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April 2010 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Gamasutra posted my comments on the NPD Group data released last week. The article is here:
Direct link to Gamasutra story about April 2010 NPD data.
Things of interest:
  • Rundown of analyst reasons for the April 2010 YOY drop, plus some additional comments.
  • Estimation of where the loss came from in April 2010 (see figure below).
  • PS2 sales were indeed below PSP, down over 70% YOY.
  • DSi XL was a large portion of DS sales in April.

An image from the article:
source-of-apr-2010-miss.png


I'm super-busy today. Have no idea when I'll be back to fix things. Sorry.

As always, I'm up for corrections, comments, etc. Please don't take a lack of immediate response personally -- I may simply not be here. My overlordseditors will probably be watching the thread, so changes may happen without a direct response from me.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
2007: Oct Nov Dec
2008: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010: Jan Feb Mar
 
So PS2 <51k. I suppose we're not going to be getting this kind of info every month heh.

Used Single Player Games – By far one of the more interesting analyses came from Creutz of Cowen & Company who suggested that some of the decline in April was due to poor second-month sales of March's new releases. NPD's Frazier appeared to agree, noting that new releases declined 75% from March to April 2010 while the corresponding figure for March and April 2009 was only 54%.

However, Creutz goes on to add an angle that we find interesting: that the single-player nature of March's God of War III and Final Fantasy XIII hurt their second-month sales as consumers opted for used copies (at retailers like GameStop) instead of new ones.

He notes that, by comparison, Battlefield: Bad Company 2, a game with a very strong multiplayer component and an earlier launch date, saw stronger second-month sales, exceeding April sales of the other two games combined
Click to expand...

Pachter redeemed, a little. Multi becoming a must have component?
 
While an exact hardware breakdown is not publicly available, we can estimate that at worst the Nintendo DS platform now has an average price that is at least $8 higher than the system's 2004 launch price of $150. We're not aware of any other console or handheld whose average price has risen above its launch price after more than five years on the market.
Click to expand...
itprintsmoney.gif
 
Isn't it strange that portable revenue accounted for more than 50% of the pie.
The price point and software volume should be lower than console one.
Or have I a wrong impression ?

EDIT:
Argh I read the chart wrong ...
 
Seeing the PS2 delisted is seriously a sad state of affairs. One of the remnants of what has to have been the greatest Generation of gaming so far is now over. I mean, XBOX and GC were gone years ago, but PS2 kept the generation alive, and now it's really dead. I mean, soon, PS2 ports of EA games will stop. :/
 
Celine said:
Isn't it strange that portable revenue accounted for more than 50% of the pie.
The price point and software volume should be lower than console one.
Or have I a wrong impression ?
Click to expand...
It's an accounting of the loss. Last April the DS platform sold over 1 million units. This year it was less than half that. When you have that many fewer people buying a system, you probably also have a commensurate drop in the number of new software units for that system.

But that's just my take.
 
jvm said:
It's an accounting of the loss. Last April the DS platform sold over 1 million units. This year it was less than half that. When you have that many fewer people buying a system, you probably also have a commensurate drop in the number of new software units for that system.

But that's just my take.
Click to expand...
Yep, I read it wrong :-\
 
jvm said:
It's an accounting of the loss. Last April the DS platform sold over 1 million units. This year it was less than half that. When you have that many fewer people buying a system, you probably also have a commensurate drop in the number of new software units for that system.

But that's just my take.
Click to expand...
I agree with your take but 1 million units in April is a crazy amount ( DSi launch isn't it ? ).
The drop was to be expected.

EDIT:
Wow FF XIII sold , 360 and PS3 version combined, less than 100K in its second month. 8 ltd should be around 1.4 million )
 
szaromir said:
What are the changes exactly?
Click to expand...

They now only offer the top 5 software sales, in addition to no longer reporting PS2 hardware sales. They used to present the top 10, and outlets like Gamasutra were able to occasionally secure figures for games further down the charts.
 
Jtyettis said:
Pachter redeemed, a little. Multi becoming a must have component?
Click to expand...
As much as I would prefer single player games to stay like that, this could become a reality for all games, eventually. With home systems boasting robust, ever evolving online components, and portable ones closely following them, I think it's just a matter of time.
 
Celine said:
I agree with your take but 1 million units in April is a crazy amount ( DSi launch isn't it ? ).
The drop was to be expected.

EDIT:
Wow FF XIII sold , 360 and PS3 version combined, less than 100K in its second month. 8 ltd should be around 1.4 million )
Click to expand...

Hardcore as frontloaded as ever. Seems crazy just 100k.
 
DMeisterJ said:
Seeing the PS2 delisted is seriously a sad state of affairs. One of the remnants of what has to have been the greatest Generation of gaming so far is now over. I mean, XBOX and GC were gone years ago, but PS2 kept the generation alive, and now it's really dead. I mean, soon, PS2 ports of EA games will stop. :/
Click to expand...
I loved the PS2 too, but dude... It's time to let go.
 
Celine said:
Wow FF XIII sold , 360 and PS3 version combined, less than 100K in its second month. 8 ltd should be around 1.4 million )
Click to expand...
Rough, but FFs are always super duper front-loaded. Factor in that XIII was fairly early on in March and didn't exactly have the best word of mouth, not to mention the entire industry dropping like a rock last month, and it makes sense. It will probably stay kicking around those numbers for a while, though.
 
SteelAttack said:
As much as I would prefer single player games to stay like that, this could become a reality for all games, eventually. With home systems boasting robust, ever evolving online components, and portable ones closely following them, I think it's just a matter of time.
Click to expand...

I'd love a great single player game...but apparently developers like to fill games with segments that i NEVER WANT TO PLAY AGAIN, which causes me to want to sell a game instead of replay it a year down the line when maybe there is some dlc added too. Mass Effect 2 was close to getting traded in with its mining crap. God of War 3 had too many boring parts nestled in the good stuff, and FFXIII was so slow/linear you can only really play it once and MAYBE meander in the plains a bit afterwards.
 
Very nice read. I would venture another reason for software sales declines, in addition to the various untracked revenue sources, is the lack of compelling value in the retail game library. Specifically, the underwhelming Greatest Hits / Platinum lines on the PS3/360 and the complete lack of Player's Choice on the Wii. Last gen, this market was served well at traditional retail. This gen, I would guess that these customers are turning more and more to the used game market to meet their demand for low-price quality software.
 
Leondexter said:
Very nice read. I would venture another reason for software sales declines, in addition to the various untracked revenue sources, is the lack of compelling value in the retail game library. Specifically, the underwhelming Greatest Hits / Platinum lines on the PS3/360 and the complete lack of Player's Choice on the Wii.
Click to expand...

Actually looking at what's technically in the PS3 and 360 budget lines on Wikipedia they're both somewhat better than I thought, but these lines seem to be far less prominent at retail than the lines last generation were, which is something I have a bit of trouble explaining.
 
charlequin said:
Actually looking at what's technically in the PS3 and 360 budget lines on Wikipedia they're both somewhat better than I thought, but these lines seem to be far less prominent at retail than the lines last generation were, which is something I have a bit of trouble explaining.
Click to expand...

That's pretty much my thoughts on the matter, too. I expect they're not performing very well, though. The price point is $30, which is a much larger increase to a customer used to or expecting to pay $20 than $60 is to a customer used to paying $50. If the line wasn't going to stay at $20, I'd have expected it to become $25, not $30.
 
sillymonkey321 said:
I'd love a great single player game...but apparently developers like to fill games with segments that i NEVER WANT TO PLAY AGAIN, which causes me to want to sell a game instead of replay it a year down the line when maybe there is some dlc added too. Mass Effect 2 was close to getting traded in with its mining crap. God of War 3 had too many boring parts nestled in the good stuff, and FFXIII was so slow/linear you can only really play it once and MAYBE meander in the plains a bit afterwards.
Click to expand...
This is also true. Even though from the three games you list as examples I can only agree with one (I found some perverse excitement and masochistic joy in scanning planets in ME2, and the only part of GoW3 that I found boring was that one bit before the end), I do understand where are you coming from.

I'd pick a short, focused single-player game with a compelling multiplayer mode such as Uncharted 2's, over a SP game that overstays its welcome for too long.
 
It seems like the back-catalog sales could have dropped off a lot, which would take out some of the "constant" sales expected to prop up a weak month for new releases. This sort of feeds into Leondexter's point. As charlequin pointed out, though, for PS360, it's not so much that the selection is poor but rather that most of those consumers are buying first month (and not later) this gen compared to last gen. Leads to higher drops in second month and poorer long-term sales. For Wii, this should very much have to do with a lack of an official Player's Choice line, though. The Wii's consumers are the mainstream consumers who would be more likely to heavily purchase a Player's Choice line, as they aren't particularly interested in staying on the cutting edge of new releases and probably actively look at the price (and not reviews) when deciding to take a chance on a new game.

Without access to the full numbers or a specific comment from someone with access to the full numbers, it'd be hard to qualify/quantify that effect, though.
 
donny2112 said:
The Wii's consumers are the mainstream consumers who would be more likely to heavily purchase a Player's Choice line, as they aren't particularly interested in staying on the cutting edge of new releases and probably actively look at the price (and not reviews) when deciding to take a chance on a new game.
Click to expand...

Yes, exactly. And I think there's a growing gap there. We've seen that Wii customers have been largely choosing Nintendo's titles to buy (or, as I say, driven there by poor quality), but Nintendo doesn't drop prices on their own titles; they either continue to sell full-price or discontinue them. So a customer unwilling to pay $50 (or who's already bought Nintendo's key titles), who's been burnt by shovelware, is maybe going used looking for a deal, or just going elsewhere for entertainment.

donny2112 said:
Without access to the full numbers or a specific comment from someone with access to the full numbers, it'd be hard to qualify/quantify that effect, though.
Click to expand...

For sure. And even with full numbers, as jvm points out, there are many untracked online services now, presumably eating up more market share as time goes on.
 
MetatronM said:
Rough, but FFs are always super duper front-loaded. Factor in that XIII was fairly early on in March and didn't exactly have the best word of mouth, not to mention the entire industry dropping like a rock last month, and it makes sense. It will probably stay kicking around those numbers for a while, though.
Click to expand...

MGS4 did pretty much the same (kicking around decent MoM numbers in the sub 100k category).
 
Not strictly relevant, but...wtf?

http://news.punchjump.com/blog/2010/05/17/ps3-slim-sold-out-limited-at-us-retail/

Sony Corp.’s Playstation 3 held a sold out and limited status at online retailers due to high demand for the hardware.

This week, the PS3 120GB held a sold out status Best Buy Co. Inc.’s online division.

In addition, the PS3 120GB requires a two to four week shipping period from Amazon.com.
Click to expand...

Your last FY is over Sony...you can start making PS3s again now :lol

Really though...has that new model that showed up in Japan shown up in the US yet? Maybe there's a different configuration of SKUs due for the US and they've not arrived?
 
Jtyettis said:
So PS2 <51k. I suppose we're not going to be getting this kind of info every month heh.



Pachter redeemed, a little. Multi becoming a must have component?
Click to expand...

Shoehorned in where it don't belong by armchair devs who don't understand causality? I hope to hell not.
 
Just wanted to say 'thank you' for actually looking at the impact of Easter over the years and expressing some skepticism toward the multi-player vs. single-player comments based on Battlefied 2 and God of War instead of just repeating what the analysts said and leaving it at that. :)
 
Article said:
While an exact hardware breakdown is not publicly available, we can estimate that at worst the Nintendo DS platform now has an average price that is at least $8 higher than the system's 2004 launch price of $150. We're not aware of any other console or handheld whose average price has risen above its launch price after more than five years on the market.
Click to expand...


Wow!

That is fucking bananas! Jesus.
 
donny2112 said:
Just wanted to say 'thank you' for actually looking at the impact of Easter over the years and expressing some skepticism toward the multi-player vs. single-player comments based on Battlefied 2 and God of War instead of just repeating what the analysts said and leaving it at that. :)
Click to expand...
Thanks. It feels weird to do that, since I have to presume they have so much more information at their disposal than I have. The Easter thing has bothered me before, and while I don't think I have enough data to make a case one way or the other, I thought the software figures were dubious enough to make the case that it's not obvious that Easter is a major factor in sales.

It was a rough month for me. I spent a long time writing down ideas and doodling with numbers looking for angles, and then I wasn't sure how it would all shake out when I finally sat down and started writing.
 
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