the broke and the torque
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BO 0826-2816 - Audiences Don't Breathe as Suicide Squad slips to second
- Thread starter xaosslug
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the broke and the torque
Well it's absolutely not two times, that's way too low unless litterly nothing was spent on marketing and everything else.
I'm actually thinking about this more and trying to trace the people I have asked about it.
WB guy told me it the first time.
A Sony VP said that was about right.
Someone in development at Fox said that seemed high "but who knows."
And a Disney woman refused to talk about it.
That WB guy was at a fundraiser in 2012 I think.
Hollywood comes out with shit like LOTR and HP never making a profit - their accountants are amazing.
Mortimer Brewster
Member
Also Movie Execs love to do some creative accounting to ensure the movies never make a profit. Very few films make profit on the books. The marketing costs may on paper be the same level as the budget but in reality much lower and only the executives and the accountants know the true numbers.
If it's a DC movie you gotta make $900 million to break even or it's by default a box office fail.
This stuff is probably pretty close to the mark.
However, we need to remember that comic films have a much better batting average than your typical $100M+ blockbuster film.
Let's look at his numbers for a minute, and let's completely ignore ancillary revenue and marketing for simplicity's sake.
The average $100M+ blockbuster has a production budget of $150M and takes in about $70M domestic and about $100M international in earnings for its studio. For argument's sake, let's say that 10% of the international earnings from a $150M blockbuster comes from China. That would be a $40M Chinese gross on average, which is probably in the right ballpark when you account for films that don't get a Chinese release at all (and the flops like Pan), vs the few Civil Wars and Zootopias propping up the numbers.
So studio earnings are $70M domestic, $90M international, and ~$10M China on an average blockbuster costing $150M.
Use the general 55% domestic, 40% international, and 25% China gross participation rule to get rough theatrical grosses of $127M domestic, $225M international, and $40M worldwide. That's $352M without China, and just under $400M with China. We can go back through the past several years of blockbusters to compare that to the actual average, but $350-400M worldwide looks to be generally correct to me.
So let's focus on the ~$350M average without China, since that is directly comparable with the list of superhero films I posted above.
On that list are 3 films that don't meet our $100M+ budget criteria (Deadpool, Hellboy 2, and Ghost Rider). Throwing those out, you have 30 superhero films from the past 8+ years. Here are how those 30 films stack up in comparison to the overall $100M+ blockbuster averages discussed above
Code:
All $100M+ blockbusters $100M+ Super hero films (since 2008)
Avg WW gross (minus China) $350M $605M
Reported Production Budget $150M $185M
Gross/Budget Ratio 2.33x 3.29xIt's not just the Avengers and TDK boosting things either. 25 of the 30 comic book films were over that "$350M outside of China" average gross.
21 of the 30 had grosses of at least $400M outside of China. Over half had grosses over $550M outside of China. If we just look at films released after the post-Avengers bump, only The Wolverine and Fantastic Four failed to hit $400M. Those two, plus Ant-Man and X-Men Apocalypse were the only post Avengers films under $550M WW minus China.
The only films with a worse Gross to Budget ratio than that of the general $100M+ blockbuster average were Green Lantern, Watchmen, Fantastic Four (2015), Green Hornet, Amazing Spider-Man 2, and The Incredible Hulk. No one disputes any of those films doing poorly. X-Men First Class and Apocalypse had about the same multiplier as the overall average.
If you look at the author's overall breakdown of costs and expenses, you'd notice that the average film either breaks even or is pretty close to breaking even over the course if its lifetime. Using the same yardstick for comic films, at least 80% of the $100M+ comicbook films released since Iron Man 1 hit that break-even point. Perhaps more, since superhero films have more merchandising opportunities and better home video sales than a random $100M film does.
Future Foundation
Member
Nice job by Don't Breathe (and Lights Out). The next horror movie coming is Blair Witch, correct? That comes out right after my birthday.
Saw Don't Breathe, and while it was well-crafted, I was pretty blown away by the high critical reception. The movie was super intense, but all of its intensity was predicated on every single character acting like a complete moron. I'm a big horror fan, and consider myself to have a pretty high tolerance for the tropes, but I can't remember the last time I've been that discouraged by each character being so completely dumb. Literally every decision they made had me roll my eyes.
Thrillers like 10 Cloverfield Lane, which aren't exactly the same but share some of the same DNA, have spoiled me with their intelligence.
Thrillers like 10 Cloverfield Lane, which aren't exactly the same but share some of the same DNA, have spoiled me with their intelligence.
Why do you need your niece to see it?
It's an all ages film. There's absolutely nothing wrong with an adult going to see it on their own. I work at a movie theater and people do that all the time.
I took my mom with me to see it and we both loved it. Don't deprive yourself of the experience of seeing it on a big screen!
I can't believe we're back to thinking WB budgeted Suicide Squad with the prospect that it was going to make over 800M worldwide. It was ludicrous thinking last week, it still is now.
Was there discussion about MoS losing WB money back then? I remember the legs being kinda shit and laughs about the possibility of Thor 2 beating it worldwide (which almost happened) but I don't recall people saying it lost WB money...
Was there discussion about MoS losing WB money back then? I remember the legs being kinda shit and laughs about the possibility of Thor 2 beating it worldwide (which almost happened) but I don't recall people saying it lost WB money...
Ninja Scooter
Member
if MoS weren't successful I don't think they would have doubled down and handed Snyder the keys to their movie universe.
BronsonLee
Member
This is what happens when I bring up Suicide Squad
GoTG was probably their peak with this film. Going to come within striking distance without China. I have to think WB knew there was a good chance it would not get a release in China.
Things looked bad after the OD drop but in the end it looks like SS will end up as good as WB could have hoped.
Surface of Me
I'm not an NPC. And neither are we.
Anecdotal, but surprising SS is still selling out certain times in theaters around here.
Personally, I really enjoyed War Dogs. I think this film is really going to find an audience on home video etc.
I wonder if Don't Breathe ill put Fede Alvarez into a higher 'bracket' as a director. I know he's been courted for some bigger studios projects, I wonder if this hitting is what puts him over the top. Also, Lights Out continues to do really impressive business for WB.
Every week I check the WW numbers for Beyond and every week they barely seem to be increasing at all. I'm assuming that the Chinese release will inflate it but even still those are some horrible foreign box office returns.
Rumoured budget numbers aside the $350m that Tarzan pulled in seems pretty solid, especially since it was some people's lock in for 2016's bomb of the year.
Another tremendous post. A great read, thanks.
I feel like you've answered your own question here.
HINT - Rumours are not a source.
Uhhhh, Matt met the owner of RKO Pictures while at a bare knuckle boxing match held in the carpark of a KFC.
I think he knows what he's talking about.
I wonder if Don't Breathe ill put Fede Alvarez into a higher 'bracket' as a director. I know he's been courted for some bigger studios projects, I wonder if this hitting is what puts him over the top. Also, Lights Out continues to do really impressive business for WB.
Every week I check the WW numbers for Beyond and every week they barely seem to be increasing at all. I'm assuming that the Chinese release will inflate it but even still those are some horrible foreign box office returns.
Rumoured budget numbers aside the $350m that Tarzan pulled in seems pretty solid, especially since it was some people's lock in for 2016's bomb of the year.
Another tremendous post. A great read, thanks.
I feel like you've answered your own question here.
HINT - Rumours are not a source.
MESS @ this thread becoming Matt vs. Neogaf.
Uhhhh, Matt met the owner of RKO Pictures while at a bare knuckle boxing match held in the carpark of a KFC.
I think he knows what he's talking about.
BronsonLee
Member
Busty stop bringing up Tarzan, it just makes me look stupid
I invested heavily in leopard skin Speedos thinking that there would be a craze in loin cloth inspired beach wear after Tarzan was released.
Sadly not.
That film has made fools of us both.
Yates will never stop turning out hits.
BronsonLee
Member
Man, if Tarzan didn't do it, I have no clue what will
paragonpro
Banned
I think thats because there was more of a divide between critics and the audience with this one. Yeah there are people who dislike who are totally justified to that opinion, but wom seems to be stronger than say bvs which was near universally hailed as garbage rocks. Thats how it was for me anyway, loved squad and hated bvs.
I spent all year telling you guys Harley and Joker would put asses in the seats. I think this makes up for my overzealous BvS predictions.
I mean, this is sort of common knowledge. Here's a comment by Shu Yoshida where he says only 40% of playstation games SCE publishes make any money. Matt's right...these are hit media.
edit: Ah crap it's dualshockers.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
Dualshockers
IN 2016
IN 2016
shut it, clank
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
At that time, sony wouldn't get any merchandise share, so not sure why they count 25M in revenue for that.
Same as the 5M revenue for XMen DOFP merchandise:
http://deadline.com/2015/03/x-men-days-of-future-past-profit-box-office-2014-1201389620/
I haven't seen an XMen merchandise out in the wild in years, especially one tied to the movies (Which is where Fox would get a share). Also, where in that sheet would the licensing fee cost go? I can't really tell.
They also have 0 in merchandise for SW TFA which is confusing, to say the least.
http://deadline.com/2016/03/star-wa...ovie-profit-2015-lucasfilm-disney-1201726142/
That said, their estimates for 2014 and 2015 do make sense, as I would expect most movies to make profits, even if marginal profits.
I think the only movie left that has a shot of beating that mark this year is Rogue One.
Man, people suck. I wasn't preaching anything, just talking. On a discussion board. About things topic related. Calmly and politely. About a topic I have some knowledge of. And I was perfectly willing to adapt my point of view based on the discussion.
Ugh. I'm sorry I may have...overestimated the marketing budget of some major motion pictures? That is a serious sin. You're right, the only value I have to anyone here is dropping sweet insider info. I'll shut up otherwise.
manzoman96
Member
Just got back from Kubo what a fantastic movie! I hope it has some steady legs at least for a little bit. It's definitely one of my favorites that I've seen this year.
Hopefully you continue to participate. Box office Gaf is better now that it isnt mostly me talking to myself like it was a couple of years ago
It really is a great film. I hope that it finds an audience overseas.
TropicalFish
Member
RISE KUBO RISE.
Don't sweat it, especially not grief from wachie
Violence Jack
Member
I think it's time for a best/worst summer movies 2016 thread. Someone want to make it?
A war zone. Bring your flame shields.
While I disagreed with you in this thread I think your posts have been well thought out and contributed to the discussion. I know it sucks to be ripped apart for a post, but don't sweat it. Your posts are good and worthwhile.
Biff
Member
This is the kind of discussion I look forward to in box office threads. Debunking the black box of movie financials.
Great posts by Matt and kswis.
I'm completely suprised by the 'worldwide gross divide by 2' rule of thumb, as it just seems so damn punitive.
But 2x budget to find total budget including marketing is something I've heard for years now and still seems to be true.
Keep at it all!
P.S. dat Deadpool gross-to-budget ratio
P.P.S. The Squad is a hit. Today I saw it, and now must admit, I felt it was shit.
Great posts by Matt and kswis.
I'm completely suprised by the 'worldwide gross divide by 2' rule of thumb, as it just seems so damn punitive.
But 2x budget to find total budget including marketing is something I've heard for years now and still seems to be true.
Keep at it all!
P.S. dat Deadpool gross-to-budget ratio
P.P.S. The Squad is a hit. Today I saw it, and now must admit, I felt it was shit.
BronsonLee
Member
I will walk into it, poop on the floor, and spell out B E Y O N D as the top movie
10 Cloverfield Lane
So Summer's more or less settled at this point.
Top 10 films this summer:
1) Finding Dory - $480-485M
2) Captain America: Civil War - $409M
3) The Secret Life of Pets - $365-375M
4) Suicide Squad - $305-320M
5) Jason Bourne - $165-175M
6) Star Trek Beyond - $155-160M
7) X-Men Apocalypse - $155M
8) Ghostbusters - $127-129M
9) Central Intelligence - $127M
10) The Legend of Tarzan - $126M
Bad Moms could end up bumping Tarzan off the bottom of the list if it continues to get those sub 30s holds.
Top 10 films this summer:
1) Finding Dory - $480-485M
2) Captain America: Civil War - $409M
3) The Secret Life of Pets - $365-375M
4) Suicide Squad - $305-320M
5) Jason Bourne - $165-175M
6) Star Trek Beyond - $155-160M
7) X-Men Apocalypse - $155M
8) Ghostbusters - $127-129M
9) Central Intelligence - $127M
10) The Legend of Tarzan - $126M
Bad Moms could end up bumping Tarzan off the bottom of the list if it continues to get those sub 30s holds.
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