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MLB - Official 2012 Postseason Thread of More Wild Cards and Higher Champagne Budgets

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
Jeter UZR by Gold glove year
2010 -4.7 (It really should have been Alexei Ramirez that year)
2009 6.4
2006 -7.3 (-8.7 range)
2005 -14.9 (-18.8 range)
2004 -.7

*scratches head*
if a -9.8 UZR makes cabrera "certifiably awful" how did Jeter win a GG in 2005? the yankee effect?

jeter is flashy in the field. he makes that cool jump play. also apparently from what I read going to his right (our left) he is about in line with Brendan Ryan who is considered the best SS (although Andrelton Simmons will soon take that crown). Jeter's difficulty is going up the middle. I assume he positions himself more toward third base and because of his diminishing range he can't get to the balls up the middle as much. forgot where I read it though.

the gg award is more about hitting anyway, seems like if you hit then you can win it. if you don't then no such luck.. then again the guys that can really field can't get enough playing time. Like Peter Bourjos on the Angels.
 

Malo

Banned
jeter is flashy in the field. he makes that cool jump play. also apparently from what I read going to his right (our left) he is about in line with Brendan Ryan who is considered the best SS (although Anderlton Simmons will soon take that crown). Jeter's difficulty is going up the middle. I assume he positions himself more toward third base and because of his diminishing range he can't get to the balls up the middle as much. forgot where I read it though.

the gg award is more about hitting anyway, seems like if you hit then you can win it. if you don't then no such luck.. then again the guys that can really field can't get enough playing time.
Yeah, I remember hearing it on a podcast. I think it was a fangraphs or baseball today podcast.
 
Postseason predictions!

Wild Card games
AL: Orioles beat Rangers
NL: Braves beat Cardinals

Division Series games
AL: A's beat Tigers; O's beat Yankees
NL: Reds beat Giants; Braves beat Nationals

Championship Series games
AL: O's beat A's
NL: Reds beat Braves

World Series
Orioles beat Reds
 

zulux21

Member
the gg award is more about hitting anyway, seems like if you hit then you can win it. if you don't then no such luck.. then again the guys that can really field can't get enough playing time. Like Peter Bourjos on the Angels.

I suppose that is true as very few great defenders are also good hitters... plus your average fan doesn't like people who can't hit for average.
 

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
Postseason predictions!
this:

ybZtQ.jpg


and pain and suffering for opposing fans.
I suppose that is true as very few great defenders are also good hitters... plus your average fan doesn't like people who can't hit for average.
from what I hear, there are some amazing fielders in the minors that can't hit at all. I would love to see the best of the best at fielding.
 
this:

ybZtQ.jpg


and pain and suffering for opposing fans.

I really hope the Chipper Jones storyline guides them to win it. I'm still convinced they would have won it all in 2010 if Chipper and Prado were able to play and Wagner didn't tear his oblique in Game 2.
 

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
I really hope the Chipper Jones storyline guides them to win it. I'm still convinced they would have won it all in 2010 if Chipper and Prado were able to play.
yeah I know, that team was injured to hell and back. also ahem...giants cheated. /booooooooo

go away corran.
 

zulux21

Member
from what I hear, there are some amazing fielders in the minors that can hit at all. I would love to see the best of the best at fielding.

I am hoping that next season goes more like the first 99 games of this season fielding wise for the white sox for the whole season... It was actually a lot of fun watching my fielders play good defense, getting to balls, and hitting cut off men unfortunately games 100-162 they played far more like the white sox of the past when it came to fielding.

In general it was nice to watch a decent fielding team though, it's quite under rated.
 

TheNatural

My Member!
Just wanted to say fuck you to all the preseason haters and pundits that had the Reds finishing third, at best, in division. Somehow losing Fielder and Pujols and a few other pieces was just supposed to be replaced with magic or something. Dunno how we'll do in the playoffs, I fucking HATE best of 5 deciding your fate, but its better than best of 1 like some unfortunate previous wild card teams have to go through.
 

zulux21

Member
Just wanted to say fuck you to all the preseason haters and pundits that had the Reds finishing third, at best, in division. Somehow losing Fielder and Pujols and a few other pieces was just supposed to be replaced with magic or something. Dunno how we'll do in the playoffs, I fucking HATE best of 5 deciding your fate, but its better than best of 1 like some unfortunate previous wild card teams have to go through.

to be fair I would argue that the brewers pretty much replaced Fielder with Aramis Ramírez as they both had pretty close numbers/worth

If I recall right though I picked the reds to win the NL central though :p
 
to be fair that game isn't nearly as badly called as that video makes it out to be. The marker on the screen is where the catcher catches the ball not where it crossed the plate so they were much closer then the marker is showing, but there were a number of bad calls in there regardless :p

Yeah, it's a weird angle.
 
Is Dontrelle still with Arizona/in baseball? Jesus, I remember endless threads on Yankee boards begging Cashman to trade the farm for him.

Nope.

He was signed by the Phillies in the offseason to a Major League deal (lol) but they cut him in spring training. The Orioles signed him to a minor league deal and started the season in AAA. He abandoned the team at the end of April after getting shelled in three starts and then announced his retirement.

What's amazing is that he's still only 30 years old. I can't believe he flamed out so quickly.
 
Just wanted to say fuck you to all the preseason haters and pundits that had the Reds finishing third, at best, in division. Somehow losing Fielder and Pujols and a few other pieces was just supposed to be replaced with magic or something. Dunno how we'll do in the playoffs, I fucking HATE best of 5 deciding your fate, but its better than best of 1 like some unfortunate previous wild card teams have to go through.
Brewers missed the playoffs because of the backend of their bullpen. A-Ram approximated Fielder's production and I'm guessing the cost of Prince re-signing would have prevented the signing of A-Ram. Budgets and all.

Cardinals limped into the playoffs because of bullpen issues and a rookie manager. Beltran was a tick less productive than Pujols and letting Albert walk allowed them to have Furcal for a good part of the season at SS instead of a replacement player like Descalso or Kozma. Neither Beltran nor Furcal would've been in the Cards budget if they spent 20+ million on Pujols.

Maybe the season for both teams turns out differently if they kept their 1B from leaving. Maybe not. But you can't say either team failed directly because Fielder/Pujols left. Both teams scored more runs in 2012 than 2011 and I think overall offensive production dropped across the league.
 
Nope.

He was signed by the Phillies in the offseason to a Major League deal (lol) but they cut him in spring training. The Orioles signed him to a minor league deal and started the season in AAA. He abandoned the team at the end of April after getting shelled in three starts and then announced his retirement.

What's amazing is that he's still only 30 years old. I can't believe he flamed out so quickly.

Goddamn, I don't even remember him retiring. Dude was ridiculous in his hey-day. Wasn't it his delivery that ended up doing him in?
 

rekameohs

Banned
Nope.

He was signed by the Phillies in the offseason to a Major League deal (lol) but they cut him in spring training. The Orioles signed him to a minor league deal and started the season in AAA. He abandoned the team at the end of April after getting shelled in three starts and then announced his retirement.

What's amazing is that he's still only 30 years old. I can't believe he flamed out so quickly.

Related story.

Brandon Webb, aka Mr. 2nd Rookie of the Year after Willis in 2003, who also had a career cut way short, was supposed to pitch in an alumni Dbacks game a few weeks ago.

He of course turned it down because of his nagging injury problems, which just so happen to creep up whenever he needs to pitch. Dude became such a pussy - can't even pitch 10 pitches in a joke game. I've heard the team doctors have said something similar about his attitude. He's just not motivated to play again at all. "I won my Cy Young, got mega-paid. Fuck y'all bitches" I believe the quote was.
 

cashman

Banned
Related story.

Brandon Webb, aka Mr. 2nd Rookie of the Year after Willis in 2003, who also had a career cut way short, was supposed to pitch in an alumni Dbacks game a few weeks ago.

He of course turned it down because of his nagging injury problems, which just so happen to creep up whenever he needs to pitch. Dude became such a pussy - can't even pitch 10 pitches in a joke game. I've heard the team doctors have said something similar about his attitude. He's just not motivated to play again at all. "I won my Cy Young, got mega-paid. Fuck y'all bitches" I believe the quote was.

The Rangers paid him like 3 million dollars to go through rehab last year.
 

zulux21

Member
Goddamn, I don't even remember him retiring. Dude was ridiculous in his hey-day. Wasn't it his delivery that ended up doing him in?
09bDA.jpg

lMOLX.jpg

I'd wager it was a combo of his delivery and the 20-30 pounds that I am pretty sure he put on due to lack of proper off season training if I recall correctly from the reports when the tigers were bitching about him.
 

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
bored so I was looking at all time UZR numbers. (goes back to 2002). Minimum 4000 innings. (3 years of 162 gms, 9 inning play is about 4300). DRS doesn't have easily accessible numbers averaged out for one year of play, they are just cumulative I believe so i'll just look at UZR/150.

UZR/150 (ultimate zone rate per 150 games): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, per 150 defensive games.

Shortstop

(UZR/150)

Adam Everett 15.0
Brendan Ryan 12.4
J.J. Hardy 10.9

also interesting. Jeter has always faired well in Error Runs

(Error Runs (ErrR) – Does the player commit more or fewer errors compared with a league-average player at their position?).

Always positive numbers. He is below average turning the DP though and what really kills him is his range. Those are not very surprising conclusions though. Jeter is very smooth out in the field, excellent hands.

Second Base:

Chase Utley 13.6
Placido Polanco 10.5
Dustin Pedroia 9.8

Third Base:

Adrian Beltre 15.3
Evan Longoria and Pedro Feliz 14.9
Scott Rolen 14.2

First Base:

Doug Mientkiewicz 11.4
Travis Lee 9.2
Kevin Youkilis 7.4

even at age 33-36 (2002-2005) John Olerud is still close to the top at 6.3 UZR/150. (hall of famer)

Left Field:

Carl Crawford 13.0
Alfonso Soriano 12.9 (yes you read that right)
Moises Alou 8.5

DRS does not like Alfonso in LF so this could be a case of UZR having problems in Wrigley. UZR is much more accurate in the infield than the outfield because of the differences between all of the fields. DRS also does not agree with Alou, who also played for the cubs from 2002-2004 and the giants and mets after.

Right Field:

Ichiro Suzuki: 11.6
Austin Kearns: 11.3
Alex Rios: 10.2

Center Field:

Andruw Jones 19.0
Carlos Gomez 15.0
Michael Bourn 10.7

Even fat Andruw was godly. imagine if there were numbers back before 2002.

Anyway conclusion:

Mbwm4.jpg
 
Teams' top players based on fWAR.

Code:
Angels       - Mike Trout (10.3)
Brewers      - Ryan Braun (8.1)
Giants       - Buster Posey (8.1)
Mets         - David Wright (7.8)
Pirates      - Andrew McCutchen (7.5)
Tigers       - Miguel Cabrera (7.3)
Yankees      - Robinson Cano (7.3)
Padres       - Chase Headley (7.2)
Cardinals    - Yadier Molina (6.6)
Braves       - Jason Heyward (6.5)
Rangers      - Adrian Beltre (6.3)
Diamondbacks - Aaron Hill (6.3)
Marlins      - Giancarlo Stanton (6.0)
Reds         - Joey Votto (6.0)
Rays         - Ben Zobrist (5.9)
Royals       - Alex Gordon (5.6)
Phillies     - Carlos Ruiz (5.4)
Nationals    - Ian Desmond (5.1)
Twins        - Joe Mauer (5.0)
Orioles      - Adam Jones (4.6)
Athletics    - Josh Reddick (4.5)
Blue Jays    - Edwin Encarnacion (4.4)
Red Sox      - Dustin Pedroia (4.3)
Cubs         - Alfonso Soriano (4.3)
White Sox    - Alex Rios (4.2)
Dodgers      - A.J. Ellis (4.1)
Mariners     - Kyle Seager (3.6)
Indians      - Carlos Santana (3.4)
Rockies      - Dexter Fowler (2.9)
Astros       - Jed Lowrie (2.5)

Teams' worst players based on fWAR.

Code:
Indians      - Casey Kotchman (-1.6)
Cubs         - Joe Mather (-1.6)
Red Sox      - Ryan Kalish (-1.5)
Tigers       - Ryan Raburn (-1.5)
Braves       - Eric Hinske/Tyler Pastornicky (-1.4)
Rangers      - Michael Young (-1.3)
Marlins      - Chris Coghlan (-1.2)
Royals       - Jeff Francoeur (-1.2)
Reds         - Wilson Valdez (-1.2)
Dodgers      - Dee Gordon (-1.1)
Orioles      - Brian Roberts (-1.1)
Giants       - Emmanuel Burriss (-1.0)
Mets         - Lucas Duda (-1.0)
Mariners     - Chone Figgins (-1.0)
Phillies     - Ryan Howard (-1.0)
Rays         - Hideki Matsui (-1.0)
Rockies      - Matt McBride (-0.9)
Nationals    - Xavier Nady (-0.9)
Astros       - Jimmy Paredes (-0.8)
White Sox    - Brent Morel (-0.7)
Twins        - Danny Valencia (-0.7)
Blue Jays    - Omar Vizquel/Eric Thames (-0.6)
Yankees      - Casey McGehee (-0.6)
Diamondbacks - Josh Bell (-0.5)
Pirates      - Nate McLouth (-0.5)
Brewers      - Brooks Conrad (-0.4)
Athletics    - Luke Hughes (-0.4)
Padres       - Nick Hundley/Jason Bartlett (-0.4)
Cardinals    - Tyler Greene (-0.3)
Angels       - Bobby Abreu (-0.2)
 

zulux21

Member
White Sox - Brent Morel (-0.7)

ah Brent Morel, your glove is nice but your bat is so bad lol
I really would have expected Philip Humber though lol. though I suppose despite his 6.44 era over 102 innings he did go 5-5

I wonder if the white sox bother trying him out again next year or just let him go and see if some other team wants him.
 
bored so I was looking at all time UZR numbers. (goes back to 2002). Minimum 4000 innings. (3 years of 162 gms, 9 inning play is about 4300). DRS doesn't have easily accessible numbers averaged out for one year of play, they are just cumulative I believe so i'll just look at UZR/150.

UZR/150 (ultimate zone rate per 150 games): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, per 150 defensive games.

Shortstop

(UZR/150)

Adam Everett 15.0
Brendan Ryan 12.4
J.J. Hardy 10.9

also interesting. Jeter has always faired well in Error Runs

(Error Runs (ErrR) – Does the player commit more or fewer errors compared with a league-average player at their position?).

Always positive numbers. He is below average turning the DP though and what really kills him is his range. Those are not very surprising conclusions though. Jeter is very smooth out in the field, excellent hands.

Second Base:

Chase Utley 13.6
Placido Polanco 10.5
Dustin Pedroia 9.8

Third Base:

Adrian Beltre 15.3
Evan Longoria and Pedro Feliz 14.9
Scott Rolen 14.2

First Base:

Doug Mientkiewicz 11.4
Travis Lee 9.2
Kevin Youkilis 7.4

even at age 33-36 (2002-2005) John Olerud is still close to the top at 6.3 UZR/150. (hall of famer)

Left Field:

Carl Crawford 13.0
Alfonso Soriano 12.9 (yes you read that right)
Moises Alou 8.5

DRS does not like Alfonso in LF so this could be a case of UZR having problems in Wrigley. UZR is much more accurate in the infield than the outfield because of the differences between all of the fields. DRS also does not agree with Alou, who also played for the cubs from 2002-2004 and the giants and mets after.

Right Field:

Ichiro Suzuki: 11.6
Austin Kearns: 11.3
Alex Rios: 10.2

Center Field:

Andruw Jones 19.0
Carlos Gomez 15.0
Michael Bourn 10.7

Even fat Andruw was godly. imagine if there were numbers back before 2002.

Anyway conclusion:

Mbwm4.jpg

Harper has a good UZR UZR/150 and DRS for a rookie.
 

alstein

Member
to be fair that game isn't nearly as badly called as that video makes it out to be. The marker on the screen is where the catcher catches the ball not where it crossed the plate so they were much closer then the marker is showing, but there were a number of bad calls in there regardless :p

I have nothing against the Giants- they're a pretty class group, but that was a bad call.

I do remember loving the Rick Ankiel HR in 2010. Kinda wish he was still around even if he sucked, I really think the Braves bench is going to do them in at some point.
 
Go O's/In Buck We Trust.

Funny aside, went out to watch the game with my dad last night and he told me about a friend of his who's a Reds fan. Seems he wants an O's/Reds rematch bad because he wants revenge for the '70 World Series. 42 years later and still salty. :)
 

Opiate

Member
Postseason predictions are silly, in my opinion. In a 7 game series, there's probably a 25-33% chance that the Astros could beat the Yankees, let alone 2 teams which are more evenly matched.

It's basically a toss up, from here on out. Whoever wins 3 (or now possibly 4) coin flips consecutively is your world series winner.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
Brought over from the other thread:

I think the allure of Dickey's win advantage is going to be too much for voters to ignore. I think Gio is a legitimate candidate as well TBH but he obviously won't win.

Kershaw really had a helluva lot of games he should have won that ended in NDs that I think will prevent him from winning it again. 5 games of 7+ IP where he gave up 1 run and 5 hits or less but received a ND.
I think Felix winning it a couple of years ago with a 13-12 record finally killed the stigma that wins really matter much. A pitcher can't control what the rest of his team does. Kershaw's pitching numbers are better in all the important categories, and I think that's what voters will look at.
 

Opiate

Member
Brought over from the other thread:

I think Felix winning it a couple of years ago with a 13-12 record finally killed the stigma that wins really matter much. A pitcher can't control what the rest of his team does. Kershaw's pitching numbers are better in all the important categories, and I think that's what voters will look at.

All the important categories? Dickey had more IP, less walks, more strikeouts, along with more wins and less losses. Kershaw would be a fine choice, but I think you're overstating his case a bit here. This isn't Felix 2010.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
All the important categories? Dickey had more IP, less walks, more strikeouts, along with more wins and less losses. Kershaw would be a fine choice, but I think you're overstating his case a bit here. This isn't Felix 2010.
Dickey finished with one more strikeout than Kershaw, so that's pretty much a wash. And yes, Dickey had more IP and less walks (which is amazing for a knuckleballer), but I think the categories Kershaw leads in carry more weight.

I'm not saying it's going to be a slam dunk, just that I think Kershaw has the inside track.
 

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
I'd probably pick dickey because of the innings lead and then lee/kershaw/hamels behind him.
 

Opiate

Member
Dickey finished with one more strikeout than Kershaw, so that's pretty much a wash. And yes, Dickey had more IP and less walks (which is amazing for a knuckleballer), but I think the categories Kershaw leads in carry more weight.

I'm not saying it's going to be a slam dunk, just that I think Kershaw has the inside track.

You mean with the voters? I definitely disagree. I think they're willing to overlook win totals in extreme cases -- Felix's closest ERA rival in 2010 pitched seventy five less innings than Felix did -- but not in cases like this where even the wonkiest of sabremetricians would call it a dead heat.

If the strikeouts are a wash, then surely xFIP is a wash too: Kershaw has 3.25, Dickey 3.27. Kershaw benefited significantly from the lowest BABIP of his career, which is lucky for him but not indicative of real skill. Again, I'm not saying Kershaw isn't in there, but he's not the obvious front runner to me even by sabremetric standards, and certainly not by voting standards, for which win/loss totals may have diminished in significance but are not completed obviated.
 

Opiate

Member
David Price was second to Felix Hernandez in balloting in 2010. Their comparisons were:

Felix Hernandez had a .45 better ERA
Felix Hernandez pitched 41 more innings.
Felix Hernandez struck out 44 more batters.
Felix Hernandez walked 9 less batters.
Felix Hernandez accrued 2.4 more WAR
Felix Hernandez had .7 better xFIP
Felix Hernandez had a .13 better WHIP.

All of those (save perhaps the walk total) are not just victories for Hernandez, but overwhelming and substantial victories. He bested Price in virtually every category I can look up, typically by very big margins, except for Win/Loss totals. By contrast, if the strike out totals are basically "a wash" for Dickey/Kershaw, then these are their comparisons:

Clayton Kershaw had a .2 Better ERA.
R.A. Dickey pitched 6 more innings.
R.A. Dickey walked 9 less batters.
Clayton Kershaw accrued .9 more WAR.
Strike outs are a wash (1 difference)
xFIP is a wash (.02 difference)
WHIP is a wash (.03 difference)

Again, this isn't an obvious choice to me even looking at this with comprehensive sabremetrics and ignoring wins/losses altogether. Given that, I'd give it to Dickey, and I strongly suspect the voters will, too.
 

Tobor

Member
Another post hoping for a beltway series, but screw the birds. Nats win it all to end this dream season!
 
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