-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
December 2012 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 7
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
shinra-bansho
Member
Worth taking note of in one's predictions?
sales are below expectations
archnemesis
Member
[360] 1360k
[3DS] 850k
[PS3] 810k
[PSV] 210k
[WII] 550k
[WIU] 550k
[3DS] 850k
[PS3] 810k
[PSV] 210k
[WII] 550k
[WIU] 550k
Maybe. Who is that?
pieatorium
Member
That dude from the mars movie
Ah.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
[360] 1350k
[3DS] 1250k
[PS3] 850k
[PSV] 280k
[WII] 500k
[WIU] 400k
Feel like I might be underrating the November to December bump though. Was low last year, but mostly has been exceptionally high.
Then again, I'm not sure about the legs of some of November's releases and that could bring down console sales.
[3DS] 1250k
[PS3] 850k
[PSV] 280k
[WII] 500k
[WIU] 400k
Feel like I might be underrating the November to December bump though. Was low last year, but mostly has been exceptionally high.
Then again, I'm not sure about the legs of some of November's releases and that could bring down console sales.
[360] 1400K
[3DS] 1000K
[PS3] 950K
[WIU] 420K
[WII] 390K
[PSV] 240K
The order looks tough to call this month, at least to me. I have a feeling the PS3 could creep over a million, but not positive. The 3DS should do over a million, but by how much? And the Wii U and Wii shouldn't be battling around the 400K mark... but I think they are.
Pretty sure this month will sink me. Oh well.
[3DS] 1000K
[PS3] 950K
[WIU] 420K
[WII] 390K
[PSV] 240K
The order looks tough to call this month, at least to me. I have a feeling the PS3 could creep over a million, but not positive. The 3DS should do over a million, but by how much? And the Wii U and Wii shouldn't be battling around the 400K mark... but I think they are.
Pretty sure this month will sink me. Oh well.
shinra-bansho
Member
Just noticed the sentence after the statement about Wii U sales being disappointing has been omitted from most new stories:
"Keep in mind investor expectations with respect to Wii U were already fairly low going into the launch."
"Keep in mind investor expectations with respect to Wii U were already fairly low going into the launch."
Any particular reason?
This month is a bit of a crapshoot. Especially with the Wii U.Pretty sure this month will sink me. Oh well.
Yeah, I was looking at previous years and the PS3 was over a million in 2009. In that year its Jan - Oct sales were over 2 million and then 700K in Nov. Then it hit well over a million in December (1.36mm). In terms of just those two data points (Jan - Oct and then Nov) this year is kind of similar.
Lots of things have changed since then. Black Friday has become more prominent for moving hardware bundles. The entire console market is way down. Sony lacked a real system-selling title in the last quarter. The price cut in 2009 was a much bigger deal than the crap they pulled this year.
But just amongst my personal contacts, there was a lot more interest in the PS3 this year. Part of that is just PS+-related stuff, but some of it was just along the lines of "been waiting for a while to buy one" kind of stuff.
But who knows? I'm certainly no psychic.
Colonel Mustard
Banned
[360] 1300K
[3DS] 1100K
[PS3] 900K
[WIU] 510K
[WII] 490K
[PSV] 180K
[3DS] 1100K
[PS3] 900K
[WIU] 510K
[WII] 490K
[PSV] 180K
Pachter should open a gamefaqs account, the guy seems to suffer from a Nintendo syndrome. Lol, 675K for December... As a Nintendo fan I'd be really pleased with this level of performance for the Wii U (I predicted 525K, which is just ok in my mind) which would put it at 1000K for the US alone.
I can perfectly comprehend being anxious on the software side if what he said will be real...but how can 675k be considered bad for Wii U in December hardwarewise? Wii did 600k in December 2006. Sure, it was supply costrained, but still...how can almost 700k in December for a brand new console launched in November be bad? O__O
And still, I don't see Wii U not even near that number in December
"O__O" indeed.
Yeah, I meant November
I really wrote October? Why I wrote October instead of November? whyyyyyyyyyy :lol
opticalmace
Member
Check the OP... you have ~5.5 hours left.
Oh sweet, forgot about that counter. Thanks
Why did Nintendo launch in November? Why!?! Oct. 30 with AC3 and in time to have same day launch for BOpsII made so much more sense.
Launching in September made even more sense to me.
I thought it was pretty clear that they didn't have all their ducks in a row, especially with respect to network functionality. I don't know what 3rd party software quality would have been like with a month less to launch in.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
What's Pachter's track record with these predictions been lately? I remember times when it was right on so he probably has a hint of what they'll be beforehand. 600k+ would be a big boost for the system.
Worst analyst in the industry ever who has no f'king clue. If he predicts something, expect the opposite to happen.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
Interesting even it doesn't tell us anything about what the real numbers will be, but there also is an analyst from EEDAR predicting 600K for the Wii U > http://www.computerandvideogames.com/385270/wii-u-sales-hit-600k-in-december-in-the-us-analysts/?
Edit:
It's a rough market out there right now. For the year he's doing better than that one month would suggest.
shinra-bansho
Member
EEDAR took a hit in my mind when they predicted 170K for the Wii in November even after PR about Black Friday sales... EDIT: Actually did that end up being a different company?
Oh well, the bullishness for all platforms surprises me. I'll up my numbers slightly, but still feel like this month is going to tank me.
Oh well, the bullishness for all platforms surprises me. I'll up my numbers slightly, but still feel like this month is going to tank me.
Colonel Mustard
Banned
Quick question. What are WW LTD- estimates for the 360 and PS3?
Yeah, Pacther has been making actual crazy predictions this year.
He has a better record than most, though:
3rd in 2011
5th in 2010
4th in 2009
It would be interesting to see if Pacther has been mostly wrong for overestimating the industry this year.
To be fair, November was historically insane for how close everyone was for the predictions for the month. Look at the past four year's November Top 10s for units. Pachter would've been Top 10 in each of them, for reference.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
This is what I was referring to, I knew he was up there. He either, 1) is given hints on what the numbers could be, like a ballpark range, or 2) his investment firm's predictions are that good.
I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up 600k+, maybe in the high 500s.
perfectchaos007
Member
[360] 800K
[3DS] 690K
[PS3] 790K
[PSV] 167K
[WII] 266K
[WIU] 588K
[3DS] 690K
[PS3] 790K
[PSV] 167K
[WII] 266K
[WIU] 588K
perfectchaos007
Member
lol you got your prediction in with 0:00 to spare. kudos
Tonight we will see if the IDC report is to be believed (at least for the US).
If everyone is down at least 20-30% YoY, it's safe to assume that report is bull (because we already have Japan numbers).
If everyone is down at least 20-30% YoY, it's safe to assume that report is bull (because we already have Japan numbers).