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NPD Sales for July 2015

Grimgrillz

Banned
Feb 12, 2015
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Well basically the price has to hit $250 or lower before the end of 2015 with at least one game bundled.

The price must be officially announced by Microsoft themselves as part of a holiday bundle or something. It can be temporary or permanent. It can't just be one store/clearance sale/used console, must be official price.

Winner gets avatar control from November NPD results day through December NPD results day.

If price remains over $250 then I win. If price drops below $250 with at least one game bundled then you win.

Seriously Z! The bolded. MS are not going to announce that officially but I do have full confidence we'll be able to pick up a $250 XB bundle with games in the not too distant future.
 

Grimgrillz

Banned
Feb 12, 2015
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I can see 300$ official price and 280$ unofficial during Black Friday, but there is no way for a 250$ price, not even unofficial during Black Friday, let alone 250$ + 4 games...

Do you remember the official XB bundle deal MS put out to counter the PS4 Arkham Knight bundle?

From memory (so feel free to correct me if I make a mistake here) the bundle was. AC Unity, MCC, Free game of choice (aka Arkham) and $50 for gold marketplace for $350. And that was just their reaction to Arkham. A sold gaming experience which if you haven't played I'd highly recommend on either platform. But in terms of sales and the potential to move consoles small beans in comparison to Battlefront and BOPS3.

What makes you think that they wouldn't go to that level of Bomba if they Bomba to that degree in the off season of June?
 

serversurfer

Member
Aug 31, 2013
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Plus $50 to spent on market!

$60 X 4 + $50 = $290

Yet they'd be selling for $250! WHAT A FUCKING DEAL!
Don't forget the free year of Gold. :p

Anyway, you jest, but keep in mind that Abdiel said MS were footing the bill for those Samsung TVs. That way, MS still book the full revenue on the console, and don't need to tell their shareholders they needed to devalue channel inventory. Instead, they simply spend $360 in "marketing" for each console sold (on top of whatever else was being bundled with the console already). That seems like a lot, but remember that huge chunks of their marketing budget was recently freed up.

Of course, it's possible MS were only paying BB the wholesale price on the TVs and it actually cost them less than $360/sale, but presumably, BB bought those TVs because they planned on profiting on them, so it seems unlikely they'd be willing to sell them to MS at cost. Then again, maybe BB were just happy to be rid of the Bones. /shrug
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
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I'm with you there man, the NPD had promised GAF the top ten with sales #s...what happened?

Metal Gear Solid (1) was #1 In October '98 with 253,000 sold.

They don't care with GAF and they don't even have competition. I believe that 3 trackers in Japan is what drive public info.

And thanks for the info, now I have all opening months for MGS main serie.
 

Grimgrillz

Banned
Feb 12, 2015
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Don't forget the free year of Gold. :p

Anyway, you jest, but keep in mind that Abdiel said MS were footing the bill for those Samsung TVs. That way, MS still book the full revenue on the console, and don't need to tell their shareholders they needed to devalue channel inventory. Instead, they simply spend $360 in "marketing" for each console sold (on top of whatever else was being bundled with the console already). That seems like a lot, but remember that huge chunks of their marketing budget was recently freed up.

Of course, it's possible MS were only paying BB the wholesale price on the TVs and it actually cost them less than $360/sale, but presumably, BB bought those TVs because they planned on profiting on them, so it seems unlikely they'd be willing to sell them to MS at cost. Then again, maybe BB were just happy to be rid of the Bones. /shrug

Please link me to Abdiel's post on this.
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
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How can you be sure of that?

Because it's a very easy achievement. The game will be available on four consoles and first month on NPD will be 5 weeks of sales.

Even PS4 version alone can be close to 1 million (if not surpass).
 

serversurfer

Member
Aug 31, 2013
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Please link me to Abdiel's post on this.
Here ya go…
The information I was given by my manager in regards to this deal is that MS is fronting the money to cover the costs of the TV in terms of how this is discounted. Obviously he wasn't there for the inking of any deals between the companies, but he's had the same information regarding when Sony is promoting a special deal. And from our store profit margins, TVs are already low margin items for us, and game consoles are nil in terms of profit. We make our money on the accessories/games, etc.)
 
Nov 3, 2014
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MS really should do same deal with Gamestop regarding Blobs3 and Battlefront as Sony did with Madden (as in buy PS4 and get Madden free with it). That would really help them soften the blow of losing marketing rights.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
May 23, 2013
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Seriously Z! The bolded. MS are not going to announce that officially but I do have full confidence we'll be able to pick up a $250 XB bundle with games in the not too distant future.

Well what do you want me to say haha. It's not exactly fair if some retailer goes out of business and then starts selling everything for like $10 lol. Or it could be on ebay new by some seller for less....

Last year MS announced a temp price cut to $349.so the rules would need to imply this is an official price drop or temporary price drop for the holiday period.

Also you're the one who said "MS will all but giveaway their console" implying MS will announce it.

But its up to you if you want to accept?
 

Grimgrillz

Banned
Feb 12, 2015
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Abdiel's post shows they basically gave away the XB for $70 retail with that tv deal. They funded it behind the scenes because they can't or are unwilling to announce a $250 console. So if we subtract mom and pop stores, ebay, and obscure websites, I'd be willing to bet my avi for a week that a $250 XBO bundle is on the way.

If we can't agree terms on this one then I'm sure their will be another opportunity further down the line somewhere.
 

slavesnyder

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Nov 18, 2013
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Abdiel's post shows they basically gave away the XB for $70 retail with that tv deal. They funded it behind the scenes because they can't or are unwilling to announce a $250 console. So if we subtract mom and pop stores, ebay, and obscure websites, I'd be willing to bet my avi for a week that a $250 XBO bundle is on the way.

If we can't agree terms on this one then I'm sure their will be another opportunity further down the line somewhere.

Blasphemy. They gave away the TV for 100$, the XboxOne was full price.
 

Grimgrillz

Banned
Feb 12, 2015
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Blasphemy. They gave away the TV for 100$, the XboxOne was full price.

Alt accounts on gaf be like

 
Apr 22, 2009
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MS really should do same deal with Gamestop regarding Blobs3 and Battlefront as Sony did with Madden (as in buy PS4 and get Madden free with it). That would really help them soften the blow of losing marketing rights.

It would be surprising if they did not do this. I would also expect Sony to announce a special edition PS4 COD bundle soon.
 

Sangetsu-II

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Dec 5, 2014
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PS4 Arkham/TLOU Bundle (CUH-1200) + Free Madden deal is live on Amazon and Walmart now, so it isn't just a GameStop deal.

Amazon

Walmart

Walmart also gives you another free game of your choice and 3 months of PS+
 
Mar 17, 2014
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Hmmm. I mean I'd get both. But that's me haha.

Honestly they are both games in their own right as they have their own stories and separate save files etc...

If you want to save money get SW4, if you want to get the latest version with tweaks get 4-II.

I'm going to be doing a giveaway for SW4 on the Koei Warriors forum this week if you're interested.

thanks mate, i guess i have until the end of september.


btw, that batman bundle was gone with the wind yo. shit will be available again on august 31
 
Jul 24, 2008
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I think MS will have deals, but some of the deals i see here are too crazy. Why would MS 1go yhat far this year? Last year theybwere getting crushed and still had a bad image. They are still being outsold this year, but their image has improved. I dont think MS wants to lose as much as they did last year. I think theyll have decent deals, but come on.
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
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I think MS will have deals, but some of the deals i see here are too crazy. Why would MS 1go yhat far this year? Last year theybwere getting crushed and still had a bad image. They are still being outsold this year, but their image has improved. I dont think MS wants to lose as much as they did last year. I think theyll have decent deals, but come on.

Yeah, I think Microsoft was kinda desperate last year, a great holiday was crucial for Xbox One future and they managed an impressive win.

This year I don't believe they will be so aggressive, it's time to sell well but make some money.
 

CosmicQueso

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Feb 16, 2010
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I guess this means the PS4 will indeed get a price cut soon.

Why do you say this?

A proliferation of huge, big value add bundles means that prices are getting cut? It's actually more the opposite. Big value add bundles exist to keep the price high while offering higher perceived value.
 

ethomaz

is mad because DF didn't do a video on a video of a video of a video on PS5
Mar 19, 2013
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Seem like PS4 is the console choice of August in US.
 

allan-bh

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May 16, 2006
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I'm pretty sure we know who'll win August and September ;)

October is a toss imo, and Nov/ Dec will be all about price ergo depending on a possible PS4 price drop ($50 or $100).

October is a easy win for Xbox One, unless there's a PS4 price drop in the same month.
 

On Demand

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Dec 12, 2013
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Seems do Sony would do this, especially in august unless they see something we don't.

Maybe they're tired of MS's shenanigans everytime they have a bundle.

Or.....this could be to lessen the gap.

*thundercrack*


I still give XB1 the win this month but these kinds of deals can change things.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
May 23, 2013
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Abdiel's post shows they basically gave away the XB for $70 retail with that tv deal. They funded it behind the scenes because they can't or are unwilling to announce a $250 console. So if we subtract mom and pop stores, ebay, and obscure websites, I'd be willing to bet my avi for a week that a $250 XBO bundle is on the way.

If we can't agree terms on this one then I'm sure their will be another opportunity further down the line somewhere.

Deal. But it must be at a well known retailer across all stores and part of an advertised promotion and come with a minimum of one free game.

Lets make it a month haha
 

serversurfer

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Aug 31, 2013
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Why do you say this?

A proliferation of huge, big value add bundles means that prices are getting cut? It's actually more the opposite. Big value add bundles exist to keep the price high while offering higher perceived value.
Sure, but you could also argue that bundling is a way to buy time before doing an actual price cut. MS started bundling to boost sales before they cut their price. Granted, they're still bundling, but still. If Sony are bundling now, the logical assumption is that it's a response to flagging sales. As we've seen with the Bone, bundling helps, but it's not a permanent solution. I suspect Sony are aware of this as well. Also, while losing Christmas in the US last year didn't hurt them much in the grand scheme of things, I doubt they're eager to lose it again this year if they can help it.

So while bundling may not guarantee imminent price cuts, I would say they're an indicator that cuts are coming sooner than later. They certainly wouldn't seem to indicate that sales just fine and no cuts are needed, IMO. Regardless, I'd say the strongest indication of imminent price cuts is probably the lack of pricing on the holiday bundles.
 

CosmicQueso

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Feb 16, 2010
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Great points!

Sure, but you could also argue that bundling is a way to buy time before doing an actual price cut.

I can see that, absolutely. However, bigger/better bundles could also be used as a substitute for price cuts for an extended period of time.

If Sony are bundling now, the logical assumption is that it's a response to flagging sales.

Indeed this is one possible scenario. There are also others. Perhaps they built too much inventory which is sitting in a warehouse somewhere, perhaps they're being proactive in fighting competition they sense, maybe there are some shipment targets for the quarter that aren't being hit and the bundles are being done to hit a bonus number. There are far more than just one assumption that could be made for the cause of new bundles coming out.

As we've seen with the Bone, bundling helps, but it's not a permanent solution.

Depends. I thought for sure we'd see $99.99 Xbox 360 hardware by holiday, but instead we're still seeing 500GB bundles at $249.99. and 4GB bundles at $179.99. For last gen hardware which absolutely show flagging sales.

The Xbox One price wasn't just dropped. Fundamental changes to the product offering were made as well. The perceived value of the MS box can be argued as being lower than that of the PS4 due to the technical limitations, market position, software offerings, or many other factors. One could easily argue that the system was overpriced (and may still be). Not sure that's the case with the PS4.

I see your point. No, bundles are not a permanent solution. But price cuts may only be done now (possibly) as a last resort. There's no coming back from a price drop. So it certainly looks to me like these guys are doing all they can to prevent that from happening as long as they can, no?

I suspect Sony are aware of this as well. Also, while losing Christmas in the US last year didn't hurt them much in the grand scheme of things, I doubt they're eager to lose it again this year if they can help it.

I don't agree with the premise, and I'm not also not certain that Sony would consider that they "lost" last holiday. They sold a ton of HW with full margin, while MS sold more consoles but with arguably lower margin due to discounting and promotion. If I'm Sony, I take that margin and am very happy given my HW velocity and don't sweat MS selling some more boxes over a couple months. I could be wrong. But I'm not sure these guys are fighting each other as much as we may think they are or would want to.

So while bundling may not guarantee imminent price cuts, I would say they're an indicator that cuts are coming sooner than later.

I think all we can assume from what we're seeing is that bundling may become even more prevalent and aggressive. 90% of HW sales in July were of bundles. Wouldn't be surprising to see similar share of bundles in holiday. Imminent is a tough word. A year from now? Sure, I can see price cuts by holiday 2016, especially depending on what happens over the next year+. But this year? Seems like the strategies are pretty clear. But I could be wrong.

Regardless, I'd say the strongest indication of imminent price cuts is probably the lack of pricing on the holiday bundles.

Perhaps... but it could also just be a case of not wanting to box oneself in a corner on pricing for units that are not coming out for weeks when you have other products already in market you're looking to move. You may be right, but I don't think that conclusion can be reached with a high level of confidence given the available information.
 

serversurfer

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Aug 31, 2013
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Microsoft announced the Unity bundle at $399 and then later revised it to $349.
Sure, and if they were concerned about masking their intentions, Sony could've done the same. But I'm not seeing how MS reducing the pricing on an announced bundle refutes the idea that the lack of pricing on Sony's bundles indicates likely cuts.
 

ZhugeEX

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May 23, 2013
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Sure, and if they were concerned about masking their intentions, Sony could've done the same. But I'm not seeing how MS reducing the pricing on an announced bundle refutes the idea that the lack of pricing on Sony's bundles indicates likely cuts.

But Sony never announced the price on the MGS5 bundle till like 3 days ago.

What I'm saying is don't take one action as proof that a price drop must be happening. It doesn't work like that.

Also I'm 100% behind cosmic. People read too much into the terms "Win" and "Lose" NPD. At the end of the day Sony may have lost in unit sales but they had the advantage on margin by far where as the Xbox One had a very short term temporary boost at the expense of margin. The companies, whilst competing, are not too hot on how many units the other has sold as long as they're selling well.
 

Fiznu

Banned
Aug 18, 2015
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But Sony never announced the price on the MGS5 bundle till like 3 days ago.

What I'm saying is don't take one action as proof that a price drop must be happening. It doesn't work like that.

Also I'm 100% behind cosmic. People read too much into the terms "Win" and "Lose" NPD. At the end of the day Sony may have lost in unit sales but they had the advantage on margin by far where as the Xbox One had a very short term temporary boost at the expense of margin. The companies, whilst competing, are not too hot on how many units the other has sold as long as they're selling well.

AMEN! "win" or "lose" means nothing except bragging rights. A "win" is still a "loss" if the company has to sell their hardware below cost, or bundle in "free" games which lose them money. You can only trade profit for marketshare for so long before it bites you...