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Community Season 3 |OT| Six Seasons and a Movie... feels Goodman!

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N

Nappuccino

Member
Complex Shadow said:
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23.


Really though, I think the odds are (marginally) on the show's side.

Whitney will probably fail- but if it doesn't, then that opens a potential comedy block on wed's that NBC will need to fill up with shows. So that really is a win-win.
I think 30 Rock will see similar ratings at the 8pm slot (maybe marginally better)
I don't see any other show they get really making a huge impact.
 
G

G0523

Member
Nappuccino said:
23.


Really though, I think the odds are (marginally) on the show's side.

Whitney will probably fail- but if it doesn't, then that opens a potential comedy block on wed's that NBC will need to fill up with shows. So that really is a win-win.
I think 30 Rock will see similar ratings at the 8pm slot (maybe marginally better)
I don't see any other show they get really making a huge impact.
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You do make a good point. 8pm Thursday BELONGS to The Big Bang Theory, much as we hate to admit it. It wins EVERY week in the total audience AND the 18-34 demographic. Any other show that goes up against it is asking for trouble. For NBC to cancel Community would not be a great move, but once they see that 30 Rock won't do well in that slot either, hopefully they'll consider keeping it around for just one more year. Plus the show is just one year away from syndication! Sony wants that syndication money!

Also, yet another thing that we hate to admit, Whitney is doing well...for some stupid reason. NBC (or any network for that matter) don't care about quality; they care about quantity.
 
N

Nappuccino

Member
G0523 said:
Also, yet another thing that we hate to admit, Whitney is doing well...for some stupid reason. NBC (or any network for that matter) don't care about quality; they care about quantity.
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Whitney isn't really doing that well even with a lead in from the office.

It did a 1.9 last week. Down 11% from the week before.
 
I

_Isaac

Member
G0523 said:
You do make a good point. 8pm Thursday BELONGS to The Big Bang Theory, much as we hate to admit it. It wins EVERY week in the total audience AND the 18-34 demographic. Any other show that goes up against it is asking for trouble. For NBC to cancel Community would not be a great move, but once they see that 30 Rock won't do well in that slot either, hopefully they'll consider keeping it around for just one more year. Plus the show is just one year away from syndication! Sony wants that syndication money!

Also, yet another thing that we hate to admit, Whitney is doing well...for some stupid reason. NBC (or any network for that matter) don't care about quality; they care about quantity.
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Why would they have to keep it around one more year for syndication?
 
N

Nappuccino

Member
_Isaac said:
That's a rule or tradition?
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Well, the more unique episodes = less repeats = more people tuning in to see "new" (or at least comparatively fresh) episodes.

The more episodes you have the more enticing it is to use that show in syndication.

edit: I'm sure there's more to it than that, but that seems like the most logical explanation to me.
 
I

_Isaac

Member
Nappuccino said:
Well, the more unique episodes = less repeats = more people tuning in to see "new" (or at least comparatively fresh) episodes.

The more episodes you have the more enticing it is to use that show in syndication.

edit: I'm sure there's more to it than that, but that seems like the most logical explanation to me.
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How do you know they typically need 82 or more episodes? How did you come across that number specifically?
 
J

Jasoco

Banned
88 would be 4 full 22 episode seasons. So let's hope we get a fourth complete season and Dan Harmon gets big syndication checks for the rest of his life because I bet those things are super big. Like three figures sometimes.

When we get the last episode this season there'll be 71 episodes. We'll still need at least 17 more.

I really want Syndication so I can turn on the TV and see Community for once instead of reruns of Family Guy.
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
I don't think there's any particular magic number. People used to say 100 episodes. The threshold seems to be lower now, though.
 
F

fisheyes

Member
I really don't understand the whole syndication stuff at all. If Community, or whatever show, is struggling to rate well enough when broadcasting completely new episodes on network television, then why would the various other networks even want it? A cable channel getting the rights to show the Office, Big Bang Theory, any popular show like that I get... but paying chunks of money to broadcast a show that has been proven to not win ratings doesn't seem to make sense to me. This isn't specific to Community either, I know that low rating shows like that often mentioned Til Death show have all made it successfully to syndication, but the whole thing just confuses me.
 
B

big ander

Member
Nappuccino said:
Well, to be clear, I never said this was a likely possibility. Just that it was a possibility. I mean who knows what netflix is planning on doing.

Also, as far as AD goes- it is hard to say how that will pan out, bringing a series that is 6 years cancelled back in a structure that does not play the the shows ensemble strengths doesn't seem like a brilliant idea. And only 10 episodes, so it would be an investment that has to pay off immediately instead of being allowed to gain viewers over a season or two.

Not to mention that, as far as I know, AD isn't shown in syndication (except on IFC sometimes? I dunno) so who knows what kind of actual ratings the show would be getting. It is hard to compare a dead show with no ratings to a living (albeit struggling one) with ratings.

AD is a big risk. Community would be a big risk, but it would be a risk that still has the writers and actors in their groove. Both have obvious advantages and disadvantages.

Not to mention, how is Netflix going to figure out if they make money from AD?

Only if subscribers rise? they have a shitload of subscribers already, how many more could AD garner for them?
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You did though, you said you could easily see it.

I don't believe it's in syndication at all, which is why, like I said, ratings aren't the metric Netflix is using. They're going by dvd sales over 5 or so years, mostly. Which are high for AD. With Community, right now the only metric is Nielsen. Where its ratings blow chunks. Therefore, it wouldn't be smart.

The way I see it, Community has all of the disadvantages of AD plus more and without several of the advantages.

And Netflix, I'm guessing, looks at view counts in addition to number of subscribers to measure success.

It feels a bit like we're going in circles now, and I'm not trying to assert the last word or anything, but really: it's not happening. It's a technical possibility. But it's not happening.
 
N

Nappuccino

Member
_Isaac said:
But how did YOU arrive at the number 82?
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I don't understand this question. I was going off my memory which I why i said "around 82." Regardless, the fact is that, if they want to have any hope of getting into syndication, they really need to have a 4th season.
 
N

Nappuccino

Member
big ander said:
I don't believe it's in syndication at all, which is why, like I said, ratings aren't the metric Netflix is using. They're going by dvd sales over 5 or so years, mostly. Which are high for AD. With Community, right now the only metric is Nielsen. Where its ratings blow chunks. Therefore, it wouldn't be smart.

And Netflix, I'm guessing, looks at view counts in addition to number of subscribers to measure success.
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I can easily imagine it happening. I'm doing it right now. That doesn't mean I believe that it is even 10% likely to occur in reality.

And Community also has dvd sales to go on. And internet views. Really, the things that Netflix is interested in are things that they can easily get data on if they want to break a deal with Sony/NBC over Community.

Also, how does view counts lead to profit for Netflix? I'm guessing the more views they get, the more the company that owns the material will charge for them to keep it when licensing time comes around again. Which leads to a potential loss because of a popular item. I mean, this is a genuine question- unless Netflix gets more subscribers the best they can do is hope to keep the ones they have. And either way, how would they know that one specific show caused either of those things to happen? Even if a new member only watches AD that doesn't necessarily correlate to them getting Netflix because of AD.
 
I

_Isaac

Member
Nappuccino said:
I don't understand this question. I was going off my memory which I why i said "around 82." Regardless, the fact is that, if they want to have any hope of getting into syndication, they really need to have a 4th season.
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I was just wondering how a normal person like you could've arrived at such a random number.
Anyway, yeah it'd be nice if they held on for one more season for this syndication stuff. I'd be fine with it being the last season. The show is so long!
 
B

big ander

Member
Nappuccino said:
I can easily imagine it happening. I'm doing it right now. That doesn't mean I believe that it is even 10% likely to occur in reality.

And Community also has dvd sales to go on. And internet views. Really, the things that Netflix is interested in are things that they can easily get data on if they want to break a deal with Sony/NBC over Community.

Also, how does view counts lead to profit for Netflix? I'm guessing the more views they get, the more the company that owns the material will charge for them to keep it when licensing time comes around again. Which leads to a potential loss because of a popular item. I mean, this is a genuine question- unless Netflix gets more subscribers the best they can do is hope to keep the ones they have. And either way, how would they know that one specific show caused either of those things to happen? Even if a new member only watches AD that doesn't necessarily correlate to them getting Netflix because of AD.
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You...you misunderstand the phrase that you yourself keep using. "I can imagine it" in popular use is not literal. I can imagine a purple vortex materializing out of the fifth dimension and into my room, halting the movement in all of my molecules somehow giving me the ability to defy gravity so that I can fly onto my roof and find Topher Grace and 1980's Holly Hunter waiting there for me with a bottle of whiskey and a harmonica with the proposition to throw a bazooka party in the backyard.

The way it's used in conversation like this, or what what you said ("I can also easily see") suggests likeliness. And that was definitely what you meant at the beginning.

Community has under 2 years of DVD sales to go on. It's not the same as AD.

Netflix is not just interested in stuff they can get data on. They're interested in stuff that should be profitable.

I only suggested view count as a metric. I don't know what they actually do. But if they don't have some sort of system that correlates subscriptions and view count, I'll be extremely surprised. That wouldn't be incredibly hard to do.
 
N

Nappuccino

Member
big ander said:
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My point was that you're reading into what I said. I know the show doesn't stand a good chance of being recovered by NBC or Netflix. That still doesn't change the fact that I can easily see (or imagine, you can choose) the show being renewed. I think a fair amount of us can.

But, I don't think anyone here is going to bet on the shows return just yet.

But Netflix is a wildcard. We don't know what they're going to do because we have nothing to back up any assertions we make. Hence why i can easily see them picking up community as a part of this experiment.

If they grab community I won't be surprised. If they don't grab community I also won't be surprised. See what I mean?

And I'm sure that Netflix monitors each accounts viewing habits. But that still doesn't mean they could dub any of their shows successful. They're just adding more things for people with netflix accounts to watch which means they're likely keep their accounts for longer. But that is something incredibly hard to prove when even people who don't use their Netflix accounts keep their accounts because "well, i might use it next month." It will be difficult to find any meaningful metric of success.
 
M

Medalion

Banned
ezekial45 said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcm-OlcLe9o (starts at 2:28)

He was talking about the chance of it getting in a cancellation last year. He was joking, but it's kinda worrisome how it looks like it could happen. :(

"By the way, don't resuscitate if it happens [on cancellation]. That's my living will. Let it go."
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They've been worried about cancellation since day one man, it's only till recently it has gotten serious enough and this move has come about with the hiatus

Though oddly enough by living on the edge all the time, I think the cast and crew have gotten used to it and learned to relax
 
J

Jasoco

Banned
I think we can all agree, whether Community ends this season or next, that the last scene in the last episode needs to have everyone drink Hemlock and fall to the floor while a laugh track plays. Even if it's an Abed fantasy. It would be the greatest thing ever and the best fan service/callback the show has ever done.
 
I

Incendiary

Banned
Nappuccino said:
Whitney isn't really doing that well even with a lead in from the office.

It did a 1.9 last week. Down 11% from the week before.
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I'd really like to see how Community would have done in a post-Office time slot. Considering it's pulled decent ratings (for NBC) in the Thursday death slot against Big Bang Theory for the past year and a half, it would have been interesting to see how well it would have done without it being the start-up to the night. Both Outsourced and Whitney started behind Office with higher ratings than Community, but both dipped below Community (or, in Whitney's case, almost even with it now).

It's too late now to put it behind the Office, though, which is sad.
 
N

Nappuccino

Member
Jasoco said:
I think we can all agree, whether Community ends this season or next, that the last scene in the last episode needs to have everyone drink Hemlock and fall to the floor while a laugh track plays. Even if it's an Abed fantasy. It would be the greatest thing ever and the best fan service/callback the show has ever done.
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That is how Cougar Town needs to end. Not community
 
B

big ander

Member
Nappuccino said:
My point was that you're reading into what I said. I know the show doesn't stand a good chance of being recovered by NBC or Netflix. That still doesn't change the fact that I can easily see (or imagine, you can choose) the show being renewed. I think a fair amount of us can.

But, I don't think anyone here is going to bet on the shows return just yet.

But Netflix is a wildcard. We don't know what they're going to do because we have nothing to back up any assertions we make. Hence why i can easily see them picking up community as a part of this experiment.

If they grab community I won't be surprised. If they don't grab community I also won't be surprised. See what I mean?

And I'm sure that Netflix monitors each accounts viewing habits. But that still doesn't mean they could dub any of their shows successful. They're just adding more things for people with netflix accounts to watch which means they're likely keep their accounts for longer. But that is something incredibly hard to prove when even people who don't use their Netflix accounts keep their accounts because "well, i might use it next month." It will be difficult to find any meaningful metric of success.
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See here's where we should probably stop because I covered both of the things you said in my previous post. 1) The conversational meaning of it's easy to imagine 2) netflix measuring statistics (you know people have also thought of the situations you've thought of and have likely come up with ways to account for them, right?)
 
N

Nappuccino

Member
big ander said:
See here's where we should probably stop because I covered both of the things you said in my previous post. 1) The conversational meaning of it's easy to imagine 2) netflix measuring statistics (you know people have also thought of the situations you've thought of and have likely come up with ways to account for them, right?)
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I was done with that last post, but things like "they probably have that covered" doesn't' really answer my concern, does it?

Also, language is fluid. Just because something is conventional doesn't mean its always used in such a way. I apologize if you took what I said to mean what I didn't, but I didn't mean to imply that I thought netflix picking them up was a sure thing. Merely a probability that seemed more likely today than it did a week ago thanks to the AD announcement.
 
beat

beat

Member
fisheyes said:
I really don't understand the whole syndication stuff at all. If Community, or whatever show, is struggling to rate well enough when broadcasting completely new episodes on network television, then why would the various other networks even want it? A cable channel getting the rights to show the Office, Big Bang Theory, any popular show like that I get... but paying chunks of money to broadcast a show that has been proven to not win ratings doesn't seem to make sense to me. This isn't specific to Community either, I know that low rating shows like that often mentioned Til Death show have all made it successfully to syndication, but the whole thing just confuses me.
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Til Death had catastrophic ratings* and - after Sony basically paid the entire cost of its last season by itself (making it almost free for Fox) - it was picked up for syndication. There's so much need for content among the cable channels and local stations.

* better than Community in its second to last season, way worse in its last season.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
maharg said:
I don't think there's any particular magic number. People used to say 100 episodes. The threshold seems to be lower now, though.
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There is/isn't. You *can* sells shows in syndication at around 88 episodes, but the more episodes = more lucrative sales, even for lower rated shows (see: Supernatural on TNT, The Geroge Lopez Show in broadcast synd).

The current bubble shows at 3 to 4 seasons (Fringe, Cougar Town, Community, The Good Wife) all have fairly little syndication value because of their middling ratings, but they'll at least be worth something of they get to four seasons than nothing at all.

At five seasons and 100ish episodes? Your syndication value increases (even for low-rated shows) but at this point, networks would need to look at their ad revenue from these shows and see if they're worth it. Especially since they've reached a baseline of episode to strip and sell in syndication.
 
M

Medalion

Banned
The show needs to end with Inspector Spacetime being real and taking them from Earth 1 to Earth 2, where they live on as long as the Simpsons is now, but quality hasn't dipped and have a trilogy of movies each better than the last...
 
G

G0523

Member
maharg said:
I don't think there's any particular magic number. People used to say 100 episodes. The threshold seems to be lower now, though.
Click to expand...
It did use to be 100 episodes, but I strongly think that because of the writers' strike from 2007-2008, it's now at 88. I doubt it'll go back up to 100 since there's also now much more competition from cable shows (It's Always Sunny, South Park, Futurama, etc.) though.

Keep in mind when we talk about syndication, we talk about episodes shown on local channels, NOT episodes shown on cable channels. That's completely different. There are practically no rules in cable land when it comes to reruns.
 
N

ncsuDuncan

Member
G0523 said:
It did use to be 100 episodes, but I strongly think that because of the writers' strike from 2007-2008, it's now at 88. I doubt it'll go back up to 100 since there's also now much more competition from cable shows (It's Always Sunny, South Park, Futurama, etc.) though.

Keep in mind when we talk about syndication, we talk about episodes shown on local channels, NOT episodes shown on cable channels. That's completely different. There are practically no rules in cable land when it comes to reruns.
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This.

Jasoco said:
I've seen Arrested Development syndicated and they only had 53 episodes.
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I know Arrested Development was on IFC and G4, but has it been syndicated on any OTA/Local channels?
 
G

gabbo

Member
Medalion said:
The show needs to end with Inspector Spacetime being real and taking them from Earth 1 to Earth 2, where they live on as long as the Simpsons is now, but quality hasn't dipped and have a trilogy of movies each better than the last...
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If they did incorporate that hemlock Cougarton Abbey bit into the show, it would be better to open with it, then move onto the actual finale episode plot (end with IS-T)
23 seasons, Broadway musical, and a face on Rushmore
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
G0523 said:
It did use to be 100 episodes, but I strongly think that because of the writers' strike from 2007-2008, it's now at 88. I doubt it'll go back up to 100 since there's also now much more competition from cable shows (It's Always Sunny, South Park, Futurama, etc.) though.

Keep in mind when we talk about syndication, we talk about episodes shown on local channels, NOT episodes shown on cable channels. That's completely different. There are practically no rules in cable land when it comes to reruns.
Click to expand...

Right, but what other major cable shows are syndicated? Comparatively, very few. And the other issue is that because so many cable shows are tied to the brand of the cable network, it's actually somewhat difficult to syndicate them on broadcast (The Shield is an example of this).
 
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