules.) I felt it best to be conservative.

As I've made clear before (and I hope folks here know, based on previous posts), I'm happy to make corrections -- having correct statements is worth more than my ego.
 
Taurus said:
nintendo-ds-age-gender-distribution.jpg


I would pay big moneyz to see this stat for all current gen consoles.
Click to expand...
I'm really surprised the drop in males 18 and onwards. Seeing as that is one of the strongest markets.
 
jvm said:
I believe the real question is what "North America" means. NPD covers Canada, Mexico, and the U.S., as I recall, and this region is generally referred to as "North America". The general rule of thumb is that NA = US + 10%.

Here's what I used. The actual figure through November was 650K, according to an interview with Michael I found. The total so far in 2010 is over 100K. (I'm not going to say precisely, in deference to NPD's ground rules.) I felt it best to be conservative.

As I've made clear before (and I hope folks here know, based on previous posts), I'm happy to make corrections -- having correct statements is worth more than my ego.
Click to expand...
That would mean Uncharted 2 is over 1 million by now in the US only. The 950k was a US figure as of end of 2009.
 
cw_sasuke said:
handheld-sw-sales-mar-2010.png


Damn.... Sony better has a PSP 2 ready at this e3.
Click to expand...
TBH that's a rosier share for Sony than I'd expect, given that like 40 games a month are released for DS, while the PSP gets like 1 or 2.
 
Shig said:
TBH that's a rosier share for Sony than I'd expect, given that like 40 games a month are released for DS, while the PSP gets like 1 or 2.
Click to expand...

Also the 4 ds games in the top 20 (all from Nintendo) sold > 2 million.

Ds always destroys psp in software and hardware sales but this month was also much worse for psp because of the Pokemon remakes.
 
1. A price cut in October/November or August/September will make little difference for a Sony trying to gain profitability on the PS3. It's not like having "only" two months at a lower price will help that much when those two months could be as large as the 6-8 before it combined. If Sony is concerned about profitability in the coming FY, they likely can't cut the PS3 price at all within that FY. Microsoft (and, as always, Nintendo) are the only ones in a position to cut hardware prices and still be profitable.

2. DSiXL doesn't play anything different than DSi does. There would not be four DSs on the market all capable of playing "their own specialized software" with the release of the 3DS. It's also not as "disconcerting" considering that each level is cumulative (ignoring the GBA slot on DSLite).

3.
especially from a company which has generally maintained a simple line of hardware models.
Click to expand...

Which Nintendo have you been following all these years? They usually have multiple revisions of their handheld hardware. 3DS's launch will be like when the GBA launched, and there were three tiers of software available: GB, GBC, and GBA. Each successive level playing all the software of the lower. Now, it'll be DS, DSi, and 3DS. This is not as big a "shift" for Nintendo as you're trying to lay it out as. :P
 
donny2112 said:
1. A price cut in October/November or August/September will make little difference for a Sony trying to gain profitability on the PS3. It's not like having "only" two months at a lower price will help that much when those two months could be as large as the 6-8 before it combined. If Sony is concerned about profitability in the coming FY, they likely can't cut the PS3 price at all within that FY. Microsoft (and, as always, Nintendo) are the only ones in a position to cut hardware prices and still be profitable.
Click to expand...

I agree an extra month or two doesn't make much of a difference in the grand scheme of things (what's an extra $5M or so among friends), but you're assuming the hardware cost doesn't fall at all for Sony, and that any hardware loss necessarily means the gaming unit can't be profitable. I don't believe either one of those assumptions is correct. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that the hardware is effectively break even right now, and the growing install base should be paying software and accessory dividends as well.
 
donny2112 said:
Which Nintendo have you been following all these years? They usually have multiple revisions of their handheld hardware. 3DS's launch will be like when the GBA launched, and there were three tiers of software available: GB, GBC, and GBA. Each successive level playing all the software of the lower. Now, it'll be DS, DSi, and 3DS. This is not as big a "shift" for Nintendo as you're trying to lay it out as. :P
Click to expand...
My intention here was that there is generally only one type of each system at a given time.

There was generally only one model of the GBA, with the GBA being replaced almost wholesale with the GBA SP and then that being replaced wholesale with the GBA SP2 (or whatever people call it with the brighter screen). Yes, they all played the same software, but you could generally only get one hardware configuration except during the selling off of the previous revision. (Ok, ok, GB Micro. That turned out well.)

When the Nintendo DS was replaced with the Lite, the original basically disappeared.

Going back to the GB/GBC you can say there were different models, but we're 10 years removed from that now. With the exception of the GB Pocket, were there different versions of the same GB system out at any point in time. (Honest question there. My recollection is "no". Also, I know there were other models in Japan, at least.)

This extends to consoles. There weren't different Nintendo 64 models with different abilities (AFAIK), at least in the U.S. The GameCube started with some extra ports, but those disappeared completely once the ports were cut. Same for the Wii, which has been pretty much the same since the day it launched.
 
donny2112 said:
1. A price cut in October/November or August/September will make little difference for a Sony trying to gain profitability on the PS3. It's not like having "only" two months at a lower price will help that much when those two months could be as large as the 6-8 before it combined. If Sony is concerned about profitability in the coming FY, they likely can't cut the PS3 price at all within that FY. Microsoft (and, as always, Nintendo) are the only ones in a position to cut hardware prices and still be profitable.

2. DSiXL doesn't play anything different than DSi does. There would not be four DSs on the market all capable of playing "their own specialized software" with the release of the 3DS. It's also not as "disconcerting" considering that each level is cumulative (ignoring the GBA slot on DSLite).

3.

Which Nintendo have you been following all these years? They usually have multiple revisions of their handheld hardware. 3DS's launch will be like when the GBA launched, and there were three tiers of software available: GB, GBC, and GBA. Each successive level playing all the software of the lower. Now, it'll be DS, DSi, and 3DS. This is not as big a "shift" for Nintendo as you're trying to lay it out as. :P
Click to expand...

SCE just cut about 200g off the PS3 with the latest revision. I think they're breaking even now.

Although I agree, SCE is not cutting the PS3 price anytime soon (unless they come out with an ultra slim which has an external PSU).
 
jcm said:
.
Click to expand...

If Sony wants to be profitable on the PS3 this FY, they can't do a significant price drop on the PS3 before the biggest selling month of the year and get there. Even if they're break even now, it took 3.5 years to get there plus a model revision. They're not going to shave $50-$100 off the price by the Fall, so they're not going to be able to cut the price to consumers by that amount if they plan on making a profit this FY.
 
Shig said:
TBH that's a rosier share for Sony than I'd expect, given that like 40 games a month are released for DS, while the PSP gets like 1 or 2.
Click to expand...
DS sold 8.1 times the software on 2.3 times the installed base, so that's still pretty spectacular.
 
jvm said:
Going back to the GB/GBC you can say there were different models, but we're 10 years removed from that now. With the exception of the GB Pocket, were there different versions of the same GB system out at any point in time. (Honest question there. My recollection is "no". Also, I know there were other models in Japan, at least.)
Click to expand...

U.S. saw GB and GBP. Japan had the GBLight.

The 3DS is not another version of the DS, though. It is the next handheld system from Nintendo. Therefore, it's not so surprising to go back to 2001 to see the GB/GBC/GBA as a previous example of this kind of transition. For the DS, we have DS and DSi software (compare to GB and GBC). 3DS is it's own entirely new generation of software (different screen resolutions, likely much higher power) (compare to GBA, which had different screen resolutions and much higher power).

jvm said:
This extends to consoles.
Click to expand...

Nintendo has always treated their consoles separately from their handhelds when it comes to revisions. The NES and SNES got single, very late generation revisions, but really no such big change since. Nothing like the handheld lines.

jvm said:
The GameCube started with some extra ports, but those disappeared completely once the ports were cut.
Click to expand...

The digital out was removed. All the ports stayed in place.
 
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