Basileus777
Member
The biggest threat to Trump may actually be Cruz as he is already siphoning Carson's supporters and is a candidate that could actually appeal to Trump's base.
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NBC GOP National poll: Trump leads, Cruz eats Carson, Jeb!: ¯\_()_/¯
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Kurt Angle
Member
imagine if any of these became our president
shivers
shivers
ChronotriggerJM
Member
Almost every libertarian I know has no clue as to what they're voting for. The few I work with hate Obama/hilary, religion, the mention of gun regulation, taxes, and people against marijuana. I think the modern libertarian message has become a bit garbled.
googleplex
Member
It's not garbled at all. The bases for libertarianism is "Fuck you, I got mine."
The majority of the US is on Hillary's side of these issues, no?
Trump in general would lead to RECORD numbers of lapsed republicans and moderates voting Democrat IMO. It would be a worse beating than Romney got from Obama.
Kurt Angle
Member
you don't know how many people in the south are bat shit insane like trump
ChronotriggerJM
Member
Definitely. But they never seem to continue the line of thought. My libertarian friend was bitching about taxes the other day, saying it's un-constitutional to collect anything from it's citizens. So I ask him about his thoughts about ISIS, and he's in favor of increasing funding on our Military >_>. Then roads, public schools, etc etc. He want's government things, but doesn't feel he should have to pay for them. But taxing the rich is BS too.
So I ask him who's paying for the military and he gives me some garbled BS. He thinks it's bullshit that anyone should be after "his guns" and that open carry should be the right everywhere. So I ask him about allowing the largest cities with gang activity to open carry, and all of a sudden, that's not okay, because it's different. Same with allowing Muslims to open carry.
I mean the Libertarian message, at least to those near me, has gotten so pick and choose.
Nowhere near enough to make Trump the president.
The south is the south. Democrats don't win the south anyway.
People who say Trump will beat Hillary are more or less arguing that more than half of America is either deeply racist or deeply sexist.
That argument seems to do all right among specifically Republican primary voters. I don't think much of it among the entire American populace.
It's because Trump and Carson aren't actually running for president. Neither really has an infrastructure and one is on a book tour right now.
I think the idea is it has to be someone with political experience at the end of the day, and most people tend to think Cruz is too nutty to ultimately win.
I'm on PredictIt and have Rubio at 27 cents a share from way back when and cruz at 8 cents a share.
I think Cruz is a real threat for the anti-establishment votes to run to and get behind a guy who is a politician and can actually get support.
I think the entire republican party is going full speed with Rubio because Trump/Carson/Cruz is a landslide victory for Dems.
Actually Trump is the only one with any ground game right now.
I know how insane it sounds, but it's true.
Rubio thinks his campaign is UBER and can be run without ground game. (He's literally said this) Meanwhile Trump is hiring guys and getting volunteers like crazy. He's got Santorum's Iowa guy running his strategy in that state.
Basileus777
Member
Trump has been building the infrastructure, it's actually Rubio that's lagging behind there.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
When Trump is actually spending millions a day on his campaign, that's when I'll believe it. Right now it seems like whatever small amount he's spending he would easily make back with all the book sales and merchandise.
Carson is clearly on the way down though. He's fading in Iowa and national polling averages.
Carson is clearly on the way down though. He's fading in Iowa and national polling averages.
Sora the Cat
Member
Wait, there is a large group of people in the USA that are actually going to vote for that Trump guy? It just seems crazy to me, watching it from the outside. I thought this guy campaign was just a joke every time he came up on TV.
Pd: Yes, I don't follow american politics.
Pd: Yes, I don't follow american politics.
Secretly, this is because Rubio doesn't really have any money.
By the October filing date Rubio had raised $14.6 million (plus $4 million from his Senate war chest) and spent $7.7 million, leaving him $10 million on hand. For comparison's sake, Jeb raised $24 million, Hillary raised $77.5 million and Bernie Sanders raised $41.5 million.
Rubio's doing better in outside funding, with $17.3 million in his SuperPAC and another $15 million from some other source (probably also related to his Senate campaign), but that money is not accessible to his campaign staff. He can't use it to set up offices or hire volunteers.
Basically, Jeb's deliberate effort to cut off Rubio's funding sources early in the campaign worked. If you look only at internal funds, which is what he needs to keep running, his budget is a lot closer to Rand Paul's than Jeb Bush's. He probably just can't afford to run a strong ground game right now.
(http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016-campaign-money-race.html?_r=0)
Which is why I don't think he'll be able to take it. Even if Jeb drops and Rubio vacuums up his funding, it'll be too late to build the needed infrastructure to compete with the likes of Trump, who is saving an insane amount of money on advertising due to the press covering the shit out of everything he says.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Didn't Rubio get two billionaire donors on board recently? Did they publicize those donors a lot because they need to look like they got money?
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Sanders has raised 41 million!?
That's fucking impressive
That's fucking impressive
Basically, yes.
But also, those donors are really only useful for setting up superPACs. Paul Singer can still only give $2,600 to Rubio directly, no matter how rich he is.
One of the lessons of the superPAC age is that internal campaign cash is just a lot more valuable than external cash, both directly (campaigns are guaranteed the best ad rates, for example, while superPACs aren't) and indirectly (because superPACs can't hire volunteers for your rallies or pay your filing fees).
Yellowtail
Member
I think I read somewhere that Singer's endorsement is worth about $3 million all together from his bundler network. But that's still peanuts.
To put things in perspective: George W. Bush raised $69 million in 1999, mostly from an extensive bundler network that collected donations capped at $1000. Considering the individual campaign limit is now $2700, that's equivalent to $186 million (!!!) today. Jeb and Rubio will be lucky to raise $40 million this year in hard money. The majority of the donor class are hedging their bets and sitting this out so far, but they're waiting too long. When Trump sweeps IA and NH it will be too late.
I find it fascinating how reticent the donor class is to getting behind Rubio though. There might be dirt on him, but I think the more likely reason is that the old moneyed white GOP elites are deeply sceptical and reluctant at the prospect of coalescing behind a callow second generation Latino immigrant. And one that can't manage his finances at that. They like someone that went to their schools, mixes in their circles - is basically one of them like the Bushes and Romney. It'll be amusing if those sort of prejudices prevent them from stopping Trump's existential threat.
Boombloxer
Member
And then you woke up.
How many polls do you need to see that Trump is a serious thing?
I think some of you are still in denial it can actually happen (some of you even think he is not running for real) But I see him extremely focused and disciplined, I don't have any doubt that he is not playing around or trying to promote himself, he wants this.
The fact that he has that image of running the campaign with his own resources (that I guess is something that Republicans really appreciate), combined with a press that can't get enough of him will dwarf anything that the established GOP can throw at him. He has a HUGE advantage over any other candidate for being the only one that with those cualities.
I think some of you are still in denial it can actually happen (some of you even think he is not running for real) But I see him extremely focused and disciplined, I don't have any doubt that he is not playing around or trying to promote himself, he wants this.
The fact that he has that image of running the campaign with his own resources (that I guess is something that Republicans really appreciate), combined with a press that can't get enough of him will dwarf anything that the established GOP can throw at him. He has a HUGE advantage over any other candidate for being the only one that with those cualities.
Trump is already saying Hillary has no strength or stamina and wouldn't make a strong president.
In contrast, Trump would be so strong on the military, strong on the boarders, strong on refugees, strong against ISIS, strong on trade and strong but firm on illegal immigrants that will be sent back to their country humanly.
Aaron Strife
Banned
This is completely at odds with what a majority of the country thinks.
Yellowtail
Member
Trump attacking Hillary for being weak only increases my belief he's a Clinton double agent.
There's a thousand vulnerabilities you can hammer Hillary with, but questioning her strength isn't one of them. Even the GOP base doesn't buy that. She's been the Lady Macbeth of the Democratic Party for the past 25 years.
teruterubozu
Member
Wow, so the Clinton double-agent thing is still a valid conspiracy theory?
You're a loser for calling the Trump supporters and the Republican party as extremists and racists.
We're going to win, and we are going to Make America Great Again !, "bigger, better and stronger than before" !!!
Basileus777
Member
No, not really. I mean it's pretty obvious that Trump is an opportunist and provocateur saying shit he probably doesn't believe to draw attention to himself, but there's no reason to believe the Clintons or any Democrats have anything to do with it.
John Dunbar
correct about everything
any chance trump will just keep saying crazier and crazier things to see how much it takes to break the batshit back of the gop because he doesn't actually want to be the nominee but is starting to worry they just might pick him?
Yellowtail
Member
John Kasich's campaign manager on Twitter today:
I don't think he's an actual double agent. I think Bill probably goaded him into the race and Trump did it initially as a bit of fun to get headlines, and now he's tasted success is actually committed to winning. But he knows exactly what the base wants to hear and is almost certainly enjoying causing a schism within the party.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
He did sorta walk back from the Muslim Database Nazi Plan, but I don't honestly know if he can go further then that.
i just don't see how he can make it without a legit campaign financing arm this day and age. once the PAC money starts rolling in voters will follow, as the last GOP primary has shown. i know the similarities between this primary and the last aren't exactly 1:1 but look at Romney, pretty much had all the makings of failure: Massachusetts gov, 'architect of obamacare', visage of an establishment politican... pretty much the antithesis of "the base", fresh off teabag mania, but he was still able to steamroll his way to the nom with relative ease. i don't see how rubio won't do the same when the rubber hits the pavement
though this is kind of uncharted territory in politics, so it's not too far out there to suggest things could go the other way. but i don't think anybody in the prediction markets is putting smart money on trump right now
I get this, but I think you are underestimating how special is Trump as a candidate, the conventional thinking doesn't work much against him. I feel he would have annihilated Romney if he had run against him in a similar climate like the actual one.
Are we still talking of the country where the Congress and Senate have a republican majority?
Battersea Power Station
Member
Of all the factors that have lead to this, overall party affiliation percentages is the least relevant.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Take a look at a map of America with state reps taken into account. The country is predominantly red.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
You're talking about races where turnout is often 30% at best.
Trump would win the plain states and parts of the South but that would be it. He'd get slaughtered everywhere else.
Mid-Term elections == Presidential Elections.
If the turnout for mid terms was the norm for everything, there wouldn't have been a Democrat in high office since the QoP adopted the Southern strategy..
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ns-democratic-our-elections-dont-necessarily/
People don't vote, but they will if they think a racist tyrant is coming to deport them or their families and make the rich richer.
Population in those states vary. California has more people than the bottom 20 states(population wise) combined. Granted Texas and Florida do a lot on the republican side, although I assume gerrymandering has a lot to do with that
So there are basically two scenarios here:
- either the polling methods are deeply flawed, not accounting for recent shifts in populace/behavior/electorate etc.
- people being polled are simply lying, saying they´d vote Trump/Carson simply to vent frustrations, without having the actual intent ta really elect them
StopMakingSense
Member
The way the seats are set up, Republicans can lose the total votes for the House in a given year (like 2012) and still maintain a majority.
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