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[Midas]

It's always interesting to see what they come up with to fit in a little box. I mean, it's not hard to build a powerful PC, just buy the biggest case you can find and just max everything out. But trying to make the best of a specific budget etc and do the best you possible can and come up with technical shortcuts is a totally different thing.

 

[mckmas8808]

It does when the BC and next gen versions are different games in cross generation titles.

Say I played Destiny on 360. My only two options would be locked out of the later DLC, or restart from 0 on another platform.

No generations in a game like that would mean, no need to rebuy the game or all the DLC you own, be able to use your progress on the next device, and still enjoy the updates and new content of the next gen version.

I hope Sony NEVER does this. It's terrible!

 

[butman]

Thank God, I hate this half step trash.

Amen.

 

[mckmas8808]

HBM2 will reach 2TB/s bandwidth using 8x stacks, I don't think you can have any more than 4x on a single package.

HBM3 doubles the bw per stack on a 1024bit bus, so 2x stacks would be 1024GB/s (most likely for a console) and 4x stacks 2048GB/s (very unlikely for a console).

These numbers are from Samsung's HotChips presentation last yr, so well get a confirmation by this August on HBM3.

This is all so interesting.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Unless the PS5 is going to be revolutionary in some way (i.e Wii, etc.) and not just more powerful CPU/GPU, then I feel like this is a mistake and will put them at a disadvantage. Just based on industry trends...time will tell though.

You can't out nintendo nintendo. Let the other consoles do what they do best.

HBM2 supports this bandwidth but PS5 will probably use GDDR6 at around 500GB/s.

I think it would be closer to 800+ GB/s

 

[Yautja_Warrior]

We are not getting 60fps outside a few games. They'll just jack up everything at 30fps.

If you really need 60fps on everything then you get a gaming PC.

Sure there will always be 30fps games but console are becoming more like PC's in design and starting to get pretty powerful too, so if next gen has a strong CPU there's a good chance we will see more games go for 60fps, some developers are wanting stronger CPU's now.

Lots of games are on both PC and console, with the PC version running at 60fps, so if consoles have enough CPU power to run 60fps too, then no reason why developers wouldn't run 60fps on both for next gen.

 

[dr_rus]

This here reads most in line with information that I have been gathering also and makes the most sense. ~16-18TF should be what Sony are targetting and 2019 reveal/2020 launch gives PS4 Pro 3 years on the market. And a potential 10X increase in power from base PS4. Anything pre-2018 doesn't seem feasible.

Speculation hat: Sony leaked information of a potential PS5 to deter people from jumping ship to Xbox/PC. It's crazy the amount of high-level execs name dropping the PS5 this early in the game. I think it's unprecedented. There isn't really anything much Sony can do anyway but sit and wait for AMD to launch their new tech. It's a shame really that the generational progress of consoles is now out of he hands of the platform holders. If only Sony launched the PS3 without a Bluray drive and a year earlier, the whole technological landscape could potentially be a lot different today

Since I was bored I decided to make some completely unscientific projections in Excel:

NV and AMD dots are the peak GFlop/s ratings of their top end cards (I've omitted those gens where there were no top end chips like AMD's Polaris).
MS and Sony dots are peak GFlop/s ratings of 360/XBO/XBX and PS3/4/Pro respectively.

Now this gives us some range to work with, and I'd say that 16-18 TFlops for a console launching in 2020 is highly unlikely - we're looking at ~10 TFlops being the sweet spot in this time frame - twice the throughput of XBX tops. To launch a 16 TFlops console they'll probably have to wait till the end of 2022 - which is kinda confirmed by the PC top end GPUs Flops projection which stays roughly 2,5 times ahead of console GPUs.

 

[Filthy Casual]

Long live generations! I hope for a 2019 release, I've had my PS4 since 2013 that is a long enough gap. Not interested in a half step, especially as I don't have a 4K TV yet.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Since I was bored I decided to make some completely unscientific projections in Excel:

NV and AMD dots are the peak GFlop/s ratings of their top end cards (I've omitted those gens where there were no top end chips like AMD's Polaris).
MS and Sony dots are peak GFlop/s ratings of 360/XBO/XBX and PS3/4/Pro respectively.

Now this gives us some range to work with, and I'd say that 16-18 TFlops for a console launching in 2020 is highly unlikely - we're looking at ~10 TFlops being the sweet spot in this time frame - twice the throughput of XBX tops. To launch a 16 TFlops console they'll probably have to wait till the end of 2022 - which is kinda confirmed by the PC top end GPUs Flops projection which stays roughly 2,5 times ahead of console GPUs.

This is interesting and a fun little exercise... but you're extrapolations for consoles are based on just 4 data points (2 each for Sony and MS - 3 if you include XB360) which are only separated by a period of about 3-4 yrs. Can't really put much stock in the gradients of those curves at all. In fact there's no reason the gradients of the console curves should be any shallower than those of the desktop GPUs; they're based on the same technology afterall (just with stricter silicon and TDP constraints).

Still, my gut tells me 10 to 13TFLOPs for a console launch in 2019/20 should be about possible at similar price points to this gen console's launches.

 

[GermanZepp]

Since I was bored I decided to make some completely unscientific projections in Excel:

NV and AMD dots are the peak GFlop/s ratings of their top end cards (I've omitted those gens where there were no top end chips like AMD's Polaris).
MS and Sony dots are peak GFlop/s ratings of 360/XBO/XBX and PS3/4/Pro respectively.

Now this gives us some range to work with, and I'd say that 16-18 TFlops for a console launching in 2020 is highly unlikely - we're looking at ~10 TFlops being the sweet spot in this time frame - twice the throughput of XBX tops. To launch a 16 TFlops console they'll probably have to wait till the end of 2022 - which is kinda confirmed by the PC top end GPUs Flops projection which stays roughly 2,5 times ahead of console GPUs.

Pretty good graphic dude.

I believe that "IF" we are lucky enough PS5 will be 2x PS4pro power. Somewere between 8tf and 10 tf and perhaps 16gb of ram.

And the backward compatibility PS4 stuff? It must be in, but i don't think Sony will do it.

They maybe let you play the games you bought in PSNOW. Who knows.

 

[mckmas8808]

Pretty good graphic dude.

I believe that "IF" we are lucky enough PS5 will be 2x PS4pro power. Somewere between 8tf and 10 tf and perhaps 16gb of ram.

And the backward compatibility PS4 stuff? It must be in, but i don't think Sony will do it.

They maybe let you play the games you bought in PSNOW. Who knows.

If this is the case, then Sony should just cancel the PS5.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Pretty good graphic dude.

I believe that "IF" we are lucky enough PS5 will be 2x PS4pro power. Somewere between 8tf and 10 tf and perhaps 16gb of ram.

And the backward compatibility PS4 stuff? It must be in, but i don't think Sony will do it.

They maybe let you play the games you bought in PSNOW. Who knows.

I think there will be no excuse for them not to do PS4/Pro BC with PS5. PS1/2 as legacy platforms and PS3 with its architecture are atleast excusable, but if they care anything about their ecosystem and built up advantage, they will keep that in mind when going from one x86 platform to the other

10tflops, 16 to 20GB GDDR6 800+GB/s, Zen architecture with 8cores and 16 threads

 

[GermanZepp]

If this is the case, then Sony should just cancel the PS5.

Just adding, thats a 2020 prediction at $399.

 

[Yautja_Warrior]

If this is the case, then Sony should just cancel the PS5.

Why ? As long as the CPU is good, then that would be a nice jump in power over PS4 / Pro.

 

[GermanZepp]

Why ? As long as the CPU is good, then that would be a nice jump in power over PS4 / Pro.

I think is reasonable too.

 

[Jaccan]

German news site golem.de has an interview online with Shawn Layden where he states that there will definitely be a new generation and not an evolutionary model like with smartphones.

There is even more at the (google translated) link here:

https://translate.google.com/transl...-statt-auf-konsolenevolution-1706-128536.html

Well, no surprise that there will be a Ps5 , after all a Ps5 is just a name.

Also he did not say when, infact he even states it will be some time, so nothing new here

 

[Inuhanyou]

Why ? As long as the CPU is good, then that would be a nice jump in power over PS4 / Pro.

People keep confusing these iterative machines with next generation units, so they are comparing Pro and XBX's GPU's and such to the next machines.

A hypothetical PS5 is not going to have the same function as a Pro or a Scorpio. You would not confuse a high tier PC in early 2013 with the limits of a 7th gen console based on the high settings of its PC ports from those consoles. In the same way Bioshock infinite was not representative of PC at that time, games today are not representative of the more modern components the iterative machines have, CPU's disregarded, and especially not what a hypothetical next generation machine from 2019 would have

 

[Yautja_Warrior]

I think is reasonable too.

That's what I'm expecting fron PS5 anyway, with a Zen 2 CPU.

Anything more powerful will be a bonus but unless components are really cheap, they won't go too over the top to keep the price reasonable.

 

[dr_rus]

This is interesting and a fun little exercise... but you're extrapolations for consoles are based on just 4 data points (2 each for Sony and MS - 3 if you include XB360) which are only separated by a period of about 3-4 yrs. Can't really put much stock in the gradients of those curves at all. In fact there's no reason the gradients of the console curves should be any shallower than those of the desktop GPUs; they're based on the same technology afterall (just with stricter silicon and TDP constraints).

Still, my gut tells me 10 to 13TFLOPs for a console launch in 2019/20 should be about possible at similar price points to this gen console's launches.

It's three points for both MS and Sony actually (otherwise the trendlines wouldn't be curved like that and would just be a straight line) and there is a reason why console curves will fall further and further behind in absolute Flops - console GPUs being roughly 0,4 of top end GPUs in size means that they'll have 0,4 peak Flops which means that the absolute numbers divide will widen.

Then again, as I've said this only gives a very approximate range - you can clearly see that there were more than one outlier in previous years which weren't even close to any of the trend lines.

Still, I'd say that ~17TF console GPU by the end of 2020 is a pipe dream. Consider that a 6TF XBX costing $500 launching this autumn will be about half of top end 2016 GPUs peak math throughput (~12TF). This means that we'll need ~35TF PC top end GPUs in the end of 2019 - and I just don't see this happening. Next year we'll probably hit ~18TF in PC top end and in 2019 we'll be looking at ~27TF - which means that a $400 console launching around end of 2020 will probably be able to hit ~11TF while a $500 one will likely push for 13-14TF at best. So even for a $500 console ~17TF probably won't be possible until 2021.

 

[AmFreak]

I think is reasonable too.

It would be a 40% increase of the One X aka the fastest "this gen" machine.
Or in other words the difference of PS4<>One or Pro <> One X.
3 years after One X.
Truly "next gen".

 

[Yautja_Warrior]

Still, I'd say that ~17TF console GPU by the end of 2020 is a pipe dream. Consider that a 6TF XBX costing $600 launching this autumn will be about half of top end 2016 GPUs peak math throughput (~12TF). This means that we'll need ~35TF PC top end GPUs in the end of 2019 - and I just don't see this happening. Next year we'll probably hit ~18TF in PC top end and in 2019 we'll be looking at ~27TF - which means that a $400 console launching around end of 2020 will probably be able to hit ~11TF while a $500 one will likely push for 13-14TF at best. So even for a $500 console ~17TF probably won't be possible until 2021.

Agreed, 10-11 Tflops seems more likely because keeping price reasonable will be important, as the first next gen consoles won't be a "Premium" product like Xbox One X but a mass market product like PS4 / Xbox One.

Plus that kind of power is around GTX 1080 Ti levels, which would be insanely good in a console and pair that with a decent CPU and next gen should be pretty awesome.

 

[GermanZepp]

It would be a 40% increase of the One X aka the fastest "this gen" machine.
Or in other words the difference of PS4<>One or Pro <> One X.
3 years after One X.
Truly "next gen".

But the comparison is PS4 vs PS5 right? PS4 is 1.8 tf right? So the jump is bigger than that.

 

[AmFreak]

But the comparison is PS4 vs PS5 right? PS4 is 1.8 tf right? So the jump is bigger than that.

Why is the comparison PS4 vs PS5?
If a PS5 launches in 2020 people will compare it with the other stuff that is available aka Pro and One X.
40% from the One X is "why even bother"-territory, people will ask themselves for what they did wait 3 years.
Good luck marketing that as the new next-gen uber-console.

 

[Yautja_Warrior]

Why is the comparison PS4 vs PS5?
If a PS5 launches in 2020 people will compare it with the other stuff that is available aka Pro and One X.
40% from the One X is "why even bother"-territory, people will ask themselves for what they did wait 3 years.
Good luck marketing that as the new next-gen uber-console.

It's not just GPU power though. Newer, more efficient tech like a Zen 2 CPU with higher clock speeds and a Vega or Navi based GPU + more and faster RAM would make a big difference.

The CPU alone would be a big upgrade over the ancient Jaguar CPU tech in current consoles (yes that includes Xbox One X)

Xbox One X has 6 Tflop GPU, 12GB GDDR5 RAM and a 2.3GHz Jaguar CPU (custom but still Jaguar based) but a Zen 2 3GHz CPU, 16GB RAM (GDDR5 or 6 or HBM) and a 10 Tflop GPU (Vega or Navi) would wipe the floor with the X.

 

[Weltall Zero]

Everyone understood that the PS3 is impossible to support with BC but X86 architecture should be supportable without much effort on Sony's part. If they stick with AMD and there's no BC, there will be a massive backlash the likes of which Sony could never have even imagined.

Yes, I'm sure the general public is fully aware of the nuances of microprocessor architecture and what or what isn't possible. Definitely not a few enthusiasts in a forum hilariously projecting.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Why is the comparison PS4 vs PS5?
If a PS5 launches in 2020 people will compare it with the other stuff that is available aka Pro and One X.
40% from the One X is "why even bother"-territory, people will ask themselves for what they did wait 3 years.
Good luck marketing that as the new next-gen uber-console.

Because the PS4 is the baseline, like the PS5 would be the baseline.

Your forgetting that the XB1X and Pro are iterative machines designed to only supplement the already existing baseline. PS5 is creating a new baseline for developers to work from and so the standards shift upwards significantly

What separates console gens from each other in the past? That continues with PS4 to PS5. Its simple stuff and Pro doesn't change that

 

[kyser73]

In think people basing their power projections on the Pro & X1X are using the wrong baseline.

The Slim *is* the PS4. It's the primary platform for Sony. Take Cerny's interview & apply his view on the specs multiplier a generational leap means, and that's roughly where they'll aim for PS5.

Except the memory. I honestly can't see another 8x increase there!

My point tho, is base the spec calculations on the main platform, not the iterative models.

 

[Mr_Antimatter]

Power alone won't even tell the whole story.

I don't expect them to go jaguar level cpus next gen, given the issues they had this gen with them. Instead, I think they will shoot more for a mobile/laptop grade cpu, if they stick with amd, based off Zen with modern radeon stuff. The question will be if they stick with an APU, or go separate cpu/gpu.

Will probably depend on cost. But a ps5/next xbox based off AMD Pinnacle Ridge class apu's would be nice, imho.

 

[AfterTheFall]

I would like backwards compatibility but not if it holds this thing back from being a beast.

 

[Alebrije]

They should call it Project Snake, once revealed.

 

[Inuhanyou]

I would like backwards compatibility but not if it holds this thing back from being a beast.

it will be a 'beast' if we're looking the standards of power levels right now, but at that point whatever they come up with will be midrange hardware, with or without BC. Just as PS4 was.

 

[Herp Derpington]

Because the PS4 is the baseline, like the PS5 would be the baseline.

Your forgetting that the XB1X and Pro are iterative machines designed to only supplement the already existing baseline. PS5 is creating a new baseline for developers to work from and so the standards shift upwards significantly

What separates console gens from each other in the past? That continues with PS4 to PS5. Its simple stuff and Pro doesn't change that

Doesn't matter if they're iterative. They'll be the ones people compare the PS5 and next Xbox to, not the one and ps4. Thr PS4 and Xbox one don't exist in a vacuum. You know this no need to be pedantic about it. If that's the case then I agree a 40% increase in power is firmly in the what's the point category.

 

[LukasTaves]

As i said, BC on PS5 as i imagine it would make "next gen versions" of games irrelevant. as i said it would stop the point of conventional crossgen, allowing devs to continue their work on software from previous gen(PS4/Pro) without throwing it all out because it would still be playable on PS4/Pro and PS5, until they feel ready to exclusively work on a hypothetical PS5 and take full advantage of it.

In this scenario, all of your ecosystem purchases would carry over from PS4/Pro to PS5 including all DLC.

How that scenario would work for a game like destiny, that received DLC and updates pushing it past 360 and PS3?

Or a game like World of Warcraft that received a graphic boost a few years ago increasing the minimum requirements?

Or a game like GTA5, which received way substantial content in gta online once it hit Xbone/Ps4/Pc?

Would they just release a patch removing Ps4 support... For a Ps4 game?

A game being just a game not tied to any hardware allows that. The developer can make the game more demanding and elevate the minimum requirements, but it's a harder sell when the game is a Ps4 game that just so happens to run on Ps5.

What you are proposing is essentially making the platform generation less but calling something else.

The reasons given for forwards compatibility are not enough to compromise developers and software by tying them down to weaker hardware indefinitely, it should only be until they feel ready to move on

PC nor mobile are indefinitely hold back due the weaker hardware, how it would have to be with a console?

If anything not having generations is precisely what give developers freedom to move on when they are ready, because instead of becoming essentially impossible to maintain development of last gen versions (a whole different development platform, reduced audience with the passing of time) makes them drop last gen faster than what they wanted to.

 

[LukasTaves]

I hope Sony NEVER does this. It's terrible!

How is that horrible? Really?

PC has some games that are over 10 years old and still receives updates and content. Would you rather not have it, or have to start over when you buy another console?

 

[BADMAN]

You know I don't see any reason why you couldn't have the ps4 run certain ps5 games. If the software doesn't take full advantage of the ps5 hardware then you should still be able to run it on ps4 at a lower framerate or resolution.

 

[Inuhanyou]

You know I don't see any reason why you couldn't have the ps4 run certain ps5 games. If the software doesn't take full advantage of the ps5 hardware then you should still be able to run it on ps4 at a lower framerate or resolution.

What's the point of PS4 running certain PS5 games and forcing them into that mold when you could just have PS5 run PS4 games until they phase it out

 

[BADMAN]

What's the point of PS4 running certain PS5 games when you could just have PS5 run PS4 games until they phase it out

It gives people the option to not drop $400+ on a new console. A lot of gamers out there have to wait a while to purchase a new console so I figure it would be a decent pro-consumer move. I'm not saying that publishers should prioritize making sure that games work on both consoles but since both ps4 and ps5 are working on similar architecture I see no reason why you can't have some releases come out on both platforms.

 

[MohitParty]

I think every three years, new hardware makes sense for Sony.

PS4 - 2013
PS4 Slim and Pro - 2016
PS4 Pro Slim and PS5 - 2019
PS5 Slim and Pro - 2022

 

[Chobel]

How that scenario would work for a game like destiny, that received DLC and updates pushing it past 360 and PS3?

Or a game like World of Warcraft that received a graphic boost a few years ago increasing the minimum requirements?

Or a game like GTA5, which received way substantial content in gta online once it hit Xbone/Ps4/Pc?

Would they just release a patch removing Ps4 support... For a Ps4 game?

A game being just a game not tied to any hardware allows that. The developer can make the game more demanding and elevate the minimum requirements, but it's a harder sell when the game is a Ps4 game that just so happens to run on Ps5.

What you are proposing is essentially making the platform generation less but calling something else.


PC nor mobile are indefinitely hold back due the weaker hardware, how it would have to be with a console?

If anything not having generations is precisely what give developers freedom to move on when they are ready, because instead of becoming essentially impossible to maintain development of last gen versions (a whole different development platform, reduced audience with the passing of time) makes them drop last gen faster than what they wanted to.

If I'm reading your post right, what you're saying is that generation-less is basically Xbox Play Anywhere or PlayStation's cross buy on all titles. Isn't that up to devs/pubs and has nothing to do with platforms holders?

Also most people here associate generation with: newer hardware having exclusive games (due to technical limitations of old hardware), in other words no forced forward compatibility.

 

[RPGamer92]

2020 can't get here soon enough

Spoiler

... for this and to get Trump out of office.

 

[AstroNut325]

I think every three years, new hardware makes sense for Sony.

PS4 - 2013
PS4 Slim and Pro - 2016
PS4 Pro Slim and PS5 - 2019
PS5 Slim and Pro - 2022

This sounds perfect to me. I hope it's something like this.

 

[Van Bur3n]

It better be BC with PS4 games though.

It better, otherwise it's already a failure.

 

[thelastword]

PS5

November 2020

CPU : Zen 3, 32 cores, 64 threads @5Ghz

GPU : Navi 7nm+, 30TF FP32, 60TF FP16, FP64 rendering, 64GB HBM3

Memory : 64GB RAM, -12GB for the OS

Storage : 2TB internal, 1TB SSD to be used as cache for graphics apps and other OS features.

Network :10 GBE, Wireless AC: Wave 2

Sound : Support for DTS:X and DOLBY ATMOS

 

[Inuhanyou]

It gives people the option to not drop $400+ on a new console. A lot of gamers out there have to wait a while to purchase a new console so I figure it would be a decent pro-consumer move. I'm not saying that publishers should prioritize making sure that games work on both consoles but since both ps4 and ps5 are working on similar architecture I see no reason why you can't have some releases come out on both platforms.

BC does that as well, as devs can continue working on PS4 games and PS5 can still play them just fine.

They don't need separate console SKU's to do that.

PS5 exclusive titles should be games that take advantage of that CPU, RAM and GPU

PS5

November 2020

CPU : Zen 3, 32 cores, 64 threads @5Ghz

GPU : Navi 7nm+, 30TF FP32, 60TF FP16, FP64 rendering, 64GB HBM3

Memory : 64GB RAM, -12GB for the OS

Storage : 2TB internal, 1TB SSD to be used as cache for graphics apps and other OS features.

Network :10 GBE, Wireless AC: Wave 2

Sound : Support for DTS:X and DOLBY ATMOS

WHat have you had to drink

 

[AmyS]

It's always interesting to see what they come up with to fit in a little box. I mean, it's not hard to build a powerful PC, just buy the biggest case you can find and just max everything out. But trying to make the best of a specific budget etc and do the best you possible can and come up with technical shortcuts is a totally different thing.

For the last week or so, ever since Xbox One X was revealed with its roughly Xbox One S size casing, I have been wondering what Microsoft could achieve with a case the same size as the original Xbox One, using the same methods as Xbox One X, but with the tech that's coming in the next 3 years. Well not just Microsoft but Sony too. Something the size of the original Xbox One would allow for even more cooling, heat dissipation, etc

PS5

November 2020

CPU : Zen 3, 32 cores, 64 threads @5Ghz

GPU : Navi 7nm+, 30TF FP32, 60TF FP16, FP64 rendering, 64GB HBM3

Memory : 64GB RAM, -12GB for the OS

Storage : 2TB internal, 1TB SSD to be used as cache for graphics apps and other OS features.

Network :10 GBE, Wireless AC: Wave 2

Sound : Support for DTS:X and DOLBY ATMOS

As long as the 64 GB HBM3 has 2+ TB/s bandwidth, I'm sold on that PS5 for Eight Hundred Ninety Nine Dollars!

Best part? No need for a PS5 Pro at all and will last to 2030!

Bwuhahahaha.

 

[Kambing]

I'll take a stab:

CPU: Zen 2 or 3, 8-12 cores, 3.0-3.5 ghz

GPU: 24-32GB GDDR6, 12-14TF, 600-900GB/s

Storage: 1TB SSHD, 32GB NAND Flash

Price: $399-449

Year: Fall 2020

 

[Insane Metal]

Yes please.

Edit:

I'll take a stab:

CPU: Zen 2 or 3, 8-12 cores, 3.0-3.5 ghz

GPU: 24-32GB GDDR6, 12-14TF, 600-900GB/s

Storage: 1TB SSHD, 32GB NAND Flash

Price: $399-449

Year: Fall 2020

LOL

 

[thelastword]

I hope we revisit this thread when the new console specs are announced...

 

[Shpeshal Nick]

Maybe we can finally lock up the crazies that think there won't be a next gen reset.

If it doesn't play PS4 games there'll be trouble.

 

[ArtHands]

real PS5 in this case means no backward compatible and you can't carry your digital PS4 purchase over to PS5?

Does this mean this is a half step specs over PS4Pro (essentially a gen ahead of PS4) or a full gen upgrade over PS4Pro?