The UFC 146 main event on 5/26 in Las Vegas is on hold for another two weeks, until the Nevada State Athletic Commission makes its official ruling on Alistair Overeem, who failed a test for having artificial testosterone in his system during a random test on 3/27.
Dana White has said two things this past week. The first was that the Cain Velasquez vs. Frank Mir fight will not be changed, meaning the two most obvious replacements for Overeem to get a shot at heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos are out the window. The other is that, obviously, somebody will be fighting Junior Dos Santos for the heavyweight title.
It is widely expected that Overeems camp will attempt to make the defense that he was legally prescribed testosterone replacement therapy, and since he was not licensed yet by Nevada since his prior license expired on 12/31, he was under no obligation to inform them of it until such time as he would be licensed. Of course, bringing that up for the first time only after the failed test would raise some eyebrows, particularly when the stipulations of his last license was that he would be tested at least twice randomly over the first six months of this year out of competition.
What also hurts him is that in November, when he took the blood test instead of the urine test by accident, it showed his testosterone levels were normal, not high, not low, and not needing any kind of replacement therapy. While you hear people close to the situation say this is going to work and its a done deal, I heard all this with Chael Sonnen, how he was going to claim he needed testosterone replacement, but there are specific steps you need to go through to be approved in the major states, and its not simply get a note from a doctor and youre free and clear. Only three fighters, Dan Henderson, Todd Duffee and Shane Roller have ever been approved in Nevada. Only one, Henderson, has ever been approved in California. Only two have ever been approved in Ohio. Keith Kizer, the Executive Director of the Nevada State Athletic Commission has said they wont accept a testosterone use exemption from a fighter who damaged his endocrine system, thus is producing low levels of testosterone naturally and needs help, if the belief the damage was caused by previous steroid use.
If its not Overeem, it would now appear to come down to Mark Hunt (there is a twitter campaign to get Hunt the title shot which would be unfortunate because its pretty obvious of all the opponents, he or Werdum would draw the worst, well more likely Mir or Velasquez would draw the best and the other three would draw at an equal level, but people on key Internet MMA message boards have tried to start a campaign and flood Whites twitter to make it appear hes the most popular choice), Fabricio Werdum (scheduled for the 6/16 show in Brazil and he did look great beating Roy Nelson, but didnt look good in losing via decision to Overeem in his prior fight) or Dan Henderson (who has said hed accept it, but I dont like the idea because of the size difference.
All fights have intrigue. Hunt only has an 8-7 career record and had lost six fights in a row from 2006 to 2010, including being submitted in 63 seconds in his UFC debut with Sean McCorkle. Now 38, he does hit hard and has a good chin, or at least had one because at his age, that may no longer be the case, so presents an interesting contrast to Dos Santos, who relies on his boxing as his prime weapon. But his ground game is deficient and aside from an impressive performance against an aging and injured Cheick Kongo on 2/26 in Saitama, Japan, his other UFC wins were sloppy slobber knocker style wins over journeyman Chris Tutscherer and Ben Rothwell. Its almost ridiculous he would get a title shot ahead of Velasquez or Mir.
Werdum, 34, is 15-5-1, with one of those losses being via knockout in 2008 against Dos Santos in just 1:21. He at least looked the part of a top contender with his most impressive striking performance of his career in beating Nelson via decision on 2/4 in Las Vegas, and does have a quick submission win over Fedor Emelianenko.
Henderson, 41, has only fought once as a heavyweight, beating Emelianenko by a first round stoppage from punches. Hes the biggest name and would draw the best of the three names, but hes not a heavyweight, and even though very popular, is not a top draw either, just the best of the three. When his name came up this past week, he said he was up for the challenge. Right now hes waiting for a shot at the winner of Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans, and thats a better match for both he and the company, so I just dont see it being him.
According to those close to the situation, Dos Santos has been very frustrated, given that hes in camp and has gotten no indication who his opponent will be. There is an understanding about nothing official until the hearing, but he feels that he should at least be told the backup plan, given that you couldnt have two more different style of fighters than Hunt and Werdum, and thus, since the betting is on Overeem not being licensed, hes in camp and completely in the dark with what he should be focusing on.
An Observer poll of the candidates for the match saw 35% favor Mir, 24% favored Velasquez, 18% favored Hunt, 17% favored Henderson and only 5% favored Werdum.
Id think it should be Mir based on who would be ranked the highest and is coming off a win, but there are always reasons behind the scene that in this case play into the decision making here. The one with the best chance of winning and best fighter out of the bunch is probably Velasquez. But the problem is the Dos Santos vs. Velasqeuz fight ended so quickly it would be difficult to book a rematch without Velasquez getting at least one high profile win. And the winner of this fight will have earned what is currently planned to be the next title fight, likely in the fall.
The Nevada State Athletic Commission ordered a hearing on 4/24 for Overeem, who has not responded to the commission as of press time nor said anything publicly since his test result came in last week. UFC will present all relevant forms and such to allow him to apply for a license, although I dont see how Nevada can possibly license him.
Overeem hasnt requested for his B sample to be tested yet, although sources close to his camp over this past weekend had brought up asking to test the B sample with the hope it comes in at less than 6-1, in which case hed be free and clear to get licensed and fight.
The first sample was 14-1 (which means he almost had to have taken a shot of testosterone just a few days before the test) and when you pee in the cup, they split your urine into two canisters, one becomes the A and the other the B so its from the same sample but rarely is going to yield different results. Plus, a second failed test will bring only more negative publicity. There have been times when the samples yield different results, but they are rare. If Overeem tested at 7-1 and not 14-1, the chances would be a lot better.
If Overeem goes for a license and is turned down, he could not request another license until April 24, 2013. While he would not be technically suspended, most states would not allow him to fight until he got licensed first in Nevada (which, quite frankly, is another loophole that needs to be closed because if you have a fight signed and fail a test, you should be suspended and be on the disqualified list throughout North America for the nine months or one year that is the norm for a failed test). Some states may not care like Texas as we saw with Chael Sonnen and Josh Barnett who were both allowed to fight in Texas without getting cleared in California in each case, the state of their original infraction.
The problem is at this point, nobody is going to believe hes clean and if hes licensed and wins the title, there will be a very negative shadow over the entire sport, from the regulators to UFC to the sport itself. I grant you if that were to happen, its hardly like there havent been world champions who were on all kinds of stuff before. But its a public image thing.
