NPD Sales Results for March 2014 [Up4: FFX/X-2 HD]

Aug 25, 2013
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Is that really impressive. It was a sale so of course it going to sell a bit. But whether it would stay is the question.

Even looking at those numbers, at 30,000 in a month, the Wii U sold 1000 a day anyway. That 1,300 in a few hours...really isn't anything special. Long term is more important anyway.
actually, we might as well have fun with this and do some Microsoft Math™ on it
 
May 24, 2012
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I may have been a contributing factor to that....
Just looked it up, lol

You come in first at exactly 100 posts!
Wall of shame:



I guess you beat me this time. ;-)

It's funny because I don't post all that consistently throughout the month...then I post a whole lot in NPD threads and my Posts Per Day count jumps right back up.
 
Nov 2, 2013
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Yeah but your posts in NPD threads are quality while mine are well not so much :p
Psh. You both make excellent posts, with plenty of helpful, informative details...

The REAL reason you both have so many posts in this thread is from all the people who don't bother to reference back to your previous posts! So you have a ton of reposts to help people stay caught up. Haha!
 
Nov 20, 2011
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Is that really impressive. It was a sale so of course it going to sell a bit. But whether it would stay is the question.

Even looking at those numbers, at 30,000 in a month, the Wii U sold 1000 a day anyway. That 1,300 in a few hours...really isn't anything special. Long term is more important anyway.
That was an eBay seller with no advertising... Now imagine a $249 MK8 bundle with Nintendo's full marketing might behind it.
 
Mar 19, 2013
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This is an interesting question for sure; it's unfortunate we don't have the data to make hard conclusions. But for Sony we can establish some parameters to work within, because we have their worldwide retail+digital and their U.S. retail.

The precise retail sales for PS4 in the U.S. are 6.78m units. Let's begin by assuming--contra your hypothesis--that global retail tie ratio is exactly the same. U.S. hardware represents ~41% of global hardware, so if America is ~41% of retail software, then global retail sales are ~17m. Global digital sales would thus be ~3.5m units, or ~17% of total sales.

Is this scenario actually the case? We have no way to tell, and it's unlikely since it requires no variance in consumer behavior around the world. But we've established that U.S. retail tie ratio and global digital sales covary. So any idea about how one of these values differs from the scenario above automatically entails a conclusion about how the other one varies. (If the math isn't clear about why this is, I or someone else can provide further explanation.) The reciprocal constraints can be described two different ways, depending if you want to theorize about U.S. retail tie ratio or global digital sales:

1. If PS4 U.S. retail tie ratio is higher than the rest of the world, then global digital sales must be higher than 3.5m units/17% of all sales. If U.S. retail tie ratio is lower than elsewhere, then worldwide digital sales must be lower.
2. If PS4 global digital sales are higher than 3.5m units/17% of all sales, then U.S. retail tie ratio is higher than the rest of the world. If global digital sales are lower, then U.S. retail tie ratio is lower than elsewhere.
This is interesting because from what I remember the US tie ratio was bigger than the rest of the world tie ratio last gen... that increase the possibility of digital sales to be bigger than 3.5m and the US tie ratio for retail + digital is something higher than 3.

I do believe digital sales are way bigger than most believes here... mainly in US where a lot of guys are going digital only this gen.
 
Sep 11, 2011
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That's a nice narrative you have created there, loved the personal attack at the end as well.

I don't see the point of discussing ww game sales when we don't have figures. People can't even agree to disagree on DD sales in the US. So I said Sony will have sold more ww and it's still not good enough.
I agree with this, in a way discussing X1 WW performance is useless. One look at the PAL charts will show you that outside the UK, the thing is completely dead. For MS, NPD is the be all, end all now. They fail here and that's it for them. So in that case, yea, NPD is pretty much all that matters right now for the X1
 
Jan 23, 2007
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It really doesn't matter though, my original point is that software sales are healthy for the XB1 and there is no need for people to "worry" on their behalf.
While their sales are good, there's still room for worry. Yes, in the U.S. Microsoft has moved 710k pieces more at retail than Sony. However, we know ~400k of that is Titanfall vs. Infamous alone. And the remainder is unlikely to be multiplatform games; instead, it's very probably due to their larger/stronger lineup of exclusives. Overall we're talking Ryse, Dead Rising, Forza, Zoo Tycoon, and Garden Warfare against Knack, Killzone, and Injustice. To be only ~300k ahead in that confrontation is not very impressive. (Indeed, it likely indicates that on multiplat games, PS4 has a higher attach rate than Xbox One!)

Adding to the issue is the fact that One's extra sales have been bought at a cost over and above base production/marketing budgets. Ryse had to be extensively retooled and rebuilt from a 360 Kinect game; Capcom would've been paid some amount for Microsoft to assume publication of Dead Rising; and EA was paid for an exclusivity window on PvZ. Plus of course there's the exclusivity contract and unusually large marketing spend on Titanfall. Such a wide-fronted push isn't sustainable longterm for Microsoft unless they're willing to drive the platform unprofitable to maintain market share.
 
May 24, 2012
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Random tidbit of NPD data:


Total Console (PS4, XBO, WIU, PS3, 360, Wii) Software Sales: $5.3428 billion (2013)
(-7% from 2012)


Percentage:

PS3 / PS4: 36.9%
(+11% from 2012)

360 / XBO: 51.0%
(-8% from 2012)

Wii / WIU: 12.0%
(-33% from 2012)
 
Mar 19, 2013
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Random tidbit of NPD data:


Total Console (PS4, XBO, WIU, PS3, 360, Wii) Software Sales: $5.3428 billion (2013)
(-7% from 2012)


Percentage:

PS3 / PS4: 36.9%
(+11% higher from 2012)

360 / XBO: 51.0%
(-8% from 2012)

Wii / WIU: 12.0%
(-33% from 2012)
MS is loosing ground in US... 2014 will be more neck to neck than these 51% vs 37%.

BTW the "free" TF bundle copies is not counted for software revenue?

Edit - fixed.
 
Jun 12, 2012
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That was an eBay seller with no advertising... Now imagine a $249 MK8 bundle with Nintendo's full marketing might behind it.
I think it'd do a little more than a $300 MK8 bundle with Nintendo's full marketing might behind it.

But it'd be sold for $50 less, and I doubt the increased sales would be sustained for long enough to warrant doing it.

I don't think price is currently the problem. It's just not attractive period. Maybe at Chirstmas with Smash, Hyrule, X, Bayo 2 out, then a drop $250 might help. ( I doubt both X and Bayo 2 will come this year though).
 
Mar 19, 2013
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These numbers are for retail though, not including digital sales. PC likely had very little impact on these totals. What I'm curious is if the totals were even close to Second Son, and how much an impact the extra week of sales had.
It is safe to say TF on Xbone outsold ISS by at least 2:1 in US... we are looking at ~500k and ~1m in retail.
 
May 24, 2012
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MS is loosing ground in US... 2014 will be more neck to neck than these 51% vs 37%.

BTW the "free" TF bundle copies is not counted for software revenue?

Edit - fixed.
Correct.

I'm just going to use the last reporting month for a few more tidbits.


February 2014 NPD (the month before Titanfall)

Total console (PS4, XBO, WIU, PS3, 360, Wii) software sales: $277.6 million
(-8% from last year)

PS3 / PS4 marketshare: 39.7%
(+4% from last year)

360 / XBO marketshare: 47.1%
(-13% from last year)


Wii / WIU marketshare: 13.1%
(-18% from last year)

So far in 2014, PlayStation and Xbox ecosystems are getting pretty close in terms of sales. The Xbox ecosystem is just nudging out the PlayStation ecosystem, though.


And the two consoles are slowly taking over total video game sales:

PS4 + XBO -> 21% of total video game software sales in November
PS4 + XBO -> 22% of total video game software sales in December
PS4 + XBO -> 30% of total video game software sales in January
PS4 + XBO -> 27% of total video game software sales in February



And, Xbox 360 is more resilient than PS3 to getting replaced by the current-gen.

For example:


February 2014 NPD:

Xbox One -> 49% of Xbox 360 software sales
PS4 -> 63% of PS3 software sales
 
Mar 19, 2013
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Correct.

I'm just going to use the last reporting month for a few more tidbits.


February 2014 NPD (the month before Titanfall)

Total console (PS4, XBO, WIU, PS3, 360, Wii) software sales: $277.6 million
(-8% from last year)

PS3 / PS4 marketshare: 39.7%
(+4% from last year)

360 / XBO marketshare: 47.1%
(-13% from last year)


Wii / WIU marketshare: 13.1%
(-18% from last year)

So far in 2014, PlayStation and Xbox ecosystems are getting pretty close in terms of sales. The Xbox ecosystem is just nudging out the PlayStation ecosystem, though.


And the two consoles are slowly taking over total video game sales:

PS4 + XBO -> 21% of total video game software sales in November
PS4 + XBO -> 22% of total video game software sales in December
PS4 + XBO -> 30% of total video game software sales in January
PS4 + XBO -> 27% of total video game software sales in February



And, Xbox 360 is more resilient than PS3 to getting replaced by the next-gen.

For example:


February 2014 NPD:

Xbox One -> 49% of Xbox 360 software sales
PS4 -> 63% of PS3 software sales
Ohhhh thanks.

This is good... more this gen sales and less last gen is good... well the market needs migrate to PS4, Xbone and of course Wii U (sad this last one is not happening).
 
Mar 19, 2013
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If my theory about there being massive drop-offs for one or both consoles in April is true, then I think the next NPD thread will be just as long or longer...
Drops will happen due a 4 weeks month and no big release but it won't be massive... both consoles will be confortable over 200k in my view.

PS4 can even reach 300k because it will be the first month with full supply in US.
 
May 24, 2012
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Yeah I'd like to know the sales for only XB1
Who buys PC games retail anymore?

See this:

PC retail is very small, so not too high.

Like it's not unusual for PC retail games to do like 12K in their opening month NPD even for titles that might end up doing 1+ million digitally worldwide.

This is why you see a lot of companies not ship physical versions of PC games in North America anymore (they do better in Europe).
Well the last game to do 500K+ at PC retail in NPD was Diablo 3, which went on to do 12+ million on PC, so I'm feeling really good about Titanfall being a lot lower than that on PC.
 
Nov 13, 2011
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There are typically big drop-offs in April. Although I imagine there'll still be a lot of freak outs to drive the size of the next thread.

@Nirolak, I think that's a really great analogy.
Damn, my projections which I considered hugely terrifying for gaming still only amounted to a loss of 60 million units gen on gen with home consoles. shinra is over there telling me I'm being optimistic.

We start getting into the losses of hundreds of millions and we are talking literal market crash material. Like game budgets needing to be shaved by 1/3rd to 1/2 to ensure any profitability bad.
Are you talking WW or US, as I've largely been referring to the US. And I don't think we're in for a 60M unit contraction. On the matter of the contraction, or perhaps correction, I think we're largely past the worst of it, as both the music and motion bubble are really no longer in play.
(Indeed, it likely indicates that on multiplat games, PS4 has a higher attach rate than Xbox One!)
I think it's game specific on this point. Assassin's Creed for instance probably has a better PS4 attach rate, CoD Ghosts is higher in both absolute terms and attach rate on the XBO I believe.

Also, I'm not sure if anyone else noticed but it's interesting to note that Titanfall mayhave had a negative effect on CoD. PS4 has leapfrogged it in platform ordering. Although it could just be that new owners, post-supply issues, are picking up the title and that's pushed the PS4 SKU higher.

----

RE: A $250 Wii U. If there were substantial numbers of shoppers out there, well into or past their information search, waiting for a cheaper Wii U, then the price drop last year would have had a more sustained and more substantial effect. Regular retailer fire-sales in Europe would have seen more of an effect.

In terms of value proposition, price is one issue. But there are plenty of others. For instance, a purchase of the Wii U compared to pretty much any of the other home systems, bar the Wii, has higher risk of obsolescence. The system doesn't exist in a vacuum.

It still boils down to: who is the potential customer and why do they want/need a Wii U? Why should they buy it over alternatives?
Is it people looking for an upgrade to their 360 or PS3? The HW simply isn't a sufficient upgrade. And as noted above, there's risk the system won't really provide functional and experiential value for the duration of the next cycle.

Is it budget-conscious late HD adopters looking for a cheap system with lots of software, akin to those buying PS2s last gen? The 360 and PS3 have larger libraries at a cheaper entry. And are still getting more software announcements despite replacement.

I've seen people pose the idea of people looking for a secondary system. And again, as a generality people don't want multiple consoles ultimately serving the same purpose. And having Nintendo's first party output, or any of their first party output, doesn't really fly with me as something that's sufficient to drive this secondary purchase.

Unless someone absolutely needs a box just to play Nintendo's games there's no real incentive to buy a Wii U at $300, at $250, at $200, at $150. And this someone is already buying the system.
 
May 24, 2012
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Aqua when will Nintendo have their yearly results this time?
On April 10th, Nintendo corporate headquarters gave out the following information:


Nintendo Full Year Earnings Release:
May 7th, 2014 at 03:00 AM EDT

Nintendo Full Year Earnings Presentation + Q&A
May 7th, 2014 at 9:00 PM EDT

As always, the Presentation + Q&A will be at:

Hotel New Otani Tokyo
4-1 Kioi-cho, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo 102- 8578
JP
 
Jun 26, 2006
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In a Dream
On April 10th, Nintendo corporate headquarters gave out the following information:


Nintendo Full Year Earnings Release:
May 7th, 2014 at 03:00 AM EDT

Nintendo Full Year Earnings Presentation + Q&A
May 7th, 2014 at 9:00 PM EDT
Thanks Aqua.

It seems late? Maybe they are taking their time developing strategies for the new year.
 

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
Jun 11, 2013
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About these tie ratios (especially globally): I suppose the difference is pretty easy to understand with a simple statistical analysis.

Something like 70% of all sold-through Xbox Ones were sold during 2013. Conversely, for PS4 the figure is 60%. Proportionally, PS4 has sold more during this year, and since every console sold reduces the tie ratio, this can easily explain the one percentage point difference.

Furthermore, early adopters are more likely to spend more on games (OK, everybody who owns a PS4 or Xbox One at this point is an early adopter), and the absolutely first wave is probably responsible for a significant portion of video games spending. So, selling a lot in the first month and a bit less on the next couple of months is better for tie ratio than selling a lot in the first month and pretty much on the next couple of months.

Of course, we are so early into this console cycle that tie ratio is not a good metric for success. This is the time to grab market share.
 
Good point. I'm sure PlayStation Plus also plays a role. Something like half of PS4 owners have a subscription, and they've been getting one free game to play a month since launch. They have recieved games they might have otherwise bought gratis, and they have more stuff to play without having to make a purchase.
 
Feb 28, 2014
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So software is down year-on-year software? I know digital is eating into retail more and more, but it is still is somewhat worrying seeing how we just had such a strong next gen hardware launch.

We could potentially see a generation where hardware does well but retail games do poorly -not ideal of the devs and publishers. I know we are in early stages yet, but if the dev costs keep going up and the sales go down, it will be a tough spot for EAs and Activisions of this world.

I am sure Nintendo's situation affects this a lot though, and I bet the year-on-year handheld software sales are not that cheerful.
 
Sep 26, 2011
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So software is down year-on-year software? I know digital is eating into retail more and more, but it is still is somewhat worrying seeing how we just had such a strong next gen hardware launch.

We could potentially see a generation where hardware does well but retail games do poorly -not ideal of the devs and publishers. I know we are in early stages yet, but if the dev costs keep going up and the sales go down, it will be a tough spot for EAs and Activisions of this world.

I am sure Nintendo's situation affects this a lot though, and I bet the year-on-year handheld software sales are not that cheerful.
As long as digital holds up, and we have no reason to believe otheriwse, I see no reason to worry about the fall of retail games.
 

jcm

Member
Dec 8, 2008
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Why is EA so silent? Even if this aren't megaton numbers, they are still pretty good numbers, aren't they? Or they had totally exorbitant expectations.

Well, probably at E3.
We'll get something when they report earnings in May.

Well, it's not even up to MS to spill the numbers it's EA, and I was more thinking leaks from Cream.
I think he said about a million, including the bundles, not including PC.
 
Jun 13, 2012
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So the original Xbox isn't a failure because it didn't cause Microsoft to leave the business, even though it had mostly middling sales and made MS lose about $6 billion? Or the PS3 which caused Sony to lose billions of dollars and significant marketshare?
From my perspective, as a consumer, yes. Both systems had games and both systems had successors, so not failed.

All I was emphasizing is that success and failure are relative terms and as outsiders, we have no way of gauging things aside from what I wrote: were there games and was there a successor system with games. The rest is just so much talk. Imho, yadda yadda...
 
Nov 13, 2011
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So software is down year-on-year software? I know digital is eating into retail more and more, but it is still is somewhat worrying seeing how we just had such a strong next gen hardware launch.

We could potentially see a generation where hardware does well but retail games do poorly -not ideal of the devs and publishers. I know we are in early stages yet, but if the dev costs keep going up and the sales go down, it will be a tough spot for EAs and Activisions of this world.

I am sure Nintendo's situation affects this a lot though, and I bet the year-on-year handheld software sales are not that cheerful.
This is a particularly tough year/year comparison. Last year had Bioshock Infinite, Tomb Raider, Gears of War: Judgement and God of War: Ascension, all selling 600K+. There was a strong 3DS release in Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon. Less blockbusters, and excluding Titanfall, smaller blockbusters.

And even without that, there were about twice as many new releases last March - that's probably the primary culprit.
 

jcm

Member
Dec 8, 2008
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From my perspective, as a consumer, yes. Both systems had games and both systems had successors, so not failed.

All I was emphasizing is that success and failure are relative terms and as outsiders, we have no way of gauging things aside from what I wrote: were there games and was there a successor system with games. The rest is just so much talk. Imho, yadda yadda...
That's a really weird definition for failure. If someone is taking a marksmanship test, and doesn't hit a single target, we don't say he didn't fail because he avoided shooting himself in the head.