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[Black Republican]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...etakes-lead-gop-race-cruz-makes-gains-n466651

NBC Nov 15-17th

Trump: 28% (+2)
Carson: 18% (-8)
Cruz: 18% (+8)
Rubio: 11%(+2)
Bush: 4% (-1)
Christie: 3%
Fiorina: 3% (-1)

(Last Month) NBC Oct 27-29
Trump: 26%
Carson: 26%
Cruz: 10%
Rubio: 9%
Bush: 5%
Fiorina: 4%

In the Republican primary race, the newest NBC News/SurveyMonkey online poll shows Donald Trump has the frontrunner spot to himself, with 28% support among Republican and independent voters who lean Republican. Support for Ben Carson, who was tied with Trump in last month's online poll, has fallen off by 8 points and the former neurosurgeon is now tied with Ted Cruz at 18%. Trailing not too far behind is Marco Rubio, at 11%. The next tier of candidates has a lot of catching up to do, with Jeb Bush at 4% and Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina each with 3%.

During the volatile primary season, the attention that is gained from being the lead candidate in the polls can be a mixed blessing. The media tends to shift its focus to those candidates leading the race - and that spotlight can seem especially harsh to those who are newer to the political scene. At the same time, rival candidates are quick to target any apparent or imagined flaw of those in the lead. This is what happened to Ben Carson during the last two weeks, as he came under scrutiny for biographical details in his memoir and criticism for his lack of foreign policy expertise.

Carson and the other Republican candidates still have more than two months before the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary to gain traction. Looking at a number of subgroups may offer some clues as to how the early contests could go. The NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll was conducted nationwide of 5,775 adults, including 2,440 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, which allows for us to look at key voting blocs.

Ben Carson is still the preferred candidate of 25% of white evangelicals, but Donald Trump (23%) and Ted Cruz (22%) have clearly eaten away at what used to be the main pillar of Carson support. Among those who identify as very conservative, Ted Cruz now has the highest level of support, with 40%, overtaking both Carson (15%) and Trump (28%).

 

[ElTorro]

Trump, Carson, and Cruz. The unholy Trinity of stoopid.

 

[Bowler]

How Rubio is in 4th in these polls is mind boggling, he is like the only fucking sain person running on the pub side

 

[Matt_]

Damn, Fiorina is done
I wonder if Jeb can recover at all

 

[Hammer24]

Yet still basically every betting site has Rubio as the odds favorite.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

GOP HQ

"The numbers are in sir... Trump, Carson and Cruz are the top three front runners"

"There has to be something we can do, we must still have time to re-direct the primary voters to someone more respectable..."

Old man looking at the computer screen

"I'm afraid that time has come and gone my friend."

 

[Raxus]

Glad Carson is looking more and more like a flash in the pan. That man is certifiable.

JEB! is fading fast.

 

[Sub_Level]

Trump, Carson, and Cruz. The unholy Trinity of stoopid.

Ted Cruz is extremely smart going by his bio.

He is evil and knows what image and message to send.

 

[Black Republican]

Damn, Fiorina is done
I wonder if Jeb can recover at all

that post debate bump never came again,

she must be

Yet still basically every betting site has Rubio as the odds favorite.

i think if its just between Cruz & Rubio, Rubio would barely overcome him

Spoiler

i still say Rubio

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Wish some would get the message already and give it up.

 

[Ihyll]

The three stooges

But not funny at all

 

[lednerg]

There's a crazy amount of Republicans who say they won't vote for Jeb no matter what.

http://www.umass.edu/poll/pdfs/20151116_Toplines.pdf

According to that poll, 56% of confirmed registered Republicans who are likely to vote in the primaries say they want nothing to do with the guy. Holy shit.

 

[Grover Cleveland]

It's over for Fiorina
Jeb on life support

 

[Herbs]

amazing. how does this compare to the last election?

when does the shift from "these are the crazy front runners, lalala Herman Cain, lalala" shift to "oh shit."

 

[DragonSworne]

I knew Carson numbers mimicked the flavor of the month candidates from last election. Trump is definitely winning the primaries. He has too much of a lead too late into the game.

Where is Nate Silver now?

 

[params7]

Surprised with Fiorina. She was supposed to be one of the outsiders at the top with Trump and Carson.

 

[lednerg]

I knew Carson numbers mimicked the flavor of the month candidates from last election. Trump is definitely winning the primaries. He has too much of a lead too late into the game.

Where is Nate Silver now?

Currently saying stuff like:

@NateSilver538 - About 25% of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump's getting about 25% of that 25% in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?​

 

[DragonSworne]

Currently saying stuff like:

@NateSilver538 - About 25% of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump's getting about 25% of that 25% in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?​

The guy is in denial. His hate for Trump is making him lose credibility.

 

[Hammer24]

i think if its just between Cruz & Rubio, Rubio would barely overcome him

Spoiler

i still say Rubio

Rubio needs to kick Jeb out to secure all Florida support (especially the ones on the fence between him and Jeb); and he has to make up ground in Iowa towards Cruz, who seems to have sewn up the evangelical vote there; if he wants to get into front runner status.

 

[Transistor]

As much as I hate Ben Carson, it boils my blood that an idiot like Ted Cruz is catching up with him

 

[Linkyn]

Time for Jeb 4.0

 

[ElTorro]

As much as I hate Ben Carson, it boils my blood that an idiot like Ted Cruz is catching up with him

I actually think that Cruz is the most unbearable of them all. He is such a smug liar.

 

[newjeruse]

Anyone But Cruz please.

 

[onipex]

amazing. how does this compare to the last election?

when does the shift from "these are the crazy front runners, lalala Herman Cain, lalala" shift to "oh shit."

For me its the New Hampsire primary.

 

[Black Republican]

Time for Jeb 4.0

was Jeb 2.0 worse than

Spoiler

DMC2.0?

damn

 

[lednerg]

The guy is in denial. His hate for Trump is making him lose credibility.

I wanna feel bad for the guy, but he's too proud to admit how much of a wildcard Trump is and that no mathematical model, no matter how well tuned, could reasonably be expected to account for him.

 

[RPGCrazied]

Rubio or Cruz for the nomination.

And is Jeb! now entering the kids table?

 

[linsivvi]

Trump, Carson, and Cruz. The unholy Trinity of stoopid.

Trump and Cruz are not stupid. I mean, they make dumb moves from time to time, but they are both very smart. They are doing exactly what is needed to appeal to dumb voters.

The real stupid is Jeb. When you have the establishment support, a gazillion dollars and a team of advisers that have won numerous elections and still barely surviving, you have to be a grade A moron.

 

[Future PhaZe]

now if the dems can just elect Bernie because there's no way a dem loses this election

 

[real_slime]

Ted Cruz disturbs me.

 

[freeofgreed]

God I hate Cruz so much. This guy litterally makes me sick to my stomache. I hate how much he's been rising recently. I'lll litterally take any other candidate on that list with open arms over him.

Spoiler

and I hate all the other candidates as well, that's how much I dislike Cruz.

 

[Christopher]

now if the dems can just elect Bernie because there's no way a dem loses this election

NO one is gojng to vote for Bernie outside a few people his last debate proved his joke characterness.

 

[outunderthestars]

How Rubio is in 4th in these polls is mind boggling, he is like the only fucking sain person running on the pub side

Once the moderates who are at the bottom drop out, someone is going to get a fairly large bump. I don't see Christie, Bush, and Forina supporters moving over to Trump or Carson.

 

[ElTorro]

Ted Cruz is extremely smart going by his bio.

He is evil and knows what image and message to send.

Trump and Cruz are not stupid. I mean, they make dumb moves from time to time, but they are both very smart. They are doing exactly what is needed to appeal to dumb voters.

I am certain that they are not stupid. I meant to say that they are the ones who (purposefully) say the stupidest things. Which makes Cruz in particular so unbearable.

 

[Transistor]

I actually think that Cruz is the most unbearable of them all. He is such a smug liar.

My boss worships Cruz like he's Jesus or something

 

[Cheebo]

NO one is gojng to vote for Bernie outside a few people his last debate proved his joke characterness.

Most Dems like Hillay better. She is up 30%+ The dem primary is long over. It's Hillay vs whatever crazy survives the GOP primary.

 

[Nokagi]

now if the dems can just elect Bernie because there's no way a dem loses this election

Dems better get their ass out to vote next year and not just think "oh we got this" cause the Republican turn out is going to be huge.

 

[Nozem]

Ted Cruz disturbs me.

For real. That guy is the face of evil.

 

[Hammer24]

I am certain that they are not stupid. I meant to say that they are the ones who (purposefully) say the stupidest things. Which makes Cruz in particular so unbearable.

Yep.
How would you judge a Rubio/Kasich ticket?

 

[Darksol]

I'm happy I'm getting off this continent before the damage can be done

 

[Briarios]

The guy is in denial. His hate for Trump is making him lose credibility.

Huh? What he's saying is exactly right. Someone like Trump would have no chance in general election. Primaries skew towards extremist voters, which tamps down for the main election. Plus, the current polling is going to shift a lot as more candidates drop out.

 

[outunderthestars]

Yep.
How would you judge a Rubio/Kasich ticket?

The same Kasich who wants a department of Jesus?

 

[Interfectum]

Currently saying stuff like:

@NateSilver538 - About 25% of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump's getting about 25% of that 25% in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?​

Nate Silver doubling down. Cant wait to see his blog post when Trump gets the nomination.

Trump has already made it past stage 2 of Silver's 6 Stages of Doom article.

 

[Kusagari]

I'm seriously starting to think Cruz will dark horse win this entire thing.

 

[Cybrwzrd]

For real. That guy is the face of evil.

I wouldn't call him the face of evil, but his face triggers a need to punch reaction out of me. His face is just too punchable.

 

[Hammer24]

The same Kasich who wants a department of Jesus?

I don´t deem Kasich a good guy, but Rubio needs help with Ohio.

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

I'm seriously starting to think Cruz will dark horse win this entire thing.

He makes decent people feel uncomfortable just looking at him. Nobody outside of the bubble could vote for that guy.

 

[Arkeband]

NO one is gojng to vote for Bernie outside a few people his last debate proved his joke characterness.

Yeah, Hillary's 9/11 invocation wasn't cartoonish or anything.

Let's try to rise above this level of discourse.

 

[DragonSworne]

Huh? What he's saying is exactly right. Someone like Trump would have no chance in general election. Primaries skew towards extremist voters, which tamps down for the main election. Plus, the current polling is going to shift a lot as more candidates drop out.

He's completely out of his mind if he thinks the Carson holdouts will go to someone like Rubio. Cruz maybe, but not Bush or Rubio. Trump is the safe bet at this point and anyone arguing against it is doing so without enough data or logic to back it up.

 

[deadlast]

Looking at these polls, I'm so glad I registered republican so I can vote against Cruz. He scares me the most. I couldn't live in a world controlled by Cruz.