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NBC GOP National poll: Trump leads, Cruz eats Carson, Jeb!: ¯\_()_/¯

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M

Makai

Member
Briarios said:
Huh? What he's saying is exactly right. Someone like Trump would have no chance in general election. Primaries skew towards extremist voters, which tamps down for the main election. Plus, the current polling is going to shift a lot as more candidates drop out.
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He rates Trump's chances of winning the nomination slightly higher than "Other." Nate is slowly backpedaling from saying Trump has no shot in the primary to saying he has no shot in the general.
 
S

sangreal

Member
Cruz is going to be much harder for trump to knock off than Carson was. The base loves everything that guy says

Cruz is hated in Washington though so he might benefit from some free oppo
 
E

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
Somebody should make a documentary on the history of the GOP to show how a once respectable party could end up with this. I'd really love to know.
 
L

Laevateinn

Member
Cruz is Canadian and can't be elected. I don't get why the party of birthers is even letting him entertain the idea that he will be the one to destroy us.
 
F

Fox318

Member
Fiorina was always done.

The only reason she got a bump was because some groups made a stink of her not being featured in one of the debates.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Bowler said:
How Rubio is in 4th in these polls is mind boggling, he is like the only fucking sain person running on the pub side
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It's only mind boggling if you haven't been paying attention to the Republican party. Do you hear the shit they're spewing? Of course they want a candidate like Trump.

outunderthestars said:
Once the moderates who are at the bottom drop out, someone is going to get a fairly large bump. I don't see Christie, Bush, and Forina supporters moving over to Trump or Carson.
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Why would you expect a large bump when the "moderate" candidates have such miniscule support? And what about the bump when Carson or Cruz or even Trump drop out? I doubt their supporters would go support someone like Rubio or Jeb.
 
L

lednerg

Member
I'm with Sam Seder in thinking that Trump doesn't actually want to be President. He has a grudge with Jeb! and wanted to fuck up his chances, but Trump accidentally managed to go far beyond that, mainly because the whole lineup is so Goddamn terrible. Being the President is hard work, and Trump's a lazy man, living the life of luxury his father gave to him. He doesn't want to be on call 24/7 to settle bullshit from the other side of the world. He wants to remain what he has become, a guy millions of adoring dumbshits applaud while he rambles on and on about nonsense at a podium.

Sam Seder thinks Trump will drop out, coming up with some kind of convenient excuse at the last minute before he can be nominated, but I don't see why that's even necessary. Trump has to know that he and his fellow GOP clown car inhabitants don't stand a chance against the Democratic candidates. He doesn't need to drop out; he'll never get the job and he knows it. He just needs to keep committing to what will be the most infamous and well-timed troll in history, his insanely stupid candidacy. That's going to cement his brand for fucking ever - which is the point. As much as I hate everything the guy says he stands for, he's placing the GOP directly into a spotlight they really don't want to be in. They can't argue against him because he is them, albeit a completely tactless version, who speaks to their base in a language they absolutely adore - a base who they are absolutely terrified of. I thank my lucky stars every day for this asshole.
 
F

Fuchsdh

Member
lednerg said:
I wanna feel bad for the guy, but he's too proud to admit how much of a wildcard Trump is and that no mathematical model, no matter how well tuned, could reasonably be expected to account for him.
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And that's his problem. He's been successful enough that he's drunk his own Kool-aid and fails to see that every model cannot fully capture reality. The world doesn't work according to tidy numbers.

Fox318 said:
Fiorina was always done.

The only reason she got a bump was because some groups made a stink of her not being featured in one of the debates.
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She also made up all those lies about Planned Parenthood. That craziness was apparently good for about a month of polls and now she's sunk again.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
Cruz is an evil genius. I'd still put my money on him over Trump. If Cruz keeps rising, we'll see if those two really have a Ride Or Die, like some think. If they're actually competing, Trump will attack Cruz.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Veritigo_X said:
Why would you expect a large bump when the "moderate" candidates have such miniscule support? And what about the bump when Carson or Cruz or even Trump drop out? I doubt their supporters would go support someone like Rubio or Jeb.
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After Walker dropped out, Colbert made a great joke in his Hungry for Power Games sketch that's applicable here:
The other candidates will now get to fight for his less than one half of 1% of supporters! What a bounty! Yesss!

The other candidates don't amount to much. One figure I keep an eye on:
Bush+Kasich+Rubio+Christie+Fiorina

Add those all up, and it still isn't enough.
 
L

Laevateinn

Member
ryseing said:
I hate Cruz, but he is a natural born citizen thanks to his father.
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I don't give a shit about the natural born citizenship clause but Cruz has much less claim to it than Obama and his base are the people who flipped out about birtherism for so long. Cruz' father didn't become a US citizen until 2005 so Cruz isn't a naturally born citizen through his father. Like Obama, he gets his citizenship through his mother except, unlike Obama, Cruz was born in a foreign country (Canada). Cruz and his supporters should fuck off and keep their destruction of this country limited to the Senate.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Vagabundo said:
Talk of Nate Silver brought me to this, which is an interesting view of Trumps potential obstacles:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
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Should be noted that that article is over 3 months old and some of the stuff doesn't apply anymore. He even says in that article that by November voters will start looking into other candidates...and that hasn't happened. There are still obstacles for Trump but Nate's been saying for months that this Trump "surge" will be over soon and he's been proven wrong time after time.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
I'm still willing to give Silver a bit more of a benefit of the doubt, given his track record. The things he's been saying (early polling is unreliable, Trump win is unlikely because he doesn't fit the mold) are true. And he's made a statement about what criteria would have to be met before he started calling Trump "the frontrunner." If he sees Trump is still leading into December, I fully expect him to start talking about Trump like he's got a serious chance of winning. If he didn't do that, then I'd think Silver had lost it.
 
Interfectum

Interfectum

Member
EskimoJoe said:
I'm still willing to give Silver a bit more of a benefit of the doubt, given his track record. The things he's been saying (early polling is unreliable, Trump win is unlikely because he doesn't fit the mold) are true. And he's made a statement about what criteria would have to be met before he started calling Trump "the frontrunner." If he sees Trump is still leading into December, I fully expect him to start talking about Trump like he's got a serious chance of winning. If he didn't do that, then I'd think Silver had lost it.
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Well he's got 10 days to come to terms with it.
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
Laevateinn said:
Cruz is Canadian and can't be elected. I don't get why the party of birthers is even letting him entertain the idea that he will be the one to destroy us.
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Screenshot-22.png
 
V

Vagabundo

Member
Veritigo_X said:
Should be noted that that article is over 3 months old and some of the stuff doesn't apply anymore. He even says in that article that by November voters will start looking into other candidates...and that hasn't happened. There are still obstacles for Trump but Nate's been saying for months that this Trump "surge" will be over soon and he's been proven wrong time after time.
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Sorry should have posted where I got th elink that has a little more updated:

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): So, my theory of the case is still contained in the “Six Stages Of Doom” article I wrote about Trump in August. That suggests that it’s still very early. Trump has perhaps survived Stage 1, “Free-for-all.” It seems clear that his success in the polls is not ​purely a result of media coverage — although media coverage plays a very important part of it, as we can discuss later on. But we haven’t really entered Stage 2 yet, which is “heightened scrutiny.” That’s when voters start to pay more attention to the race and polls start to measure likely voters instead of all Republican-ish adults.

It’s interesting that Trump’s numbers were rattled a bit after each of the first two debates, for instance, since that’s a time when the candidates were on a more level playing field.

tl;dr: Sure, his chances look a little better than they did a month or so ago. But I’m not sure anything all that fundamental has changed, and the fundamentals would imply his odds of winning the nomination are still pretty darn low.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-doomed-andor-invincible/

In his opinion Trumps odd double after each stage, so probably in the double digits according to him.

My own view is that in the end Trump will have a 50/50 at getting the nomination. We'd really have to see how big the Anti-Trump crowd is at the end of it all, once that pack shakes out a little.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
TheLostBigBoss said:
maybe even a hoodie?
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I even had the gif all ready to post.

x0BpVy.gif


Vagabundo said:
Sorry should have posted where I got th elink that has a little more updated:



http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-doomed-andor-invincible/

In his opinion Trumps odd double after each stage, so probably in the double digits according to him.

My own view is that in the end Trump will have a 50/50 at getting the nomination. We'd really have to see how big the Anti-Trump crowd is at the end of it all, once that pack shakes out a little.
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Ah, cool. Nice that he's going back to his older articles. There's still a lot that Nate can't cover in his statistical model in regards to Trump. At this point he's flying blind like everyone else so his opinion isn't worth any more than other pundits. I'll still trust his statistical model once we're in the GE.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Trump basically went cray cray about Carson and told the world fiorina interrupts too much and he gained strength. Lol.

When do the betting markets start to capture this?
 
M

Makai

Member
Vagabundo said:
Talk of Nate Silver brought me to this, which is an interesting view of Trumps potential obstacles:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
Click to expand...
There’s some evidence that Trump is over-performing among “low-information voters.” By November, their ranks will decrease: They’ll either have become more informed, or they’ll be screened out by pollsters because they aren’t likely to vote.
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Well, here we are. And Trump's high as ever.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
Interfectum said:
Well he's got 10 days to come to terms with it.
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Well, I don't think the idea is that December is when a switch flips and suddenly polls matter. What he's said is that Thanksgiving is the inflection point where they slowly start being reliable. But yeah, if Trump lasts another two weeks as he is (which doesn't seem farfetched) I'd expect to see Nate start to relent.
 
S

SyNapSe

Member
Y2Kev said:
Trump basically went cray cray about Carson and told the world fiorina interrupts too much and he gained strength. Lol.

When do the betting markets start to capture this?
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Trump went down 2 points. How is that gaining strength?
Carson stepped into the spotlight and got exposed
 
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